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☆ LinkedIn's top economist explains the AI trend that could mark a tipping point - and the under-the-radar labor market shifts unfolding now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

In an interview with Insider, LinkedIn's head of macroeconomics broke down labor market trends and AI. LinkedIn data shows the number of jobs on the site mentioning ChatGPT jumped by 51% from 2021 to 2022. The key tipping point to watch will be how soon AI can seep into jobs outside of the technology sector. The economist also pointed out that employers are pulling back on existing remote work, and hiring for new remote jobs is slowing down compared to non-remote jobs. Last month, nearly 1 in 9 US job postings on LinkedIn offered remote work, down from 1 in 5 offered in March 2022.

☆ Morning Bid: Euro(pe) is on a roll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookThe euro emerged as the clearest winner of slowing U.S. inflation and a watchful Fed. The common currency climbed 0.7% on Wednesday and was still going at $1.10 in the Asian morning. It is up seven weeks in a row - the longest winning streak since the latter stages of 2020 when the dollar was falling and global markets were in a stimulus-soaked euphoria. The thinking goes that inflation will keep Europe's central bankers more hawkish than their U.S. counterparts, although perhaps not by much. Earnings this week could test the dollar's downtrend as markets look for signals on consumer behaviour and signs of tightening credit.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of key US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the U.S. central bank should be patient about raising interest rates in the face of recent banking sector stress.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of key U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Five, ten, twenty, fifty and one hundred dollar bills spread outThe U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. "Powell has said numerous times he wants to see a downtrend in underlying inflation, but the data's not providing that yet. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near.

☆ Charles Schwab highlights a part of the stock market that will outperform if interest rates stay high
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's an area of the stock market that will outperform amid higher interest rates, Charles Schwab said. Their outperformance could continue if interest rates stay high, Charles Schwab said. That's thanks to rising short-term interest rates, with central bankers hiking rates over 1,700% in the past year to control inflation. Markets initially raised the odds that the bank's failure would spur the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year. But central bankers have signaled the opposite, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell warning that interest rates would stay elevated through the rest of the year.

☆ The Fed won't be able to bring inflation down to its target, and Americans will have to live with high prices for years, BlackRock says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

BlackRock strategists expect the Fed will stop its rate-hiking cycle without getting inflation to its 2% target. That means Americans will have to live with high prices for years to come, they said. Strategists from the world's largest asset manager said inflation has sparked a cost-of-living crisis, and the Fed has responded with all-out approach to cool prices. "We think the 'politics of inflation' narrative is on the cusp of changing," strategists wrote in a note Monday. And Nobel economist Paul Krugman, for his part, said the job market is the best its been in decades, and the Fed won't need high unemployment to bring down inflation.

However, confusing the picture core inflation accelerated to 8.0% in March from February's 7.8%, the fastest pace since 1999. Nicholas Mapa, an economist at ING bank, said a sustained downtrend in inflation could make the BSP consider hitting the pause button on its most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle for years. "Today's inflation reading could be one additional data point that could convince Governor Medalla that inflation is finally moderating," Mapa told Reuters. "We expect inflation to moderate further in April which could open up the door for a BSP pause at the May meeting." Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, who is one of the seven members of the central bank's policy making monetary board, said on Tuesday, the central bank has probably done enough to address inflation.

☆ The S&P 500 needs a broader base of support if its upswing is going to last
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500, thanks to the outperformance of a small group of technology stocks, enters the second quarter on an upswing. The message is clear: for the moment, the majority of the market returns are being generated by large-cap tech stocks. Back in early February, 75% of the S & P 500 stocks were above their 200-day moving average. Bulls, of course, are hopeful that the banking crisis will be the ultimate blessing in disguise, forcing the Fed to finally slow its rate-hiking campaign, now that it has finally broke something and created a regional banking crisis. "A bullish breakaway hasn't materialized, and the S & P 500 is back in its base," Ari Wald, senior analyst at Oppenheimer, noted over the weekend.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Wells Fargo's Paul Christopher
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Wells Fargo's Paul ChristopherPaul Christopher, head of global impact strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss downside risks ahead, downtrend signs in inflation, and global tech companies making gains off a weaker dollar.

☆ Quality characteristics in tech remain relevant for investors, says Wells Fargo's Paul Christopher
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailQuality characteristics in tech remain relevant for investors, says Wells Fargo's Paul ChristopherPaul Christopher, head of global impact strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss downside risks ahead, downtrend signs in inflation, and global tech companies making gains off a weaker dollar.

☆ China's industrial profits slump deepens on soft demand, high costs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The slump in Chinese industrial firms' profits deepened in the first two months of 2023, weighed by lacklustre demand and stubbornly high costs as the world's second-largest economy struggled to fully shake the long-term effects of Covid. NBS statistician Sun Xiao attributed the decline to still soft demand despite an uptick in industrial output, according to a statement on the bureau's website. "Currently, international commodity prices remain at high levels and overseas demand is still on a downtrend," Zhou wrote. "Industrial and manufacturing departments still need to offer policy support, alleviating fiscal, cost and financing pressures and stabilizing firm confidence." Foreign firms posted a 35.7% decline in profits, while private-sector firms saw their profits down 19.9%, according to a breakdown of the 887.21 billion yuan ($128.92 billion) profits.

☆ Barclays bets the tech rally will falter, lays out an options strategy to play it
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

With the comeback in technology stocks likely to fade, Barclays says it's time for investors to consider an options strategy that would capitalize on their decline. Investors in recent weeks have flocked to tech stocks — particularly megacaps — as a safe haven amid the banking turmoil rattling markets. Given this backdrop, Barclays recommends fading this rally and betting that tech stocks will go down, using the Invesco QQQ Trust — which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index. The put spread, however, caps the upside of the trade, because if tech stocks fall substantially, the second put will get exercised. "Specifically, we suggest buying QQQ May23 305/260 put spreads ... with a max payout ratio of 4.9:1," Gupta said.

☆ 2 top Wall Street strategists are warning that stocks are susceptible to more declines in March as investors anticipate weaker earnings and the Fed hurls the economy into recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Wilson sees a deterioration in earnings expectations developing in March. Two of Wall Street's most widely-followed strategist are warning that the month of March could see the unraveling of the stock market. For Wilson's part, he sees forward earnings expectations continuing to deteriorate despite recent optimism, and thinks that investors will start getting ahead of this turn sometime this month. Stocks tend to figure it out a month early and trade lower and this cycle has illustrated that pattern perfectly. Morgan StanleyWilson has also pointed out in recent notes that stocks remain historically overvalued relative to where bond yields are.

☆ UK economy rebounds with stronger-than-expected January GDP print
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON — The U.K. economy grew by 0.3% in January, official figures showed on Friday, exceeding expectations as it continues to fend off what economists see as an inevitable recession. The U.K. economy showed no growth in the final quarter of 2022 to narrowly avoid a recession — commonly defined as two quarters of negative growth — but shrunk by 0.5% in December. The ONS said Friday that monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.2% below its pre-pandemic levels. Despite the better-than-expected January print, economists still broadly believe activity is on a downward trajectory, as high inflation eats into household incomes and business activity. While extending energy support will provide some relief to struggling households, aggressive tax rises would risk eliminating any lingering momentum from the economy," Thiru said.

☆ Bitcoin falls to its lowest price in weeks as crypto markets tumble amid Silvergate troubles
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The price of bitcoin hit a two-week low as the industry's crucial banking partner faces financial troubles. Silvergate has experienced a steep downtrend in deposits, along with a 95% plunge in share price over the past year. The price of bitcoin hit a two-week low early Friday and experienced its largest one-hour price drop since the blowup of bankrupt exchange FTX in November. Many large digital asset exchanges work with Silvergate for transactions between entities, and a dent in those relationships could impact industry liquidity. Silvergate was entangled in a number of ailing firms such as FTX, resulting in a massive decline in deposits at the bank amid broader crypto market contagion.

☆ Morgan Stanley's top stock strategist Mike Wilson says the bear market could resume in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Mike Wilson, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note to clients on Monday that the S & P 500 was on the verge of falling back into a bear market. "With the equity market showing signs of exhaustion after the last Fed meeting, the S & P 500 is at critical technical support. Given our view on earnings, March is a high risk month for the bear market to resume," Wilson said. The S & P 500 fell into a bear market — or 20% below its record high — last year amid a rapid rise in interest rates. The stock market then had its worst week of the year, with the S & P 500 falling 2.67%.

☆ Johnson: We're seeing a downtrend reversal on all the major averages
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJohnson: We're seeing a downtrend reversal on all the major averagesPiper Sandler's Craig Johnson discusses his forecast for the markets.

☆ Health care notches record 8-week downtrend, but is it time to buy the dip?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHealth care notches record 8-week downtrend, but is it time to buy the dip? Carter Worth of Worth Charting on whether health care is poised for a bounce. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Courtney Garcia, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.

☆ Market sentiment has gotten extremely greedy, making for a fragile tape, says Katie Stockton
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket sentiment has gotten extremely greedy, making for a fragile tape, says Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss key technical signals, chart breakouts failing to impact longer-term gauges, and what's needed to reverse the downtrend.

☆ London's FTSE 100 muted as bank stocks fall; weaker pound limits losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) fell 0.1%, hovering near a record high. British lender Barclays (BARC.L) slid 8.3% to the bottom of the FTSE 100 and was set to post its biggest drop in nearly a year after reporting a 14% slump in full-year profit. The FTSE 350 banking index (.FTNMX301010) fell 1.9%, on track for its biggest one-day drop in more than two months. The pound edged lower after data showed British consumer price inflation fell more than expected in January and there were also drops in underlying measures of inflation that are being closely watched by the Bank of England. The FTSE 100 has had a stellar start to the year boosted by upbeat corporate earnings, rising more than 6% so far this year.

☆ A 29-year-old stock trader who returned 132% in 2022 and remained profitable for 4 straight years shares his top 6 tips for profiting no matter what the market conditions are
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

He'll also set a sell-stop order once a stock's price reaches his breakeven price to reduce risk. It was an impressive run considering the stock market had its worst year since 2008. "If you think this company is going to come out with a great earnings report while the stock price is slipping, you might be encouraged to hold on a little longer. 6 takeaway tips from Ryan's approach to tradingLearning how to lose is probably the most important trading tip, Ryan said. If a stock's price is plunging rapidly, the order may not get filled in time.

With a majority of S & P 500 companies having posted their quarterly results, investors' focus will turn toward inflation and the consumer price index reading in the upcoming week. The three major indexes are on pace to end the week down, with the S & P 500 poised to post its worst performance since December. Sharp declines for Alphabet , which is off by more than 9% this week, dragged the tech-heavy index. January's consumer price index With the latest Powell speech in the books, investors are now looking ahead to the consumer price index for insight into the pace of inflation. "Retail sales and CPI is really driven by the consumer, and a lot of eyes are on how the consumer doing," Bruno said.

☆ Technology stocks are poised to be the best performing sector this year after a brutal 2022, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Technology stocks are poised to be the best performing sector in 2023 after a brutal 2022, according to Fundstrat. Also helping the technology sector is an improving technical outlook after it reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Also boosting the case for owning technology stocks is an increase in investor skepticism towards the sectors year-to-date rally, as short interest in the space continues to increase. According to data from FactSet, the median short interest as a percentage of float has increased to 4% over the past few weeks, even as short interest fell for the broader market. Improving technicals are also increasing the chance that technology stocks will outperform in 2023, according to the note.

☆ Here are 3 obstacles facing crypto in 2023 as the market looks to move on from the FTX disaster
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Crypto markets have erased losses since FTX's fallout last year, but new potential headwinds are looming. Insider asked four crypto execs about the biggest roadblocks facing the industry in 2023. For now, crypto markets are continuing to claw back losses since FTX's liquidity crisis, with the industry regaining a $1 trillion market cap. "I'm cautiously optimistic about the crypto markets this year," Timothy Shan, COO at decentralized exchange Dexalot, said. Regulation, inflation, and more crypto contagionAfter the fallout of major players, the biggest question on everyone's mind seems to be how regulation will unfold this year.

☆ Bears sent running as stock market breaks downtrend and passes key fundamental tests
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P gained another 1.6% last week even after slipping back 1% Friday. Market technicals strengthening Along the way, the technical characteristics of the market are winning converts for the bullish cause. Surely at the S & P 500 level, above 18-times forward profit estimates is a demanding bogey implying so-so returns. The equal-weight S & P is closer to the longer-term average at 16, and mid-cap stocks still modestly valued compared their history. The S & P 500 is compounding so far in 2023 at a 120% annualized rate of return so yeah, expect some give-back and gut-checking.

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