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Will Home Prices Drop in 2023?
  + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +5 min
As of January, prices were down 13% from that June high, according to the National Association of Realtors. Will home prices drop in 2023? The University of California San Diego, for example, predicts prices will drop 5% nationally and as much as 18% in some cities. As a result, the U.S. housing market has been short on for-sale listings for more than a decade. “This is the easiest way to find out if you got a good price on your home in comparison to what else is on the market.”Finally, understand your finances.
Home-Price Growth Slowed in 2022
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Nicole Friedman | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Existing-home sales last year fell to the lowest level since 2014. Home-price growth decelerated in 2022 after a rapid rise in mortgage rates priced many buyers out of the market. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the nation, rose 5.8% in the year ended in December, down from a 7.6% annual rate the prior month. The increase was the lowest December-to-December change since 2019.
Dollar edges higher, headed for 1st monthly gain since September
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
"The market has repriced the Fed and it now sees a higher terminal rate and low scope for cuts for the rest of the year. And that's what the dollar strength reflects," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist, at UBS. The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of peers, was 0.29% higher at 104.98, and is set for a February gain of 2.4%, its first monthly increase since September. We think some of the dollar strength is exaggerated. So we are cautiously fading dollar strength," UBS' Serebriakov said.
Washington, DC CNN —US home prices fell for the sixth month in a row in December, as rising mortgage rates pushed prospective buyers out of the housing market, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, released Tuesday. Compared to prices from the year before, US home prices nudged higher in December, but the pace of that growth slowed from prior months. The cities with the strongest price appreciation were all in the Southeast, with Miami, up 15.9% from last year, seeing the strongest prices for the fifth-straight month. In November, prices in San Francisco had fallen on a year-over-year basis and the city’s decline worsened in December, with prices down 4.2% year-over-year. “Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”This story is developing and will be updated.
U.S. house price inflation cools further in December
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, increased 5.8% year-on-year in December. Prices increased 5.8% in 2022, pulling back from 2021's record-setting 18.9% gain. The housing market has been hammered by the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance, with residential investment contracting for seven straight quarters, the longest such stretch since 2009. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to an average of 6.50% last week from 6.32% in the prior week, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. While higher mortgage are hurting demand and cooling house price inflation, the FHFA noted that "these negative pressures were partially offset by historically low inventory."
Housing supply on a national basis will remain tight, Goldman Sachs strategists say. Part of that call — which is less bearish than forecasts from firms like KPMG, Interactive Brokers, and Pantheon Macroeconomics — is due to Goldman's outlook for housing supply levels. In certain areas of the country, supply levels are rising faster than in others. In four cities in particular, supply levels are above pre-pandemic levels, the bank said, which will result in greater price declines than the national average. Goldman SachsSupply developments in the multi-family housing market could also signal trouble for prices down the line, the strategists said.
But the correlation between confidence and consumer spending has been weak. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 102.9 this month from 106.0 in January. Consumer spending increased by the most in nearly two years in January, driven by a surge in wage gains. The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, increased 5.8% year-on-year in December, a second report showed on Tuesday. Price growth remained strong in the South, with double-digit gains in Miami, Tampa and Atlanta.
Higher mortgage rates weighed on home price gains at the end of 2022. While prices were still higher than they were a year earlier, the rate of increase slowed quickly, according to data released Tuesday. Home prices in December were 5.8% higher than the previous December, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. For all of 2022, the 5.8% price gain was the 15th best performance in the index's 35-year history, but was well below 2021's record-setting 18.9% gain. Weekly data on buyer activity indicates that homebuyers may be watching mortgage rates closely.
Inside California's tiny-home takeover
  + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Kelsey Neubauer | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
For the state with the most dire housing shortage, the move could be a game changer — eventually. As the US grapples with a massive housing shortage, one possible solution is playing out in California right now — and the state may have struck gold. Oregon, Maine, and Nebraska, as well as cities like Miami, have enacted laws similar to California's. There's been opposition to ADUs from homeowners worried about the density of their neighborhoods and sometimes the aesthetics of the structures. Ultimately, the housing shortage could be alleviated, she said.
Housing prices around the US will see declines in the high single-digits, says Bill Adams. Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area in California face unique challenges, he said. That downward trend will continue into the fourth quarter this year, Adams said, and peak-to-trough prices declines will end up being in the high single-digits. According to Kiplinger, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Francisco, and Oakland are all in the top 11 most expensive cities in the US. According to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, home prices in Los Angeles are down 7.5% from their peak, and prices in San Francisco are down 14.2%.
According to two separate indices existing home prices rose to the highest level in 6 years. Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe U.S. housing market cooled off pretty dramatically last year, after mortgage rates more than doubled from historic lows. Now, as demand appears to be coming back into the market, due to a slight drop in mortgage rates, prices are pushing back. But mortgage rates began to fall in December, and prices reacted immediately. Lower mortgage rates are driving the new demand.
That's bad news for current real-estate investors, and probably good news for prospective ones. On the other hand, it's potentially good news for prospective real-estate investors who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for better deals. Below is a list of Insider stories to help navigate the current real-estate investing landscape as prices fall. They see US home prices falling another 6% in 2023, putting peak-to-trough declines at around 10%. Justin Sullivan / Getty ImagesOne of the most common financing strategies real-estate investors use to build up a portfolio is the BRRRR method: buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat.
Central to their call is the fact that homes remain vastly unaffordable. Homes remain near their most unaffordable levels since the early 1980s, according to the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index. Home prices fall when supply outpaces demand. "New home sales remain prone to slump suddenly if the upward trend in existing home supply continues," Clancy said. KMPG economists say prices could fall as much as 20% in 2023, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say prices will fall another 6.1% and 4%, respectively.
So will Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampen expectations and reiterate that the fight against inflation still has a way to go, or will the Fed show signs that they’re ready to ease up on rate hikes? Wall Street analysts also expect the Fed will stop hiking altogether by the spring. This will leave the market hanging on the future of how many rate hikes we will see.”He’s preparing for a volatile market reaction. But now, investors may be a bit too eager to end treatment, even as Fed officials warn that doing so would be premature. Stocks close out a jubilant JanuaryThe greatest comebacks of all time: Rocky Balboa, JNCO jeans, Apple and now… the US stock market.
Sadaram used the BRRRR method, which may be becoming less viable in certain markets. The BRRRR method — that's buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat — is a tried and true real-estate investing method that's helped countless investors scale up their portfolios. Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisFalling home prices and rents make for a daunting environment for real-estate investors, especially those looking to scale up using strategies like the BRRRR method. But Sadaram is still convinced the BRRRR method is the best way to build a portfolio, even in today's market. Sadaram's best advice for using the BRRRR method in today's marketThere are, however, some things investors need to keep in mind amid the bearish environment, he said.
US home prices continued to lose momentum in November
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending November 2022 compared to the year ending October 2022. Month-over-month declines continued in November, with all 20 cities reporting declines before seasonal adjustments. After seasonal adjustments, 19 cities still reported declines, with only Detroit increasing 0.1%. Last July marked the first month-over-month decrease for the national index since February 2012 and that continued through November, with seasonally adjusted prices falling 0.3% month over month. “Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken,” he said.
Westend61HELOC use rose as cash-out refis droppedLast year, as mortgage rates climbed higher, accessing home equity by taking cash against it during refinancing — a so-called cash-out refi — became less appealing. That compares with personal loan rates of above 10%, for consumers with high credit scores, and about 20% for credit cards, according to CreditCards.com. I would not use a HELOC to buy frivolous things or things you can't afford. "I would not use a HELOC to buy frivolous things or things you can't afford," said certified financial planner David Demming, president of Demming Financial Services in Aurora, Ohio. Here are three key things to consider before signing on the dotted line.
KPMG economist Yelena Maleyev said home prices could fall 20% in 2023. Maleyev, who focuses on the housing market, told Insider last week that she believes home prices around the US could fall as much as 20%. Underpinning Maleyev's call is the destabilization in the market that has occurred thanks to rising mortgage rates. Mortgage rates have more than doubled in the last year while home prices hit record highs, resulting in a significant drop in demand. And that means an even more activist Fed, that means even more monetary tightening, that means even higher mortgage rates."
In some cities, the damage will be as bad as it was across the US in the mid-2000s, the bank said. Attention homeowners and real-estate investors, Goldman Sachs has bad news: home prices are going to fall further in 2023 than they had previously thought. Goldman SachsWhile Karoui, Viswanathan, and Walker see national home prices falling by 10% peak-to-trough, they see prices in cities where home values have soared above average falling more. What other firms are sayingGoldman Sachs isn't the only Wall Street bank calling for further home price declines in 2023. Morgan Stanley strategist James Egan said in a January note that he sees home prices falling by 4% in 2023 thanks to stagnant demand.
Now, he's preparing to buy up the deals coming in from the housing correction this year. Some of the deals he's snagging are from foreclosures, which have been on an uptick. "People are getting more eager to sell and it's less of a seller's market and more of a buyer's market," Tortoriello said after witnessing the competition and buying frenzy of the last two years. He expects this to cause job losses and hurt other parts of the economy including the housing market. For those who are prepared to take advantage of price plunges in the housing market, numerous opportunities are coming, he said.
Homebuyers are gaining back negotiating power as high mortgage rates slows demand. According to Redfin, sellers are offering concessions to buyers at the highest rate since 2020. High mortgage rates have killed affordability and therefore demand, so home prices are starting to come down. But in addition to falling prices, homebuyers are benefitting from extra deal sweeteners as they look to take advantage of reduced competition, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin. RedfinSellers have had to navigate an environment where mortgage rates have more than doubled in the last year, from around 3% to at times over 7%.
Mortgage rates are still twice what they were a year ago, but home prices have been falling since June, and that's finally making consumers feel better about what had been an overheated, highly competitive housing market. A monthly housing sentiment index from Fannie Mae showed sentiment improving from November to December. The share saying now is a bad time decreased. The share of respondents saying now is a good time to sell dropped to 51% from 54%, while the share saying now is a bad time to sell increased. More consumers now believe home prices will fall in the next 12 months, and more also said they believe mortgage rates will come down.
In October, home prices rose 9.2% year-over-year, S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a December statement. Affordability is dropping at the quickest pace in decades, he said, as mortgage rates remain above 6% and home prices remain historically high. While new home supply has soared, existing-home supply has stayed relatively low, meaning total supply has stayed low. Housing supply is calculated by considering the number of houses available and the pace of home sales per month. Total months of supply remain at just four months, a level that has been historically associated with climbing home prices," Egan said.
Home prices are falling into a deep winter chill, as higher mortgage rates push more buyers to the sidelines. Prices are now 2.5% below the spring 2022 peak and are expected to continue to move lower this year. CoreLogic's forecast has price movement falling into negative territory by spring before rebounding to about 2% to 3% growth in the fall. Mortgage rates are back on the rise again after a brief reprieve in November and early December. Florida, South Carolina and Georgia saw the highest home price gains in the nation, as buyers continue to flock to the Sun Belt.
Here's how Miller, who doesn't think the housing market is going to crash, became a beacon of trust. The call was from a journalist at an international paper asking for Miller's comment on the US housing market for a story. The 62-year-old founder of the real-estate-appraisal and data firm Miller Samuel is probably the most-quoted man in real estate, with some 2,469 news citations, according to the database LexisNexis. Today, Miller Samuel has replaced Scantrons with iPods, iPhones, and a CoreLogic appraisal software called A La Mode. Today, there's much more data than there was when he started Miller Samuel, but also a lot more "crap," Miller said.
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