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☆ Wall Street ends mixed with inflation data, earnings on tap
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The bellwether S&P 500 ended the session nominally higher. Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, six ended the session higher, led by industrials (.SPLRCI). "When the Fed repeats time after time what their priorities are and what they’re going to do, they’re going to do it." As of Friday, analysts expected aggregate S&P 500 earnings down 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth expected at the beginning of the quarter, according to Refinitiv. The S&P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 155 new lows.

☆ Wall St fluctuates as investors weigh jobs report, earnings on tap
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"There’s clearly a disconnect between what the Fed is telling us they’re going to do and what the market believes the Fed is going to do," Pursche added. "When the Fed repeats time after time what their priorities are and what they’re going to do, they’re going to do it." As of Friday, analysts now expect aggregate S&P 500 earnings down 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth expected at the beginning of the quarter, according to Refinitiv. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) suffered the largest percentage losses. The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 41 new highs and 131 new lows.

☆ If you're worried about market volatility, here's how this advisor says you should handle the stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Andrew Osterland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Behavioral finance tells us we are inherently bad investors, prone to making decisions based on emotions rather than evidence and self-interest. "We may think we're making rational decisions, but we're usually not," added certified financial planner Maurer, who is also a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council. By the time that most people react to events in the market, the market has already priced in the risk. "When it feels like the market is at a top, it's not unnatural to think about changing your investment strategy. "They are more likely to look through stock market volatility and do a better job investing for their future."

☆ 'Cracks in the foundation': 3 leading Wall Street strategists reveal the overlooked reason why stocks are on shaky ground right now — and how to invest with a downturn looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Instead, they've been propelled by large caps and growth stocks, specifically tech. If not for a small number of mega-cap growth stocks, the S&P 500 wouldn't be staying afloat. Last year investors learned the hard way that narrow markets are dangerous, as tech stocks tumbled during the market selloff. "Breadth has been exceptionally weak as large-cap growth stocks hold up the major averages," Wilson wrote in a late March note. Outside of tech, Lebovitz highlighted traditional defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities.

☆ Dow jumps 400 points to end tumultuous first quarter as markets move on from bank crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks jumped on Friday, ending the first quarter on a positive note. A key price gauge showed continued signs that inflation is cooling off. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 6% and 17%, respectively, since the start of the year. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index — the Fed's preferred inflation measure — rose 0.3% in February from the prior month, lower than the expected 0.4%. Then the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and fears of a recession on the horizon whipsawed markets again.

[1/3] The logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse is seen in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File PhotoWASHINGTON/FRANKFURT, March 26 (Reuters) - Stress in the banking sector is being closely monitored for its potential to trigger a credit crunch, a U.S. Federal Reserve policymaker said on Sunday, as a European Central Bank official also flagged a possible tightening in lending. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. Meanwhile in Europe, the ECB believes that recent banking sector turmoil may result in lower growth and inflation rates, its vice president Luis de Guindos said. Turbulence among banking stocks on both sides of the Atlantic continued into the end of the week, despite efforts by politicians, central banks and regulators to dispel concerns.

WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) - Recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the U.S. closer to recession, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said Sunday in comments to CBS show Face the Nation. "It definitely brings us closer," Kashkari said. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. "At the same time," he continued, "we've seen that capital markets have largely been closed for the past two weeks. The Fed has rolled out an emergency lending program meant to keep other regional lenders from trouble should deposit withdrawals increase.

☆ Take Five: And let there be calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - At the incredible end to the first quarter for financial markets, rattled by bank turmoil, some stability will be much hoped for in coming days. SNB chief Thomas Jordan reckons the next two weeks will be vital to securing UBS's Credit Suisse takeover. Market cap of US regional banks included in the S&P 500 regional bank index3/ DID YOU SAY AT1? Potential legal action is also possible after Swiss authorities ruled that holders of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds would get nothing in the deal. And U.S. and European banks turmoil show how quickly a crisis can surface, giving Ueda even more reason for caution.

☆ Gold listless as investors strap in for Fed rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold bullion bars are pictured after being inspected and polished at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. Gold prices traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as some investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy outlook. Spot gold was flat at $1,939.59 per ounce, as of 0318 GMT, after dropping 2% on Tuesday. Investor attention is now on the Fed's decision scheduled at 1800 GMT, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "If we do get higher dots plot, then that represents a still-hawkish Fed that is determined to fight inflation ... a potential hawkish repricing could undermine gold prices."

☆ Stocks, bond yields fall as Fed, with eye on inflation, signals pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Koh Gui Qing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Markets initially interpreted the omission as a sign that rates might be peaking, and drove Treasury yields to session lows after the Fed's statement was released. The two-year yield , which falls with traders' expectations of a less hawkish Fed, fell to 3.9597% from Tuesday's close of 4.177%. Data also showed British inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February, lifting expectations for a quarter point rate hike at Thursday's Bank of England meeting, boosting sterling. German two-year yields overnight recorded the biggest daily jump since 2008 as markets went back to pricing in more ECB hikes. The dollar index fell on the Fed's dovish note, shedding 0.62%, and a softer dollar lifted the yen to 131.39 .

☆ Gold listless as investors strap in for Fed rate verdict
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies All eyes on Fed statement at 1800 GMTFed seen hiking rates by 25 bpsHawkish Fed, rates repricing could undermine gold prices - analystMarch 22 (Reuters) - Gold prices traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as some investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy outlook. Spot gold was flat at $1,939.59 per ounce, as of 0318 GMT, after dropping 2% on Tuesday. Investor attention is now on the Fed's decision scheduled at 1800 GMT, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "Key focus is on how the Fed communicates its forward guidance, in particular 'the higher for longer' rhetoric and dots plots," OCBC's Wong said. "If we do get higher dots plot, then that represents a still-hawkish Fed that is determined to fight inflation ... a potential hawkish repricing could undermine gold prices."

☆ Global banking turbulence prompts Wall Street banks to trim hawkish Fed bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Susan Mathew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Peer Citigroup sees a smaller 25 bps hike, down from a 50 bps hike forecast earlier in the month. The brokerage started with a 50 bps hike and then changed to a pause following the collapse of SVB Financial. It now sees a 25 basis points hike. Nomura expects a 25 bps rate cut at the end of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday. Major investment banks now expect the ECB to deliver a 25 bps hike in May.

☆ Everything you need to know to catch up on Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and the trouble rattling the financial world
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse have stolen most of the headlines, but between others like First Republic Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank, there's plenty to digest. People walk by the New York headquarters of Credit Suisse on March 15, 2023 in New York City. The scandal-hit lender has been feeling the pain since Silicon Valley Bank sparked the bank crisis. Venture capitalists have never been more divided, with accusations flying over who killed their beloved Silicon Valley Bank. Bank of America strategists laid out 23 names that still offer upside despite the drag of SVB and Credit Suisse.

U.S.-listed shares of Credit Suisse slid 24.3% to hit a record low, after the Swiss bank's largest investor said it could not provide more financial assistance to the lender. Big U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) fell between 5% and 1%. The KBW regional banking index (.KRX) slid 3.8% while the S&P 500 banking index (.SPXBK) dropped 4.2%%. "Given all the turmoil with Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, expectations have dramatically risen come that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, or maybe raise them (by) 25 basis points." Shares of Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW.N) fell 1.9%, a day after its chief executive said the firm has enough liquidity.

☆ The Silicon Valley Bank debacle suddenly changed the outlook for interest rates in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Ethan Dodd | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Investors expected the Fed to raise rates March 21-22. Silicon Valley Bank crashed, so now investors are betting the Fed will slow its roll. In a chaotic series of events last week, regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Friday — and just two days later, they announced they would be bailing out SVB depositors. The pace and duration of those interest rate hikes is at the top of mind for markets and investors. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs thinks the Fed won't raise rates at all as more banks are already expected to fail.

☆ How to position your portfolio following the Silicon Valley Bank fiasco — and why markets are wrongly anticipating a Fed pivot — according to a researcher whose clients include Wall Street's top money
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were shut by regulators in recent days. Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank over the last few days, some market participants are expecting the Federal Reserve to back off from its hawkish stance. Goldman Sachs' Chief US Economist Jan Hatzius said on Sunday night that he expects the Fed not to hike rates at its next meeting before resuming them later in the spring. The Fed's next moves are relevant to recent events because higher interest rates contributed to the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank. For example, Jeffrey Gundlach, the CEO of DoubleLine Capital, told CNBC on Monday that the central bank will hike rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting.

☆ As hawkish Fed pricing goes away, bullish dollar calls fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The moves come as investors rush for safe havens and adjust for a less aggressive Fed in the wake of the bank failures. “The market is basically saying that the Fed is done here,” said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. Some banks, including Goldman Sachs and NatWest Markets, have also said they no longer expect the Fed to raise rates this month. Traders are also pricing for the Fed to cut rates this year, with the fed funds rate expected to fall to 3.80% in December, from 4.57% now. “From a dollar perspective, that’s very important because the resetting of Fed expectations ever higher was a big part of the dollar rally we had seen before these moves,” he added.

☆ Take Five: A macro-packed punch for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/ THE PRICE IS RIGHTU.S. inflation data have been pivot points for markets and Tuesday's report will likely be consequential as investors gauge whether the Federal Reserve will return to the jumbo-sized rate hikes that shook markets last year. The European Central Bank has raised rates by 3 percentage points since July to 2.5% and looks set for another half-point increase on Thursday. Austria's central bank chief Robert Holzmann wants half-point rises at each of the next four meetings. Riskier, more fragile emerging markets, especially those with twin deficits, could feel the heaviest punch if the Fed goes all the way to 6%. Emerging markets countries hiking (+) or cutting (-) their policy ratesCompiled by Amanda Cooper; Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Kripa Jayaram and Vincent Flasseur; Edited by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The implosion of Silicon Valley's largest bank has investors worried worse is to come: 'There might be some kind of crack in the financial system'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hasan Chowdhury | James Dean | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The implosion of the California lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate has investors worried. Christopher Whalen, the chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, a financial consultancy, said Silicon Valley Bank was "just the tip of the iceberg." He added that the situation at Silicon Valley Bank was "a reminder that many institutions are sitting on large unrealized losses" on bond holdings. Mould said the "fire sale" of Silicon Valley Bank's bond portfolio raised broader concerns. Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker on Thursday implored customers to "stay calm" in an apparent bid to stave off further mass withdrawals and avert collapse.

☆ Investors turn more bearish on Asian FX amid return of King Dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Harshita Swaminathan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Bearish bets intensified on nearly all Asian currencies, with short bets on the South Korean won and the Chinese yuan reaching their highest since November, according to a fortnightly poll of 12 analysts. Short bets on the won were the highest among Asian currencies for the second week in a row. However, the Indian rupee , already the best performing currency in Asia so far this year, bucked the bearish trend as investors dialled back their short bets. Short bets on the ringgit rose slightly. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3.

Higher rates benefit the dollar by improving its yield and as traders look for safety while global stockmarkets drop. The dollar hit a two-month high against the euro of $1.0524 , extending Tuesday's 1.2% jump. The Australian dollar has weakened for a similar reason as the Reserve Bank of Australia has softened its tone. Having dropped over 2% on Tuesday, the Australian dollar weakened a bit more to hit a four-month low of $0.6568 on Wednesday. China's yuan finished the domestic session at 6.9706 per dollar, the weakest such close since Dec. 29, 2022.

☆ Here's why the 2-year note yield above 5% doesn't shake our conviction in stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But the Club's long-term outlook isn't swayed by this current bond market dynamic. Remember, bond yields moved in the opposite direction to bond prices. It was not, however, a great time to run away from stocks, Jim emphasized Wednesday. (There was of course the stock market crash in October 1987, which came to be known as Black Monday. (See here for a full list of the stocks Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.)

☆ Oil dips on China outlook while investors await Fed clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures were trading down 60 cents, or 0.7%, at $85.23 a barrel by 1520 GMT. "Crude remains in a tug-of-war between optimism over Chinese reopening and nervousness over a hawkish Fed hurting the U.S. economy," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. China's closely watched growth outlook, announced on Sunday, was lower than last year's 5.5% target for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Policy sources had told Reuters the target could be set as high as 6% for 2023. At the same time, oil prices are likely to be affected by increases to interest rates across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of rising inflation.

☆ Apple's returns are based on macro factors, not fundamentals, says Trivariate's Adam Parker
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailApple's returns are based on macro factors, not fundamentals, says Trivariate's Adam ParkerTrivariate's Adam Parker joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the hawkish Fed policy, potential upsides in energy stocks and investments in industrials versus technology.

☆ Take Five: A manic March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Another dose of hot job growth after January's payrolls increase of 517,000 trounced estimates could stoke fears of more hawkish Fed action. Powell has said the January jobs report showed why the battle against inflation will "take quite a bit of time". Powell's comments and the jobs data could help settle what the Fed does later this month. The RBA hinted at further tightening at its meeting last month, but data since then has pointed the other way. After a red-hot January rally, bonds and equities retreated in February as strong data sparked concerns about more rate hikes.

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