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DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Wednesday that he now sees no more than one interest rate cut this year as the Federal Reserve keeps policy tight to fight stubborn inflation. "The inflation rate clearly is the one that is lacking progress as [Jerome Powell] put it, so I'm going to lean on one rate cut," Gundlach said on CNBC's " Closing Bell." "Higher for longer … seems like the mantra continues, but without a rate hike. Treasury yields dropped to their session lows and stocks shot to session highs as Powell said the next policy move will not be a rate increase. "I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Jerome Powell, Gundlach, Powell Organizations: DoubleLine, Federal Reserve, Treasury
Investors can lock in some juicy real yields with Treasury inflation-protected securities, according to UBS. "The result has been rising real yields further out the curve, offering the opportunity to lock in attractive real yields ahead of expected falling nominal yields later this year," she added. Treasury yields are expected to decline when the Federal Reserve starts reducing the fed funds rate. Nominal yields have been rising as the market reassesses those interest rate expectations. "Our expectation of declining nominal yields in the second half of the year will be a tailwind to performance," she said.
Persons: Leslie Falconio Organizations: Treasury, UBS, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department Locations: UBS Americas
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was less than one basis point higher to 4.6862%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 5.0373% after dipping by around one basis point, holding above the 5% mark it crossed Tuesday. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday, as investors awaited economic data and the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and monetary policy guidance. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, and investors are hoping that officials will provide fresh signals about the potential path ahead for interest rates. Uncertainty has grown in recent weeks about the possibility, number and timing of interest rate cuts this year.
Organizations: Treasury, . U.S, Federal, Fed, Traders Locations: .
Cash App, introduced in 2013, allows users to send and receive money instantaneously among themselves and to buy stocks and Bitcoin. As of December, Cash App had 56 million active transacting accounts and $248 billion in inflows during the previous four quarters, the company said. (Merchants are considered customers at Square, while users are considered customers at Cash App.) Cash App is not a bank, but it uses external banking partners to conduct various services. On March 29, Sutton Bank settled a consent order with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that echoed the whistleblowers' allegations.
Persons: Jack Dorsey, Block, Venezuela —, Edward Siedle, Prosecutors, Cash, OFAC, Lawrence Summers, Sharon Rothstein, Summers, Rothstein, Lord Paul Deighton, Goldman Sachs, Deighton, Dorsey, Banks, Sutton, James Booker Organizations: Twitter, Southern, of, NBC, NBC News, Securities and Exchange Commission, Block, Foreign Assets Control, U.S . Treasury, Cash, OFAC, Goldman, Financial Market, Bank of Lithuania, Payments Lithuania UAB, PayPal, Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, Sutton Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, FDIC Locations: of New York, Cuba, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Ohio, Sutton
Treasury yields rise ahead of Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by around two basis points to 4.6343%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9809% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Tuesday as investors looked to economic data for hints about the state of the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting. Investors awaited economic data and looked to the Federal Reserve's meeting, which is due to begin Tuesday and conclude Wednesday with a fresh interest rate decision and press conference. Last week, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, came in slightly above expectations for March.
Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Headline
The S & P 500 is down by more than 3% this month, though it has still registered a more than 6% advance for the year. But many investors worry stocks have further to go before finding a durable bottom. They say stocks look overvalued even after the recent pullback, and they cite troubling headwinds for equities. 'Sell in May and go away' May has a reputation as a historically weak month for stocks. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick noted that stocks have actually been higher in May during the last nine out of 10 years.
Persons: Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Jeff Hirsch, he's, It's, Hirsch, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, we've Organizations: Investors, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Treasury Bond ETF
Treasury yields fall as investors look to Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than one basis point lower to 4.9830%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve policy meeting and economic data scheduled for this week. Investors awaited the Federal Reserve's meeting, which is set to begin Tuesday and conclude with an interest rate decision and press conference about policymakers' discussions on Wednesday. While markets are widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged, investors will be closely watching out for policy guidance from the central bank. This comes as recent economy data has suggested resilience from the economy and persistent inflationary pressures.
Persons: Dow Jones, payrolls Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors
Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Including food and energy, the all-items PCE price gauge increased 2.7%, compared to the 2.6% estimate. The Fed targets 2% inflation, a level that core PCE has been above for the past three years. Services prices increased 0.4% on the month while goods were up 0.1%, reflecting a swing back in consumer prices as goods inflation dominated since the early days of the Covid pandemic.
Persons: Dow Jones, George Mateyo Organizations: Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow, Treasury, Key Wealth, Fed, Labor Department
Treasury yields ease slightly ahead of key inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the 10-year Treasury was down by over three basis points to 4.6754%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last more than one basis point lower at 4.9850%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday as investors digested Thursday's gross domestic product report and looked ahead to the release of key inflation figures. The yields on the 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury had soared to their highest levels since November on Thursday, following the release of a weaker-than-expected U.S. gross domestic product reading. Fresh inflation insights are expected Friday in form of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's favored inflation gauge.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, PCE
A pump jack at an oil lot connected to the Petroleos del Peru SA Talara refinery in Piura, Peru, on Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Thursday that U.S. economic growth was likely stronger than suggested by weaker-than-expected quarterly data. Data showed that economic growth slowed in the first quarter, and prior to Yellen's comments, tremors from an acceleration in inflation had weighed on oil prices as investors calculated that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before September. Personal consumption expenditures inflation data for March will be released on Friday, closely tracked by the Fed for its 2% target. Elsewhere, supply concerns as geopolitical tensions continue in the Middle East also buoyed prices early in the session.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Israel Organizations: del, del Peru SA Talara, U.S . Treasury, Brent, U.S . West Texas, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: del Peru, Piura, Peru, U.S, Gazan
Bitcoin is set for more price gains later this year, even after a recent retreat in prices, according to Standard Chartered's top crypto analyst. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange research, West, and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in a research note this week that he sees bitcoin rising to $150,000 per coin, and ether hitting $8,000 by the end of 2024 — doubling down on a bullish prediction from the bank earlier this year. Bitcoin temporarily sank below $60,000 last week as traders reacted to news of an escalating military conflict between Iran and Israel. Also, large long liquidations over the past couple of weeks mean that market positioning is a lot cleaner," Kendrick said. "As a result, with Middle East tensions easing I think it is time to re-engage in medium-term longs."
Persons: Geoffrey Kendrick, Kendrick, Bitcoin, bitcoin, That's Organizations: Standard Chartered, BTC, ETH, Securities and Exchange Commission, Treasury, HK Locations: Israel, Iran, United States, U.S
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 9, 2024. Stock futures fell sharply Thursday after the latest U.S. economic data showed a sharp slowdown in growth and pointed to persistent inflation. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 419 points or 1.1%. Along with the downbeat growth rate for the quarter, the report showed consumer prices increased at a 3.4% pace, well above the previous quarter's 1.8% advance. Following the GDP print, traders moved down expectations for an easing of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Persons: Dow Jones, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Dow, Federal Reserve, Federal, Traders
Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter and below the 3% Wall Street estimate. Net exports subtracted 0.86 percentage point from the growth rate while consumer spending contributed 1.68 percentage points. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices rose at a 3.7% rate, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Income adjusted for taxes and inflation rose 1.1% for the period, down from 2%. Services spending increased 4%, its highest quarterly level since Q3 of 2021.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Gross, department's, Analysis, Commerce Department, Federal, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, LPL, Labor Department
The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9248% after dipping by just over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Thursday as investors looked ahead to key economic data points that could inform the path ahead for interest rates. Investors awaited gross domestic product and inflation insights due Thursday and Friday, respectively. The data could inform how Federal Reserve policymakers think about monetary policy and what decisions they come to regarding the outlook for interest rates. Markets are widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged then, with traders last pricing in the first rate cut for September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, PCE
Treasury yields dip: In addition to earnings, the other part of the market's gauntlet this week is a trio of huge Treasury auctions. The PMI data was softer than expected, confirming signs of the economic "brown shoots" that Jim Cramer has recently been flagging. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, P Global, PMI, Federal, Amazon, Foods, Apple, Developers, Tesla, Enphase, Texas, Boeing, Boston Scientific, Otis Worldwide, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Enphase Energy, Humana
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by less than one basis point to 4.6189%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last at 4.9805% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Tuesday as investors awaited fresh economic data that could provide insights into the state of the economy. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting a 1.2% rise for the month after the figure had declined 0.3% in February. Investors will be assessing this week's data for clues about whether the economy is continuing to prove resilient and whether inflationary pressures remain sticky.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Federal
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors looked to economic data in the week ahead that could provide fresh hints about the state of the economy and outlook for interest rates. Investors awaited fresh economic data as uncertainty about the outlook for the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy persisted. Several key data points are slated for the week, including the personal consumption expenditures price index for March, which is due Friday. The PCE is the Fed's favored inflation gauge and could inform policymakers' thinking about what could lie ahead for interest rate cuts ahead of the next Fed policy meeting on April 30-May 1. Durable goods orders and a reading of the gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2024 are among the other key data points due throughout the week.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Federal Reserve, PCE, Fed Locations: U.S
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg via Getty ImagesInvestors have been monitoring for potential intervention in the Japanese yen, but recent comments have triggered discussion about "coordinated intervention" with South Korea. The currency has struggled, slipping past 150, since the Bank of Japan raised rates in March. Following that volatility, the U.S. last week acknowledged Japan and South Korea's "serious concerns" over the recent sharp depreciation in their currencies. The comments spurred chatter about possible coordinated currency intervention. Brady said South Korea and Japan could amplify their individual messages to the market by coordinating policy, which might also enhance the short-term impact compared to unilateral action.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho, James Brady, Brady Organizations: Korean, Woori, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S ., Bank of, South Korean, greenback, Authorities, Treasury, Bank of Japan Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Bank of Japan, U.S, Japan, South, Tokyo, Bank of Korea
Gold retreats as Middle East tensions ebb
  + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Gold prices dipped on Monday, as easing fears of a wider Middle East conflict lowered bullion's safe-haven appeal, while market participants awaited a key U.S. inflation reading due later this week for interest rate cues. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,369.97 per ounce, as of 0451 GMT. Asian stocks recovered some losses and bond yields rose as fears of a wider Middle East conflict ebbed, with investors gravitating back towards riskier assets. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 2.3% to $27.99 per ounce, spot platinum rose 0.3% to $934.03, and palladium fell 0.3% to $1,023.17.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Wong, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Aurum, Asia Pacific, Treasury, Chicago Federal Locations: Munich, U.S, Tehran, Iran, OANDA, Israel, Hamas
Currencies calm but cautious after a weary week
  + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. Eyes are on the yen this week, with the Bank of Japan's, or BOJ, Friday policy review the notable item on the economic calendar. The yen has been one of the biggest losers against the dollar this year, with losses mounting to 9%. The ECB's Robert Holzmann, however, said the ECB probably will not cut rates this year as much as planned if the Fed does not move. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden alluded last week to Britain's inflation slowing as expected.
Persons: Chris Weston, Weston, Kazuo Ueda, BoE, ECB policymaker Madis Muller, Christine Lagarde, Robert Holzmann, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Sterling, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S ., Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Monetary Fund, Bank, Washington , Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB policymaker, ECB, Treasury Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, East, Tehran, Iran, Washington, United States, Japan, South Korea, Washington ,, U.S
The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9622% after falling by more than two basis points. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Friday as investors considered the latest economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and considered what this could mean for monetary policy. Investors digested the latest economic data and remarks from policymakers as they considered the outlook for interest rates. Fed officials have in recent days and weeks indicated that interest rates may remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated. Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said rate cuts may not come until the end of the year, and that he was "comfortable being patient," while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested rate cuts may not begin until 2025.
Persons: John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis, Investors, NBC News Locations: Philadelphia, Israel
Christian Lindner (FDP), Federal Minister of Finance, is on his way to a bilateral meeting with US Treasury Secretary Yellen at the headquarters of the World Bank. Bernd von Jutrczenka | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesGerman carmakers do not have to fear competition from China and are still considered the best in the world, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner told CNBC. "German car manufacturers are world leading, they do not have to fear Chinese competition," Lindner said. Competition in the electric vehicle, or EV, market in China and Europe, as well as the U.S., has been heating up in recent months. This came ahead of Scholz's visit to China earlier this month, during which he warned against unfair competitive and trade practices.
Persons: Christian Lindner, Yellen, Bernd von Jutrczenka, CNBC's Karen Tso, Lindner, China's BYD, Tesla, Janet Yellen, Ursula von der, Wang Wentao, Olaf Scholz Organizations: Federal, of Finance, US, World Bank, Getty, German, CNBC, Washington , D.C, European Union . U.S, Treasury, European Commission, European Union, Commerce, EV, Reuters Locations: China, Washington ,, Europe, U.S, EVs, EU
I want to protect further downside in the broader U.S. equity market despite the fact that S & P 500 has had an acute drop of more than 5% off its recent 2024 highs. I do believe that we are still in a bull market, but the headwinds are strong in the current market conditions. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Lastly, markets are contending with corporate earnings season. Per my friends at Factset, the S & P 500's valuation on a forward 12-month P/E ratio is 20.6. DISCLOSURES: (Long this spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .
Persons: Raphael Bostic Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Big Tech, Trust Locations: Israel, Iran, Factset
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over one basis point to 4.5690%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9198% after dipping by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Thursday as investors looked to fresh economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials as they weighed the outlook for interest rates. Investors awaited fresh comments from Federal Reserve policymakers as uncertainty around when and how often interest rates will be cut this year persisted. A series of further Fed officials are due to make remarks on Thursday and Friday, which investors will be scanning for fresh hints about the path ahead for monetary policy.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed
The unpredictability has led some analysts to reiterate their recommendation to buy dividend stocks. According to Morgan Stanley, the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan High Dividend Index outperformed the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index in the first quarter of the year, albeit by only 0.58%. The cautious investors' sentiment also drives allocation toward Quality Dividend stocks," the investment bank's analysts wrote in an Apr. These translate into a higher UST bond yields and particularly favoring dividend stocks to outperform." The latter has a forward dividend yield of 8%, according to Morgan Stanley, comfortably higher than the average of 5.1% on the screen.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MSCI Asia, Asia, UST, U.S . Treasury, China Overseas Property Holdings, China Medical System Holdings, Bank of China Locations: Japan, Asia, Pacific, China, Taiwan
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