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☆ Gold tiptoes higher as investors focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices rose marginally on Wednesday, as investors awaited minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting to assess prospects of further interest rate hikes. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,835.40 per ounce, as of 0334 GMT. "Traders will be more sensitive to hawkish clues in the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes, which could weigh on gold prices," said City Index's Simpson. "There's a greater chance of gold testing $1,800 before it tests $1,900 over the foreseeable future," given the prospects of markets repricing a higher terminal Fed rate, Simpson added. The Fed is expected to raise benchmark rates above 5% by May with a peak seen at 5.352% in July.

☆ European shares hit fresh nine-month high on earnings boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Ankika Biswas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was up 0.8% at 0920 GMT, extending gains for a third straight session. Shares of Sweco AB (SWECb.ST), a Swedish construction and engineering company, jumped 11% to top the STOXX 600 following its upbeat fourth-quarter earnings. An over 5% gain in AstraZeneca (AZN.L) on 2023 earnings and revenue growth forecast boosted the healthcare sub-index (.SXDP). Of the 93 STOXX 600 companies that have reported earnings so far, more than half have beaten market expectations, Refinitiv data showed on Tuesday. Signs of economic resilience and better-than-feared corporate earnings have helped European stocks outperform their U.S. counterparts so far this year.

Many on Wall Street remain convinced that a widely expected recession is likely to roil markets once again sometime this year. Also encouraging for investors was Powell's repeated references to disinflation - a falling rate of inflation. "I think they do see a path where you can get that soft landing, that Goldilocks-type scenario play out," he said. Banks and asset managers that have reiterated recession calls in recent weeks include BlackRock, Wells Fargo and Neuberger Berman. "Do people think (rate cuts) will be in response to inflation that has been coming down or something more dramatic, in terms of economic slowdown?

☆ Stocks up, yields dip after U.S. data with Fed eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Other data showed consumer confidence eased in January, with inflation expectations over the next twelve months climbing to 6.8% from 6.6% last month. Investors will also closely monitor comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the announcement for clues on the path of monetary policy. Markets will also grapple with a host of U.S. economic data this week, culminating in Friday's payrolls report for January. Economic data for the euro zone showed slight growth for the fourth quarter, but further weakness is expected this year. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.22% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.20%.

☆ Bond investors brace for recession as Fed expected to slow pace of tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The rally comes after Treasuries notched the worst year in their history following the Fed's most aggressive monetary policy tightening since the 1980s. Some equity investors are nevertheless playing it safe, expecting the current rally in stocks to wilt if a recession hits. For now, many investors are wedded to a more dovish view, betting that policymakers will blink if growth starts to slow. "The Fed is closer to the end than the beginning, and rates usually fall across the curve when the Fed is finished raising rates." Of course, some investors are happy to take the central bank at its word and are betting rates stay higher for longer.

☆ Instant view: U.S. GDP grows in fourth quarter; weekly jobless claims fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate on Thursday. The swing in inventories was the wildcard and that added 1.46 percentage points to GDP growth. "If you look at the GDP data it does seem like we left 2022 with a little bit more momentum than people had thought and with consumption we're also in a pretty good spot. “We have a GDP number that is well above trend, and the previous quarter’s number was well above trend. That suggests higher rates were starting to take a bigger toll, and sets the stage for weaker growth in the first quarter of this year."

☆ European shares slip, euro firm as data tees up ECB rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/StaffLONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The euro held near a nine-month high against the dollar on Tuesday, though European stocks eased after regional business activity data reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise rates by a further 50 basis points. S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.3 in December, the first time it has been above the 50 mark since June. "For the ECB, this should seal the deal for a 50-basis point hike next week," said ING economists in a note. The Federal Reserve's rate setting committee concludes its two-day meeting on Feb. 1, with the ECB and Bank of England meeting the next day. The euro , in contrast was steady at $1.0862, just off its nine-month high of $1.0927 hit a day before.

☆ European shares slide, euro steady as data tees up ECB rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.3 in December, the first time it has been above the 50 mark since June. Britain's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), however, dropped to 47.8 in January from 49.0 in December, the lowest since January 2021. U.S. PMI data is due later in the day. The European common currency was steady at $1.0865, just off its nine-month high of $1.0927 hit a day before. Sterling turned negative after the British data and lost 0.5% to $1.231, retreating from Monday's seven-month high.

☆ The First ETF Launched 30 Years Ago, Revolutionizing Investing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( Jack Pitcher | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Thirty years ago, the launch of the first exchange-traded fund ushered in a new era of investing. Now, the industry is bringing exotic trading strategies to the masses. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which tracks the benchmark U.S. stock index, gave investors the ability to buy and sell hundreds of stocks through a single, publicly traded share for the first time.

☆ Stocks rise, dollar stumbles after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 7, 2022. U.S consumer prices fell in December for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years as prices fell for gasoline and other goods, suggesting inflation was on a sustained downward trend. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a signal of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% and then rebounding. Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Stocks climb, dollar falls after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Still, a separate reading on the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims came in at 205,000, below expectations of 215,000. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a key sign of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% before rebounding. Richmond Federal Reserve president Tom Barkin echoed the sentiment about the data and said it allowed the Fed to "steer more deliberately". Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Stocks gain, yields fall after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Still, a separate reading on the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims came in at 205,000, below expectations of 215,000. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a key sign of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% before rebounding. "The fact that we have seen core inflation decelerate to 5.7% year-over-year, from 6% in November, reinforces the peak inflation argument." Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Gold firms as dollar eases ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies U.S. CPI due at 1330 GMT(.DXY) down 0.1%Jan 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices ticked higher on Thursday, aided by a softer dollar, while market participants awaited key U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy path. "Gold prices are very well supported as the dollar has weakened. If the inflation report is supportive for gold, then prices could move up to $1,900 level, but there might be some profit booking after that, Kedia added. Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. On the physical front, Indian gold refiners have nearly stopped imports of gold dore, a semi-pure alloy, as grey market operators offer hefty discounts, industry officials said.

☆ Morning Bid: Knocking on CPI's door
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Jan 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Stephen Culp. Economists at many big banks are revising up their GDP growth forecasts for the second half of this year. Further signs of cooling inflation could raise the possibility of a pause in monetary policy. On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic provided assurances that it will be "appropriate and important" for the Fed to exercise caution as it calibrates its war on inflation. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Asia stocks hit 4-month high on reopening of Chinese economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1% to touch a four-month high in morning trade. China has abruptly dropped ultra-strict curbs on travel and activity, unleashing the virus on the nation's 1.4 billion people. The yuan rose about 0.2% to 6.8750 on Thursday. China has partially eased an unofficial ban on Australian coal imports and the Australian dollar made a three-week high overnight just below $0.69. In Europe, unseasonally warm weather has disappointed skiers but been a boon for a euro basking in falling gas prices.

☆ Morning bid: Wakey wakey!
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Any surprises could provide a shock to current market pricing for rate cuts to begin late this year. That reaction suggests, according to ING, that should the minutes fail to confirm that dovish bias, Treasury yields are likely to rise. Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) share index also rose around 1%, set for its third day of gains as the positive mood swept through European markets. That could all change, however, if markets decide the Fed minutes and the economic data suggest significantly more U.S. rate hikes are needed this year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Dollar adrift as optimism over China reopening turns to caution
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Dec 29 (Reuters) - The dollar pared some gains on Thursday after riding long-end U.S. Treasury yields higher overnight, though investors remained on edge going into the year end as initial optimism over China's reopening fizzled. The speed at which the country has scrapped COVID rules has overwhelmed its health system and sparked concerns about the spread of the virus. The Japanese yen was last roughly 0.6% higher at 133.71 per dollar, languishing near a one-week low of 134.50 that was hit in the previous session. Sterling rose 0.1% to $1.2030, but was similarly not far off its three-week trough of $1.1993 hit last week. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury last stood at 3.8637%, after rising to a more than one-month high of 3.8920% overnight.

☆ Dollar steadies as optimism over China reopening turns to caution
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Dec 29 (Reuters) - The dollar steadied on Thursday after riding long-end U.S. Treasury yields higher overnight, as initial optimism over China's reopening fizzled. Following China's removal of its quarantine rule for inbound travellers beginning Jan. 8, countries such as the United States, Japan and India said they would require COVID tests for travellers from China. Sterling rose 0.19% to $1.2040, but was similarly not far off its three-week trough of $1.1993 hit last week. The uncertainty over the global economic outlook, along with mounting worries about a recession in the U.S., saw the two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, slip overnight. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury last stood at 3.8656%, after rising to a more than one-month high of 3.8920% overnight.

☆ Gold prices inch higher as U.S. dollar, yields slip
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices ticked up on Thursday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields eased, with market participants awaiting new indications on the Federal Reserve's rate hike plans. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields eased after hitting a six-week high in the previous session. If it shows an increases in claims, then it should weaken dollar and support gold," said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities, Mumbai. Bullion is on track for a yearly decline of about 1% pressured by aggressive U.S. rate hikes. "In 2022, gold has already priced in the rate hikes.

☆ European shares rise on financials, energy boost amid festive cheer
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Amruta Khandekar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The region-wide STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) was up 0.4% at a one-week high, taking cues from an upbeat session on Wall Street overnight. "What we're seeing is a recovery in risk appetite after a fairly negative set of central bank meetings for equities," said Adam Hoyes, markets economist at Capital Economics. The STOXX 600 (.STOXX) has fallen about 11% so far in 2022, but it has still outperformed the benchmark U.S. S&P 500 index (.SPX), which has declined 18.6% and is on track for its worst yearly performance since 2008. Euro zone bond yields struggled for direction on Thursday as investors took stock of a surge in borrowing costs in the wake of last week's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. London's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) rose 0.5% despite data showing Britain's economy contracted more than expected in the third quarter.

☆ Analysis: Investors count on bonds to rescue battered 60/40 portfolio in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A 60/40 portfolio, which typically allocates 60% of assets into stocks and 40% into bonds, counts on moves in the two asset classes to offset one another, with stocks strengthening amid economic optimism and bonds rising during uncertain times. So-called 60/40 portfolios, which mix stocks and bonds, are on place for their first down year since 2018. Though market participants tend to avoid bonds during inflationary times, they are a popular destination for haven-seeking investors when the economy wobbles. Consecutive annual declines in the 60/40 portfolio have been rare. Higher-than-expected borrowing costs or rebounding inflation could deal another blow to investors in both stocks and bonds.

[1/2] A worker shelters from the rain under a Union Flag umbrella as he passes the London Stock Exchange in London, Britain, October 1, 2008. An investor in Wood Group (WG.L), an oilfield services company, urged the company to buy back some of its own shares to avoid being a target. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 (.FTMC) is down by almost a fifth this year while the internationally-focused blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) is up 0.8% thanks to a drop in the pound. A currency advantage alone does not necessarily kick-start deals though, according to Owain Evans, co-head of UK M&A for Goldman Sachs. "Large corporates continue to look at 'bolt-ons', where they can draw on existing facilities to do those deals, that's why the mid-cap space is attractive to the strategics in this environment," said Celia Murray, head of UK M&A at JPMorgan.

☆ Oil up $2 a barrel on supply risks amid ongoing Keystone outage
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $73.17 a barrel, rising $2.15, or 3%. The potential of a prolonged outage of TC Energy Corp's Canada-to-U.S. Keystone crude oil pipeline helped turn prices around. Traders worried about how long it would take to clean up and restart the Keystone oil pipeline after more than 14,000 barrels of oil leaked last week, the largest U.S. crude oil spill in nearly a decade. The outage is expected to shrink supplies at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub, and delivery point for benchmark U.S. crude oil futures. "The emergent EU embargo on Russian crude... may add moderate upside energy price risks in the next few months.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee eyes stronger opening on subdued dollar, oil prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was expected to open slightly stronger against the U.S. currency on Thursday, amid weaker oil prices and as the dollar dropped overnight on growth concerns in the world's top economy. The partially convertible rupee was seen around 82.30-82.35 per dollar in the opening trades, compared to its previous close of 82.47. Monitoring debt and equity inflows will be key, but the rupee could head towards 82.50-levels, the trader added. Several executives at top U.S. banks this week have warned about this possibility. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India hiked the key repo rate by 35 basis points (bps) to 6.25% on Wednesday but sounded more hawkish than market expectations about fighting inflation.

Economists said the reading pointed to elevated labor costs and inflation staying high, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates. "Slower rate hikes have been the trend globally of late, but the Fed remains a wild card. Overall, it's a fickle, anxious market ahead of next week’s Fed meeting," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. Many in the market believe inflation is moderating and bond yields have peaked, allowing the Fed and other central banks to begin slowing rate hikes when policy-makers meet next week. Gold prices rose, helped by a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields, as investors anticipate the projection of slower rate hikes at the Fed's meeting on Dec. 13-14.

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