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☆ Gold holds tight range as traders seek direction from US data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Arundhati Sarkar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold held its ground at $1,997.40 per ounce by 0307 GMT. Investors seemed reluctant to offload their gold holdings amid weak U.S. economic data, and "trading conditions will remain choppy, and any dips towards $1,950 could be snapped up," said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at City Index. Recessionary fears already seem to be providing a floor for gold prices, and "Friday's personal consumption expenditures report will likely pack the biggest punch for gold," Simpson added. Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, higher interest rates dim the non-yielding asset's appeal. Palladium gained 1.1% to $1,499.47, on track to snap two session of losses, if gains hold.

☆ Bitcoin volatility is back to pre-banking crisis lows, but crypto futures show investor optimism is building
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This means traders expect bitcoin prices will increase and may be willing to pay a premium for longer-dated futures contracts in anticipation of those higher prices. The banking crisis opened many investors' eyes to the range of bitcoin's nonspeculative use cases, specifically its potential as an alternative banking system. As worries about U.S. banks have waned and inflation has eased, some are concerned the fallout from the U.S. banking crisis could tilt the economy into recession this year. The drop in bitcoin volatility also comes as the stock market's "fear index," the Cboe Volatility Index , has fallen to about 17 from 26 at the height of the banking crisis. New catalysts for volatility While the banking crisis briefly put some life back into the crypto market , tension between the crypto industry and U.S. regulators remains as a dark cloud over it.

That is the biggest net short position since October 2011, and marks the fourth week in five that funds have increased their bet on weaker U.S. stocks. Reuters ImageA short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. It has been a mixed bag with almost a fifth of the S&P 500 firms having reported. The S&P 500 has rebounded nearly 10% from the March banking shock lows, and if the options market is any guide, traders are sanguine about the near-term outlook. The VIX index of implied volatility - the Wall Street "fear index" - last week hit its lowest since November 2021.

☆ Banking turmoil isn't over as regional lenders face risk of commercial-property credit losses, JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Regional banks' troubles aren't over and remain "an area of concern", JPMorgan Asset Management's Jonathan Liang said. They are facing increased risks of credit losses in the commercial-property sector, which may come under stress, he said. And so we think that in the coming year or two, there's going to be growing distress in this space, and that will also potentially amount to credit losses for those US regional banks," he added. Many experts have warned the US commercial real-estate sector could face problems as high borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions following the recent banking turmoil complicate matters for big property owners as they seek to refinance loans. Nearly $450 billion in commercial real-estate debt is due to mature in 2023 - meaning a final payment on those loans are due, per data cited from Trepp by JPMorgan.

☆ Gold drifts lower on firmer dollar, Fed rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies US dollar up 0.1%Markets pricing in 25 bps rate hike by Fed in MayApril 19 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, while traders assessed chances of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates just once more in May before pausing. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,003.03 per ounce, as of 0337 GMT. The dollar index was up 0.1%, making gold expensive for buyers holding other currencies. "While that may provide an anchor for gold prices, given the recent rally and overextended technical conditions, the possibility of some unwinding (in prices) upon validation of the Fed's rate outlook may still remain on the table." Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates dim the non-yielding asset's appeal.

☆ Bitcoin and ether fall as investors weigh persistent inflation and rising interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin has been closely correlated with stock indexes, in particular the Nasdaq, which rose on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 0.75 percentage point. The price of bitcoin was last lower by about 3% and trading at $29,202.54, while ether fell 5% to $1,977.28. Bitcoin slid toward $29,000 on Wednesday as traders mulled over the likelihood that Federal Reserve rate cuts may be further away than they thought. Meanwhile in the U.S., Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Tuesday that he anticipates one more 25 basis point interest rate increase and then a hold "for quite some time." "It is hard to trust any crypto rally with the state of market liquidity, so a sharp drop towards the downside is hardly a surprise."

☆ Landlords pumped billions into apartment buildings during the pandemic. That bet could now go horribly wrong.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Big money investors pumped billions into buying up apartment buildings in the pandemic era. But fault lines have emerged for investors who paid top dollar for assets that depended on substantial rent increases and persistent low interest rates to achieve profitability. In those years, investors purchased $355.5 billion and $299.2 billion worth of apartment buildings, according to MSCI — unprecedented sums that far surpassed the previous $194 billion record of multifamily sales in 2019. "It's early, but it's going to become a bigger story, especially if interest rates stay high and lending standards are tight," said Alan Todd, the head of commercial-mortgage-backed-securities strategy at BofA Global Research. As these short-term debts come due, they will be difficult to swap with commensurately sized loans today, because of the falling values, higher interest rates, and lender caution.

☆ Landlords who bought thousands of apartments are facing a reckoning
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Investors showed outsize interest in apartment buildings during the pandemic. Rents and occupancy rates were rising, interest rates remained relatively low, and rental-property prices were climbing with no sign of letting up during a surge in housing demand. Laguna Point did not respond to a request for comment. Marc McDevitt, a senior managing director at Cred iQ, said it was possible Laguna Point had lost some, or even all, of its investment in the deal. While offices have been going through a paradigmatic shift as more workers do their jobs remotely, apartment buildings have experienced robust demand from tenants.

ORLANDO, Florida, April 10 (Reuters) - Hedge funds started the second quarter positioning for a steeper U.S. yield curve by offloading 10-year U.S. Treasuries futures at one of the fastest rates on record. In one way, betting on a steeper 2s/10s yield curve indicates funds are hoping the trend of recent weeks continues - the curve steepened around 33 basis points in March, the biggest monthly steepening in a decade. The difference is, that was driven by a massive "bull-steepening," buying two-year futures when the banking shock forced funds to cover their near-record short position. In the week through April 4 funds increased their 10-year Treasuries futures net short position by almost 150,000 contracts. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise.

☆ The salary you need to live comfortably in 15 major U.S. cities
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Isabel Engel | In Isabel--Engel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Overall, Americans need an average post-tax income of $68,499 to live comfortably in the U.S., according to recent data from SmartAsset. SmartAsset's study analyzed the after-tax income needed to live in the nation's 25 largest metro areas comfortably. The post-tax salary needed in these 25 areas increased by around 20% throughout 2022, while inflation grew about 8%. "Inflation is taking a bigger bite out of their paychecks and the cost of living is rising. What does it take in these cities to really feel not just like you're surviving financially, but like you're comfortable?

☆ This China ETF is a bullish bet with mitigated risk, options trader says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) could be a good bet for investors bullish on Beijing, according to Michael Khouw of Optimize Advisors. "I think this is sort of a risk-mitigated way to make a bullish bet if you're inclined to go that way," he said Tuesday on CNBC's "Fast Money." A call option gives the buyer the right but not the obligation to buy a security at a specified price and by a set date. A call spread strategy is a bet that an asset's price will rise within a specified range: An investor uses two call options, one with a lower strike price and one with a higher strike price, to create that range. The ETF has gained 3.4% this year, meaning it has underperformed the broader S & P 500 's 6.8% gain.

ORLANDO, Florida, March 22 (Reuters) - First the record wager on higher U.S. interest rates, now the record wipe out. Their record net short position in three-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures of 1.17 million contracts was slashed to 329,638 contracts in the week through March 14. chartchartExpectations of a 6% fed funds rate have long faded. In bonds and interest rates, yields and implied rates fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall. The latest CFTC figures also revealed how the recent surge in volatility has put speculative accounts trading three-month SOFR futures out of the market.

☆ Bitcoin’s market dominance is climbing. Here’s what that says about interest rate expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin's market dominance has been climbing in March and is now up to levels not seen since June. Investors use it to determine which parts of the crypto market are outperforming or underperforming relative to their peers. When bitcoin dominance climbs, it implies that bitcoin is doing well, but more specifically, it means its outperforming altcoins. Bitcoin dominance has risen steadily since March 8, the day after Silvergate Bank announced its voluntary liquidation. "That's reflecting a view that a lot of macro investors have, that we're either at or very near the bottom of this macro cycle."

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows that speculators held the largest ever net short position in three-month SOFR rate futures in the week ending March 7, only a few weeks after amassing a record short position in two-year Treasuries futures. Implied rates then plunged as much as 200 basis points in a week as traders drastically redrew their Fed outlook. Analysts at Deutsche Bank say the huge disconnect between bond and rates volatility over equity volatility recently is partly down to the extreme positioning in fixed income. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds and interest rates, yields and implied rates fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall.

☆ Here's how to report 2022 crypto losses on your tax return
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

But if you're still recovering from last year's losses, it may be possible to score a tax break on your 2022 return. The crypto market plunged by nearly $1.4 trillion in 2022 after a series of bankruptcies, liquidity issues and the collapse of FTX, one of the biggest crypto exchanges. If you're itching to claim a crypto loss on your taxes, there are a few things to know, experts say. Offset gains with crypto lossesOne of the silver linings of plummeting assets is the chance to leverage tax-loss harvesting, or using losses to offset gains. If your crypto losses exceed other investment gains and $3,000 of regular income, you can use the rest in subsequent years, Greene-Lewis said.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data published on Tuesday shows that speculators held the largest net short position in three-month 'SOFR' rate futures since September, and the biggest net short 10-year Treasuries futures position since 2018. While they trimmed their net short 2-year Treasuries futures position, it was only a reduction of around 5% from the record short a couple of weeks earlier. They trimmed their two-year futures net short to 656,575 contracts - two weeks prior they were net short 696,686 contracts, a record. chartA short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds and interest rates, yields and implied rates fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidORLANDO, Fla., March 5 (Reuters) - Hedge funds entered February holding their biggest ever short position in two-year U.S. Treasuries futures. As of Feb. 7, funds' net short position in two-year Treasury futures stood at a record 658,802 contracts, up by more than 80,000 contracts from the week before. chartA short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. FLIP-FLOP ON FEDThe two-year yield last week reached 4.95%, the highest since July 2007. They see the two-year yield falling to 3.55% in the third quarter and 3.15% by the end of this year.

☆ Fed getting closer to terminal rate will taper the dollar rally, says BK Asset's Boris Schlossberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed getting closer to terminal rate will taper the dollar rally, says BK Asset's Boris SchlossbergBoris Schlossberg, managing director at BK Asset Management, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the surprising strength of Monster Beverages' stock, strengthening currency implications on equities and international stocks benefiting from central bank policies.

☆ Gold faces worst month in nearly two years on U.S. rate-hike dread
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices eased on Tuesday and were headed for their biggest monthly loss since June 2021 as impending interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve sapped the non-yielding asset's appeal. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,816.19 per ounce as of 0317 GMT, after hitting a two-month low on Monday. "The question is still, 'How much more to hawkish Fed repricing?' "A pause in hawkish Fed repricing could see USD momentum ease and that can provide support to gold." Markets expect the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.403% in September.

☆ Unemployment numbers have a unique impact on tech stocks: Deepwater Asset's Gene Munster
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUnemployment numbers have a unique impact on tech stocks: Deepwater Asset's Gene MunsterGene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss at what point Munster believes there's value in equity markets, if it's possible to bring down inflation with low unemployment, and more.

☆ Gold tiptoes higher as investors focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices rose marginally on Wednesday, as investors awaited minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting to assess prospects of further interest rate hikes. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,835.40 per ounce, as of 0334 GMT. "Traders will be more sensitive to hawkish clues in the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes, which could weigh on gold prices," said City Index's Simpson. "There's a greater chance of gold testing $1,800 before it tests $1,900 over the foreseeable future," given the prospects of markets repricing a higher terminal Fed rate, Simpson added. The Fed is expected to raise benchmark rates above 5% by May with a peak seen at 5.352% in July.

☆ After a tough year for crypto, here's how to handle losses on your tax return
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Plus, there's currently no "wash sale rule" for crypto. The rule blocks the tax break if you buy a "substantially identical" asset 30 days before or after the sale. If your crypto losses exceed other investment gains and $3,000 of regular income, you can use the rest in subsequent years, Greene-Lewis said. But it's easy to lose track of carryover losses and miss future opportunities to lower taxes, she warned. If you wind up getting, say, 10% back after claiming a bad debt deduction, that 10% becomes regular income.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Deepwater Asset's Gene Munster
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Deepwater Asset's Gene MunsterGene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what recent cost cuts could mean for technology stocks.

ORLANDO, Fla., Jan 22 (Reuters) - A key part of the U.S. yield curve is the most inverted in decades and for hedge funds, enough is enough. It is the smallest net short since December 2021, and considering that short position exceeded 1 million contracts in early September, it is virtually neutral. Funds also increased their one-month SOFR net long position to over 67,000 contracts, the largest long since August. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. Meanwhile, speculators increased their net short 10-year Treasuries futures position by 133,699 contracts, the biggest weekly shift since last October, to 545,000 contracts.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data show that speculators closed 2022 with one of the smallest three-month SOFR rate futures short positions of the year, a light short dollar position, and substantial short positions cross the U.S. Treasuries curve. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. chartFunds' U.S. interest rate expectations reached fever pitch around August and September last year when their net short position exceeded 1 million contracts. chartIn the 10-year space, funds ended 2022 with their third largest net short position of the year, at 383,602 contracts. But funds have retained their substantial net short position.

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