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☆ Recession is likely to bump inflation out of the driver's seat for the economy — so investors should brace for uncertainty, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession is likely to replace inflation as the driver of the economy in 2023, Mohamed El-Erian said. The global economy and investment portfolios would face a bigger range of potential outcomes, he said. The top economist warned US inflation will stay stubborn at around 4% because the Fed acted too late. "In this new year, recession, actual and feared, has joined inflation in the driver seat of the global economy and is likely to displace it," El-Erian said in a Financial Times opinion column Monday. "They should keep an open mind, if only to avoid repeating the mistake of prematurely dismissing inflation as transitory," he added.

☆ The Fed isn't going to make things easy for the market and stocks still have at least another 7% to fall, JPMorgan's chief equities strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks still have at least 7% more to fall before hitting a bottom, according to JPMorgan's chief stock strategist Dubravko Lakos. He told CNBC that earnings estimates for 2023 are still too high, and the Fed would likely stay restrictive on monetary policy. "I don't think the Fed is going to make it easy for the market. He predicted the S&P 500 will dip at least to 3,600, representing a 7% decline from current levels, particularly since central bankers are expected to keep interest rates restrictive. The Fed hiked interest rates by 425 basis points last year to rein in inflation, leading the S&P 500 to sink 20% for its worst losses since 2008.

☆ Here's why Wall Street is warning the Fed blew it on inflation and it won't save the stock market from crashing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Fed blew it on inflation stocks are going to have to suffer as a result. The central bank has no choice now but to keep hiking until inflation is down, experts have said. Here are five top voices in markets warning investors not to pin their hopes on a Fed put to save stocks. El-Erian has been a loud critic of the Fed's response to inflation this year, slamming central bankers for saying inflation was "transitory" in 2021. That's the cost of the Fed being late to the game, and the central bank can't back away from its monetary tightening now, El-Erian warned.

☆ Investors moving to cash over worries that Fed will overdo rate hikes, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors moving to cash over worries that Fed will overdo rate hikes, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens’ College, joins CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss why institutional investors have been moving to cash over worries that the Fed could overdo hiking rates as it fights inflation.

☆ Fed faces 'difficult road' going into 2023 with prospect of recession and inflation, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed faces 'difficult road' going into 2023 with prospect of recession and inflation, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins CNBC's "Squawk Box" to discuss recession forecasts and the prospect of 'sticky' inflation in 2023.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Mohamed El-Erian on Fed's tough decisions coming in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Mohamed El-Erian on Fed's tough decisions coming in 2023Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss recession forecasts and the prospect of 'sticky' inflation in 2023.

☆ The US is heading for a 'swamp' recession which could mire the economy in a disappointing and slow recovery
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Kelly told Insider the recovery may be considered "tepid" given it will be a "mild improvement in things." David Kelly, chief global strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management, called it a "'swamp' recession" in a note, suggesting the "economy would likely struggle to get out of" what is potentially a mild recession. It's like standing on the edge of a swamp," Kelly told Insider. "The problem this time around is two-fold," Kelly told Insider. In short, Kelly told Insider that a modest recovery from a shallow recession could be viewed as "tepid" as it will be a "mild improvement in things."

☆ Markets shouldn't get caught up in recession fears, and the Fed's credibility is near an all-time high, Jefferies' chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets shouldn't fixate on the potential for a recession, Jefferies' chief market strategist says. David Zervos pointed to strong economic data and anchored inflation expectations - a sign that the Fed has restored its credibility. The Fed probably needed to engineer a lot of this aggregate demand slowdown to anchor inflation expectations," Zervos said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday. But economic data remains strong, Zervos noted, which is buffering the shock of Fed rate hikes. "They've done it," Zervos said of the Fed anchoring the market's inflation expectations.

☆ Mohamed El-Erian paints markets as fixated on a 'dynamite' rate-hike slowdown by the Fed as he imagines a heart-to-heart between the two
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian believes the Fed and financial markets aren't listening to what the other is signaling. He believes markets are fixing on the news they want to hear and not on the Fed's warnings. You are definitely going to slow the pace of interest rate hikes starting as early as this month!" Powell signaled at Brookings that the Fed could slow the pace of interest rate hikes as soon as this month. But the Fed's messages just aren't getting through to markets on just hearing the good news — and that's not good for the health of the US and global economies, Mohamed El-Erian believes.

Blackstone (BX.N) limited withdrawals from its $69 billion unlisted REIT on Thursday after redemption requests hit pre-set limits amid investor concerns it was slow to adjust valuations as interest rate surged, a source close to the fund said. The development is yet another reminder of the risks facing not just sectors that are sensitive to higher interest rates but also broader financial markets, which have rallied sharply on hopes that interest rate hikes will slow. "REITS had a fantastic performance for a couple of months but when you have that outperformance, investors don't react to traditional fundamental signals such as rising rates," she said. But in recent weeks expectations have risen that the Fed will "pivot" from aggressive tightening, prompting investors to price in lower peak interest rates. Blackstone has reported a 9.3% year-to-date net return for the REIT, while the publicly traded Dow Jones U.S.

☆ Inflation will continue to decline, although it could be sticky, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will continue to decline, although it could be sticky, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens’ College, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down his market outlook following new comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on interest rates.

☆ Markets 'completely ignored' Powell's balanced inflation remarks and are not pricing in key risks, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are dismissing inflation risks after Powell signaled rate hikes may slow, Mohamed El-Erian said. But inflation is likely to stay sticky next year, and there are still credit and earnings risks for stocks. "So the marketplace is saying inflation risks are over. The market isn't focusing yet on credit and earnings risk, and that's because … there's no sign of a recession," El-Erian added. So keep an open mind, and let's not repeat the mistake of last year, when we all embraced transitory inflation," El-Erian said.

☆ The economy is already in a 'rolling recession', and that could set stocks up for a better 2023, Charles Schwab investment chief says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is already in a "rolling recession," according to Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders. Sonders said that could soon weigh on corporate earnings, with more downside possible for stocks. "We're already in a version of recession, we've been talking about it in the context of a rolling recession. A rolling recession means those losses could soon spread to corporate earnings, Sonders said, which would likely hit the stock market sector by sector rather than crashing all at once. If a recession is mild and the job market holds up, that could mean a better environment for stocks in the second half of 2023.

☆ Markets should brace for a period of central bank-induced turmoil before the Fed dials back on rate hikes, and stocks could soon retest recent lows, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks could be in for another bout of volatility before the Fed pivots from aggressive rate hikes, JPMorgan warned. That's because the Fed and other central banks could inject more volatility before backing down from raising rates. Stocks could retest recent lows in the first quarter of 2023, strategists predicted. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said the odds of a recession were "virtually 100%" if the Fed continued hiking rates into 2023. That would take the fed funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%.

☆ Here’s how China’s COVID lockdown protests are sparking unrest across markets and rattling the global investing landscape.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Today we're going over what the ongoing protests in China mean for markets and investors. While the protests in China have been largely peaceful, some protesters have been met with violence from the authorities. Anti-government protests have erupted from Shanghai to Beijing as citizens rise up in opposition of China's zero-COVID policies. "Markets don't like bad news, and protests are bad news," Laffer told me on a phone call yesterday. China protests over lockdown measures could mean inflation gets stuck at 4%, according to Mohamed El-Erian.

☆ Recession predictions are too complacent, and there isn't enough evidence that a coming downturn will be short and shallow, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's not enough evidence an incoming recession will be short and shallow, Mohamed El-Erian warned. El-Erian noted that mild recession calls were similar to the ways people dismissed rising inflation last year. "I hope we don't end up in a recession, but if we do, there isn't enough evidence to suggest it's short and shallow." If we end up in a recession it will be short and shallow.' "I hope we don't end up in a recession, but if we do, there isn't enough evidence to suggest it's short and shallow," El-Erian warned.

☆ Covid unrest in China will not impact the Fed's moves against inflation, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCovid unrest in China will not impact the Fed's moves against inflation, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss what the protests in China over the country's zero-Covid policies mean for markets.

☆ Brace for 'violent' shocks that may reshape the global economy forever, warns top economist Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The global economy is headed for a severe recession, Mohamed El-Erian has warned. The economist expects "more uncertainty in the future as shocks grow more frequent and more violent". Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. The economist said on Tuesday that a combination of pressures on supply, central bank tightening, and market "fragility" were all likely to weigh on growth. Read more: Top economist Mohamed El-Erian says the FTX crypto fiasco will keep regulators up at night as they scramble to catch up

☆ The Fed has smashed the housing market and killed rampant speculation - and that means 'we're almost there' with inflation, former PIMCO chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed has smashed the housing market and killed rampant speculation, according to PIMCO's former chief economist. He pointed to the doubling of mortgage rates and trouble in crypto as signs the Fed has sufficiently tightened. Mortgage rates have doubled and home buying activity is set to slump, meaning the housing market is "down for the count," McCulley said. "The housing market is smashed, the enthusiasm for speculation in the marketplace [that] was rampant in 2021 has been removed," McCulley said. Inflation clocked in at 7.7% in October's inflation report, below economists' expectations of 8% inflation.

☆ Regulators punishing crypto firms for FTX's meltdown 'makes no sense' since most trading activity is offshore, Coinbase CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Regulators punishing crypto firms after FTX's crash "makes no sense," according to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. In a tweet, Armstrong pointed to the fact that most crypto trading activity takes place offshore. Binance has since walked away, with the troubled crypto exchange now facing probes by regulators on its handling of client funds. But Armstrong suggested regulatory action may be limited, due to the fact that FTX, which now faces possible bankruptcy, was an offshore crypto exchange not regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Top economist Mohamed El-Erian said that FTX's downfall would keep crypto regulators up at night playing "catch-up".

☆ The Fed cannot step in to provide stimulus this time, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed cannot step in to provide stimulus this time, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss Binance's planned acquisition of crypto exchange FTX, what the midterm election results mean for the economy, and more.

☆ Recession probability is 'uncomfortably high,' says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession probability is 'uncomfortably high,' says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens’ College, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss his expectations for a U.S. recession and more.

☆ Stocks crashed 50% in the 2008 crisis. Here's how bad Jamie Dimon, Nouriel Roubini, Michael Burry, and other top commentators see it getting in the next recession.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Here's how bad a the next downturn could hit the stock market, according to five top experts. The stock market cratered from 2008-2009, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending at a low of 6,594 in March 2009, down more than 50% from its peak before the recession. With warning signs piling up, here's what five experts have to say about the next recession and what's in store for the stock market. "This is just the beginning of that pain," Roubini said of a potential repeat of the 2008 recession. He's voiced concerns about financial stability, warning markets that the Fed could "break something" on the way to reducing inflation.

☆ Comeback has legs? Investors are piling into single stocks at a near historic pace, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors are swarming back into the stock market at a near-record pace with equities in the middle of a rapid rebound, according to Bank of America. Inflows into single stocks, as a percentage of S & P 500 market cap, over the last three weeks were in the 99th percentile of history since 2008, Bank of America said. The Wall Street firm aggregated flows across many execution platforms and trading desks, and the data included hedge funds, institutional clients and private clients. Bank of America said its clients were net buyers of U.S. equities for six straight weeks with inflows into both stocks and ETFs. Still, some on Wall Street don't believe this rally has lasting power as the Fed still hasn't taken inflation under control.

☆ Jerome Powell and the Fed's 'band of lunatics' are getting inflation all wrong and their actions will break trust in capitalism, billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Powell as his "band of lunatics" have gotten inflation all wrong, Barry Sternlicht told Fortune. He criticized the Fed's delayed response on inflation and for reacting to lagging indicators. Its actions could result in a policy error that breaks trust in capitalism, he warned in the interview. I think they're just wrong," he said, slamming the Fed's inflation response an interview with Fortune on Friday. "You're going to have social unrest ... And it's just because of Jay Powell and his band of lunatics," he added.

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