Top related persons:
Top related locs:
Top related orgs:

Search resuls for: "Fedwatch"


25 mentions found


The meeting wraps up Wednesday afternoon, with the release of the Fed's rate decision coming at 2 p.m. "I hope they cut 50 basis points, but I suspect they'll cut 25. Here's a breakdown of what's on tap:The rate waitThe FOMC has been holding its benchmark fed funds rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% since it last hiked in July 2023. The 'dot plot'Perhaps just as important as the rate cut will be the signals meeting participants send about where they expect rates to go from here. In June, FOMC members penciled in just one rate cut through the end of the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik, they'll, Mark Zandi, that's, Tom Simons, Zandi, Robert Kaplan, There'll, Seema Shah, FOMC, Moody's, Goldman Sachs, Powell presser, Goldman, Simons Organizations: Federal Reserve, Committee, Moody's, Wall, Jefferies, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Asset Management Locations: Washington , DC
A trader works, as a screen broadcasts a news conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on June 12, 2024. Stock futures were flat in overnight trading Tuesday as Wall Street anticipated a long-awaited rate cut from the Federal Reserve following an aggressive multiyear hiking campaign aimed at tamping down hot inflation. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 28 points, while S&P 500 futures hovered near the flatline. Investors remain on high alert ahead of the first expected rate cut from the Fed at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday. CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows traders pricing in a 63% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and 37% odds of a 25 basis point move.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Peter Cecchini, Axonic, CNBC's Organizations: Federal, New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Fed
Gary Hershorn | Corbis News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineTechnology stocks benefit the most from low interest rates, conventional market wisdom says. When rates are low, that proposition appears attractive because returns are low elsewhere. This implies investors have been moving out of tech to other sectors that might experience tailwinds amid lower rates.
Persons: Gary Hershorn, Goldman Sachs, Christopher Barto, It's, CNBC's Hakyung Kim, Pia Singh, Yun Li Organizations: Trade Center, Corbis, CNBC, Nvidia, Meta, U.S . Federal, VanEck Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fort Pitt Capital Locations: Manhattan, Jersey City , New Jersey
As expected, the Fed has been coy about cuts, leaving markets torn between pricing in a 25- or 50-basis-point reduction. "In cycles where rate cuts were able to prolong economic expansion and keep corporate earnings on an upward trend, stocks performed quite well," Belski wrote in a mid-September note. AdvertisementWhile rate cuts aren't a cure-all, Belski is confident that the economic expansion will continue, which will keep this bull market on firm footing. "But with significantly strong trailing one-year performance headed into this initial rate cut, future gains are likely to be more muted relative to historical norms." Sectors poised to outperform as the Fed finally cuts ratesAfter outlining how US stocks broadly have fared following cuts in the last four decades, BMO shared relative sector performance before and after periods of rate declines.
Persons: , that's, Ohsung Kwon, Brian Belski, Belski Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, " Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Fed, BMO Locations: bankable, Montreal
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Debating P & G: We remain torn over traditional slowdown stocks like Procter & Gamble and other defensive consumer stocks. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, we're, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Wells Fargo, It's, we've, Hock Tan, Rene Haas, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Charlie Scharf, Patrick T, Fallon Organizations: CNBC, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Micron, Currency, Procter, Gamble, Colgate, Palmolive, Broadcom, Arm, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Milken Institute Global Conference, Afp, Getty Locations: stock's, Wells Fargo, Beverly Hills , California
Stocks are set to climb higher for at least the next few weeks, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee pointed to the Fed's policy meeting, with markets expecting a rate cut on Wednesday. A Fed rate cut will be bullish for stocks, regardless of its size, he told CNBC. AdvertisementWall Street has been anticipating rate cuts for months, especially as the economy has shown some weakness stemming from tighter financial conditions. However, stocks should move higher regardless of the size of the rate cut, Lee said, so long as central bankers assure markets that more cuts are coming.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, , Powell Organizations: CNBC, Service, Bureau of Labor, New York Fed
Fed funds futures have fully priced in that the central bank will lower interest rates, according to CME's FedWatch tool . Many now expect the Fed will achieve the coveted "soft landing" outcome, which means inflation is curbed without tipping the economy into a recession. Rate cuts without a recession has historically been a positive mixture for stocks. Given this backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for names that have performed nicely in past periods where the Fed pulled rates lower without the U.S. economy tipping into a recession. To find these companies, CNBC Pro searched the S & P 500 for members with the highest median gain one year after the Fed has cut rates without an official recession.
Persons: Genuity, LSEG, Paul Lejuez, WMT Organizations: Reserve, CNBC Pro, Nike, Dow Jones Industrial, Intel, Boeing, Walmart, Dow, Citi, Wall Locations: U.S, Rochester , New York
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was less than one basis point lower at 3.6401%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower on Monday as investors looked ahead to this week's Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision. The Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision are top of mind for investors this week, with the central bank's meeting kicking off Tuesday and concluding Wednesday. Markets are anticipating a rate cut from the Fed, the first since it began hiking rates in March 2022, but uncertainty about how big the reduction will be has been widespread. The central bank is also set to publish its latest economic projections on Wednesday.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Reserve, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of England
According to CME FedWatch, which estimates interest rate changes based on market predictions, the size of the rate cut is a coin toss. As of Friday afternoon, there's a 51% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points and a 49% chance it'll be an extra-large 50-basis-point cut. That's because a larger rate cut makes borrowing cheaper, which tends to drive up spending and fuel price increases. Rate cuts will also eventually make it cheaper for small businesses to take out loans. A rate cut could cause a rush of buyers to enter the market in the short term, driving up prices and competition.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Michael Madowitz, she's, McTier, it'll, Mark Hamrick, Banks, Hamrick, NerdWallet, Sara Rathner Organizations: Service, Federal, CME FedWatch, Federal Reserve, Business, Washington Center for Equitable Growth, Fed, Consumer Financial, Bureau, asheffey Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, McTier
Oil prices inch up on Fed rate cut outlook
  + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices edged up in early trade on Monday amid expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut this week, though gains were capped by U.S. supply resumptions following Hurricane Francine and weaker China data. Brent crude futures for November were up 15 cents, or 0.2% at $71.76 a barrel at 0015 GMT. U.S. crude futures for October were up 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $68.88 a barrel. Still, nearly a fifth of crude oil production and 28% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico remain offline in the hurricane's aftermath. A key factor that will dominate the market this week is how aggressive a rate cut the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver following its Sept. 17-18 meeting.
Persons: Francine, Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel Organizations: Brent, U.S . Federal, FedWatch, ANZ, Republican Locations: Tatarstan, Russia, U.S, China, Mexico, Gulf, Florida, Iran, Israel
Ideally the Fed will cut rates by a half-point without triggering growth worries, Morgan Stanley says. According to new research from Morgan Stanley, that would be the best possible outcome for stocks. Ahead of the rate cut, Morgan Stanley suggested that investors increase exposure to two stock cohorts that have historically outperformed in similar environments: defensive and high-quality. Defensive stocks include sectors such as utilities and consumer staples — groups that are less reliant on macroeconomic conditions to perform well. Large caps also tend to outperform small caps both before and after the Fed's first rate cut.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, , Morgan, cyclicals, Wilson Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve
Kevin Dietsch | Getty ImagesA flurry of major central banks will hold monetary policy meetings this week, with investors bracing for interest rate moves in either direction. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to join others around the world in starting its own rate-cutting cycle. Elsewhere, Brazil's central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting across Tuesday and Wednesday. Traffic outside the Central Bank of Brazil headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil, on Monday, June 17, 2024. The central bank delivered its first interest rate cut in more than four years at the start of August.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Kevin Dietsch, John Bilton, CNBC's, Bilton, David Volpe, Volpe, 25bps, Wilson Ferrarezi, BOE, Ruben Segura Cayuela Organizations: Federal Reserves, Washington , D.C, Federal, Traders, The Bank of England, Norway's Norges Bank, South Africa's, Bank, Bank of Japan, Morgan Asset Management, European, Bank of England, ECB, Emerald Asset Management, Banco Central, TS Lombard, Central Bank of, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Brazil's, Brazil, Central Bank of Brazil, Brasilia, South Africa, Norway, Japan
Gold prices at all-time highs as traders eye deeper U.S. rate cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices climbed to a two-week high on Thursday as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to cutting interest rates as early as September. Gold prices surged to record highs on Monday, driven by a softer dollar and expectations of a larger interest rate reduction by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,588.29 per ounce, as of 0551 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,589.23 earlier in the session. This would be Fed's first rate cut since 2020. Zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment amid lower interest rates and geopolitical turmoil.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Tim Waterer, Donald Trump Organizations: Federal, U.S . Federal Reserve, KCM, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Republican, FBI Locations: China, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea
US stocks were mixed on Monday ahead of the Fed's expected rate cut later in the week. Fed fund futures show markets see odds of a 50 basis point cut as more likely than a 25 basis point move. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks were mixed on Monday ahead of a major Federal Reserve meeting that's expected to deliver the first interest rate cut in four years. Treasury yields dipped, with the 10-year bond down about one basis point to 3.64%.
Persons: , it's, Dan Ives, Powell, Ives Organizations: Treasury, Service, Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fed, Wedbush Securities, Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, Here's
The S & P 500 is on the verge of something unexpected — especially for September. The broad market index entered the week less than 1% below a record last reached in July. Krinky isn't the only one on the Street treading carefully with the S & P 500 near record highs. "With the S & P 500 close to our YE 2024 price target again, we remain neutral on the S & P 500 for now," wrote Lori Calvasina, head of global equity research at RBC Capital Markets. "However, after a sharp move lower in 10-year yields, the earnings yield gap for the S & P 500 is starting to head in a more favorable direction for stocks," Calvasina added.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG, Krinsky, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Mark Mahaney Organizations: Traders, Federal, Market Committee, RBC Capital Markets, ISI, of Justice
Stocks in the firm's coverage universe have "significantly front-loaded expected rate cut benefits, well in excess of prior fed cycles," he said. The chances of a smaller 25 basis point cut have fallen to a 41% chance. Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley is watching the data very closely as well and said a lot will depend on how consumers react as mortgage rates fall. Bouley said this is one of the clearest signs yet that a recent decline in mortgage rates is bringing buyers into the market. Slightly more than half the analysts who cover the stock rate it a buy or overweight, it said.
Persons: Mike Dahl, Dahl, Toll, Taylor Morrison, Matthew Bouley, Bouley, Horton Organizations: Federal Reserve, RBC Capital Markets, Tri, Tri Pointe Homes, Toll, RBC, KB, Barclays Locations: Tri Pointe, staving, Horton
Currencies listless as markets waffle over Fed rate cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
A quarter-point reduction by the Fed as it kicks off its rate cuts is still seen as the slightly more likely outcome, but only marginally so. Futures price a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts in 2024. Investors are also looking to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Friday, when it is expected to keep its short-term policy rate target steady at 0.25%. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem meanwhile opened the door to stepping up the pace of interest rate cuts, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. The BoC, after keeping its key policy rate at 5%, a more than two-decade high, for a year, has trimmed it by a quarter point three times in a row since June.
Persons: Chris Weston, Fumio Kishida, Sanae Takaichi, Christine Lagarde, Philip R, Lane, Luis de Guindos Organizations: U.S, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Fed, FedWatch, Bank of, Liberal Democratic Party, Sterling, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of Canada, Financial Times, BoC Locations: Japan, Asia, China, South Korea
With the Federal Reserve expected to begin its rate-cutting cycle this week, investors should take advantage of this "golden age of fixed income" now, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder. "The world is changing," said Rieder, the asset manager's global chief investment officer of fixed income. In this environment, Rieder likes the belly of the curve and assets like securitized products , high yield and European credit. BINC currently has about 28% of its assets in non-U.S. credit and about 20% in U.S. high-yield bonds. Rieder is not concerned about the narrow spreads in high-yield credit.
Persons: BlackRock's Rick Rieder, , Rieder, BINC, We've, CLOs Organizations: Federal Reserve, SEC, Fed, AAA, MBS, AAA CLOs Locations: BlackRock, Europe, U.S
CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday that investors shouldn't panic over the size of the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut this week. Instead, they should focus on the stocks that will benefit from the easing monetary policy. He stressed, "What matters is we're in a rate cut cycle. In a rate cut cycle, you buy a lot of stocks that … should really start accelerating because they've been hurt." When central bankers announce their next policy move, Cramer said that there will likely be some market volatility regardless of the size of the reduction.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Stanley Blacker, Decker, Stanley Black Organizations: Stanley, Trust, CNBC Locations: U.S, Cramer's
The S & P 500 rebounded 4% this past week, almost clawing back all of the prior week's horrible decline. Fed watch The Fed is the big market event this week. ET: Fed rate decision Before the bell: General Mills (GIS) After the bell: Steelcase (SCS) Thursday, Sept. 19 8:30 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang's, Goldman Sachs, Jim, Huang, Lisa Su, Su, Vimal Kapur, Morgan, Brian Niccol, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, They're, Lennar, Doug Yearley, Mills, LEN, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Federal, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Club, Technology, CNBC, Oracle, Devices, TAM, Apple, Honeywell, Starbucks, Barclays Global Financial Services, Fed, FedEx, homebuilder, Home Depot, Darden, Jim Cramer's Charitable, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Las Vegas, U.S, America, Horton, New York City
A specials trader works at his post on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 11, 2024. Stock futures edged slightly lower Sunday night as investors await the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated policy meeting, during which central bankers are expected to cut rates for the first time since 2020. S&P 500 futures hovered below the flatline, while futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 4 points, or less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its July record and could notch a new all-time high this week. Central bankers are set to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and are widely anticipated to make their first interest rate cut since they began hiking rates in March 2022.
Persons: Brian Belski, Mills, Olive Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, BMO Capital, Darden, FedEx, homebuilder Locations: New York City, U.S, Olive Garden
A week's worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. "We got two more months of good inflation data" since the last Fed meeting, Claudia Sahm, chief economist for New Century Advisors, said in a CNBC interview Friday. Futures markets for most of the past week had lasered in on a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, rate cut. The inflation data "on its own would have gotten us 25 next week, as it should, and will get us a whole string of cuts after that," she said. [Fed officials] need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut and then be ready to do more."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, Sahm Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, Federal Reserve, Federal, New Century Advisors, CNBC, Fed Locations: Washington ,
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over four basis points to 3.6364%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than six basis points lower to 3.5824%. Attention began to turn to the Federal Reserve meeting next week at which the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates. Traders were last pricing in a 59% chance of a 12-basis-point rate cut and a 41% probability of a 50-basis-point reduction, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The Fed's meeting is set to begin Tuesday before concluding Wednesday, with the interest rate decision and a post-meeting press conference.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Traders, PPI, Dow
The Federal Reserve is set to meet Tuesday and Wednesday — and is is widely anticipated to make its first interest rate cut after embarking on a hiking campaign in March 2022. As it is, stocks are headed for a winning week ahead of the meeting. On Friday, the CME FedWatch tool showed markets were split how big the rate cut would be. Investors will also watch what Fed policymakers will signal in its summary of economy projections regarding future policy moves. He worries that stocks will rally heading into the central bank meeting, with investors possibly selling the news afterward.
Persons: It's, disinflation, Chadha, CNBC's, Dave Sekera, Giuseppe Sette, Sette, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Morningstar's Sekera, Bank Asset Management Group's Bill Northey, Mills, homebuilder Organizations: Federal, Deutsche Bank, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Morningstar, U.S, Bank Asset Management Group's, Olive, Darden, FedEx, Index, Retail, Manufacturing, Housing, Philadelphia Fed Locations: U.S, Olive Garden, NAHB
The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all posted gains amid rate cut speculation. Odds of a 50 basis point cut rose sharply this week from about 30% to 49%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notched a five-day win streak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged almost 300 points. Odds are split 49% / 51% for a 50 basis point or 25 basis point rate cut, respectively. Advertisement"A less aggressive Fed rate outlook could spark some volatility given market expectations," Adam said.
Persons: Dow Jones, , Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Dow, Open, Fed, Markets
Total: 25