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"Real" earnings measure the net growth in workers' wages after inflation. The trend of growth in annual real earnings has persisted since May 2023, according to BLS data. That marks a reversal from April 2021 to April 2023, when inflation spiked and eclipsed growth in the average worker's paycheck. That month, the average worker saw their pay growth spike to about 6% annually. "This is good news for consumers," since it generally equates to an increase in their well-being over time, he added.
Persons: It's, Chris Tilly, Maximiliano Dvorkin, Louis, Dvorkin Organizations: Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Finance, University of California, Federal Reserve Bank of St, BLS Locations: U.S, Los Angeles
Wall Street is turning more bullish
  + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —It’s tough being a Wall Street bear these days. The S&P 500 index has climbed nearly 15% this year and clinched 30 record-high closes. The new backdrop of cooling inflation coupled with rate cuts on the horizon is prompting investors to up their bullish wagers. Evercore ISI raised its price target to 6,000 for the S&P 500, a reversal from its previous, more gloomy 4,750 target. Much of the S&P 500 index’s returns are tied to the mega-cap tech Magnificent Seven stocks, leaving the market dependent on just a handful of names to continue its monster run.
Persons: New York CNN —, Goldman Sachs, , Julian Emanuel, index’s, Bacon, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, fuming, Jin Bian, Samantha Delouya, Bian, , Ron DeSantis, isn’t, Bill 264, Sellers, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, ISI, Evercore ISI, Shoppers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN Locations: New York, Monday’s, Florida, Tampa , Florida, Nanjing, China
This is good news for mortgage rates, but we'll need to see more data showing that inflation is sustainably coming down before rates can fall further. As inflation slows and the Fed is able to start lowering the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to go down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, putting upward pressure on prices.
Persons: Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
Dacus and her husband have to stick to a tight budget: their household only receives $23 a month from SNAP. But some struggling families, like Dacus', don't receive enough help, or their income is considered too high to receive any help at all. But $23 a month in food benefits isn't even close to affording what they need to eat. SNAP benefits don't always align with household needsAmerica's SNAP program provides low-income households with money to grocery shop, and the qualifying criteria is based on the federal poverty line. Yet, many households like Dacus' don't receive the maximum because their income isn't low enough.
Persons: , Mary Dacus, graham, Stephen, creamer, Dacus, ALICEs, It's Organizations: Service, Foods, Business, Chicago —, Walmart, SNAP, of Labor, Pew Research Center, US Department of Agriculture, Women Locations: Robinson , Illinois, Chicago
New York CNN —Shoppers in the meat aisle may have noticed something weird last month: Bacon prices are sizzling, but ham’s not so hot. But ham prices were lower, falling 5.4% overall and dropping 6.3% when you exclude canned varieties. It’s all relativeGlynn Tonsor, a professor in the department of agriculture economics at Kansas State University suggests that if you zoom out, pork prices are indeed going up across the board. But prices for ham actually went up higher than the prices of bacon and pork chops. Scott Olson/Getty Images/FilePeople love baconAnother reason for high bacon prices: Strong demand, even when it’s expensive.
Persons: Bacon, Glynn Tonsor, ” Tonsor, Scott Olson, , Christine McCracken, They’re, you’ll, It’s, McCracken, “ You’ll Organizations: New, New York CNN, Shoppers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Kansas State University, Federal Reserve, St, RaboBank, Retailers, KFC, Starbucks Locations: New York, Louis, Mexico, , Chicago , Illinois, Burger King
Comparing today's job market to previous years when the Fed cut rates also shows some cause for concern. AdvertisementIf the job market continues to weaken, that makes a greater case for the Fed to cut rates, the bank said. Related storiesHere are three areas of labor market weakness that could mean more downside for interest rates:1. Employment is also falling among workers aged 16-24, the "most volatile" cohort of the job market, strategists added. Just 10%-15% of new labor market entrants are finding a job, according to Goldman's analysis of labor market data.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Labor, Fed, Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, of Labor Statistics, Goldman, Industries, Labor Department Locations: ManpowerGroup
Kevin Lamarque | ReutersImmigration — both authorized and unauthorized — has helped the U.S. job market sustain a fiery run in recent months without reigniting inflation, economists and analysts say. This dynamic — a heating job market and cooling inflation — is in part the result of increased inflows of immigrants. Typically, a hot labor market walks a tightrope that could easily collapse into reheated inflation. But the Brookings researchers recalculated the government's estimates — this time, factoring the impact of immigrants on the labor pool. They found that with immigration, the 2024 U.S. job market could safely absorb between 160,000 and 200,000 monthly job gains.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin Lamarque, Reuters Immigration —, , Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs, Michael M, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Zandi, Mandel Ngan, Biden, Donald Trump, Brendan McDermid Organizations: U.S . Border Patrol, Reuters Immigration, of Labor Statistics, FedEx, Broadway, Santiago, Getty, CNBC, Brookings Institution, Brookings, U.S, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, Afp, White, Republican Locations: U.S, Mexico, Brownsville , Texas, New York City, United, Lanham , Maryland, United States, Las Vegas , Nevada
Courtesy Abby ChowningThe tariffs Biden left in place – which are paid by US importers and not China – hit roughly $300 billion of goods. After Trump’s tariffs hit, some US companies sought new manufacturers in other countries. The Covid-19 pandemic upended the global economy roughly two years after Trump’s trade war began. Several studies show that Trump’s tariffs only marginally contributed to the rise in US inflation experienced after the pandemic and the following supply chain crisis. Trump’s tariffs were meant to get China to address those issues.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Tiffany Zarfas Williams, , Zarfas Williams, Joe Biden, , “ Trump, ” Biden, , Biden, , Abby, China –, Rick Muskat, Jake Muskat, Alena Margolis, Muskat, ” Muskat, Phil Page, Page, Bryan Finch, ” Page, Morgan, Nate Herman, Matt Priest, Priest, Steve Madden, ” Jared Bernstein, we’ve, ” Bernstein, Justin Sullivan, ” Herman, Xi Jinping, Biden “ Organizations: Washington CNN —, China, Trump, Biden, Deer Stags, JCPenney, America, Cap America, American Apparel & Footwear Association, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Footwear Distributors, Retailers of America, Adidas, Columbia, Nike, White House Council, Economic Advisers, China Business, Trade, National Council of Textile Organizations, Port Locations: Lubbock, Texas, China, Ukraine, Missouri, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Port of Oakland, Oakland , California
When consumer sentiment falters or the economy starts to teeter, RV sales follow suit, said Michael Hicks, an economics professor at Ball State University and director of Indiana University’s Center for Business and Economic Research. “People don’t make these large, luxury purchases unless they’re actually feeling better about the economy,” said Hicks, who follows the RV industry closely. “It’s so sensitive to interest rate changes, which often precede a downturn.”A Winnebago travel trailer at Motor Sportsland RV dealership in Salt Lake City on April 6, 2020. Nika Shneyder and her father and business partner, Alex Shneyder, standing by a Chill RV in Malibu RV Park, California, in 2019. They moved down to a historically strong, but noticeably smaller, 493,000 the next year, according to data from the RV Industry Association.
Persons: That’s, Nika Shneyder, “ We’re, ” Shneyder, , Michael Hicks, , Hicks, George Frey, bode, ” Michael J, Happe, hasn’t, We’ve, we’ve, Covid, Alex Shneyder, Nika, they’d, Monika Geraci, David Titus, Ty Wright, there’s, Ball State’s Hicks, ’ Titus, they’re, we’ll, Titus, ” Titus Organizations: CNN, Ball State University, Indiana University’s Center for Business, Economic Research, Bloomberg, Getty, Winnebago Industries, RV Industry, Dealers, RVs, Consumers, HL Enterprise, Manufacturing, of Labor Statistics Locations: Los Angeles, teeter, Salt Lake City, YOLO, Malibu, , California, Elkhart , Indiana, The Northern Indiana, South Bend, Elkhart, , Elkhart .
Nationwide, the average yearly cost of care rose to $11,582 per child last year, according to Child Care Aware of America’s latest annual report. The basic costs of employing enough staff to comply with legal and safety requirements in child care centers are already high. The typical hourly wage for a child care worker in Wisconsin is $13.78, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Facing a “child care cliff”The historic $24 billion federal investment helped more than 225,000 providers nationwide — or more than 8 in 10 licensed child care centers — and affected as many as 10 million children. My First Adventure Child Care and Preschool serves 60 families but will close this summer.
Persons: Susan Elandt, ” Elandt, I’m, “ It’s, , Elandt, what’s, , Lydia Higgins, Higgins, ” Higgins, she’s Organizations: CNN, Nationwide, of Columbia, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Century Foundation Locations: Waupaca , Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Waupaca
Many forms of help are tied to the federal poverty line, which is calculated using a formula that has largely not been updated since the 1960s. The poverty line is calculated in an outdated wayThe current federal poverty line for the 48 contiguous states and Washington, DC, is $15,060 a year for one person, $20,440 for a family of two, and $31,200 for a family of four. Courtesy of Melissa HeddenMuch of the resistance to changing the federal poverty line could stem from the government's desire not to inflate the number of people in poverty overnight. AdvertisementRep. Kevin Mullin, a Democrat from California, has introduced legislation — called the Poverty Line Act— that would modernize the federal poverty line, taking into account actual costs of goods and how prices differ across regions. Do you make above the poverty line but not enough to meet your daily needs?
Persons: , Jason Hopkins, Hopkins, he's, He's, doesn't, ALICE —, Nyx, Beth Jarosz, Kyle Ross, ALICE, Mollie Orshansky, Jarosz, Stephanie Hoopes, United For ALICE, they've, Melinda Binkley, Ryan Arbuckle, Louis, Oleg Parubin, Parubin, Melissa Hedden, Melissa, Ross, Biden, Kevin Mullin, Mullin, Michael Tubbs, Tubbs Organizations: Service, Business, America, Center for American Progress, Bureau of Labor Statistics, of Health, Human Services, Assistance, Women, Children, United For, SNAP, Bills, Senate Locations: Illinois, Washington, DC, Stillwater , Minnesota, St, Manhattan, Airbnbs, North Carolina, California, Stockon , California, Illinois —
Gas prices today are not cheap – but they are miles away from that point. Of course, gas prices were cheaper during the Covid-19 pandemic because demand was severely low. In part because they are so visible, gas prices play a key psychological role in how people feel about the economy. “But there is more work to be done — the President remains committed to lowering prices at the pump for Americans and maintaining a stable and secure energy supply.”Real gas prices are cheaper than in 2018Many people may wish for the $2 gas prices of last decade. “Inventories are likely headed back to normal levels, which will keep gasoline prices lower throughout the summer driving season.
Persons: New York CNN —, , Patrick De Haan, it’s, “ We’ve, De Haan, Joe Biden’s, Mark Zandi, Angelo Fernández Hernández, That’s, , Rob Thummel, ” Thummel Organizations: New, New York CNN, AAA, Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, White, Moody’s Analytics, , CNN, Covid, US Energy Information Administration, White House Locations: New York, California, Utah, Washington, Idaho, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, United States, OPEC, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza
Economists polled by FactSet had anticipated a 0.1% rise in monthly wholesale inflation. Excluding food and energy prices, so-called “core” producer inflation rose 2.3% on an annual basis, the same level seen in April. PPI captures average price shifts before they reach consumers and serves as a potential bellwether for retail-level inflation in the months ahead. The new inflation data follows May’s Consumer Price Index released Wednesday, which showed that the pace of price increase consumers see across goods and services cooled to 3.3% from 3.4% in April. But others expressed concerns that the fall in producer prices may actually represent a negative consequence.
Persons: FactSet, Price, Jerome Powell, he’d, ” Clark Bellin, , Christopher Rupkey, ” Rupkey Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Fed, FwdBonds Locations: New York
Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell 0.2% in May
  + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A measure of wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May, adding another piece of evidence that inflation is pulling back. The producer price index, a gauge of prices that producers get for their goods and services in the open market, declined 0.2% for the month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the PPI was unchanged, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase. From the wholesale perspective, the PPI was held back by a 0.8% decrease in final demand goods prices, which was the largest decline since October 2023. On the services side, fuels and lubricants retailing margins surged 12.2%, but that was offset in part by a 4.3% plunge in airline passenger services prices.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Stock, BLS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department
US stocks ended mostly higher on Thursday as investors were encouraged by new inflation data. Data showed wholesale inflation rose less than expected in May, a day after CPI showed consumer inflation also slowed. Tesla shares jumped ahead of the results of Elon Musk's pay package vote, while Broadcom soared after earnings. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Meanwhile, Broadcom stock rocketed higher on upbeat earnings and the announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split.
Persons: , Bill Adams, Elon Musk Organizations: Elon, Broadcom, Service, Federal Reserve, Traders, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Comerica Bank, BlackRock, Vanguard, Bank of America, Nvidia, Here's
3 risks to global economic growth
  + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
The World Bank on Tuesday raised its 2024 outlook for global economic growth to hold steady at 2.6%, an increase from its previous projection of 2.4% growth. “Four years after the upheavals caused by the pandemic, conflicts, inflation, and monetary tightening, it appears that global economic growth is steadying,” Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, said in a release accompanying the report. Prospects for the world’s poorest economies are even more worrisome.”Here are three risks the World Bank sees. The World Bank said that spillover risk from the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas war could curb global growth by pushing up oil prices and shipping costs. Trade tensions are already brewing between some of the world’s biggest global economic engines.
Persons: ” Indermit Gill, Jerome Powell, , Ayhan Kose, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, Joe Erlinger, aren’t, TikTok, John S, James L, Donald Trump, Joe Biden’s, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank, World Bank, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, European Commission, EU, Bureau of Labor Statistics, McDonald’s, Pew Research Center, Knight Foundation, TikTok Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, India, Mexico, United States, France, United Kingdom, China, Beijing
There are currently some "micro pockets" of deflation in the U.S. economy, said Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Why prices are deflating for goodsConsumers have largely seen prices deflate for physical goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, economists said. For example, households have seen prices for furniture and bedding fall by 3.7% since May 2023, according to the consumer price index. watch nowThe U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Travelers have also seen deflation for airline fares (-5.9%), hotels (-1.7%) and car rentals (-8.8%) since May 2023.
Persons: Joe Seydl, Seydl, Michael Pugliese, they've, Hayley Berg, Hopper, Olivia Cross Organizations: Getty, Morgan Private Bank, Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Finance, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, U.S, Canadian, Capital Economics Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
The labor market is cooling, but this slowdown doesn't equate to an easier hunt for job seekers. There were about 1.2 job openings per unemployed worker in April, down from a ratio of two openings per person about two years ago. People might feel burned out or frustrated searching for a new job due to lingering expectations from the red-hot job markets of 2021 and 2022. But there are signs that the U.S. job market is strong despite economic headwinds like higher interest rates, Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist, tells CNBC Make It. Job openings continue to trend toward pre-pandemic levels and the national unemployment rate is under 4%, a historically low mark.
Persons: Nela Richardson, Richardson Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, LinkedIn, CNBC Locations: U.S
Meanwhile, the gas index rose 2.2% from May 2023 to this past May, higher than the 1.2% year-over-year increase in April. The food index rose 2.1% for the 12 months ending May after it was consistently seeing year-over-year increases of 2.2%. More specifically, the food at home index rose 1.0% for the 12 months ending May after a 1.1% increase. Meanwhile, the food away from home index rose 0.4% in May from the preceding month and 4.0% year over year in May. Inflation measures like the CPI suggest US inflation is still too high although these rates look a lot better than back in 2022.
Persons: , it's, Elizabeth Renter, David Kelly Organizations: Service, Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, CPI, BLS, Housing, Morgan Asset Management
"Prices are still too high, but today's report shows welcome progress on lowering inflation," Biden said in a statement. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics report also showed that the annual inflation rate fell to 3.3% in May, down from 3.4% in April and 3.5% in March. The numbers also came in cooler than economists had expected, with those surveyed by Dow Jones having predicted a 0.1% increase in prices and a 3.4% annual rate of inflation. "Wages are rising faster than prices, and unemployment has remained at or below 4% for the longest stretch in 50 years," said Biden. "I know many families are feeling squeezed by the cost of living, which is still too high," he added.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Dow Jones Organizations: Wednesday, of Labor Statistics
Falling gas prices kept inflation in check following a 0.3% gain in April. “Adding to the good inflation news, core services inflation (excludes energy services) printed its mildest monthly increase since September 2021,” Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s chief economist, wrote in a note issued Wednesday. On an annual basis, shelter inflation slowed a tenth of a percentage point to 5.4%, which is its lowest rate since April 2022. Still, those costs continue to run hot for consumers, with transportation services prices up 10.5% from a year ago and car insurance up 20.3%. Soft CPI boosts chances for Fed cutsThe CPI, which tracks average change in prices for a basket of goods and services common to consumers, is the most widely cited inflation metric.
Persons: ” Philip T, Powell, They’re, ” Kathy Bostjancic, Indiana University’s Powell, it’s, ” Sean Snaith, ” Preston Caldwell, Tool, , ” Scott Anderson Organizations: CNN, Inflation, Federal, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Federal Reserve, CPI, Transportation, University of Central, Soft, Fed, Morningstar, BMO Bank Locations: , Indiana, University of Central Florida
The inflation rate the government arrives at also impacts how much you receive in Social Security benefits and likely is a factor in determining your pay. The government also has a much longer history of producing inflation reports with extremely thorough standards. Like PCE and CPI, Truflation assigns relative importance values to categories to mirror how an average consumer’s income is allocated. That’s why small increases in the cost of housing can end up having big impacts on the overall inflation rate. How Truflation data is being usedWall Street traders were the first group drawn to Truflation, Rust said.
Persons: Truflation, Hilton, Stefan Rust, Rust, , ” Danielle DiMartino Booth, Richard Fisher, Booth Organizations: New, New York CNN, Index, Federal, Social Security, PCE, CPI, Amazon, Walmart, Nielsen, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, CNN, Dallas Fed, QI Research Locations: New York, Zillow
The consumer price index showed no increase in May as inflation slightly loosened its stubborn grip on the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The monthly rate rose 0.3% in April while the annual rate was 3.3%. Though the top-line inflation numbers were lower for both the all-items and core measures, shelter inflation increased 0.4% on the month and was up 5.4% from a year ago. Housing-related numbers have been a sticking point in the Federal Reserve's inflation battle and make up a heavy share of the CPI weighting. Though the Fed doesn't use the CPI as its main inflation indicator, it still figures into the calculus.
Persons: Dow Jones, Price, Robert Frick, Joseph LaVorgna, FOMC Organizations: department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Treasury, Dow Jones, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve, CPI, Nikko Securities, Commerce Locations: U.S
But menu prices, a source of frustration for budget-conscious consumers, are still going up — even as restaurants brag about their discounted meals. In that time prices ticked up 0.2% at limited service spots, which include fast casual and fast food joints. Grocery prices rose 1% in the 12 months through May. The increases, particularly in fast food prices, have caused customers to pull back on spending and complain online, eroding the sector’s reputation for affordability. In February, overall food prices remained flat for the first time since April 2023.
Persons: Joe Erlinger, Justin Sullivan, Rice, Milk Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, McDonald’s, KFC, Starbucks Locations: New York, Burger King, Ukraine, Texas
Investors cheered a soft May inflation report, which could pave the way for Fed easing this year. Rate cuts in September are "overwhelmingly likely," one economist said. AdvertisementSome Wall Street analysts predict the Fed's first cut could come as soon as July, though most see a rate cut in September as the most likely scenario. "But rate cuts starting by September should now be cemented as overwhelmingly likely." Investors are waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak later Wednesday afternoon, which should give markets more guidance on the path of rate cuts.
Persons: , Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Ryan Severino, BGO, Jerome Powell, Weinand, David Russell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed
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