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China stares hard at its own lost decade
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, June 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China has good reason to hold back on unleashing big stimulus. The central bank has made small cuts to interest rates as everything from credit growth to exports disappoint. For President Xi Jinping, it’s a hard choice between short term gains and his long-term ambition to rebalance the economy. Even if it does issue such bonds, funds may be indirectly used to help poorer provinces repay debt. The Chinese government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after missing its 2022 goal.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, National Institution for Finance, Development, Wall Street, People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing
Interest rates have broken the global wealth pump
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
Rising inflation and higher interest rates would appear to make matters even worse. In the United States, immigration and the offshoring of manufacturing has undercut the power of labour. Ultra-low interest rates proved the greatest wealth pump ever devised, loading the dice in favour of the financial elite. Since the turn of the century, when the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan reduced interest rates to a new post-war low, wealth has consistently grown faster than GDP. That’s where higher interest rates come in.
Persons: Leonard Cohen, Peter Turchin, “ cliodynamics ”, Clio, Turchin, Hong Xiuquan, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Clay Frick, , Donald Trump, ” Turchin, Alan Greenspan, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Times, Elites, Steel, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: United States, France, China, Taiping, Japan
The headquarters of Grab Holdings Ltd., in Singapore. Grab Holdings Ltd., reported its latest earnings on Feb. 23, 2023. Singapore-based Grab Holdings is cutting over 1,000 jobs, its CEO said Tuesday, in a bid to manage costs and reorganize the company in a competitive landscape. This is the group's largest round of layoffs since 2020, when it cut 360 jobs in response to Covid-19 pandemic challenges. Even without layoffs, Tan said Grab is on track to hit breakeven this year on group adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Persons: Anthony Tan, Tan Organizations: Grab Holdings Locations: Singapore
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA rebalance into fixed income away from equities could be a market headwind, says Adam CrisafulliAdam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the latest economic data out of China, current market headwinds, and more.
Persons: Adam Crisafulli Adam Crisafulli Organizations: Vital Knowledge Locations: China
The continent-wide European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index rose 0.5%. The index gained 1.5% in the policy-packed week, its best performance in over two months. China-focused luxury stocks such as LVMH (LVMH.PA) and Richemont (CFR.S) gained nearly 3% each, boosting the broader STOXX 600. Defensive shares such as healthcare (.SXDP) gained 0.9%, and utilities (.SX6P) climbed 1.3% to a four-week peak. The STOXX 600 broke away from a restrictive 1% trading range that was seen for much of the past two weeks, as investors gradually start putting behind major central bank events.
Persons: Travis Perkins, DAX, Germany's DAX, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell, Hewson, Shreyashi Sanyal, Siddarth, Sohini Goswami, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: European Central Bank, U.S, U.S . Federal, Bank of Japan, Bank of, Britain's, Rheinmetall, Apollo Global Management, Claure Group, Thomson Locations: China, U.S ., Stockholm, Millicom, Bengaluru
Today is expiration day, so expect a lot of volume. Two things happen today: the so-called triple witching, or the quarterly expiration of stock and index options and index futures, and the S & P 500 quarterly rebalancing, where additions and deletions to the S & P are done. The effect of the triple witching has been greatly reduced due to the tremendous growth of weekly and monthly options that have been big competition for the quarterly expiration. The S & P rebalancing will see Palo Alto Networks go into the S & P 500, and Dish Network relegated to the small-cap S & P 600. This is also the day when index funds — such as S & P 500 index funds run by Vanguard, State Street, iShares, etc.
Organizations: Palo Alto Networks, Dish Network, Vanguard, Apple, ExxonMobil, Meta, Nvidia Locations: Palo Alto, iShares, Chevron , Berkshire
It's focused on maximizing your after-tax yield with a diverse, low-cost blend of bond ETFs. Read our review Read Our Review A looong arrow, pointing rightWhy you should consider an automated bond portfolioWealthfront's automated bond portfolio pays a 5.59% yield, which is higher than Wealthfront's own cash account that pays 4.55% to 5.05%. Also, the automated bond portfolio may be tax-advantaged, but there's no guarantee that it will work. But neither platform offers automated investing specifically for bond ETFs, so passive investors are better off with Wealthfront. It also invests in a blend of commission-free bond ETFs and iShares bond ETFs.
Persons: Wealthfront, , Charles Schwab, you'll Organizations: Bond, Service, SEC, Reading Chevron, Treasury, Fidelity, Wealthfront
An exchange traded fund built on an investing strategy popularized by Warren Buffett is proving its worth once again in 2023. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) has a total return of more than 23% year to date, according to FactSet, handily beating the S & P 500 and enhancing an already stellar long-term track record. MOAT 5Y mountain The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF has been a long-term outperformer. The Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) and iShares Core S & P 500 ETF (IVV) were the top two funds of the week, each bringing in more than $2 billion. Several large short-term bond funds saw outflows this week, including Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) .
Persons: Warren Buffett, FactSet, Brandon Rakszawski, Rakszawski, It's Organizations: Morningstar, Adobe, Bond, Federal Locations: VanEck, outflows
But on Wall Street, a crisis is just a bit of financial engineering away from becoming an opportunity to make money. That's where inflation traders come in. The strategy of betting on the swings in consumer prices has exploded in recent years, with revenues from inflation trading going from $700 million in 2019 to $3.9 billion in 2022. And while inflation trading has the potential to generate some big returns, making your money back on hires like these might be a tall task if inflation has a short shelf life. More on where the top players in inflation trading are landing amid a heated war for talent.
Persons: Dan DeFrancesco, we've, Goldman Sachs, I've, Malte Mueller, Insider's Kaja Whitehouse, Kaja, Ben Stiller, Owen Wilson, Elon Musk, Goldman, Citadel's Ken Griffin, Dara Khosrowshahi, Jeffrey Cane, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Getty, Labor Statistics, Federal, Paramount, BlackRock, Tech, LinkedIn Locations: BlackRock, China, New York, London
HDFC Bank and HDFC - both heavily owned by mutual funds - are set to conclude a merger in the next few weeks to create India's second-largest financial institution by assets after the State Bank of India. At least 60 equity mutual fund schemes will see their combined exposure to HDFC Bank and HDFC overshoot the 10% cap as of Wednesday. The matter has been referred to the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), according to two mutual fund executives. "HDFC Bank and HDFC are fairly liquid stocks and have a lot of demand. Shares of HDFC Bank have risen 6.5% since April 1, 2022, but have still underperormed the broader BSE Bankex, which is up 17%.
Persons: SEBI, Deven Choksey, Jayshree, Varun, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: HDFC Bank, Reuters, HDFC, State Bank of India, Securities and Exchange Board of India, Association of Mutual Funds, KRChoksey Holdings, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, India
The vote to skip a rate increase this meeting was unanimous. “Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” the statement said. Future policy moves depend on what economic indicators show in the coming weeks and months, including the resilient job market. Most officials in the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, expect the unemployment rate to rise to a range of 4-4.1% this year. “Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation,” according to the statement.
Persons: Banks Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, , Market Committee, Locations: Washington
Rebalance your portfolio Tech's remarkable bounce in 2023 could result in a significant portfolio tilt toward that sector — and an overconcentration that could hurt in the event there's a downturn. That means it's time to trim down a few of those oversized positions and make sure your asset allocation is properly reflecting your goals. Check in with cash Cash is another asset that requires your attention, especially in an era when investors have a host of options of where keep those funds. Cash you don't need for many years can go right back into your stock portfolio so you can keep ahead of inflation, Pearce said. "Make sure you have an appropriate amount of cash, and make sure you're not sitting on an enormous pile of cash that's doing nothing," he added.
Persons: Jorrell Bland, Josh Brown, Tony Roth, haven't, Wilmington Trust's Roth, Roth, Cash, Jerrod Pearce, Goldman Sachs, Marcus, Pearce, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Mitlin, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, JPMorgan Equity, Wilmington, Creative Planning, Bread, Bread Financial, Citizens Financial, Treasury Locations: Wilmington, Treasurys
This is mind, some strategists are urging investors to proceed with caution around the technology. Below, we've compiled quotes from strategists who are warning investors not to get caught up in the hype. For example, of the top-ten technology stocks at the peak of the Tech Bubble, only two remain in the top ten today," he continued. He said he plans on reducing his positions in some AI stocks. "The excitement about generative AI has distracted investors from the possible risks of a looming recession," Goodwin said on June 6.
Persons: we've, Jason Pride, Michael Landsberg, Wealth Management Landsberg, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Lauren Goodwin, Goodwin Organizations: Tech, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, New York
New York CNN —The US economy has been surprisingly resilient this year, but painful bumps are likely coming, said Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon in an interview with CNBC on Monday morning. In this good-is-bad economy, strong employment and higher wages mean higher inflation as companies pass on increased labor costs by raising the price of goods. Like its Wall Street rivals, Goldman Sachs has been hit by a slump in dealmaking and activity. In January, Goldman Sachs launched much deeper layoffs that were expected to result in the loss of as many as 3,200 employees. Last September, Goldman also let go of underperformers as part of a normal process at the bank.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, , Solomon, ” Solomon, , , JPMorgan Chase, Goldman, “ We’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNBC, Federal, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank, JPMorgan, CNN Locations: New York, United States, Silicon, underperformers
Over the same period, however, working gas inventories increased by 454 billion cubic feet compared with a prior 10-year average increase of 401 billion cubic feet. No progress was made eliminating excess inventories during the spring quarter. Freeport LNG's re-opened export terminal did not make a significant difference in depleting the excess inventories accumulated during the winter of 2022/23. Unless the summer is unusually hot, boosting gas consumption by electricity generators, excess inventories look set to persist for several more months. As a result, hedge funds and other money managers have been cautious about turning bullish on gas prices.
Persons: John Kemp, Paul Simao Organizations: Climate Prediction Center, CPC, Freeport LNG's, Thomson, Reuters Locations: United States, U.S, Ukraine
It's focused on maximizing your after-tax yield with a diverse, low-cost blend of bond ETFs. Here's everything you need to know about the new Wealthfront automated bond portfolio. Read our review Read Our Review A looong arrow, pointing rightWhy you should consider an automated bond portfolioWealthfront's automated bond portfolio pays a 5.48% yield, which is higher than Wealthfront's own cash account that pays 4.55% to 5.05%. Also, the automated bond portfolio may be tax-advantaged, but there's no guarantee that it will work. It also invests in a blend of commission-free bond ETFs and iShares bond ETFs.
Persons: Wealthfront, , Charles Schwab, you'll Organizations: Bond, Service, SEC, Reading Chevron, Treasury, Fidelity, Wealthfront
The biggest momentum ETF, the iShares MSCI USA Momentum ETF (MTUM) , rebalanced in the final days of May and now has Nvidia as the biggest holding in its portfolio, at about 6.3%. MTUM YTD mountain The biggest momentum ETF has struggled in 2023. How the index works The MSCI USA Momentum Index attempts to capture hot stocks, with the hope their rally will continue over the coming months. The MSCI USA Momentum Index is rebalanced every six months, with the most recent update taking effect June 1. There are other momentum funds with different methodologies that rebalance more frequently, such as the Invesco DWA Momentum ETF (PDP) and the Alpha Architect U.S. Quantitative Momentum ETF (QMOM) , which have outperformed MTUM this year, but those two funds are still trailing the S & P 500.
Persons: MTUM, Todd Sohn, Abhishek Gupta, Roman Mendoza, Strategas, Sohn, we've Organizations: Nvidia, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Meta, Microsoft, ETF, Alpha Architect
As big-cap tech approaches new highs, some put more emphasis on equal weight. With more than $7 trillion indexed to the S & P 500, this is not an academic debate. With the S & P 500 up 8% this year, the average stock, as represented by the S & P Equal Weight ETF (RSP), is up a measly 0.5%. The RSP has underperformed the market-cap weighted S & P 500 month-to-date, quarter-to-date, and year-to-date. An argument could be made that active managers invest more like an equal-weight index.
After tracking the S&P 500 from 1965 to 2021, Berkshire Hathaway found the compound annual gain in the S&P 500 was 10.5%. In the case of S&P 500 index funds, the stocks are those of the companies listed in the S&P 500. With 500+ stocks in their portfolio, S&P 500 funds are especially diversified, their securities representing a range of industries. With 500+ stocks in their portfolio, S&P 500 funds are especially diversified, their securities representing a range of industries. The diversified, passive approach of S&P 500 funds — like most index funds — means an investor's downside is generally limited.
A man pauses outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on January 15, 2016 in New York City. Index-rebalance strategies, the talk of the town just a few short years ago, are seemingly on their last legs these days. What doomed the index-rebalance strategy is a tale as old as time on Wall Street. Times are tough now, but as Alex notes in his story, not everyone is completely giving up on the strategy. And while we're talking Man Group, here's a rundown on a program meant to help non-tech workers learn data-science skills to help streamline their jobs.
Heavyweight multi-strategy hedge funds aren't known for their patience. It seems their patience has run out on the index-rebalance strategy, one of the most popular and sought-after hedge fund moneymakers in recent years. Representatives for the hedge funds declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment. While hedge funds are allocating their capital elsewhere, they haven't given up on index-rebalance trading. Do you know more about the index-rebalance trade?
Why bank stocks are so unstable
  + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +10 min
New York CNN —The financial sector has been churning in rough water since the shocking collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Bank insiders see this and have been buying up shares of regional lenders, according to a report by Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott. The Oracle of Omaha said he remains cautious about holding bank stocks and that he has reduced his own exposure to the sector. The S&P 500 financial sector, however, is down more than 12% over the same period. Economists were hoping that this year would bring better news, but instead 2023 brought the collapse of three US regional banks and a subsequent lending squeeze.
While many of the problems that helped trigger the upward spiral have abated, prices are still high and getting higher. The idea that companies are taking advantage of disruptions to push price increases on consumers has many names — greedflation, excuseflation, price gouging, corporate profiteering — but the gist is the same. Supply-chain issues and other disruptions made sense as drivers of higher prices, Chris Becker, a senior economist and the associate director of policy and research at the Groundwork Collaborative, told me. "Working people are suffering thanks to corporate greed, so we need to enact tougher rules to ensure corporations pay a price when they price gouge." Working people are suffering thanks to corporate greed, so we need to enact tougher rules to ensure corporations pay a price when they price gouge.
President Joe Biden's 2024 budget proposals contain several proposals that could hit small businesses right where it hurts — their wallets. Here are five provisions business owners should be aware of in President Biden's budget:A higher capital gains tax rate would be bad for business sellers. Biden is proposing that the corporate tax rate be increased to 28% from 21%. The majority of small businesses are pass-through businesses that are not subject to the corporate income tax, but for companies that are, the increase would be meaningful, tax experts said. Biden's proposal would increase the 3.8% net investment income tax rate on small business income over $400,000 to 5%.
Tech workers on anonymous networking site Blind debated whether the end of $500,000 salaries is here. Tech workers are concerned it might be the end of a very lucrative era in the industry. The Oracle employee was not the only one to question whether tech salaries are on a downward spiral. Major tech companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Google have laid off thousands of staff in recent months. Additional concerns are being raised over the growing abilities of AI, with dozens of tech workers taking to Blind to question whether their jobs will be replaced entirely.
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