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Since then, the combined net long hit an all-time high near 840,000 futures and options contracts in April 2022. In the July contracts, soybeans and soymeal fell 5%, corn and soyoil shed around 6% and CBOT wheat plunged 8%. The only period in which funds were more bearish toward CBOT wheat was between July 2016 and January 2018. ADDITIONAL PRESSUREThe downturn continued for corn and wheat futures between Wednesday and Friday, likely increasing bears’ recent momentum in the grains. Most-active CBOT wheat fell nearly 3% over the last three sessions and featured a dip on Friday to the lowest levels since July 2021.

☆ China investment consensus cracks as politics fuel fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

It is unlikely to be resolved quickly even if the markets keep rallying and China economy keeps global growth ticking. Data paints a murky picture, but supports brokers' analysis that the bid from long-only money managers is absent. Allocation analysis from data firm EPFR shows a broad downtrend, especially to U.S.-domiciled China funds. EPFR figures show allocation to China funds outside the U.S. has increased for two years and mainland markets' recent performance has also been encouraging. "Our reservations about China's long-term investment prospects are based on our outlook for returns to capital."

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices have fallen back after a brief spike triggered by the surprise production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+ on April 2. ROUTING THE BEARSIf one of the objectives for Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies was to drive bearish hedge funds out of the oil market, it seems to have succeeded. Following the cut, however, the number of short positions was reduced further to just 78 million barrels by April 11, near to its post-2010 low of just 65 million. In the past, Saudi Arabia's oil minister has described surprise production cuts intended to discourage hedge fund short selling as "ouching". Related columns:- Oil prices stall as short-covering rally is completed (April 17, 2023)- Surprise, squeezing the shorts, and revealed preferences (April 3, 2023)- Oil market has fully absorbed impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (March 9, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

While Charles Schwab shares are up about 20% from their March low, boutique equity research firm Redburn isn't so sure the recovery is warranted. Analyst Charles Bendit downgraded Charles Schwab to sell from neutral on Thursday. Schwab shares are off some 38% from this year's high reached in early January. SCHW YTD mountain Charles Schwab stock To be sure, several prominent investors, including Oakmark Funds' Bill Nygren, are among many who have opted to buy the dip in Schwab. "Potential re-regulation of midsize banks in the wake of the regional banking crisis might impact Schwab," Bendit said.

Investors may see rate cuts in the Fed's near future, part of a recession-breeds-accommodation view of the world, but "the labor market just seems very, very strong. The bulk of Fed policymakers as of March felt one more rate increase, which would raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to a range between 5.00% and 5.25%, was all that would be needed. Some policymakers and analysts worry it is those final steps that could push the economy into a recession. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsLIMIT GUIDANCEGiven how inflation and the economy are behaving, Bullard said, the fewer promises made the better. Recession forecasts "are coming from models that put too much weight on the idea that interest rates went up quickly," Bullard said.

☆ UK economy flat in February as strikes and inflation bite — and the IMF delivers reality check
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON — The U.K. economy flatlined in February as widespread industrial action and persistently high inflation stymied activity. Large-scale strike action has been carried out in recent months by teachers, doctors, civil servants and rail workers, among others — members of the sectors that were the largest contributors to the fall in February services output. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility no longer expects the U.K. economy to enter a technical recession in 2023 — defined as two consecutive quarters of contractions. "Industrial strike action was the primary root cause of stagnating growth in the U.K. over the month. Much of the population also remains mired in a cost-of-living crisis, as inflation continues to vastly outpace wage growth, exacerbating the threat of further industrial action.

☆ Apple to open first stores in India next week underscoring CEO Tim Cook's bullish view on the country
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Arjun Kharpal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A view of Apple's first company-owned store in India to be launched inside the Jio World Drive mall at Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) in Mumbai. Apple is set to open its first physical stores in India next week, highlighting the country's importance to the U.S. tech firm's future in iPhone sales and manufacturing,The Cupertino giant will open a store in Mumbai on Apr. Apple CEO Tim Cook may travel to India to open the stores, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Apple is "putting a significant amount of energy" in India, Cook stressed at the time. The manufacturing push in India comes as Apple is looking to reduce its reliance on China, where it currently makes the bulk of its iPhones.

☆ This A.I.-powered lending stock could be in trouble as macro environment worsens, JPMorgan warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Upstart shares will likely struggle as the environment for loans worsens, according to JPMorgan. Analyst Reginald Smith initiated coverage of the lending stock at underweight. Smith said the company benefited from pandemic stimulus driving lower default levels with other unsecured credit providers. The company reported record loan originations and profits in 2021. Smith recommended investors avoid buying shares until macro indicators like the company's Upstart Macro Index improve or management announces an expanded loan funding strategy.

☆ Netflix vs. Disney? Analysts have a favorite, and give it nearly 30% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

There's plenty of competition in streaming services, but Netflix and Disney are undoubtedly two of the biggest names — and both are facing a number of headwinds. However, analysts' average potential upside tells a different story: Disney gets average potential upside of 26%, according to FactSet data, while Netflix's comes in at just 3.8%. The case for Netflix For Bank of America, Netflix is a "world class brand" with a "leading global subscriber base." "I think Netflix is certainly going to have a lot of leverage on revenue growth and cost discipline. With the kind of blended businesses and the opportunities for improvement, I think Disney is a little bit better in my favor," he said.

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMicroStrategy buys 1,045 bitcoin, and Invest Diva explains her crypto confidence: CNBC Crypto WorldCNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what's ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today's show, Invest Diva CEO Kiana Danial discusses her bullishness on bitcoin.

☆ This China ETF is a bullish bet with mitigated risk, options trader says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) could be a good bet for investors bullish on Beijing, according to Michael Khouw of Optimize Advisors. "I think this is sort of a risk-mitigated way to make a bullish bet if you're inclined to go that way," he said Tuesday on CNBC's "Fast Money." A call option gives the buyer the right but not the obligation to buy a security at a specified price and by a set date. A call spread strategy is a bet that an asset's price will rise within a specified range: An investor uses two call options, one with a lower strike price and one with a higher strike price, to create that range. The ETF has gained 3.4% this year, meaning it has underperformed the broader S & P 500 's 6.8% gain.

☆ Wells Fargo thinks Netflix has 20% upside from here. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Netflix will likely see improved earnings and a continued rally as its password sharing crackdown continues, Wells Fargo said. "That said, we're confident that numbers will be moving higher as paid sharing is better understood, but it's tougher to know by how much." With these expected changes and uptake, incremental revenue should be around $1.5 billion by the 2024 fiscal year. His base case shows incremental revenue could increase by around $1.3 billion by 2024. Investors have already been excited by the potential for paid account sharing, Cahall said.

☆ Bonds are back this year after one of their worst stretches ever
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Bonds are rebounding in 2023 following one of their worst years ever as the asset class reclaims its function as an effective hedge for stocks. "Bonds are acting like bonds again," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. What's more, because bonds tend to rally during a recession as benchmark rates decline, Devereux said she recommends focusing on high-quality fixed income including U.S. Treasurys, agency mortgage-backed securities and municipal bonds. Within fixed income, she also recommended investors stick to bonds with AAA or AA ratings, saying investors should look for risk in equities rather than lower-rated bonds. "While returns for stocks and bonds have been positive so far this year, that stocks and bonds are largely performing well at different times has made the ride smoother for investors," Bolvin said.

☆ Top Wall Street analysts prefer these five stocks despite ongoing uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Tipranks.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Here are five stocks chosen by Wall Street's top analysts, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance. Nonetheless, several analysts, including Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani, remain bullish on the stock. Foot LockerThis week, sneaker and athletic apparel retailer Foot Locker (FL) delivered upbeat results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. Guggenheim analyst Robert Drbul expects Foot Locker to benefit from CEO Dillon's "extensive knowledge and deep understanding of off-mall and big-box retailing." (See Foot Locker Stock Chart on TipRanks)Cisco Systems

☆ China travel rebound bets turn toward airports, away from airlines
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We are optimistic on a rebound in regional and international travel and continue to get exposure through airports and airplane leasing." Shares of Air China, China Eastern and China Southern have gained between 7% to 17% in the past four months, with Air China and China Southern trading above their 5-year average forward earnings, according to Refinitiv data. Airports under perform AirlinesIn the battle for Chinese travelers, local airlines are expected to fare better than regional airlines such as Qantas (QAN.AX), Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI) and Cathay Pacific (0293.HK), mainly because Chinese airlines kept more widebody planes and staff ready. All three Chinese airlines are expected to swing to profit in 2023 after reporting big losses last year, according to Refinitiv data. Analysts expect Chinese airlines will see profits peak next year as international traffic makes a fuller rebound.

☆ Nvidia will soar 19% as the market's top semiconductor stock because their chips work most seamlessly with AI and they already have a head start, Credit Suisse says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Nvidia stock is set to hit $275 due to its leadership in AI, according to Credit Suisse. Nvidia shares have jumped more than 60% since the year's start as ChatGPT has raised AI hype. Characterizing Nvidia as the "leading silicon AI enabler," Credit Suisse said its graphic processing units are at the core of AI development and machine learning. Moreover, Nvidia's software will be its "competitive moat" in AI that keeps other companies at bay, Credit Suisse said. Credit Suisse is not alone in its bullishness.

☆ There's a lot of optimism on oil for the second half of 2023, says financial services firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a lot of optimism on oil for the second half of 2023, says financial services firmDan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners says there's "a lot of optimism in the back half of the year among analysts," and he's leaning toward bullishness, "but it's been slow in coming."

Summary U.S. bonds set for worst month since SeptWild swings at start of year may continueLONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - March madness? After a euphoric January was followed by a somber February, with bonds and equities selling off as strong data renewed rate-hike bets, more wild swings could be next for world markets. February fallsData on Friday showing a key inflation U.S. gauge accelerated last month stoked rate hike bets. The ECB lifted its key rate by 300 basis points since last July to 2.5%. If upcoming data weakens, markets could resume their bullishness, Yardeni Research said.

☆ Ark Invest's Cathie Wood says markets are wrong to fear inflation and the bursting of the tech bubble
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are wrong to fear high inflation and rising rates, according to Ark Invest's Cathie Wood. Though investors are skeptical of the boom in tech stocks, Woods said it wasn't a repeat of the dot-com era. But it's wrong to fear inflation and higher rates, Woods said, pointing to the steady decline in inflation from the highs of 2022, when price jumped at the fastest pace in 41 years. It was the same thing, but those who bet on lower inflation and interest rates long term were the winners." While investors have fled high growth tech names amid the Fed's rate hike cycle, the moment is not reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, Wood argued.

☆ Speculative bets are cool again and Reddit's army of retail investors is partying like it's 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

And yet, despite the dip this week, markets right now are brimming with bullishness — and Reddit-loving retail investors are partying like it's 2021. Retail investors are rebuffing Jerome Powell in piling into speculative assets. Remember, at the start of the pandemic, government stimulus and near-zero interest rates gave retail investors the perfect opportunity to lay down speculative bets. "With all of these headwinds, retail investors are jumping in on maybe some ill-conceived optimism," Goldman said. But economic data be damned, retail investors are still piling into the riskiest corners of the market.

☆ Reddit-loving retail investors are making their chaotic presence felt again - and their risky behavior is fueling a stock rally that doesn't look sustainable
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Bullish sentiment has returned in a big way among retail investors as they've started the year piling record amounts into stocks. Speculative bets are backSome of what retail investors are buying has troubled observers. Different from 2021, however, is that institutional and retail investors look like they're on the same team, at least to a noticeable degree. To JPMorgan's Kolanovic, retail investors' optimism foreshadows future weakness in the stock market, as weak hands get wiped out by volatility, similar to how 2022 played out. With the Fed still set to tighten monetary policy, retail investors' enthusiasm for risky assets could backfire like it did last year.

☆ Wall Street loves Alibaba right now. Here's what to expect from the tech giant's earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Since the turn of the year, more and more Wall Street banks have turned bullish on the Chinese tech sector, with Alibaba emerging as a favorite stock. The Chinese tech giant, which spans e-commerce, technology and internet segments, is due to report its earnings for the December quarter on Thursday. The bank has named Alibaba its "top pick" in the Chinese tech sector for the first time in three years. Morgan Stanley has a base-case price target of $150 on Alibaba, and a bull-case price target of $200. "We believe the 2-year long earnings downward revision cycle has likely bottomed," Goldman said, giving Alibaba a price target of $138.

☆ A recession could be 'deeper than expected' this year, says analyst—here's what it means for your money
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Raheel Siddiqui, senior research analyst at Neuberger Berman, told CNBC Make It a recession in 2023 "will be more severe than expected." The labor market is strong, too, with a tiny unemployment rate of 3.4%. "In a plain-vanilla recession, earnings go down 20%. And when economic downturns occur at the same time as deflation, you can expect a larger-than-normal drop in earnings, Siddiqui said. The bottom quartile is entering a recession," Siddiqui said.

☆ Morgan Stanley sees this industrial robotics stock as an 'automation pure play'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Despite being in a weird moment as a business, Morgan Stanley said Rockwell Automation is still a good way to play the automation trend. Analyst Joshua Pokrzywinski has an overweight rating on the industrial robotics and automation stock. Rockwell focuses on industrial automation — increasingly attractive as businesses look to find a substitute for labor, and to trim labor costs. Pokrzywinski called Rockwell an "automation pure play," noting it's in the middle of an "unusual" business cycle. Those investments could result in a 4% to 5% annual growth in capital spending on U.S. manufacturing, according to Morgan Stanley estimates.

As of late January, large speculators held moderate to large net long positions across CBOT corn, soybeans and soybean products, and those collectively outweighed their sizable net short in CBOT wheat. CBOT futures have mostly strengthened since then. Black Sea concerns and worsening crops in Argentina also helped CBOT corn drift 0.5% higher in the last 13 days, ending at $6.80-1/2 per bushel Friday. Corn has been the most mild-mannered of CBOT contracts since Jan. 25, trading up or down by less than 2% since then. ESTIMATESAs of Jan. 24, money managers’ net long position in CBOT corn futures and options hit an 11-week high of 201,797 contracts.

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