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The market's turn toward treating good economic news as positive for stocks is pictured here in a chart from Citi strategists, showing the three-month correlation between the S & P 500 and the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise index has turned sharply higher. The S & P 500's low for the week was Wednesday morning, right at the 5400 level where it previously hit a low a week ago Friday after a tepid employment report. Forward 12-month S & P 500 earnings forecasts continue to rise smartly, now approaching $270. But, thanks to the past two months of sideways churn, that's down from 21.7 when the S & P first hit its current level in July. And the rally last week could well have front-run any potential positive inference from the Fed's move next week.
Persons: Ally Financial, Ed Hyman, Loretta Mester, William Dudley, John Kolovos Organizations: Citi, Citi U.S, Fed, Ally, CPI, Wall Street, Financial Times, Treasury, National Association of Active Investment, American Association of
And yet, the unemployment rate continues to inch up, job openings continue to fall, and payroll data continue to underwhelm. But how long that enthusiasm can continue to outweigh declining labor market indicators remains to be seen. AdvertisementThe first is declining job openings, which are down to 7.6 million from 2022 highs above 12 million. BullAndBearProfits.comAnother sign Wolfenbarger shared showing the labor market is turning sour is the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index, which is a composite of 24 job market indicators. BullAndBearProfits.comFinally, in a September 2 note, Wolfenbarger shared a chart from Bank of America showing the decline in private job growth as a share of all job growth.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, there's, BullAndBearProfits.com, John, Hussman, Stocks Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Kansas City Fed's Labor, BullAndBearProfits.com, Bank of America Locations: Kansas
A bitcoin sign is seen in the main hall during the Bitcoin 2024 conference at Music City Center July 26, 2024 in Nashville, Tennessee. On the plus side, the cryptocurrency rose 12% in the past seven days and the network hash rate hit an all-time high. Hash rate refers to the collective computing power of all miners in the bitcoin network, and the recent high suggests there have never been more miners online, actively securing the network. Institutional capital has poured in since the SEC approved spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January, and the bitcoin network is more robust than ever, held together by a vast and decentralized network of miners securing transactions with the help of large banks of machines. The halving historically precedes a wave of bankruptcies among bitcoin mining firms, which are suddenly generating much less revenue with the same level of operating costs.
Persons: it's, Jefferies, bitcoin Organizations: Music City, Investment, SEC Locations: Nashville , Tennessee
Why Trump’s trade hero turned against tariffs
  + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +15 min
Vice President Kamala Harris has lambasted Trump’s tariff plan as a tax, but President Joe Biden has maintained tariffs Trump put in place during his presidency. We used trade policy, or tariffs, as a form of reciprocity, where we said, OK, our tariffs are pretty high. So that’s what led to all these trade agreements, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, GATT, which became the WTO (World Trade Organization), NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and other free trade agreements that we’ve reached. He began to entertain this idea of reciprocity, of trying to reduce foreign tariffs by offering cuts in our tariffs. How do those tariffs compare with the late 19th century tariffs?
Persons: CNN —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Biden, Read, Douglas Irwin, Irwin, William McKinley —, Trump, IRWIN, there’s, It’s, we’ve, William McKinley WOLF, William McKinley, McKinley, they’ve, Bush, H.C ., William Jennings Bryan, that’s, they’re, it’s, Britain WOLF Organizations: CNN, Republicans, Democrats, Trump, Dartmouth College, Commerce, US Trade, Trade, WTO, World Trade Organization, American Free Trade, of Congress, University, Virginia’s, Federal, WOLF, Peterson Institute for International, Republican Party Locations: China, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Homestead , Pennsylvania, H.C, Buffalo, trillions, United States, it’s China, Britain, Japan
Mortgage rates probably won't drop much further if the Fed cuts rates, unless central bankers opt for a larger-than-expected cut. 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates have been dropping this month and are now down near 5.70%, according to Zillow data. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: you'll, they've, Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal Reserve, Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, Fed, Mortgage, Association Locations: Chevron
Nonetheless, Jeep CEO Antonio Filosa believes the brand's worst days are behind it and it's still possible to achieve the 1 million sales target. Jeep salesFilosa said Jeep, which reports sales quarterly, saw U.S. sales rise last month: They were up 28% from August 2023 and 55% from July. The New York Stock Exchange welcomes The Jeep Brand (NYSE: STLA) to the podium, on May 31, 2024. Ahead of such vehicles, Jeep has increased its media spending by 20% compared with the first half of the year, according to the automaker. 2024 Jeep Wagoneer S EV Jeep
Persons: Michael Wayland, Antonio Filosa, Filosa, Cox, Filosa's, Carlos Tavares, Stellantis, Jeep, Lynn Martin, Tavares, Bob Broderdorf, Nathan Laine Organizations: CNBC DETROIT, Jeep, Cherokee, Cox Automotive, CNBC, Council, New York Stock Exchange, Brand, NYSE Group, NYSE, Fiat Chrysler, France's PSA Groupe, Paris, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S, EV Locations: U.S, American
From e-commerce firm Amazon to pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly , Morgan Stanley's top stocks to own for the next 12 months spans a wide array of sectors. The majority of Morgan Stanley's picks are tilted toward growth, with 67% of the picks meeting that classification. Here's a look at some of the stocks that Morgan Stanley says are worth owning over the next year. Amazon stock has added 23% in 2024. LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly stock.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Morgan, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley, Brian Nowak's, Nowak, Terence Flynn's, Eli Lilly's, LLY, Flynn Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Amazon, Pharma
Traders on the New York Stock Exchange floor on Sept. 9, 2024. Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesSeptember historically hasn't been kind to stock investors. September is the only month during that nearly century-long period in which investors experienced an average loss, according to Morningstar. Trying to time the market is a losing betAlistair Berg | Digitalvision | Getty ImagesInvestors holding their money in stocks for the long-term shouldn't bail, Yoder said. Don't put faith in market maximsSimilarly, investors shouldn't necessarily accept market maxims as truisms, experts said.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Morningstar, Abby Yoder, Yoder, Alistair Berg, Digitalvision, Edward McQuarrie, McQuarrie, couldn't, J.P Morgan Organizations: New York Stock, Getty, Morningstar Direct, Finance, Morgan Private Bank, Investors, Santa Clara University, Fidelity Investments, Federal Reserve, Investor, Mutual Locations: U.S, Wells, New York City, New York
Read previewThe US is moving toward a recession, as the economy is feeling the comedown after trillions of "unproductive" cash was pumped in during the pandemic, according to former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. AdvertisementBut most of the stimulus cash wasn't deployed productively, Ross said, pointing to Americans who "immediately spent" their checks in a wild shopping spree. Related storiesStrength in the labor market was also partly distorted by stimulus cash, he suggested. Hiring has steadily slowed over the past year, with the unemployment rate triggering one long-running recession indicator with a perfect track record. Most economists still agree that the economy remains on solid footing, given the rapid pace of growth and historically low unemployment rate.
Persons: , Wilbur Ross, Trump, Ross Organizations: Service, Commerce, Bloomberg, Business, Conference, Investor
New York CNN —For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. Still, there are plenty of instances when the yield curve uninverted and a recession wasn’t right around the corner. The most recent prior case of the yield curve uninverting was September 2019. (Disinversion and uninversion are both used to refer to a yield curve that returns to being in positive territory.) One reason she isn’t on edge is because the yield curve was inverted for a much longer stretch of time compared to other recent recessions.
Persons: that’s, Marco Giacoletti, ” “, Kristina Hooper, Hooper, ” Kevin Flanagan, , Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Flanagan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Southern California Marshall School of Business, CNN Locations: New York
U.S. firms say confidence in China has hit an all-time low
  + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Dylan Butts | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
American companies in China are experiencing historically low business confidence and poor profits amid U.S.-China tensions and a slowing Chinese economy. Firms have also lost market share to Chinese competitors which have received more government support, the U.S.-China Business Council added. Their struggles in China have also been felt by EU businesses, according to an EU Chamber of Commerce in China report released on Wednesday. On how the U.S. government could support their firms in China, nearly half of AmCham respondents suggested a reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods. Foreign direct investment into China fell by 29.6% during the January to July period compared to a year ago, according to China's Ministry of Commerce.
Persons: Allan Gabor, Jeff Yuan, Evelyn Cheng Organizations: U.S, American Chamber of Commerce, U.S ., China Business Council, China Business, EU, of Commerce, China's Ministry of Commerce Locations: Shanghai, American, China, Washington, Beijing, U.S, PwC China
In the first college admissions process since the Supreme Court struck down affirmative action last year, Asian American enrollment at the most prestigious U.S. schools paints a mixed, uneven picture. Columbia University — which, unlike the other Ivies, groups Pacific Islanders with Asian Americans — saw an increase of nine percentage points in its enrollment of Asian American applicants, while Brown saw an increase of four percentage points. It doesn’t mean that race is entirely ruled out of the admissions process, however. Poon, who is the author of “Asian American is Not a Color: Conversations about Race, Affirmative Action, and Family,” said that with race masked in the admissions process, concerns around biases are actually more prevalent. And it’s going to be difficult to determine, for example, why there were drops in Asian American enrollment at some schools as well.
Persons: , OiYan Poon, ” Poon, , Brown, St . Louis, Edward Blum, Hopi Hoekstra, ” Hoekstra, Jonathan Palumbo, Whitney Soule, Dartmouth —, John Roberts, ” Julie J, Poon Organizations: Ivy League, Yale, Princeton, Harvard, University of Illinois, Columbia University —, Pacific Islanders, MIT, Amherst College, Washington University, Conservative, Fair, NBC News, ” Harvard, of Arts and Sciences, Harvard Crimson, , University of Pennsylvania, — Cornell, Dartmouth, University of North, University of Maryland, Universities, Federal Student Aid, NBC Asian Locations: U.S, Columbia, Brown, University of Illinois Urbana, Champaign, St ., University of North Carolina, NBC Asian America
Some Donald Trump allies expressed concern over his debate performance. And Taylor Swift and Chappell Roan win big at the MTV VMAs. SpaceX / PolarisFour private citizens orbiting Earth in a SpaceX capsule are attempting to make history by completing the world’s first all-civilian spacewalk. During the outing, Isaacman and Gillis are expected to exit the SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule on a tether. Trump’s conspiracy-laced debate performance prompts concernsFormer President Donald Trump declared Tuesday’s debate against Vice President Kamala Harris a win, but not all his allies see it that way.
Persons: Donald Trump, Taylor Swift, Chappell Roan, Francine drenches, Francine, Jared Isaacman, Scott “ Kidd ” Poteet, Sarah Gillis, Anna Menon, Isaacman, Gillis, Kamala Harris, Harris ’, Trump, David Ingram, Matt Dixon, , Megan Thee, Britney Spears, hird, ong, Joh, els, ord Organizations: MTV, Angeles National Forest, SpaceX, Polaris, Air Force, Tech, Republican, Senior, Trump, Megan Thee Stallion, Doha Madani Locations: Louisiana, Southern California, Francine drenches Gulf, New Orleans, Alabama, Florida, California, San Bernardino County, Orange County, ord
But for the first time in recent political memory, the 2024 presidential race has left Florida as a comparative afterthought. It used to be …presidential elections, we would be on a razor’s edge about the state of Florida,” Gov. “With the work we have been doing and the grassroots momentum, Florida is competitive in 2024,” Florida Democratic Party Communications Director Eden Giagnorio said. They use Nikki Fried’s make-believe volunteer numbers," he said, referring to the Florida Democratic Party chairwoman. Last week, Harris campaign allies also started it “Fighting for Reproductive Freedom” bus tour in Florida, a starting line Democrats hyped as a sign of national relevance.
Persons: Ron DeSantis, Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump, , Eden Giagnorio, Paul Hennessy, Trump, Harris, Evan Power, Nikki Fried’s, Danielle Alvarez, , Matt Dixon, “ It’s, Kamala Harris, Steve Schale, ” Schale, ” Harris, Biden, Doug Emhoff Organizations: , Republican, Electoral, Democrats, Florida, Democratic, Cook, Florida Democratic Party, ” Florida Democratic Party Communications, Florida’s, Republican Party of Florida, Florida Democratic, “ Trump, NBC, Trump, Veteran Florida Democratic Locations: TALLAHASSEE, Fla, Florida, South Florida, ” Florida, Ron DeSantis , Florida, Orlando, Jacksonville
Republican vice presidential nominee Ohio Sen. JD Vance on Thursday took a shot at Apple on CNBC's "Squawk Box," stating he thinks the company benefits from "slave labor" in China. "Do I think Apple is an evil company? Do I think that sometimes they benefit from Chinese slave labor? "I think that a company that wants to benefit from American markets should also have to pay American workers a fair wage." Apple has previously stated that it has found no evidence of forced labor anywhere it operates.
Persons: Ohio Sen, JD Vance, Vance, Apple, Donald Trump, Lina Organizations: Ohio, Apple, Congressional, Commission, . Customs, U.S, Federal Trade Commission, Facebook, Meta, Google Locations: China, Vietnam, India, iPhones, New York City
Historically, a rate cut has been a signal for central banks in emerging markets, like India, to follow by easing monetary policy in their regions. The latest data shows that the inflation rate appears to be heading in the wrong direction in India. The headline inflation rate rose in August to 3.65% compared to 3.6% in the previous month. Instead, markets have simply hit snooze on a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India for the moment. If there's no global recession, a risk-on sentiment will likely help push up emerging market equities in the medium term after the U.S. central bank cuts rates.
Persons: Shah, Mahesh Nandurkar, Surendra Goyal, CNBC's, BofA, Banks Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of India, Reserve Bank, Capital Economics, India, greenback, Federal Reserve, Jefferies, Bank of America, Citi, India Research, Bank Locations: India, U.S
Thomas d'Halluin, Managing Partner of Airbus Ventures, at Hangar One of NASA Ames Research Center's Moffett Field in California. Airbus VenturesAirbus Ventures, one of the most prolific investors in space startups, has raised a $155 million fund that it plans to deploy across the burgeoning space sector, as well as the broader "deep tech" ecosystem. "This fund is designed to unlock new possibilities, and space is one of them," Thomas d'Halluin, managing partner of Airbus Ventures, told CNBC. Historically, deep tech is a classification for companies working on technologies that face steep scientific or engineering obstacles. Airbus Ventures currently has $465 million under management, with Fund-Y marking its fourth fund to date.
Persons: Thomas d'Halluin, d'Halluin Organizations: Airbus Ventures, NASA Ames Research, Moffett, Airbus Ventures Airbus Ventures, CNBC, Spaceflight, SpaceX Locations: California, European
Last year, Falconi successfully petitioned the Nevada Supreme Court, which ruled that the public has a constitutional right to access Family Court cases. While the court is scheduled to hold evidentiary hearings next week, a decision from the court on media access could come at any time. If a judge does agree to unseal the case, it could have major ripple effects for Nevada family courts. Some have argued that sealing family court cases helps protect the privacy of vulnerable people. Falconi is not working with the media coalition, but said he hopes the national media attention on the Murdoch case will tangentially help his mission.
Persons: Rupert Murdoch, , Murdoch’s, — Lachlan, James, Elisabeth, Prudence, Murdoch, Lachlan, James Murdoch, Kamala Harris, Elisabeth Murdoch, Alex Falconi, Falconi, St James, Victoria Jones, ” Falconi, , “ Doe, Rupert Murdoch “, , “ They’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, HBO, Fox Corporation, News Corporation, CNN, New York Times, Fox, News Corp, Street, New York Post, Silver State, Nevada, American Civil Liberties Union, Spencer, The New York Times, National Public Radio, Nevada Supreme, News Locations: New York, Reno , Nevada, Australia, Nevada, Washoe, “ Nevada, London
CNN —Four years ago, North Carolina voters handed Democrats one of the party’s toughest losses and one of its most consequential wins. The race to succeed the term-limited Cooper, however, seems to be leaning toward the Democratic nominee, North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein. But North Carolina is still a purple state with a history of elections decided by razor-thin margins. Mike Stewart/APA ticket-splitting stateHistorically, North Carolina voters have favored ticket-splitting. “There’s no connection between the gubernatorial ticket and presidential ticket,” said North Carolina Republican strategist Paul Shumaker.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Roy Cooper, Kamala Harris, Harris, Cooper, Josh Stein, Stein, Mark Robinson’s, Sen, Thom Tillis, Pat McCrory, Robinson, , ” Jonathan Felts, , ” Felts, Mike Stewart, Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama, McCrory, HB2, Trump, Hillary Clinton, Paul Shumaker, “ There’s, don’t, He’s, Mark Robinson, ” Robinson, Mike Lonergan, ” Stein, Morgan Hopkins, “ Martin Luther King, It’s, ” Trump, Susan Myers, ” Myers, “ Mark’s, Grant Baldwin, Anderson Clayton, “ He’s, Adam Stein –, Deloris Rhodes, she’s, ” Rhodes, Heather Horak, , Obama, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Horak, wasn’t, he’s, ” CNN’s David Wright Organizations: CNN, North, Democratic Gov, Republican, Trump, Democratic, GOP, Democrats, Democrat, North Carolina Republican Council of State, Labor, Republicans, ” North Carolina, AP, North Carolina Republican, Quinnipiac, Fox, America, Democratic Governors Association, Republican Governors Association, , , Getty, Dartmouth, Harvard University, Ivy League, Army Reserves, University of North, Greensboro City, Facebook, Wilmington Business, State Board of Education, Wilmington Locations: North Carolina, Charlotte, Greensboro, , Raleigh, McCrory’s, Asheville, Pink Hill , North Carolina, Charlotte , North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Carolina, University of North Carolina, Parkland , Florida, Wilmington
The federal government and many state governments are passing laws and regulations designed to reduce our use of fossil fuels and increase renewable energy production. Now let's talk about energy production. Big picture, America's production of oil, natural gas, and renewables is growing with natural gas growing most of all. In 1950, natural gas was about 18% of total US energy production. As for oil, US domestic crude oil production has more than doubled since 2000.
Persons: Steve Ballmer, That's Organizations: Insider Studios, LA Clippers, US, Buildings, Transportation, Global Locations: United States, America, China, Russia, Ukraine, Venezuela
We started buying Home Depot shares last week as a play on housing and interest rates. Our Home Depot investment thesis is all about a pickup in housing turnover, the main driver of the home improvement retailer's sales. When rates went below 6.5% toward the end of last year, he explained, there was an immediate increase in housing activity, mortgage applications, and mortgage refinance applications. Mortgage rates with a 5% handle could be on the horizon, at least that's what Toll Brothers CEO Doug Yearley thinks. With these numbers, it's easy to see why Decker is optimistic that activity will normalize, and housing turnover and remodel activity will pick-up again.
Persons: Ted Decker, Doug Yearley, Yearley, Decker, Lowe's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Home Depot, Dow, Depot, Toll, Home, Management, CNBC
New York CNN —The McDonald’s $5 meal deal is staying on menus until December, a sign that inflation-weary customers are devouring value meals recently offered by fast food chains. The Chicago-based fast-food giant announced the $5 meal deal in June. In July, McDonald’s said that the vast majority of restaurants would keep it on the menu until August. The meal features either a McChicken sandwich or McDouble cheeseburger, small fries, 4-piece Chicken McNuggets and a small soft drink. McDonald’s also announced a slew of fall deals — from $0.50 Double Cheeseburgers for National Cheeseburger Day on Sept. 18 to a $2 McCrispy sandwich for National Fried Chicken Sandwich Day on Nov. 9.
Persons: McDonald’s, Chris Kempczinski, Burger, we’re, ” Joe Erlinger Organizations: New, New York CNN, McDonald’s USA Locations: New York, Chicago
The pace of inflation likely moderated again in August — further relief for beleaguered consumers still smarting from pandemic-era price shocks. Though price growth has largely returned to the Federal Reserve's official 2% target, the sting of rapid price increases over the past four years lingers for many consumers. The latest inflation report is likely to cement a 0.25% cut in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate, currently at about 5.3%, later this month. But experts say it will take some time for consumers to feel the impact of the lower interest rate — and the relatively small size of the cut means borrowing costs will still be somewhat elevated. While the Fed is now widely expected to cut interest rates, a cut of just 0.25% may not be enough to stave off that scenario.
Persons: , There's, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Zillow, Paul, ” Marina Walsh, ” Walsh, Torsten Slok, Slok, Sophia Kearney, Jerome Powell's, Kearney, Lederman Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve's, Democratic, Labor Statistics, Princeton, , Mortgage Bankers Association, Apollo Global Management, FHN, NBC News, Fed Locations: U.S, New York, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, St, Las Vegas, Phoenix
Read previewLast night's contentious debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris brought the looming presidential election fully into the mainstream, even for those who've been trying to block it out. However, strategists at Oppenheimer Research believe those who ignore the election — and the implications that electing Trump or Harris may bring — do so at their peril. Advertisement"This playbook is intended to help investors navigate trading dynamics around the elections," Oppenheimer strategists wrote in a September 9 note. "We expect US foreign policy toward China to become more restrictive over the next four years, irrespective of who wins the election," Oppenheimer strategists wrote. AdvertisementBelow are seven stocks with an outperform rating from Oppenheimer analysts and can survive regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats emerge victorious this fall.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, who've, Harris, Steve Eisman, Bernstein, Oppenheimer, Biden Organizations: Service, Investors, Business, Oppenheimer Research, Trump, Republicans Locations: China
Following the trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 100 shares of HD, increasing its weighting in the portfolio to about 1.1% from roughly 0.56%. Rates will come down and activity should pick up after the Fed gets a few rate cuts under its belt. That, at least, is what Toll Brothers CEO Doug Yearley said on "Squawk on the Street" earlier Wednesday when speaking about 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates and the luxury homebuilder's business. If Yearley is correct, then it won't be too long until mortgage rates are at a sweet spot where housing turnover really starts to pick up. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Doug Yearley, it's, Yearley, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Fed, Toll, CNBC
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