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Morgan Stanley's favorite buys and shorts for earnings season
  + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Stocks are set for big swings this earnings season , and that spells opportunity for investors to buy and short some names, according to Morgan Stanley. More important for investors this earnings season will be the 2023 guidance, the firm said. Given this, traders should expect a rise in price dispersion over the next couple weeks as corporate earnings season unwinds. Seventy companies in the S & P 500 have released results so far this earnings season, according to FactSet data. Here are three positive names, and two negative, that Morgan Stanley highlighted: Bath & Body Works will react positively to earnings, according to Morgan Stanley.
Bitcoin is up almost 40% since the beginning of the month and new year, but retail traders are still sitting on the sidelines, according to Mizuho. Mizuho polled more than 170 Coinbase retail customers and asked about their trading behavior in December and January. "Retail trading is COIN's bread and butter, as it accounted for 83% of total revenue in 2021," Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev said in the note. Mizuho reiterated its underperform rating on Coinbase and said it sees potential downside of about 45% for the shares. We found that COIN's share of combined volumes during the rally (e.g.
Medical device makers, like many manufacturers, have faced challenges over the last year from inflationary supply chain costs, staffing shortages and the strong dollar impacting sales overseas. However, since 2007 the device sector ETF has averaged a gain of 14% per year, 6 percentage points better than the broader market index over the same period. More than 60% of analysts rate the shares a buy, with a mean price target implying 34% upside. Nearly 90% of analysts rate the stock a buy, with mean price target of $53, implying more than 30% upside. BTIG analysts Marie Thibault and Ryan Zimmerman think that M & A could be another catalyst for the medical device sector in 2023, with robotic surgery players likely to be of particular interest.
Here are Monday's biggest Wall Street calls: MKM downgrades Zoom to neutral from buy MKM said it sees growth stalling for the video-conferencing company. Baird adds Tractor Supply as a fresh pick Baird named Tractor Supply as a fresh pick, noting it sees upside to estimates. Barclays downgrades Warner Music to equal weight from overweight Barclays said the music company's financial performance is too volatile. Jefferies naming Caterpillar a top pick Jefferies said it sees upside to estimates for shares of Caterpillar. Barclays downgrades Tapestry to equal weight from overweight Barclays said it's concerned about a "negative promotional inflection" for Tapestry .
Six stocks Goldman Sachs likes ahead of earnings
  + stars: | 2023-01-21 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +7 min
Goldman Sachs' analysts have stocks they are confident about going into a new earnings season. The stocks we found are Amazon , ServiceNow , Colgate-Palmolive , Boeing , Microsoft and Cleveland-Cliffs . Colgate-Palmolive Analyst Jason English raised estimates ahead of Colgate-Palmolive's Jan. 27 earnings as headwinds from foreign exchange turn in to tailwinds. While English said the uncertain global environment could hurt Colgate's business, he still expects the toothpaste and soap maker to meet Goldman's 9% per-share earnings growth forecast for the year. Specifically, we are now forecasting AWS growth to decelerate to +21% YoY (vs. +27.5% YoY in Q3'22) with more subdued growth expectations in 2023.
Analysts are eagerly anticipating updates on Netflix's ads tier during its 4Q earnings call January 19. Netflix Basic with Ads has gotten off to a slow start, initially missing viewership targets. Subscriptions to the ad tier are expected to grow once the streamer cracks down on password sharing. The stock initially fell 9% on reports that Netflix was letting advertisers take money back after some ad campaigns fell far short of their viewer targets. And Netflix's Basic with Ads was the least popular tier in its first month, according to an Evercore ISI survey.
Morgan Stanley downgrades Chipotle to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley said it's concerned about "traffic headwinds." Morgan Stanley upgrades Domino's to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said Domino's is best positioned to handle a downturn. Morgan Stanley upgrades Church & Dwight to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said it sees "fundamental inflection ahead." Morgan Stanley downgrades AutoNation to underweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said it sees too many headwinds for shares of AutoNation right now. Morgan Stanley upgrades Kroger to equal weight from underweight Morgan Stanley said it sees more people eating at home.
Shares of Global Payments are set to surge as competition falls to the wayside, according to Morgan Stanley. Less competition good for shares The changing competitive landscape should favor incumbents such as Global Payments, according to Faucette. In addition, Global Payments is top of the list in the category due to its strategic outlook, including a focus on mergers and acquisitions. Merchant exposure Global Payments also has high merchant exposure, which might not be as much of a detriment in a recession as feared, according to the note. "With this type of backdrop, we would expect GPN Merchant revenue growth to remain solidly mid- to high single digits."
Sequentially, the biggest driver was higher interest rates, as well as a benefit from higher loan balances and lower mortgage-backed securities premium amortization. Key company metrics Net interest income: $13.43 billion, up 11% quarter-over-quarter and 45% year-over-year, outpacing analysts' forecasts of $12.99 billion. Net interest margin: 3.14%, compared with 2.11% during the same period a year prior, and above the consensus estimate of 3.02%. Within consumer lending, home lending was down 57% from last year, while credit card revenue increased 6% over last year. Noninterest expenses increased 4% year-over-year but were down 3% sequentially, with the annual increase resulting from higher operating costs and salary expenses.
Here are Friday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Bank of America upgrades Caterpillar to buy from neutral Bank of America said in it sees a multiyear growth story for the industrial giant. Guggenheim downgrades Tesla to sell from neutral Guggenheim said numbers are too optimistic ahead of Tesla 's earnings later this month. Deutsche Bank downgrades Logitech to hold from buy Deutsche said it's concerned about weakening PC demand trends. Bank of America reiterates Alphabet as buy Bank of America said it's standing by its buy rating on the stock, but that it sees further headcount reductions this year. Bank of America names Netflix a top pick Bank of America said Netflix is one of the best positioned media company's for the permanent shift to streaming.
Several big banks will kick off earnings season for the sector on Friday, yet it's the smaller, under-the-radar names that are most loved by Wall Street. For instance, only 54% of analysts covering Bank of America say the stock is a buy, while 58% of those covering JPMorgan rate it a buy, according to FactSet. To find bank stocks expected to outperform this year, CNBC Pro screened for the names most loved by analysts. They also have at least 8 analysts covering them. About 80% of the analysts covering the stock give it a buy rating, including Piper Sandler's John Barnidge.
It's been a confusing time for investors in bank stocks. Analysts are expecting a mixed bag of conflicting trends when four of the largest U.S. banks report fourth-quarter results Friday. "Our continued cautious view ... reflects ongoing macro risks and likely weakening bank fundamentals —including peaking net interest margins," Deutsche Bank analyst Matt O'Connor said in Jan. 5 note. The outlook Investors tend to discount fourth-quarter results in favor of what managements say about their outlooks for the coming year. "We expect above-consensus expense guides will likely weigh on bank stocks during 4Q22 earnings as managements communicate their 2023 budget plans," Graseck said.
Bank of America downgrades Coinbase to underperform from neutral Bank of America said it sees too many headwinds for the crypto exchange. Goldman Sachs downgrades Jefferies to neutral from buy Goldman said it sees a "backlog decline" for the investment bank company. Bank of America upgrades Toll Brothers and Pulte Group to buy from neutral Bank of America upgraded several homebuilders, citing compelling valuations. "We upgrade PulteGroup to Buy (from Neutral), Toll Brothers to Buy (from Neutral), and Lennar to Neutral (from Underperform). Bank of America upgrades Dow to neutral from underperform Bank of America said it's taking a more "offensive" approach to the stock.
Here are Monday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Bernstein reiterates Apple as market perform Bernstein said it's concerned about disappointing iPhone revenues for Apple. Guggenheim upgrades AutoZone to buy from neutral Guggenheim said it sees "operational improvement" for the auto parts retailer. KeyBanc upgrades Visa and Mastercard to overweight from sector weight KeyBanc upgraded several credit card stocks on Monday and said it sees "growth durability." "Bank stocks face another year of uncertainty with revenue forecasts challenged, provisions for credit on the rise, and capital return mostly sidelined ahead of a recession." Bank of America names Ferrari a top 2023 pick Bank of America said the luxury car company has pricing power.
Semiconductor stocks suffered a series of blows in 2022 as demand for consumer discretionary items fell off a cliff and supply chain disruptions continued. Betting on semiconductor favorites Despite ongoing volatility, some analysts and investors are still betting on once high-flying names in 2023, even though the challenges of 2022 continue. One of those is Advanced Micro Devices, a chip stock commonly connected with PC and server chips that fell hard in 2022. Texas Instruments held up better than the rest of the semiconductor market in 2022, shedding a little more than 12%. Bailey is mostly shying away from former, rapid growth names, with small bets on ASML and Marvell for clients looking for possible higher growth.
Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Monday: UBS downgrades Microsoft to neutral from buy UBS said in its downgrade of the stock that it's concerned about Microsoft Office risks. Wells Fargo downgrades Target to equal weight from overweight Wells said in its downgrade of the stock that it sees too much 2023 uncertainty. " UBS downgrades JB Hunt to neutral from buy UBS said in its downgrade of the shipping company that it sees volume and pricing risk. UBS downgrades Honeywell to sell from buy UBS said in its downgrade of the stock that the multiple is "inflated." UBS reiterates Amazon as buy UBS lowered its price target on the e-commerce giant to $125 per share from $165 but says it's standing by the stock.
Some Wall Street analysts see a buying opportunity in Tesla in 2023 — though others think the car maker's recent deliveries miss spells trouble for the electric vehicle maker. Kallo's $252 price target implies the stock can more than double from Friday's closing price of $123.18. The anayst reiterated a buy rating on Tesla, and maintained a $275 price target. Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi also had an underperform rating on the stock, saying he expects that consensus estimates are too high, and that demand pressures will continue for Tesla. His $150 price target represents roughly 22% upside for shares of Tesla.
This year, markets have been ruled by hot inflation, with investors flocking to stocks that benefit from rising prices. "The surge in inflation has been a dominant—if not the dominant—financial market theme of 2022," said Wells Fargo in a note, noting that global consumer inflation accelerated to multi-decade highs. "Globally, we see inflation peaking in 4Q this year, with disinflation driving the narrative next year," said Morgan Stanley in its 2023 Global Economics Outlook report. Wells Fargo expects global consumer price index inflation to "slow meaningfully" to 5.2% in 2023 from a projected 7.2% this year. But Europe, including the U.K., could be the exception — the bank expects that the effects of rapid inflation and rising rates there will "linger for some time."
Here are Wednesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Citi reiterates Apple as buy Citi said it sees several reasons that Apple stock is likely trade higher. Jefferies names McDonald's a top 2023 pick Jefferies said the fast food giant is a top defensive idea for 2023. Jefferies downgrades Starbucks to hold from buy Jefferies said it sees a more "balanced" risk/reward outlook for the stock. Evercore ISI reiterates Alphabet as outperform Evercore lowered its estimates on the stock but said it's still "highly attractive" for long-term investors. UBS reiterates Nike as buy UBS said Nike's earnings growth potential is "underestimated" after the company's earnings report on Tuesday.
The difficult outlook for software stocks should continue into 2023, but companies offering growth at a reasonable price stand to gain and come out on top, according to Morgan Stanley. Software stocks suffered a dismal 2022 as rising interest rates brought down stocks with sky high price-to-earnings ratios. Despite ServiceNow's decline of more than 39% this year, Morgan Stanley's $612 price target implies more than 55% upside from Friday's close. Along with its top picks, Morgan Stanley named a host of stocks poised to benefit in any recovery. Morgan Stanley also included Toast and Datadog as stocks to build positions in as interest rates subside and growth improves.
With the Federal Reserve out of the way, and major economic news light (only the PCE on this Friday), traders are bracing for a wave of earnings reductions from the analysts community ahead of fourth quarter earnings. "Fed induced recession fears are to blame for December's pullback," Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a note to clients. Analyst earnings expectations for the fourth quarter have been in negative territory for several weeks, and now expectations for the first quarter of 2023 are also on the verge of going negative. It's very early, but early reporters have not been disastrous. So, early February 2023 is when the worst of the cuts may occur," wrote Raich.
JPMorgan is still bullish on shares of Amazon but sees it rising less than previously expected in 2023. The firm slashed its 12-month price target to $130 from $145 in a Dec. 16 note. The new price target implies more than 46% upside to where shares currently trade. Lower estimates JPMorgan now sees fourth quarter net sales of $143.4 billion and operating income of $2.0 billion, a 1.4% margin. The firm's total 2023 revenue estimate is down about 2% to $563 billion, including 17% AWS revenue growth on the year.
Delivery volumes are gaining speed, and that could be a good thing for shares of Nio , Deutsche Bank said Thursday. Analyst Edison Yu opened a catalyst buy call on the electric vehicle stock, expecting an uptick in monthly sales for December. "Considering cumulative deliveries were 274,000 exiting Nov, this suggests production is ramping up nicely and 4Q guidance is very much achievable (43,000-48,000 units)." At its annual "Nio Day" later this month, the company should also reveal two new vehicle models, which Yu expects consumers to like. Despite a 62% slump this year, Nio shares could rally about 74% from Wednesday's close given the bank's $21 price target suggest.
Guggenheim names Nike a top 2023 pick Guggenheim said Nike's brand remains "healthy and strong." Bank of America names Amazon a top 2023 pick Bank of America said Amazon is a "share gainer" that will continue in 2023. " Morgan Stanley upgrades Verizon to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said Verizon shares are "historically" attractive. Morgan Stanley downgrades AT & T to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley said it sees a more balanced risk/reward. Morgan Stanley downgrades Lockheed Martin to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley said it sees more "limited upside" for shares of the defense company. "
Morgan Stanley names Exxon Mobil a top 2023 pick Morgan Stanley said Exxon Mobil is one of the best-positioned stocks heading into 2023. Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley said concerns about App Store competition are overdone. Bank of America downgrades Best Buy to underperform from neutral Bank of America said the environment is too challenging right now for Best Buy. Bank of America reiterates Nike as neutral Bank of America said it's cautious going into Nike earnings next week. Bank of America reiterates Alphabet as buy Bank of America said it's sticking with its buy rating on Alphabet but that investors need to hear more about the Google parent's cost-cutting initiatives.
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