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☆ Company outlooks so far paint a dreary 2023 earnings picture, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The early 2023 corporate earnings outlooks that companies are issuing alongside actual fourth-quarter results are deteriorating, Bank of America equity and quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian wrote in a report Sunday. As a result, S & P 500 earnings estimates for 2023 have already fallen 1% — but are 10% down from where they were at the peak in June 2022. "Early signs are troubling," with an in-house "S & P guidance ratio" falling into the 10th percentile, signaling that "corporate misery [is] rising." What's worse, analysts' estimates had already fallen 7% coming into the reporting period, Subramanian said. She noted the same disconcerting early earnings trend, headlining a report out on Monday with, "EPS Backdrop Continues To Soften."

☆ Forget inflation, it’s all about earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

They noted that over the last three quarters, S&P 500 reactions to earnings beats and misses have soared higher and have now surpassed the one-day market reaction to both CPI inflation and Fed policy meeting decisions. Shares of Disney sank 13.16% last November — their lowest level in more than two years — when they missed earnings estimates. “We see this as a narrative shift in the market from the Fed and inflation to earnings: reactions to earnings have been increasing, while reactions to inflation data and FOMC meetings have been getting smaller,” wrote Subramanian and Kwon. So we can expect some serious volatility over the next few weeks as companies report their fourth quarter corporate earnings. Bad news ahead: The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of 2022 is -3.9%, according to a FactSet analysis.

☆ 'The market is built on a bedrock of total complacency': A former top TD Ameritrade technical analyst says stocks will fall another 20% this year as investors begin to realize a Fed pivot isn't in the
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He also thinks earnings expectations are too high and will come down. This hawkish policy will eventually lead to a recession this year, Bierman said, a view that is shared by many on Wall Street. "The market has not priced in earnings misses, the market has priced in earnings beats," he said. Bierman's views in contextBierman's recession call has become a somewhat consensus view on Wall Street. RIA AdvisorsThis translates to lackluster expectations for stocks among Wall Street strategists.

☆ Analysis: With banks' results on tap, options traders prepare for volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brian SnyderNEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Options traders are bracing for volatility in U.S. bank shares days ahead of an earnings season many believe will bring lower profits and reflect worries over an expected recession. The trade would be profitable if the ETF’s shares slipped below $33 by mid-February, a 6% decline from current levels. The S&P 500 bank index (.SPXBK) fell 21.6% last year, compared to a compared to a 19.4% decline for the S&P 500 as a whole. Options on big bank stocks, on average, are pricing the largest post-earnings moves in the last two years, an analysis by Susquehanna International Group showed. "The trading bias in the options heading into big bank earnings has been buying volatility and protecting positions," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.

☆ Bank of America: These are the 11 top stocks to buy for 2023 to position for both a recession in the first half of the year and the recovery afterwards
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should focus on quality stocks with strong fundamentals in 2023, said BofA. Bank of America recently released its top stock picks across the 11 S&P 500 sectors. The basket of 11 stocks chosen in 2022 outperformed the S&P 500 by 8.5 percentage points. "Given our house view that 2023 could be a tale of two halves — a recession and a recovery — stocks may fare differently in these two periods, and we note recession and recovery beneficiaries below," she wrote. The 11 stocks are listed below, along with each company's ticker, market capitalization, sector, and appropriate analyst commentary.

☆ A 33-year market vet shares why history shows stocks will likely fall more than 20% further before bottoming as a recession barrels toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But Lebowitz thinks there's a much greater chance that a recession occurs, forcing the Fed to back off. And then there's the inverted yield curve, which has preceded every recession since the 1960s. RIA AdvisorsIt's also not a good environment for stocks because yield curve inversions have usually meant large downward earnings revisions, which haven't happened yet. RIA AdvisorsAnother look at history, Lebowitz said, shows that a recession has to be already underway before stocks can bottom out. The yield curve, Chicago PMI, and other analyses argue it's a matter of when but if a recession occurs.

☆ Investors clinging to the S&P 500 aren't safe and should get out of crowded trades and into other areas like small caps, Bank of America's top stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors clinging onto the S&P 500 aren't safe, according to BofA's Savita Subramanian. She encouraged investors to allocate more funds into overlooked areas of the market, like energy and small cap stocks. Last year was dismal for stocks, with the S&P 500 losing 20% as the Fed jacked up interest rates and battled sky-high inflation. She pointed instead to areas like energy and small cap stocks, which are relatively less crowded compared to the S&P 500 and could be a safer bet. Other Wall Street analysts have also predicted a 20% drop in the first half, which could be a major buying opportunity for investors, Subramanian said.

☆ Bank of America's top 2023 picks include an under-the-radar tech stock
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors looking for somewhere to park their money in the new year may want to consider these top stock picks, according to Bank of America. The bank outlined 11 of its favorite names for 2023 in a note to clients Wednesday. Some names, however, may be better positioned to ride out the volatility, according to the Wall Street firm. As uncertainty lingers, here are some of the names Bank of America recommends: One under-the-radar pick is Analog Devices , a semiconductor stock that sold off about 7% in 2022. Another 2023 name to buy is health-care stock Humana , which outperformed in 2022 as investors flocked toward safe-haven sectors.

☆ A 30-year investing vet who called the latest bear market warns that stocks have another 41% downside with US economy already in recession and the Fed continuing to ratchet up rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.

Once high-flying mega-cap technology stocks tumbled in 2022, but some investors are willing to bet on Amazon and Alphabet in 2023, a new Delivering Alpha investor survey suggests. Betting on energy Energy stocks rallied in 2022 as the world grappled with supply constraints fueled by the conflict in Ukraine, but some investors aren't giving up on it just yet. When asked which areas they plan to focus on at the beginning of 2023, 41% of respondents highlighted energy stocks. Fundstrat's Tom Lee told CNBC last month that energy stocks can more than double next year even if the market stays flat . As uncertainty lingers, survey respondents also said they plan to look beyond the U.S. in 2023 toward opportunities in emerging markets.

☆ Bank of America's stock chief warns that the S&P 500's popularity could be its worst enemy as investors crowd in. She told us her strategy for avoiding that volatility in a rocky 2023 market.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Crowding in S&P 500 index funds make the index vulnerable to volatility, Savita Subramanian says. The Bank of America equity chief currently sees the S&P 500 at 4,000 by year-end 2023. "The S&P 500 is one of the most liquid equity benchmarks — it's made up of the largest stocks in the world," she continued. "Given this crowding into the S&P index, we've actually seen the S&P 500 exhibit higher realized volatility than the Russell 2000 or less historically-liquid benchmarks. She then sees the market stabilizing and the S&P 500 recovering to around 4,000 by the end of 2023.

☆ Here's why Wall Street is warning the Fed blew it on inflation and it won't save the stock market from crashing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Fed blew it on inflation stocks are going to have to suffer as a result. The central bank has no choice now but to keep hiking until inflation is down, experts have said. Here are five top voices in markets warning investors not to pin their hopes on a Fed put to save stocks. El-Erian has been a loud critic of the Fed's response to inflation this year, slamming central bankers for saying inflation was "transitory" in 2021. That's the cost of the Fed being late to the game, and the central bank can't back away from its monetary tightening now, El-Erian warned.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns stocks are still as overvalued as they were in 1929 and 2000, setting up the S&P 500 for a 'far deeper retreat' and a decade of negative ret
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman expects a "far deeper retreat" in stocks, despite the S&P 500's 20% loss in 2022. The 20% loss the S&P 500 has suffered this year has most investors searching for a bottom. "Though recent market losses have removed the most extreme speculative froth, our most reliable valuation measures remain near their 1929 and 2000 extremes." He also said he expects -6% returns over the next 10-12 years for the S&P 500. The chart below shows actual market returns (vertical axis) over 12 years when considering market capitalization of non-financial stock-to-gross value added valuations.

☆ Beware these stocks: Analysts see a rough year ahead for these companies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Pro looked at stocks that are poised to lose the most in 2023 based on the average analyst price target, according to FactSet. Asset manager Franklin Resources has the most downside next year, set to lose 12%, according to the average analyst price target on FactSet. Also making the list is food giant General Mills , which has nearly 8% downside to the average analyst price target. The stock has nearly 7% downside to the average analyst price target, per FactSet. Lastly, Etsy has nearly 4% downside to the average analyst price target.

☆ Risks of a recession in 2023 are growing as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy. 4 Wall Street banks share how far stocks will fall if that happens — and when the market will bottom.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Consumer Price Index was 7.1% in November, and the Fed brought the fed funds rate ceiling up to 4.5% this week. Below we've compiled what four major Wall Street banks believe stocks will do if a recession plays out. UBSUBS economists are predicting a recession starting in Q2 2023, and the bank's Chief US Equity Strategist Keith Parker therefore sees a hit to earnings ahead. Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs economists, meanwhile, see a soft landing as the most likely scenario for the US economy in 2023. Goldman SachsBank of AmericaBank of America's economists see a recession in the first half of 2023.

☆ What peak inflation really means for the market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhat peak inflation really means for the marketBofA Securities' Savita Subramanian on the Fed and the markets. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Bonawyn Eison.

☆ Inflation will remain higher and stickier than the market's pricing in, says BofA's Savita Subramanian
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will remain higher and stickier than the market's pricing in, says BofA's Savita SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities, joins CNBC's "Fast Money" to discuss the Fed's upcoming rate hike decision and her market and economic outlook going into 2023.

☆ Finding low volatility stocks that generate income for what's likely to be another tumultuous year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With 2023 expected to be another rocky year for the stock market, investors may find shelter in low volatility names that produce income. JPMorgan is expecting the S & P 500 to retest this year's lows and Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson believes earnings will shrink 15% to 20% next year. They also have a dividend yield greater than 2% and at least 60% of the analysts covering them rate the stocks a buy, according to FactSet. The companies are all the S & P 1500 and have at least 5 analysts covering them. Some 74% of analysts covering the stock give it a buy rating.

☆ These stocks could have the most to gain from peaking inflation, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Certain stocks are poised to gain the most if high inflation is past its peak, according to analysts from the Bank of America. In the past-peak inflation environment, certain stocks are set up to potentially gain, according to a Dec. 6 note by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Securities. This means that as inflation subsides, these stocks should get a boost. Other retail names on Bank of America's list include O'Reilly Automotive , Clorox , Ross Stores , Home Depot and Lowe's . Some of these companies picked out by Bank of America have also been able to hold up amid rising inflation.

☆ Markets are wrong in thinking the Fed would step in to boost falling stock prices, and investors should prepare for a volatile January, Bank of America's chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed won't step back from hawkish policy if stocks are crashing, according to BofA's Savita Subramanian. "The higher the market goes in December, the worse it's going to be in January," Subramanian said to CNBC. But that prospect is unlikely, Subramanian said, predicting more downside for the stock market. But stocks hitting a trough next year could contain the silver lining of setting up a long-term bull market, Subramanian said. She pointed to Bank of America's valuation model – which the bank considers to be its most reliable 10-year predictive model – and estimated that the stock market could have an average annual return of 5% over the next decade.

☆ Bank of America sees a super volatile year ahead but has 2 stock-buy strategies so you can sleep at night
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"We expect another volatile year and recommend owning High Quality stocks … But today's High Quality stocks look different than a few years ago (e.g. The oil refiner posted third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street's expectations in October. The health insurer beat analysts' expectations with its third-quarter earnings report in November. Walmart's strength in its third-quarter earnings came from its food business, which is bigger than Target's. Walmart's per-share earnings beat expectations , while Target reported a third-quarter earnings miss and profit that fell by about 50%.

☆ Investors should prepare for a volatile market in January, says BofA's Savita Subramania
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should prepare for a volatile market in January, says BofA's Savita SubramaniaSavita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Securities, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down potential investment opportunities ahead of the open.

☆ Wall Street experts are warning that stocks are in for more trouble as a robust November jobs report is crushing investor hopes of a dovish Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks fell on Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a robust November jobs report. But with the economy resilient, the Fed could continue to cause more pain for stocks going forward. November's jobs report, however, puts a pin the hopes of those anticipating easier policy sooner. He added: "Chairman Powell's speech earlier in the week was interpreted with a dovish lens, but that spin is likely to be reassessed based on the jobs report. Even before Friday's jobs report, some Wall Street strategists and money managers have been warning of further trouble ahead.

☆ Sam Bankman-Fried just explained what happened at FTX: Everything to know
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

While the world's most powerful finance official took the lunchtime billing, it was Sam Bankman-Fried who held the primetime slot. Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX CEO, at a digital assets hearing in 2021. Within minutes of starting, Sorkin asked Bankman-Fried directly if there was a commingling of funds between the two now-bankrupt companies he founded, FTX and Alameda Research. When Sorkin asked whether Bankman-Fried feels he has any criminal liability, Bankman-Fried said that's not what he's focused on right now. Earnings on deck: Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal, and Dollar General Corporation, all reporting.

☆ Bank of America says the US economy is hurtling toward a recession. Their stock chief shares her 5-part investing playbook for thriving during the downturn.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bank of America economists say a mild recession is coming in 1H 2023. In a webinar on Monday, the bank's stock chief Savita Subramanian shared her playbook. First, Subramanian said she likes sectors of the market that offer free-cash-flow yields, growing income streams, and protection from inflation. Next, Subramanian likes two sectors that are more traditional recession plays: consumer staples and utilities. For consumer staples, she said she would start moving out of the sector once the economy shows clear signs of a recovery.

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