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Club holding Wells Fargo will post quarterly results on Friday, followed by our other financial holding, Morgan Stanley, on Tuesday. In theory, higher borrowing costs mean Wells Fargo can generate more money from those interest-earning assets, but it's not that simple. It's hard to say with the fluid inflation and rate expectations whether Wells Fargo might change its NII outlook when it reports on Friday. Wells Fargo also has a key long-term growth prospect in the potential removal of its $1.9 trillion Fed-imposed asset cap. A woman walks past Wells Fargo bank in New York City, U.S., March 17, 2020.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, We're, Jim Cramer, Wells, Wells Fargo's, Mike Santomassimo, Santomassimo, Jim said, Jim, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Charlie's, He's, Morgan, there's, Jefferies, Reddit's, James Gorman, Ted Pick, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Club, Silicon Valley Bank, UBS, Investment, JPMorgan, Jefferies, Discover, Wall Street, Amer Sports, Astera Labs, Reddit's, New York Stock Exchange, Street Journal, CNBC Locations: Wells, Silicon, Wells Fargo, Capital, Wilson, Morgan, New York City, U.S
Trump has floated a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 100% tariff on foreign cars – including from Mexico. Trump’s proposals, if enacted, could easily set off a new trade war with China and potentially other nations, too. Some economists are warning Trump’s trade agenda and the ensuing retaliation from trading partners would hurt the US economy by worsening inflation, killing jobs, depressing growth and spooking investors. It’s hard to say exactly because there is a lot of uncertainty over how much of Trump’s proposed agenda would actually be enacted. That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately consumers.
Persons: he’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Alex Durante, Trump’s, , Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden’s, Karoline Leavitt, ” “, ” Leavitt, , Biden, “ Donald Trump, ” Biden, James Singer, Biden’s, That’s, Durante, Joe Brusuelas, don’t, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Liz, Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, Obama, ” Durante Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Tax Foundation, CNN, Trump, China, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, RSM, Target, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, US International Trade Commission, , Obama Locations: New York, China, Mexico, Beijing, United States
Gas and shelter costs contributed more than half of that monthly increase, according to the BLS. Economists were expecting a 0.3% monthly increase and an annual rate of 3.4%, according to FactSet consensus estimates. The Fed has been wanting to see meaningful progress on inflation before it starts cutting rates. Excluding gas and food prices, categories that tend to be more volatile, core inflation rose 0.4% from the month before, bringing the annual rate to 3.8%, the same as February’s reading. Economists had anticipated a 0.3% monthly gain and for the annual rate to inch lower to 3.7%, according to FactSet.
Persons: ” Greg McBride, Bankrate, Economists Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS
Live Updates: Inflation Expected to Remain Stubborn
  + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
Policymakers have made it clear that they want to see further evidence that inflation is cooling before they cut interest rates. But Fed officials do not want to cut rates before they are confident that inflation is on track to return to normal. That threat of lingering inflation has become a more serious concern for policymakers since the start of the year. Inflation has flatlined in recent months after months of steady declines, raising some alarm at the Fed and among forecasters. Going into the year, investors expected the Fed to cut rates sharply in 2024 — to about 4 percent — but have dialed back those expectations.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Laura Rosner, Warburton, it’s, you’ve, Organizations: Federal, Fed, Goldman, Deutsche Bank Locations: Central
Investors were betting big on Federal Reserve rate cuts at the start of 2024, wagering that central bankers would lower interest rates to around 4 percent by the end of the year. But after months of stubborn inflation and strong economic growth, the outlook is starting to look much less dramatic. Market pricing now suggests that rates will end the year in the neighborhood of 4.75 percent. That would mean Fed officials had cut rates two or three times from their current 5.3 percent. Central bankers do not want to risk tanking the job market and causing a recession by keeping interest rates too high for too long.
Organizations: Federal
How India is challenging China as Asia's tech powerhouse
  + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Arjun Kharpal | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +30 min
New Delhi has sought to woo foreign tech companies and has been increasingly successful, with giants like Apple increasing their presence in the country. Tom Chitty: For years China has been Asia's tech powerhouse where the world's electronics and some of the biggest companies on the planet are located. And I think India is in the very early stages, to put it quite bluntly, of trying to do that. Tom Chitty: India have got an election this year as well, which is going to be interesting to see what happens there. You know, India has aligned itself slightly more to the countries that are currently a bit more anti-China, shall we say?
Persons: Tom Chitty, Arjun Kharpal, It's, Let's, I'm, Arjun, You'll, We're, we've, what's, gunning, Narendra Modi, it's, Tom, Modi, Trump, Apple, COVID, there's, Taiwan's, that's, Karen Tso, China's, Tim Cook, Raghuram Rajan, We've, feasibly, India's, let's, he's, you've, we'll, I've, We'll Organizations: Apple, CNBC, China, India's, Foxconn, Micron, Tata Electronics, Taiwan's Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, Reserve Bank of India, CCP, Samsung, Bain, India, London Locations: China, Tencent, Asia, India, Delhi, Washington, Beijing, American, COVID, U.S, Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea, Bangalore, Goa, Kolkata, Mumbai, Europe, Silicon, New York, Germany
Oil spike ripples through global marketsThe price of Brent crude rose again on Friday, at one point topping $91 a barrel. Growing tensions in the Middle East have pushed the global benchmark to levels last reached in October. Some analysts believe the oil rally is just beginning, creating a fresh inflation risk for central bankers who are struggling to keep price-increases in check. JPMorgan Chase forecast last week that oil would climb above $100 by September. And, in a bad sign for motorists, gasoline prices in the U.S. have climbed 6 percent in the past month just ahead of the North American summer driving season.
Persons: Brent, Biden Organizations: JPMorgan Chase Locations: U.S
Good news is good news: The stock market correctly viewed the good jobs data as good news — no matter what it means for the timing of the first interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Those concerns were the catalyst that caused oil to spike late Thursday and the stock market to spiral. Costco and TJX should be holding up better because they both are market share gainers that offer great value to their customers. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Powell, he's, Ford, Morgan Stanley, Adam Jonas, Jonas, Eaton, Wynn, Estee Lauder, It's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Fed, Ford, U.S, General Motors, Wynn Resorts, Meta, Thursday's, Amazon, Palo Alto Networks, TJX Companies, Retail, Costco, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Eaton, Macao, Mizuho, Palo
Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, reiterated on Wednesday that the central bank can take its time before cutting interest rates as inflation fades and economic growth holds up. This year is a big one for the Fed: After long months of rapid inflation, price increases are finally coming down. That means that central bankers may soon be able to lower interest rates from their highest levels in two decades. The Fed raised rates to 5.3 percent from March 2022 to mid-2023 to cool the economy and bring inflation to heel. Figuring out when and how much to cut interest rates is tricky, though.
Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Stanford, Fed
If the Federal Reserve follows through on plans to lower interest rates it could lead to a stock market bubble, in the view of Neuberger Berman portfolio manager Steve Eisman. The central bank last month penciled in three potential quarter percentage point rate cuts by the end of 2023, along with multiple other cuts coming in future years. I personally think there should be no Fed cuts this year," he said during an interview on CNBC's " Squawk Box ." My actual fear is that if the Fed were actually to cut rates, the market becomes bubblicious and then we have a real problem. Markets in fact have grown nervous this week as hopes have waned for rate cuts.
Persons: Neuberger Berman, Steve Eisman, Jerome Powell, Eisman, Powell Organizations: Federal, Institute for Supply Management, Stanford Business, Government, Society, Labor Department, Fed
Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina has played a key role in stabilizing Russia's sanctions-hit economy. It's also aimed at the woman behind him: Elvira Nabiullina, the country's central bank governor, who plays a chief role in keeping Russia's wartime economy ticking. At the time, she was the first woman to lead a Group of Eight, or G8, central bank. In 2015, Euromoney, a finance trade publication, named Nabiullina Central Bank Governor of the Year. In December, she issued a warning that Russia's economy was at risk of overheating.
Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, , Putin, It's, Nabiullina, Daniel McDowell, McDowell, wined, Christine Lagarde, Nabiullina —, Richard Portes, Portes —, Portes, Anders Åslund, Åslund, Leo Tolstoy, Fyodor Dostoevsky, Franz Kafka, Yaroslav Kuzminov, Kuzminov, Nabiullina's, Alan Harvey, Herman Gref —, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Maxim Shemetov, Michel Camdessus, she's, isn't, Sergei Aleksashenko, Alexei Makarkin, Vladimir Pesnya, Nabiulina, let's Organizations: Ukraine, Service, Russian, KGB, Syracuse University, Kremlin, International Monetary Fund, US, London Business School, Moscow Times, Bloomberg, Higher School of Economics, , Moscow State University, SNS, USSR, Industrial Union Board, Gref, Central Bank Governor, Nabiullina Central Bank Governor, Banker, Central Banker, IMF, Monetary Fund, Financial Times, Government, Political Technologies, Wall Street Journal, RBC, Politico Europe Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia, Brussels, Nabiullina, Swedish, Moscow, Ufa, Central Russia, Tatars, Crimea, Euromoney, Europe, steadying
Bruch is one of the largest individual FTX creditors and has been tapped by the US Department of Justice to serve as one of nine on the FTX Creditors’ Committee, where he is working to recoup the funds lost by customers. DOJ-appointed creditor committees ordinarily consist of people and companies who hold the seven largest unsecured claims against the debtor (in this case, FTX), according to the agency. Before the Bell spoke with Bruch about Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX, MyPrize and the future of crypto. I feel for all of the creditors and am doing everything I can to help recoup what was taken from us. I’ve worked at some of the largest crypto trading desks in the world and then also started trading my own book of capital and grew to become one of the largest individual crypto traders.
Persons: Sam Bankman, Fried, Zach Bruch, Bruch, MyPrize, Bell, Sam Bankman Fried, , , Sam Bankman Fried’s, Bitcoin, I’ve, Elisabeth Buchwald, Jerome Powell wasn’t, ” Powell, Powell, Christopher Waller, Evan Gershkovich, Evan Gershkovich’s, Radina Gigova, Anna Chernova, Antonina Favorskaya, Alexey Navalny, Favorskaya, Gershkovich Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, US Department of Justice, , DOJ, Arrington Capital, Department of Justice, Federal, Commerce Department, San Francisco Fed, ” Fed, CNN, Wall Street Locations: New York, Russia, Yekaterinburg
Griffin noted that 2023 was a difficult year for the hedge fund industry and expected the medium-term to "remain challenging." Citadel and Griffin's market maker, Citadel Securities, received over 100,000 applications for full-time jobs and internships this year, Griffin said. "We take pride in having built one of the most formidable teams in hedge fund history," he said. The remarkable achievements of our portfolio managers are a testament to the constructive and empowering culture at Citadel. Assembling the Premier Team in Hedge Fund HistoryWe take pride in having built one of the most formidable teams in hedge fund history.
Persons: Griffin, Kenneth C Organizations: Business, Disney World, Citadel, Citadel Securities, Citadel Wellington LLC, Team, Congressional, U.S, LCH Investments Locations: United States
Russia's economic strength is likely to wane this year, economists say. Putin's economic fantasyThe tailspin Sonnenfeld, Tian, and Guriev are predicting seems contradictory to what Russia is presenting on the surface. Russian inflation is also high, clocking in at 7.58%, according to data from Russia's economic ministry. Guriev doesn't believe Russia's economy will completely unravel, as central bankers will work hard to limit the damage. Advertisement"It's unlikely the Russian economy will spiral into a macroeconomic meltdown, and that the Russian political system will," he said.
Persons: Putin, Joe Biden, , Vladimir Putin, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Tian, Trump's, Sergei Guriev, Sonnenfeld, he's, Guriev, Putin's Organizations: Service, Yale, London Business School, Russia Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Moscow, Soviet
Some economists interpreted that as a sign that the Fed is now more tolerant of higher inflation. Powell pushed back on the perception that the central bank has grown more comfortable with inflation being higher for longer than expected in his post-meeting news conference. and my sense coming out of this month’s meeting was that Fed Chair Powell wants to get this easing cycle going sooner rather than later. What’s allowing the Fed to be patient or more tolerant of higher inflation? They’re willing to essentially look through some of the bumpiness in the inflation data at the beginning of the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, That’s, Powell, , ” Powell, “ We’re, Mohamed El, Erian, , Bell, Lydia Boussour, they’re, What’s, we’ve, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Read, Levi Strauss, Tupperware Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Fed, Home Depot, Home, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Maine Foods, Dave, Buster’s Entertainment, US Labor Department, US Commerce Department, Stanford University Locations: EY, Cal
Yen hits 34-yr low ahead of key U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Japanese yen banknotes of various denominations are arranged in Kawasaki, Japan, on Friday, June 23, 2023. The yen briefly traded at 151.97 per dollar in the Asia session, down about 0.2% and its weakest since mid-1990. China's yuan and the New Zealand dollar traded near four-month lows. The yuan weakened to 7.2285 per dollar despite a strong fix of its trading band. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.2% to $0.5988, not helped by a downward revision to the government's economic growth forecasts.
Persons: Rodrigo Catril, Naoki Tamura Organizations: National Australia Bank, Bank of Japan, New Zealand Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, Asia
The Fed could cut rates five times in 2025, according to S&P Global Ratings' global chief economist. A slowing US economy will give the Fed the green light to cut, the firm predicted. That implies the Fed will lower rates by 2 full percentage points as inflation continues to cool. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe Fed could cut rates as many as five times next year, as the US economy can't keep its hot pace of growth forever, according to Paul Gruenwald, S&P Global Ratings' global chief economist.
Persons: , Paul Gruenwald, Gruenwald Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Business
The Fed could be making inflation even hotter with its promises of rate cuts. That's according to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who says the central bank is "goosing" the economy. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve could be mucking up the economy with its promises that it will cut interest rates later this year, according to former central banker Kevin Warsh. Related stories"The Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve … are goosing this economy," Warsh said. "A Fed promising to cut rates even as asset prices are melting up."
Persons: Kevin Warsh, , Warsh Organizations: Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury Department, Federal
That’s because some Federal Reserve officials are reconsidering forecasts they made three months ago that called for three rate cuts this year. The stakes are high because there are consequences if the Fed cuts rates soon or if it leaves rates where they’ve been for the past eight months. First rate cut hinges on inflation dataIn February, Bostic told CNN that the first rate cut could come “sometime in the summertime.” That’s also Wall Street’s current expectation. He hasn’t specified — and is unlikely to signal — the number of rate cuts he believes are appropriate for this year. He has cheered inflation’s descent and said further improvement could open the door to rate cuts — if that actually bears out.
Persons: they’ve, Raphael Bostic, ” Bostic, Bostic, That’s, Powell hasn’t, Price, Nam, ” David Page, Powell, Rather, Jerome Powell, Chip Somodevilla, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, , we’ve, we’re, Goolsbee, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Index, AXA, Federal, , Harvard University, Chicago, Yahoo Finance, Fed, San Francisco Fed Locations: New York
Read previewRussia's economy is set to weaken this year, according to researchers from Finland's central bank. Russia won't be able to maintain the surprisingly strong growth it saw, the Bank of Finland's Institute for Emerging Economies said in a recent report. That's a stark contrast from what Russia saw last year, with its economy growing 3.6%, according to Russia's federal statistics service. Russia's long-term potential growth rate, in particular, has been reduced by the shift to a wartime economy," the report said. AdvertisementThe report pointed to three areas of the Russian economy that could take a hit.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Bank of Finland's Institute, Emerging Economies, Business, Russia, Ukraine, United Nations, Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics Locations: Russia, Russian, Ukraine, Moscow
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 20, 2024 in New York City. Stock futures were slightly lower Sunday evening ahead of March's last—and shortened—trading week. S&P futures and Nasdaq 100 futures lost nearly 0.1%. Overall investor sentiment remains above its historical average, according to the latest weekly American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey, reflecting persistent market optimism. This week, investors will gain further insight about the path of inflation from the February personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, released Friday morning.
Persons: Ryan Grabinksi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal, American Association of, Strategas Securities Locations: New York City, March's, U.S
In that case, the Fed may have to push cuts out until the end of the year, confounding market expectations. If so, then the nonpolitical monetary policy committee might postpone considering rate cuts until after the November presidential elections," Yardeni wrote last week. "That could be the first rate cut decision of this year," Yardeni said. "We maintain our expectation of just two rate cuts this year , in July and December," economists at Nomura said in a client note. Clarida also noted that if the Fed judged inflation by the consumer price index instead of its preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, "we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts."
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nomura, Richard Clarida, Clarida Organizations: Yardeni Research, Fed, Market, CNBC
Slowing America’s rapid inflation has been an unexpectedly painless process so far. That flatline is stoking questions about whether the final phase in fighting inflation could prove more difficult for the Federal Reserve. Fed officials will have a chance to respond to the latest data on Wednesday, when they conclude a two-day policy meeting. The Fed’s most recent economic estimates, released in December, suggested that Fed officials would make three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2024. Some economists think it’s possible that officials could dial back their rate cut expectations, projecting just two moves this year.
Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed
The price of bond funds like TLT move in the opposite direction of bond yields, meaning lower prices equal higher yields. TLT 1M mountain The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF has fallen for eight straight trading sessions. Only two of the trading sessions have seen a decline of more than 0.5%. One of the TLT's main competitors, the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) , also fell for eight-straight trading sessions. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) has only fallen in five of the past eight sessions, for example.
Persons: Jason Goepfert Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, Federal, White Oak Consultancy
Technology led the stock market higher on Monday as investors await Nvidia's big AI event. Nvidia is set to unveil its new GPU products like the B100 at its annual conference. The Fed will kick off its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, with markets expecting rates to be unchanged. AdvertisementUS stocks jumped on Monday, led by the technology sector, as investors await Nvidia's big AI conference. AdvertisementFollowing the AI-fueled excitement, investors will be turning their attention to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting set to begin on Tuesday.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Huang, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Technology, Nvidia, Federal, Here's
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