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The S&P 500 alone has generated an average return of 7% during presidential election years since 1952, according to LPL Financial. If you limit that to election years in which the incumbent president is running for reelection, the average jumps to 12.2%. Yes, but: Market volatility in an election year tends to pick up in October and there are many months left in this cycle with potential surprises to come. “An autumn pullback fits well time wise with potential downside earnings revisions, make-or-break decision time for the Fed, and election uncertainty. The first round of the French election will be held on June 30, with a second round on July 7.
Persons: Goldman Sachs —, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, they’re, It’s, Goldman Sachs ’ Scott Rubner, , , Mark Hackett, Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jim Reid, There’s, Emmanuel Macron, Katie Nixon, Chris Isidore ., they’ve, Samantha Murphy Kelly, ChatGPT —, Siri —, OpenAI, Siri, ChatGPT, hasn’t, Organizations: London CNN — Traders, Investors, White, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Nasdaq, Citigroup, Goldman, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Deutsche, Fed, United, Labour Party, Renaissance, Northern Trust Wealth Management, Alaska Airlines, Alaska —, Southwest —, Southwest, Railway Labor, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Samsung, Cyberspace Administration, Wall, IDC Locations: United States, France, , Alaska, China
Some Wall Street banks, worried that landlords of vacant and struggling office buildings won’t be able to pay off their mortgages, have begun offloading their portfolios of commercial real estate loans hoping to cut their losses. It’s an early but telling sign of the broader distress brewing in the commercial real estate market, which is hurting from the twin punches of high interest rates, which make it harder to refinance loans, and low occupancy rates for office buildings — an outcome of the pandemic. Late last year, an affiliate of Deutsche Bank and another German lender sold the delinquent mortgage on the Argonaut, a 115-year-old office complex in midtown Manhattan, to the family office of the billionaire investor George Soros, according to court filings. Around the same time, Goldman Sachs sold loans it held on a portfolio of troubled office buildings in New York, San Francisco and Boston. And in May, the Canadian lender CIBC completed a sale of $300 million of mortgages on a collection of office buildings around the country.
Persons: It’s, George Soros, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Argonaut, CIBC Locations: Manhattan, New York, San Francisco, Boston
Read previewAmerica's stimulus-fueled shopping spree looks just about over — and lower spending could be a signal that a consumer-led downturn is on the horizon, economic experts say. Retail spending ticked 0.1% higher in May, but sales volume has dropped 1.3% year-over-year over the last three months, US Census data shows. That adds to a 4% decline in retail sales in the first quarter — and it's a strong sign the long-awaited consumer recession is on the horizon, economist David Rosenberg said recently. "Early signs of a consumer recession finally coming to the fore." AdvertisementThe US has 52% chance of slipping into recession by May of next year, according to projections from the New York Fed.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Stephanie Pomboy, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Business, McKinsey, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Pantheon Macroeconomics
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInterest rate differential is the biggest driver of Asian currency weakness: Deutsche BankSameer Goel of Deutsche Bank says that "dollar exceptionalism" and interest rate differentials are behind the devaluation of Asian currencies.
Persons: Bank Sameer Goel Organizations: Bank, Deutsche Bank
Nvidia 's furious rally to become the king of the megacap stocks has also put it above the entire stock market value of some of the world's largest economies. On Tuesday, Nvidia surpassed $3.3 trillion in market capitalization, moving it ahead of Microsoft as the biggest stock in the U.S. But its market cap had already raced ahead of the cumulative value for entire stock markets in Germany, France and the United Kingdom, measured individually and in U.S. dollars. Only India, Japan, China and the U.S. have stock markets bigger than Nvidia alone, according to Deutsche Bank. The rally has also fueled concerns about the concentration of the U.S. stock market in just a few technology names.
Persons: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Deutsche Bank, U.S, Apple Locations: U.S, Germany, France, United Kingdom, India, Japan, China, OpenAI
Zilch initially sourced credit for its installment plans and other loans from Goldman Sachs 's private credit arm. The additional $190 million of credit will become available to Zilch as the firm continues to grow. Once Zilch has reaches the $315 million maximum funding threshold, it expects to generate nearly $10 billion of GMV by 2026. The firm reported revenues of £30 million ($38 million) in the 12 months ended March 2023. Zilch also has an advertising sales network where it provides placements for retailers to promote their wares to consumers.
Persons: Phil Belamant, Zilch, it's, Goldman Sachs, Philip Belamant, we've, Goldman, Belamant Organizations: LONDON, Deutsche Bank, Goldman, CNBC, Apple, Citi
Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading around 4.211% at 6:29 a.m. The 2-year Treasury note yield was down 1 basis point at 4.679%. U.S. Treasury yields fell again on Friday as data released this week pointed to easing inflation. Correction: A previous version misstated the magnitude of a decline in the 10-year Treasury note yield.
Persons: Henry Allen, — Jeff Cox Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Rabobank, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal, US, University of Michigan
Oil prices are up more than 4.5% for the week, the strongest gains since early April, when futures rose on boiling geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Crude oil futures rose for a fifth day Friday, on pace for the best week in more than two months as analysts see a tighter market heading into the third quarter. Deutsche sees the oil supply deficit expanding to nearly 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter, which should support Brent prices rising to the mid-to-upper $80s per barrel range. "It would only take a minor overshoot to bring Brent to around USD 90/bbl at some point during the second half," Hsueh told clients. Citigroup also sees a tighter market in the third quarter, though the market will likely enter a surplus in 2025 on solid production growth and slowing demand, according to the bank.
Persons: Benny Gantz's, Helima Croft, Michael Hsueh, Brent, Hsueh Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, RBC, OPEC, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, bbl, Citigroup Locations: Israel, Lebanon
Jim Cramer's daily rapid fire looks at stocks in the news outside the CNBC Investing Club portfolio. Shares added more than 2%. "I like the stock very much," Jim Cramer said, acknowledging that CEO Michael Hsu has needed to implement needed to cut costs as part of a business reorganization. Nike : Shares added 0.4% after analysts at Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of the athletic footwear and apparel maker with a buy rating. "I would be very careful" with Nike's stock, Cramer said.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Michael Hsu, Cramer, Dave, Joey Chestnut, Takeru Kobayashi Organizations: CNBC, Club, Clark : Bank of America, CNBC Investing Club, Procter, Gamble, Nike, Deutsche Bank, Netflix, Cola, Citigroup
OPEC+ members recently announced plans to bring 2.5 million bpd back to the market from October through September 2025. If the group follows through with its announced plan, the oil market will see a surplus of 2.6 million bpd or more. Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said the OPEC+ production plan will cast a bearish shadow over the next two years . It is "inconceivable that the market could absorb anything close" to 2.5 million bpd, Hsueh said. The International Energy Agency warned Wednesday the world will be awash in oil by 2030, with production capacity outpacing demand projections by eight million bpd.
Persons: Brent, Michael Hsueh, Hsueh, Fatih Birol Organizations: Citi, Brent, Deutsche Bank, United Arab Emirates, TD Securities, International Energy Agency Locations: OPEC, North America, Brazil, Guyana, U.S
The head of OPEC said Thursday the world will need to invest in fossil fuels for decades to come in order to prevent an energy shortage, dismissing predictions that oil demand will peak in the near future. The OPEC chief called for "continued oil industry investment, today, tomorrow, and many decades into the future given the products derived from crude oil are essential for our daily lives." Oil supply capacity will rise to 114 million per day by 2030, 8 million barrels more than global demand, according to the IEA. Deutsche Bank and Citi, however, see OPEC coming under pressure in the coming years. Citi analysts see a substantial oil surplus in 2025 as production keeps growing in North America, Brazil and Guyana, while demand slows due to energy efficiency improvements and electric vehicle adoption.
Persons: Haitham Al Ghais, Al Ghais, Fatih Birol, OPEC's Al Ghais, Helima, Croft, I'm, Robert McNally, McNally, EVs, Michael Hsueh Organizations: OPEC, International Energy Agency, IEA, IEA ., RBC Capital Markets, Rapidan Energy, Deutsche Bank, Citi, Brent Locations: China, India, North America, Europe, Northeast Asia, Asia, U.S, OPEC, Brazil, Guyana
Bank of America reiterates Broadcom as buy Following Broadcom's earnings report, Bank of America said the company has "potential to join the trillionaires club." Morgan Stanley downgrades Corning to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley downgraded Corning mainly on valuation. Bank of America reiterates Dell as buy Bank of America said it sees several positive catalysts ahead for Dell. Morgan Stanley reiterates Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Adobe as overweight Morgan Stanley named several tech stocks that it said are well positioned for AI. " Morgan Stanley reiterates Colgate-Palmolive as a top pick Morgan Stanley said it sees a "pet inflection on the horizon" for Colgate.
Persons: it's, Oppenheimer, Ulta, Jefferies, OpenAI, Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Goodyear, Wolfe, Bill Brown, Morgan Stanley downgrades Corning, TD Cowen, Cowen, KeyBanc, Dell, Clark, Wells, Fortnite, Stephens, Wedbush, Tesla, Elon Musk Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Nike, Bank of America, Broadcom, Citi, Royal, TEAM, Microsoft, OpenAI, Nvidia, Starbucks, Goodyear Tire, Civitas Resources, Netflix, Media Survey, Dell, " Bank of America, underperform Bank of America, Adobe, Colgate, Palmolive, Technology, Barclays, NextEra Energy Partners, NextEra Energy, Boeing, of America Locations: Royal Caribbean, Corning, Texas
General Motors approved yet another stock buyback — adding to our frustration that portfolio name Ford has yet to embark on a repurchase program of its own. GM on Tuesday announced a new $6 billion buyback — weeks before its November $10 billion repurchase authorization is set to be completed. "I'm very upset with Ford," Jim Cramer said during the Morning Meeting for Club members. While encouraged by Ford's successful pivot, we believe a sizeable stock buyback would be a catalyst for Ford shares as it has been for GM. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Ford, Jim Cramer, Mary Barra, GM's buyback, John Lawler, repurchases, . Ford, Ford's, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Danielle DeVries Organizations: Motors, Ford, GM, Club, CNBC, Deutsche Bank, New York Locations: .
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSnap election will drive up volatility over the coming weeks, says Deutsche Bank's UleerMaximilian Uleer, Deutsche Bank's head of European equity and cross-asset strategy, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss how to measure the impacts of recent events in Europe, whether the moves in the French market index are an overreaction, and what the European markets are afraid of.
Persons: Bank's, Bank's Uleer Maximilian Uleer Organizations: Bank's Uleer, Deutsche Locations: Europe
DETROIT – General Motors is trimming its expected sales and production of all-electric vehicles this year, as U.S. adoption of EVs occurs slower than expected. GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said the company now expects production of 200,000 to 250,000 EVs this year, down from a previously announced range of 200,000 to 300,000. Jacobson said GM expects EVs to make up 8% of U.S. sales industrywide this year. GM expects its EVs to be profitable on a production, or contribution-margin basis, once it reaches production of 200,000 units. EV sales totaled 16,425 units, or 2.8% of the automaker's overall sales during the period.
Persons: Paul Jacobson, Jacobson, EVs Organizations: DETROIT, GM, Deutsche Bank Locations: North America
The SPD lost support from the 2019 election, winning just 13.9% of the latest votes. Incremental gains meanwhile turned Germany's opposition, the CDU (Christian democrats), into the strongest party, with 23.7% of support. At a national level, the AfD was last ahead of the SPD and in second place overall, according to a leading general election poll. Earlier this year, one of Krah's employees who was based in the European Parliament was arrested for allegedly spying on the parliament for China. watch nowThe AfD's second-in-line for the European Parliament, Petr Bystron, faced allegations of bribery and money laundering, which were linked to Russia and to spreading pro-Kremlin propaganda.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Koenig Heinrich, Ying Tang, Maximilian Krah, Krah, Petr Bystron, What's, Scholz, Marcel Fratzscher, Scholz's, Emmanuel Macron, Fratzscher, Holger Schmieding Organizations: SPD, Union, Scholz's SPD, Greens, CDU, Nazi regime's SS, Parliament, ZDF, German Institute for Economic Research, CNBC, Deutsche Bank Locations: Duisburg, Germany, France's Rassemblement, China, Russia
Some stocks have forward earnings momentum that investors don't want to overlook, according to Liberum. He noted that companies with this momentum outperformed counterparts by 0.2% over the past month. Earnings momentum can be a good sign for a company as it tends to align with growth in revenue, improving margins or cost reductions, or some combination of these factors. Klement noted that earnings per share momentum has a "very chequered past" in the U.S. market. This also comes as the broader market has traded near all-time highs , forcing traders to look harder for individual stocks that have more room to run.
Persons: Joachim Klement, Klement, Nvidia, what's, Motors, LSEG, Tim Rokossa Organizations: Nvidia, Wall, LSEG, Amazon, Meta, Netflix, General Motors, Deutsche Bank, Motors, Ford Locations: U.S, Europe
Oppenheimer raised its price target on Microsoft to $500 on the potential of increasing AI adoption. Shares of AT & T are up 9% on the year, but analyst Michael Rollins' $20 price target implies that shares could rise another 9%. Analyst Andrew Obin upgraded the Post-it and Scotch parent to buy from neutral and raised his price target by $15 to $120. Analyst Christopher Nardone upgraded the shoe maker to buy from neutral and raised his price target by $16 to $87. Analyst Jay Sole upped his price target on the clothing maker by $14 to $174, now suggesting upside of 43.4%.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Exxon, Neal Dingmann, Dingmann, aren't, — Spencer Kimball, Michael Rollins, Rollins, Lisa Kailai Han, BofA, Andrew Obin, William Brown, Michael Roman, Brown, Obin, — Alex Harring, Christopher Nardone, Nardone, Skechers, Jeffrey Zekauskas, Zekauskas, Huntsman, Benjamin Soff, Soff, Fred Imbert, PVH, Jay Sole, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Sole, Alex Harring, Morgan Stanley, Dara Mohsenian, Mohsenian, Anthony Chukumba, Chukumba, Gavin Parsons, Parsons, Tami Zakaria, Zakaria, Herc, Morgan, Tim Hsiao, Bernstein's Eunice Lee, NIO, America's Ming Hsun Lee, Timothy Horan, Horan, Rob Sanderson, Sanderson Organizations: CNBC, Microsoft, Loop, Exxon, Natural Resources, Citi, AT, VZ, Bank of America, Huntsman, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Colgate, Palmolive, Loop Capital, UBS shaves, Boeing, Rentals, United Rentals, Herc Holdings, Wall, 3Q, Bank, OpenAI Locations: Truist, Guyana, OPEC, Thursday's, America's
Crude oil futures Friday posted a third straight weekly loss on worries that demand may be softening even as OPEC+ plans to increase production. Here are Friday's closing energy prices:The OPEC+ production increase would start when refineries are down for fall maintenance and then ramp up as demand typically weakens heading into winter. Still, oil market analysts have widely described this week's sell-off as an overreaction, noting that the OPEC+ production increase does not start until October. In the meantime, oil balances should tighten as the cuts remain in place during the summer driving season when demand typically rises, according to JPMorgan. JPMorgan and Barclays have said oil demand growth remains relatively healthy.
Organizations: Brent, Poor U.S, JPMorgan, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Gulf of Mexico, OPEC
We reiterate our Buy rating." Deutsche Bank reiterates Adobe as buy Deutsche said it's sticking with its buy rating ahead of earnings next week. Loop reiterates Best Buy as buy Loop said it's sticking with its buy rating on the stock. "We maintain our above consensus Best Buy estimates, reiterate our Buy rating, and are raising our price target to $100 from $93." Morgan Stanley reiterates Walmart as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's standing by its overweight rating on the stock.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Wells, it's, TD Cowen, Wolfe, NVDA, Morgan Stanley, Nio, BTIG, Ally, Mizuho, JPMorgan, JPMorgan downgrades Vail, Lynch Organizations: Oppenheimer, UPS, Amazon Web Services, Nvidia, Norfolk Southern & Union Pacific, Union Pacific, Norfolk, Microsoft, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Colgate, Palmolive, China EV, Oracle, Adobe, JPMorgan, United Rentals, Barclays, Netflix, Vail, Exxon, " Bank of America, of America, underperform Bank of America, Bank of America, 3M, Citi, AT, Unilever
Goldman Sachs reiterates Nvidia as buy Goldman said it's sticking with its buy rating on the stock. JPMorgan upgrades StoneCo to overweight from neutral JPMorgan said in its upgrade of the fintech solutions company that it has "appealing" potential for earnings growth. Morgan Stanley reiterates JPMorgan as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's even more bullish on the stock after a meeting with company management. " JPMorgan reiterates Alphabet as overweight JPMorgan said the company is on the "offensive in Gen AI." JPMorgan reiterates Broadcom as overweight The firm said it's sticking with its overweight rating on shares of Broadcom.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Tesla, Oppenheimer, DA Davidson, Davidson, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Bernstein, FANG, Redburn, it's bullish, osteogenesis, it's, Robinson, JPMorgan, Disney, Evercore, Moffett, Carvana Organizations: Walmart, Apple, company's, Conference, Nvidia, Energy, Midland shaleco, Endeavor Energy Resources, Airlines, United, Citi, eBay, JPMorgan, BMO, UBS, Mizuho, SEE, P Containers, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Google, Jefferies, DFS, Disney, Netflix, CTV, Broadcom Locations: China, Midland, Rocklin
The decision by OPEC+ to increase oil production will cast a "bearish shadow" over oil prices for the next two years, creating a level of uncertainty not seen since the pandemic severely disrupted demand, according to Deutsche Bank. It is "inconceivable that the market could absorb anything close" to 2.2 million bpd, Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh told clients in a note Wednesday. The supply increase is similar in magnitude to the 2.3 million bpd oversupply during the first year of the pandemic in 2020, Hsueh wrote. The policy shift by OPEC+ "marks the end of the tightening cycle that began in October 2022," Hsueh said. The supply deficit of 500,000 bpd this quarter will rise to 1 million bpd in the third quarter before the OPEC+ production increases start, according to Deutsche.
Persons: Michael Hsueh, Hsueh, Goldman Sachs, Brent Organizations: OPEC, Deutsche Bank ., Deutsche Bank, TD Securities, Deutsche, Brent Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Mexico, U.S
Deutsche Bank executive on coming out on Wall Street
  + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDeutsche Bank executive on coming out on Wall StreetFor Pride Month, Deutsche Bank's Matthias Krause says advancement on Wall Street is possible, even after coming out.
Persons: Matthias Krause Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Pride, Deutsche
President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde arrives to address a press conference following the meeting of the governing council of the ECB in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on April 11, 2024. FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank this week is set to cut borrowing costs for the euro area for the first time since September 2019. It will mark the official end to the record fast-hiking cycle that begun after the Covid-19 pandemic as inflation soared higher. But investors' attention looks like it has already moved on to what will happen after this June cut by the Frankfurt institution. "Judging by the commentary from officials, there is no questioning of the wisdom of cutting rates on 6 June," said Mark Wall, ECB watcher with Deutsche Bank.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Mark Wall Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Deutsche Bank, ECB — Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Austin Wang, a class-of-2025 computer-science major at Yale University, said students were "scared that engineering roles will be replaced in the future." Handshake found that fewer prospective business graduates were applying to consulting roles and that more were seeking positions in customer relations, marketing, and analytics compared with last year. Handshake's analysis suggested tech job postings geared toward fresh graduates fell by 30% compared with last year. Advertisement"It's quite bad for entry-level jobs in general but even worse for international students," she said.
Persons: , It's, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Austin Wang, Fabrice Coffrini, Beth Hendler, Matthew Park, Anika Nair, Rutgers University . Austin Wang, Anika Nair Yale's Wang, Wang, Amr Alfiky, you'll, Adnan Hussain, Christine Cruzvergara, Richard Carruthers, I've Organizations: Service, Management, Big Tech, National Association of Colleges, Employers, Business, New York Times, Yale University, McKinsey & Company, Boston Consulting Group, Bain & Company, Accenture, McKinsey, Getty Images Industry, Yale, Tech, Companies, Ivy League, Rutgers University ., Rutgers University, JPMorgan —, Investment, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Finance, Reuters, National University of Singapore, Imperial College London, KPMG, Deloitte, HSBC, Amazon Web Services Locations: Wall, AFP, Singapore
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