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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed should pause at 5% rates until banking crisis fallout fades, says Yardeni Research's Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's base case for a recession this year, if there's downside risk to the markets from the banking crisis and more.
For markets still reeling from the banking crisis, no news is good news. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Or perhaps it was precisely the lack of any significant event that cheered markets. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open: Nothing broke yesterday. Markets cheered
  + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
For markets still reeling from the banking crisis, no news is good news. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Or perhaps it was precisely the lack of any significant event that cheered markets. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
US stocks climbed on Thursday as traders mulled fresh jobs data and continued to move past concerns around the state of the banking sector following this month's string of bank failures. Applications for US unemployment benefits ticked higher last week, but have have stayed low, beneath 200,000, in what's still a robust labor market. Initial filings for unemployment insurance were 198,000 for the week ending on March 25, higher than estimates of 195,000. Following labor data, investors will be focused on personal consumption expenditures data on Friday. Legendary investor Ed Yardeni says US stocks could close this year 14% higher because the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes after the banking turmoil.
The Nasdaq 100 entered a bull market on Wednesday, rallying more than 20% from its December low. The Nasdaq has gained 17% in the first three months of 2023, with a few days left in the first quarter. The last time the Nasdaq 100 entered a bull market was in April 2020, a quarter that also marked the best stretch in the last decade. Signs of financial stress historically have prompted investors to buy more stocks, according to a Thursday note from DataTrek Research. DataTrek highlighted that the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress index reading is currently in the same ballpark as it was in July and August of 2002, as well as October 2011 — two similar periods of financial stress.
The S&P 500 could hit 4,600 points by the end of this year, according to Ed Yardeni. The veteran investor turmoil in the US banking sector to lead to the Federal Reserve pausing its rate hikes. "This banking crisis is going to be very well-contained," the veteran investor told CNBC on Wednesday. "And at the same time, I think it's going to keep the Fed from raising interest rates even further," he said. "We saw that last year with the meme stocks, with the SPACs, with the Ark stocks," he added.
The bull vs. bear case for the economy and Fed
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bull vs. bear case for the economy and FedGreg Branch, Veritas Financial Group managing partner, and Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, join 'Closing Bell' to offer the bull-bear debate for the economy.
Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres says home prices will drop 15% peak-to-trough. The weakening in the housing market will continue into Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024, according to José Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers. Affordability is measured by home prices and mortgage rates relative to incomes. Yardeni ResearchTorres thinks affordability will stay at relatively depressed levels in the months ahead because he sees mortgage rates staying high. As for mortgage rates, consensus among firms like Goldman Sachs, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody's, and others is that 30-year rates will remain above 5%.
Market veteran Ed Yardeni believes the S & P 500 can still earn a double-digit gain this year despite the banking crisis as well as fears of a hard landing. And at the same time, I think it's going to keep the Fed from raising interest rates even further," Yardeni said on CNBC's " Closing Bell " Wednesday. Yardeni said he doesn't think the Fed will cut rates this year. "I think they are currently now in a restrictive enough level where they don't have to keep raising interest rates," he said. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 The president of Yardeni Research set his S & P 500 year-end target at 4,600, which would translate into a roughly 20% gain for the year and a 14% rally from Wednesday's close of 4,027.81.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Veritas' Greg Branch and Yardeni Research's Ed YardeniGreg Branch, Veritas Financial Group managing partner, and Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, join 'Closing Bell' to offer the bull-bear debate for the economy.
Wall Street experts see a new era ahead for markets, marked by a more difficult investing environment. Central bankers have already raised interest rates over 1,700% over the last year to quell high prices. Despite the volatility in bank stocks, Fed officials raised interest rates another 25 basis-points this week, bringing the effective Fed funds rate to 4.75-5%. That's the highest interest rates have been since 2007, and the impact of SVB's collapse is likely equivalent to another 50-75 basis points in rate hikes, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi estimated, meaning real interest rates are even more restrictive. Some experts have argued that SVB's collapse was due to the bank's uniquely high exposure to bonds, which have been weighed down heavily by rising interest rates.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWall Street veteran Ed Yardeni says the U.S. has been in a 'rolling recession'Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research says the U.S. Federal Reserve has "done enough" and no longer needs to raise interest rates.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. banking sector appears in much better shape than European counterparts, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins CNBC's "Squawk Box" to discuss signs of trouble at European banks.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni on Fed's rate hike pathEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the Fed's rate hike path after the CPI report.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation turned out to be transitory on the good side, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research, joins the 'Halftime Report' to discuss the Fed's rate hike path following the most recent CPI report.
Fed Chair Powell's testimony: What it means for the market
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell's testimony: What it means for the marketEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, and Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy perspectives, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss how much weight Powell's comments carry, Yardeni's expectations for the markets in March, and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Veritas' Greg Branch and Yardeni Research's Ed YardeniGreg Branch, Veritas Financial Group managing partner, and Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss market reaction to Powell's Senate testimony.
Summary U.S. bonds set for worst month since SeptWild swings at start of year may continueLONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - March madness? After a euphoric January was followed by a somber February, with bonds and equities selling off as strong data renewed rate-hike bets, more wild swings could be next for world markets. February fallsData on Friday showing a key inflation U.S. gauge accelerated last month stoked rate hike bets. The ECB lifted its key rate by 300 basis points since last July to 2.5%. If upcoming data weakens, markets could resume their bullishness, Yardeni Research said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEmployee stock compensation plans can mitigate dilution through buybacks, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, and Cerity Partners' Jim Lebenthal join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the tax advantages of buybacks, record highs in corporate capital spending and generating cash through buyback strategies.
Housing prices around the US will see declines in the high single-digits, says Bill Adams. Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area in California face unique challenges, he said. That downward trend will continue into the fourth quarter this year, Adams said, and peak-to-trough prices declines will end up being in the high single-digits. According to Kiplinger, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Francisco, and Oakland are all in the top 11 most expensive cities in the US. According to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, home prices in Los Angeles are down 7.5% from their peak, and prices in San Francisco are down 14.2%.
The economy faces four potential outcomes, with the most optimistic also being the most likely, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Other potential outcomes and their percentages, according to Yardeni: a disinflationary no landing (20%), hard landing (20%), and inflationary no landing (20%). The disinflationary no landing scenario entails real GDP rising 2%-3% while inflation moderates. Finally, the inflationary no landing scenario would see the economy avoid recession but still be plagued by high prices, resulting in a more hardline Fed. Committee members will update their outlooks on GDP, inflation, unemployment and the future path of the funds rate.
That could stop this year's stock market rally in its tracks, according to SoFi's Liz Young. “What the equity market is not pricing in at this point, or is not worried enough about, is consumer spending,” she said Thursday. "I question some of the narrative around us having all these pent-up savings and sitting on these stockpiles of cash," Young said. It also bucks the stock market itself, which has surged at the start of 2023. Read more: The prediction war between stock market bulls and bears is reaching a feverish pitch.
US stocks have rebounded in 2023, with the benchmark S&P 500 advancing almost 8%. "We see neither a bull nor a bear market, just a market," analysts said. "We see neither a bull nor a bear market, just a market," a team of analysts led by Chris Harvey wrote in a Monday research note titled "Bear Exits, but Bull Stuck in Traffic". Wells Fargo pointed to a narrowing in investment-grade credit spreads as one sign that the bear market is coming to an end. Read more: Stocks are back in a bull market as global economic outlook is improving, says market veteran Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni: May be moving from a soft landing to no landing
  + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEd Yardeni: May be moving from a soft landing to no landingEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the economy and where he thinks the markets will go after the CPI report.
U.S. stock futures slipped on Tuesday night following the release of January's hotter-than-anticipated consumer price index. Inflation data for January came slightly above economists' estimates, indicating a potentially longer path in the Federal Reserve's fight against rising prices. Commenting on the monthly uptick in inflation data, Yardeni added, "I think we're going to have some bumps along the road. Key inflation data will also be announced on Wednesday. Investors will also be looking toward the latest retail sales data to gauge consumer demand and retail inflation.
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