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SummarySummary Companies Profit lifted by strong tradingBP to purchase $1.75 bln of sharesLONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - BP (BP.L) made a $5 billion profit in the first quarter of 2023, up from the previous three months on the back of strong oil and gas trading as the company pared back a share buyback programme. The profit reflects "an exceptional gas marketing and trading result, a lower level of refinery turnaround activity and a very strong oil trading result", BP said, noting the partial offset from lower oil and gas prices and refining margins. Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel in the first three months of the year, down 16% from a year earlier and 7% from the fourth-quarter. BP's profit hit a record $28 billion in 2022 on soaring energy prices and market volatility which benefited its large trading business. The company had said in February it would repurchase $2.75 billion worth of shares over the next three months after buying $11.7 billion in 2022.

Crude imports in March were 12.37 million bpd, while domestic output was 4.30 million bpd, giving a combined total of 16.67 million bpd. Subtracting the refinery throughput leaves 1.56 million bpd that likely flowed into either commercial or strategic inventories. The question for the oil market is what does it all mean for the outlook for crude oil demand in China? There is nothing inherently wrong with OPEC+'s forecast for global oil demand growth of 2.32 million bpd in 2023, or the 2 million bpd forecast from the International Energy Agency. By building stockpiles now, they can reduce crude imports later in the year if they deem prices to be too high.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 18 (Reuters) - There is an increasing disconnect between the forecasts for strong global oil demand growth this year, led by Asia, and the reality of weakening margins for refined fuels. The profit from turning a barrel of Dubai crude into refined products at a typical Singapore refinery dropped to $2.53 a barrel on Monday. The falling margins on refined fuels may result in refiners in Asia processing less, especially as crude costs continue to rise. Despite the current problems facing refiners, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are sticking to bullish forecasts for crude demand growth in 2023. OPEC is also maintaining a bullish view for 2023 oil demand growth, keeping its forecast for an increase of 2.32 million bpd in its latest monthly report.

☆ India-China competition, OPEC cuts nudge Urals above price cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MOSCOW/SINGAPORE, April 5 (Reuters) - Russian Urals oil broke through the $60 per barrel price cap on Wednesday, boosted by strength in international benchmark Brent after OPEC+ announced an output cut, three sources involved in Russian oil trade said and Reuters calculations showed. The price cap was introduced in December by G7 countries and Washington said it would help to avoid supply disruptions by keeping Russian oil flowing, while limiting revenues for Russia's President Vladimir Putin. The Urals oil price for a particular deal is normally calculated on the basis of a monthly or several-days average of Brent differentials. Given current ICE Brent and dated Brent prices, Urals oil cargoes on Wednesday traded slightly above $60 per barrel on a FOB (free on board) basis in Russian western ports, according to Reuters calculations. If international prices fall, the actual price of the deal could still be below the cap.

This brings the total pledged output cuts by the group to around 3.66 million bpd, around 3.7% of global demand, and these are expected to remain in place until the end of the year. Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, said the additional reduction is precautionary and aimed at achieving stability in the global oil market. Contained within the decision to cut output is the tacit admission that the demand side of the crude equation may not be as bullish as had been forecast by virtually every major energy body and the analyst community. Most likely it would have been well below the $79.77 a barrel it ended at on March 31, which was the closing price before Sunday's shock move to further cut output. China has also been accumulating more oil than it is consuming, despite rising domestic demand and refinery processing rates.

☆ China's demand comeback to help oil weather banking crisis: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Bharat Gautam | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A survey of 45 economists and analysts forecast benchmark Brent crude would average $86.49 a barrel this year, down from February's estimate of $89.23. "The dip in oil prices is more of a blip at the moment, rather than a sustained move below $80 per barrel". Most analysts polled by Reuters expect oil prices to stay below $90 on fears of a recession in developed economies stemming from interest rate increases to bring down inflation. "Oil demand in China should pick up a bit further over the year. Reuters GraphicsAlong with China, prices will also hinge on potentially declining Russian oil production due to Western sanctions, with a combination of the two likely tightening global supplies, analysts said.

Oil futures have fallen over 8% since last Friday as the collapse of SVB Financial (SIVB.O) and peer Signature Bank (SBNY.O) prompted concerns of a wider banking crisis. Investors in the oil market, including oil producers, have rushed to buy put options, used to either bet on or protect against downside movement. For U.S. crude futures options open interest, the ratio of puts to calls is the highest since August 2022. The discount of later-dated oil futures contracts to the front-month contract tightened on Wednesday, indicating that market participants were less confident in short-term demand. That short-term uncertainty should buoy put buying, Price Futures Group's Flynn said.

The profits follow similar reports in February from international peers BP, Shell, Exxon Mobil and Chevron which have mostly posted record profits for last year. Aramco's capital expenditure rose 18% to $37.6 billion in 2022 and the company said it expects this year's spending to be around $45.0 billion to $55.0 billion including external investments. Aramco declared a dividend of $19.5 billion for the fourth quarter, an increase of 4% from the previous quarter. Free cash flow reached a record of $148.5 billion in 2022, compared to $107.5 billion in 2021. Prices cooled rapidly in the second half of 2022 as central banks hiked interest rates and fanned worries of recession.

Schwedt has traditionally supplied 90% of the gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil used in Germany's capital city. Moscow last month retaliated against their bilateral efforts by halting oil flows to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline, thereby squeezing Poland’s ability to free up oil for Schwedt. Polish state-controlled refiner PKN Orlen now needs to use more capacity at the Gdansk oil terminal to feed its own Plock refinery. ROSNEFT STAKEGermany and Poland started discussions about shipping non-Russian oil to Schwedt via the port of Gdansk, Polish pipelines and Druzhba in early spring 2022. KEBCOIn a move that further complicated talks with Poland, Germany late last year approached Kazakhstan about supplies for Schwedt, sparking new concerns in Warsaw.

☆ Persistent underinvestment in the oil sector will keep global supply tight, Aramco CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Chronic underinvestment in the hydrocarbons sector will keep global supply tight, the head of the world's largest oil company warned, suggesting higher future energy prices as China's reopening and the comeback of the aviation industry gather pace. Asked by CNBC's Dan Murphy about the current state of the oil market, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said, "A persistent underinvestment in oil upstream and even downstream is still there. The latest report from the IEA talks about a demand of 101.7 million barrels — going from 100 million barrels in 2022 to almost 2 million barrels more with China opening up and the aviation industry," which hasn't yet returned to pre-Covid levels. "There is a lot of potential for growth in aviation," Nasser said. Larger-than-expected U.S. fuel stocks in recent months and expectations of weaker global growth have helped lower energy prices.

☆ Oil prices turn positive after falling by $2 a barrel on a report UAE is considering leaving OPEC
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The logo of the OPEC is pictured at the OPEC headquarters on October 4, 2022. DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — International oil benchmark Brent crude dropped as much as 2.8% on Friday morning in New York on the back of a report that the United Arab Emirates is internally discussing leaving OPEC, the powerful 13-member oil producer alliance. Brent later recouped its losses and turned positive, trading at $85.23 per barrel at 11:30 a.m. This would have a significant impact on the oil producer group's global clout, as well as allow the UAE to pursue its own oil production plans that suit its interests. Abu Dhabi has for some time wanted to increase its crude output to boost its revenue but has been limited by OPEC+ production agreements dominated by the group's kingpin and largest producer, Saudi Arabia.

☆ Canadian Natural Resources Q4 profit misses on lower output, prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Companies Canadian Natural Resources Ltd FollowMarch 2 (Reuters) - Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ.TO) missed market expectations for fourth-quarter profit on Thursday, as the energy firm was hurt by lower liquid prices and severe winter weather that hampered its production. Winter storm Elliott barreled through the United States and Canada in mid-December, hitting several oil production sites along the way that caused freeze-ins and equipment failures. Canadian Natural said its production declined 1.5% to 1.29 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the quarter ended Dec. 31. Canadian Natural said its fourth-quarter liquids realized price fell nearly 5% to C$69.34 per barrel. ($1 = 1.3612 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Sourasis Bose in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber, Uttaresh.V and Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil slips as dollar firms, Russia pipeline halt limits slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, Russia halted supplies of oil to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline, Polish refiner PKN Orlen (PKN.WA) said on Saturday, a day after Poland said it had delivered its first Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Russian pipeline operator Transneft blamed the halt on a lack of completed paperwork for supplies for the second half of February. Russia announced plans earlier this month to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding its previously mooted production cuts of 5%. "Russian oil output has exceeded expectations in recent months due to lax EU/US sanctions," Bank of America said in a note. Adding some downside pressure, U.S. crude oil inventories surged to the highest level since May 2021 last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.

Benchmark Australian thermal coal at Newcastle Port closed last week at $195.13 a tonne, down from the $249.25 the week prior to the attack on Ukraine. But these fears were never fully realised, largely because Russian commodities were re-routed to new buyers and some consuming nations cut consumption of commodities such as natural gas. There are ongoing consequences of the initial spike in commodity prices, with retail fuel and electricity costs in many countries still well above pre-invasion levels. Such a situation maintains China's access to cheap Russian commodities, increases Moscow's dependence on Beijing, while keeping Western countries focused on the war and its costs to their economies and political unity. It's also worth noting that in the months after the invasion much commentary was devoted to how Russia was benefiting from the higher commodity prices and how the Western sanctions on Moscow's exports were failing.

☆ Morgan Stanley ups 2023 oil demand growth estimate by 36%, flags Russia risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 22 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley has raised its global oil demand growth estimate for this year by about 36%, citing growing momentum in China's reopening and a recovery in aviation, but flagged higher supply from Russia as an offseting factor. Global oil consumption is now expected to increase by about 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), versus its previous 1.4 million bpd forecast, the bank said in a note dated Tuesday. "Mobility indicators for China, such as congestion, have been rising steadily," while "flight schedules have firmed-up the outlook for jet fuel demand," the bank said. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 Brent price forecast and raised its global supply forecasts for 2023 and 2024, with Russia, Kazakhstan and the United States the most notable upward adjustments. But Goldman also noted that a 1.1 million bpd rise in Chinese demand this year should push oil markets back into a deficit in June.

☆ Sanctions on Russian oil are having the 'intended effect,' IEA says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Russia announced that it would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March after the West slapped price caps on Russian oil and oil products. The European Union's embargo on Russian oil products came into effect on Feb. 5, building on the $60 oil price cap implemented by the G-7 (Group of Seven) major economies on Dec. 5. Bosoni, who's head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC on Wednesday that Russian oil production and exports had held up "much better than expected" in recent months. Some Russian oil is also still making its way to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline and Bulgaria, both of which are exempt from EU embargo. watch now"The price cap was put in place to allow for Russian oil to continue to flow to market, but at the same time reducing Russian revenues.

☆ Exclusive: After costly bond issue, Mexico's Pemex banks on high oil prices to pay off debt -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Ana Isabel Martinez | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The high cost of borrowing forced a recalibration in Pemex and renewed determination to avoid the market, two company sources familiar with the matter said. Pemex has said it must pay back some $8 billion of financial debt this year and $8.7 billion next. But both sources said Pemex was banking on high crude oil prices to maintain the investments for this year as well as meet its financial obligations - without issuing more bonds. Financial debt started ballooning years ago when the oil company took on debt to pay its debts. Pemex declined to reveal the total value of debt payments due and Reuters was unable to independently calculate the figure.

☆ IMF’s outlook on Russia is too rosy to be true
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The international body recently estimated that Russia will avoid a recession in 2023 and expand by 0.3% after shrinking by 2.2% in 2022. The measures will not “significantly” affect Russia’s oil exports, the Fund says. That is a matter of intense debate among economists since oil prices remain below the cap set by the G7. Much will depend on the evolution of oil prices this year. But only a serious oil price rally, improbable in the context of the global economy’s “subpar growth” - to quote the IMF - could justify looking at Russia through rosy glasses.

"Judging by the customs statistics, some of the benefit was captured by refiners in India and China, but the main beneficiaries must be oil shippers, intermediaries and the Russian oil companies," he added. As a further complication, some Russian oil grades, including Pacific grade ESPO, are also worth more than Urals. After decades of low profits or losses, sections of the global shipping industry are enjoying a financial boom from moving Russian oil. A year ago, a similar journey would have cost a seller of Russian oil $0.5-$1.0 million depending on shipping rates. Nayara is 49%-owned by Russian state oil major Rosneft, run by Putin's ally Igor Sechin, meaning some of the profits are indirectly captured by Russia.

☆ Western sanctions push Russia's energy revenues to lowest level since 2020
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Darya Korsunskaya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 3 (Reuters) - Russia's monthly budget revenues from oil and gas fell in January to their lowest level since August 2020 under the impact of Western sanctions on Russian exports, Finance Ministry data showed on Friday. January's figure stood at 425.5 billion roubles ($6.05 billion). The West - previously Russia's most lucrative energy market - has responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine by targeting its energy revenues through an unprecedented package of sanctions that is set to tighten further. The average price in January was $49.48 a barrel, the finance ministry said, down 42% on January 2022. The Russian government earned 11.6 trillion roubles ($165 billion) on oil and gas sales last year, the finance ministry said.

☆ Oil prices steady after smaller-than-expected U.S. crude build
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Shariq Khan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Smaller-than-expected build in U.S. crude stocksBroader markets weighed by economic slowdown concernsU.S. business activity contracts in JanuaryOPEC+ unlikely to tweak oil policy at Feb. 1 meetingBENGALURU, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices were largely unchanged on Wednesday, after government data showed a smaller-than-anticipated build in U.S. crude inventories, countering weak economic data from Tuesday. Brent crude was up 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $86.38 a barrel by 1:41 p.m. EST (1841 GMT) after declining 2.3% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.6%, to $80.62 a barrel, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday. "If we look at crude, the increase in stocks was much smaller-than-anticipated, and that is raising concerns about tightness in supply. On Wednesday, oil prices and broader financial markets were weighed down by data published on Tuesday showing U.S. business activity contracted in January for the seventh-straight month, raising concerns about an economic slowdown.

☆ Oil edges up after less-than-expected U.S. inventories rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Shariq Khan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $80.52 a barrel, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday. U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 533,000 barrels in the last week to 448.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. "If we look at crude, the increase in stocks was much smaller-than-anticipated, and that is raising concerns about tightness in supply. An OPEC+ panel is likely to endorse the group's current policy at a Feb. 1 meeting, OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday. OPEC+ in October decided to trim output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023 on a weaker economic outlook.

☆ Russia's windfall from high energy prices in 2022 is 'starting to wear out,' but it's still making $687 million a day despite the EU ban, new research shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Moscow's oil revenues have taken a hit from the EU's ban on most Russian oil imports and a $60 a barrel price cap, per a Finnish researcher. But Russia is still making $687 million each day from exporting fossil fuels. The CREA recommends the G7 and EU further cut its Russia oil price cap to $25-$35 a barrel. The report — which came about a month after the EU's embargo and the price cap kicked in on December 5 — determined that Russia's losing 160 million euros, or $172 million, each day, thanks to the sanctions. "The price cap coalition has a strong leverage to push down the price caps, said the CREA.

☆ Energy Bulls Are Getting Paid to Stay Calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Carol Ryan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

In the past two months, Shell and other oil giants have given up some of last year’s striking outperformance versus broad European markets, but they haven’t followed oil and gas prices south. Energy prices and energy stocks have moved in different directions in recent months. The wind will change one way or the other. Benchmark Brent crude has fallen to around $80 a barrel, having averaged $101 in 2022. China’s messy reopening after almost three years of Covid-19 restrictions and the prospect of a global recession caused by rising interest-rate rises have weakened the outlook for oil demand.

☆ Energy will be the big winner of 2023, investor says — and names the stocks to cash in
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Energy stocks had a bumper year in 2022 — it was the best-performing sector by a long mile and is expected to remain a big winner this year, according to investment veteran Louis Navellier. "I am expecting energy stocks to lead in 2023, since they have the strongest forecasted sales and earnings," Navellier, who is chairman and founder of growth investing firm Navellier & Associates, told CNBC Wednesday. Navellier's optimism comes amid a slow start for the energy sector. As such, it's now time for "seasonal demand to start pushing up crude oil prices," Navellier told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia." He expects energy stocks to eventually comprise approximately 30% of the S & P 500 , up from the current 6%.

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