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☆ Asia-Pacific shares poised to drop as investors continue to digest China's reopening news
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Emerging market value stocks are likely to return a real 9% per annum over the next seven years, while emerging market stocks as a whole are forecast to return 5.2% a year. International small-cap stocks are projected to return a real 4.5% while international large-cap stocks come in at 2.4% a year, after inflation. The U.S. isn't forecast to keep up, with U.S. small caps projected to shrink 1.4% each year after inflation, and U.S. large caps estimated to fall an average 1.8% annually over seven years. International bonds hedged against currency exposure are forecast to lose 1.8% a year and U.S. bonds to return -0.3%. At the start of 2022, GMO pegged emerging market value stocks to return +5% annually over seven years, emerging market stocks +2.2%, international small caps -1.2%, international large caps -2.5%, U.S. small caps -6.5% and U.S. large caps -7.3%.

October growth slowed compared with September's 0.2% gain, which was an upward revision from a previously reported 0.1% increase, Statistics Canada said. "The real question will be how things shake out during the first half of next year, when aggressive Bank of Canada rate hikes start to more fully work their way through the system," Kavcic said. Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November, but was slightly higher than had been expected because of broad-based price pressures, according to data from earlier this week, leaving the door open for another rate increase in January. The bank has said it will be more data-dependent in setting the policy rate. November's preliminary estimate showing a 0.1% monthly increase in GDP was driven by gains in utilities and wholesale trade, Statscan said.

☆ BoC to keep up pace with 50 basis point December rate hike -economists
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fourteen said the BoC would dial down its pace to 25 basis points. Of the large Canadian banks, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank expected a 50 basis point move with no further hikes afterward. RBC forecasts a 25 basis point hike and then a pause, while BMO expects 50 and then another 25 in early 2023. The Fed, by contrast, is expected to raise its federal funds rate to a minimum of 4.75%-5.00% early next year, with the risks around forecasts skewed toward a higher rate. "The latest BoC research on household vulnerability and flexible mortgage rates support the idea that the BoC terminal rate will end at least 50 basis points below the U.S. Federal Reserve," said Sebastien Lavoie, economist at Laurentian Bank.

☆ 100 years of stock-market history show the sell-off is likely only half done, says a 30-year market vet who called the downturn. Here are 3 criteria to watch to know when the worst is over.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks stock-market investors are still too optimistic that a bear market bottom is coming sometime in the immediate-to-near future. When bear markets occur when valuations are relatively high, the bear markets tend to drag on longer. The median bear market length during periods of high valuation among those listed above is 17 months, Wolfenbarger said, compared to 13 months when valuations are attractive. Given that the current market sell-off began amid some of the highest valuations in history, Wolfenbarger said he expects the bear market to last 17 months or longer. Wolfenbarger's views in contextIn June, Societe Generale conducted a similar analysis to Wolfenbarger's and looked at bear markets over the last 150 years.

☆ Here's how the Fed's rate hike can move markets and whether to expect a central bank pivot
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That bank thinks the Fed is going to skirt any talk of a pivot, and opt for continued rate hikes albeit at a slower pace. Goldman Sachs listed three reasons the Fed will carry on with rate hikes:US inflation will remain "sticky" so a pivot won't be justified. Keeping rate hikes going until March 2023 will set up the central bank for a future pivot. US stock futures rise early Wednesday, as eyes turn toward the Fed's rate hike decision later today. Here's what you want to know about the 1920 rule that's still moving markets more than a century later.

☆ Inflation is in its final stages and could soon roll over, causing bond yields to peak and stocks to stabilize, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The bank pointed to four stages of inflation, with prices surging in commodities, then goods, then services, then wages. Services prices and wages could soon fall, easing pressure on the central bank to hike rates and allowing stocks to stabilize. Combined with slowing growth, it could bring less pressure on the central bank to keep hiking rates, causing bond yields to peak and bring some relief to stocks. "As economic activity has weakened closer to contraction territory, bond yields are likely to be capped by the subdued levels of growth from here. If the view of bond yields peaking gains traction, this would go a long way in helping the equity market stabilize," analysts said.

☆ Jerome Powell's favorite bond-market gauge is on the verge of inverting, a sign of impending recession. That could mean a Fed pivot within months.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

If that happens, it would signal an impending recession and a Fed pivot by the spring of 2024. The Fed chair touted the predictive power of the short end of the yield curve earlier this year. An inverted yield curve is one where interest rates for short-term fixed-income securities are higher than those for longer-term ones. "That's really what has 100% of the explanatory power of the yield curve. The Fed is expected to announce yet another mega-hike of 75 basis points at the end of its October meeting Thursday, which could invert Powell's favorite yield curve.

☆ Jeremy Grantham's firm says it's time to buy into small cap stocks. Here are the themes and companies GMO is most bullish on.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jeremy Grantham's firm GMO just launched a fund targeting "quality" small-cap stocks. Growing fears about a recession weren't enough to stop small cap stocks from having a great month in October. But small caps seem to have some momentum behind them despite rising interest rates and signs of a slowing economy. They say that quality small caps have outperformed small caps in general by 1.8% a year since 1976, and they've beaten a mix of small-, medium-, and large-caps by 2.8% a year in that time. That's a challenge for any investor, but they say it's harder with smaller companies because their competitive edges fade faster.

☆ Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel expects stocks to soar 30% in 2 years - and house prices to tumble 15% from their peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jeremy Siegel expects US stocks to surge by 20% to 30% over the next two years. The Wharton professor sees interest rates dragging house prices down by 10% to 15% from their peak. Siegel warned the Fed risks causing a recession if it continues to aggressively hike rates. "I'm flabbergasted," Siegel said about the Fed scrambling to cool inflation based on lagging indicators such as rent increases. "What the market is so scared about is there seems to be no limit to their talk: 'Hike, hike, hike, hike, hike," he said.

☆ Lloyd Blankfein reminds investors that plenty could go right to send the stock market higher despite overwhelmingly negative sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

This year's stock market decline has flipped sentiment, turning most investors overly negative. But former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein reminded investors that any good news could send stocks higher. But according to Blankfein, sentiment has shifted overly negative as market participants digest the continuous flow of bad news. "Seems EVERYONE negative on the [market] with sticky inflation, more rate hikes, other bad stuff ahead," he tweeted over the weekend. GMO's Jeremy Grantham said the fundamentals are as bad as "we have ever seen," adding that the US stock market is in the early stages of deflating a "super bubble."

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks would still need to fall more than 50% just to reach valuation norms — and warns of an 'avalanche of earnings disappointments'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman says stocks would have to fall more than 50% further to hit valuation norms. Stocks have staged an impressive rally in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 up 9% since October 12. For Hussman, valuations are still too high, even though the benchmark index has fallen as much as 25% this year. Still, valuations are nowhere near levels that we associate with satisfactory long-term market returns, so I suspect that more shoes will drop." The earnings disappointments Hussman sees will be caused by restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve that weigh on demand.

☆ What do Indians think about Rishi Sunak’s rise? Like UK-India relations, it’s complicated
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Rhea Mogul | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +13 min

Now, an Indian-origin man has become the Prime Minister of England,” a Zee News anchor said. Leon Neal/Getty Images Sunak and Boris Johnson watch as a sheep is sheared during a visit to a farm in North Yorkshire, England, in July 2019. Danny Lawson/PA Images/Getty Images Sunak speaks during a general election debate in Cardiff, Wales, in November 2019. Hollie Adams/Bloomberg/Getty Images Sunak and Murty are seen with their daughters, Krishna and Anoushka, while campaigning in Grantham, England, in July 2022. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggested as much in a tweet welcoming Sunak’s appointment.

☆ Sunak will do his best for Britain, billionaire father-in-law says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Rishi Sunak, his wife Akshata Murthy and his daughters Anoushka and Krishna attend a Conservative Party leadership campaign event in Grantham, Britain, July 23, 2022. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls/File PhotoNEW DELHI, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Rishi Sunak will do his best for Britain when he takes over as prime minister on Tuesday, said his father-in-law, Indian billionaire N.R. The 42-year-old, a practising Hindu who traces his roots to India, will be Britain's first prime minister of colour and its youngest leader in modern times. Sunak's rise to the position on Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, has delighted Indians, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he hoped the two countries' ties would improve further. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"Congratulations to Rishi," Murthy, valued by Forbes at $4.5 billion, said in a statement.

Like Truss, Sunak promised a tough approach to illegal immigration and vowed to expand the government’s controversial Rwanda immigration policy. At the time Johnson was running to lead Britain's Conservative Party and Sunak was a member of Parliament. Danny Lawson/PA Images/Getty Images Sunak speaks during a general election debate in Cardiff, Wales, in November 2019. Danny Lawson/PA/Getty Images Sunak delivers a speech during the annual Conservative Party Conference in Manchester in October 2021. Hollie Adams/Bloomberg/Getty Images Sunak and Murty are seen with their daughters, Krishna and Anoushka, while campaigning in Grantham, England, in July 2022.

☆ The billionaire founder of Interactive Brokers warns that stocks have another 20% downside as investors underestimate the impact a stagnant economy will have on earnings
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy is bearish on stocks over the next few quarters. Thomas Peterffy, the billionaire founder of Interactive Brokers, doesn't see the Federal Reserve succeeding in its goal to bring inflation back down to its long-term target of 2%. That doesn't mean, however, that the Federal Reserve will remain committed to reining in inflation, like they've pledged. Investors "are not accounting for the earnings hit that we will get from reduced demand," Peterffy told Insider on Friday. Rallies have been continually stymied by realizations that the Fed is going to have to raise interest rates higher than investors had originally expected.

OTTAWA, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Business sentiment has softened in Canada and most firms now think a recession is likely, a Bank of Canada survey showed on Monday, but inflation expectations remain high, leaving the central bank little choice but to continue raising rates. The bank's Business Outlook Survey showed 77% of firms see price growth staying above 3% for the next two years. A separate survey showed near-term consumer inflation expectations at record highs, though longer term expectations have eased, providing some relief. "Still-high expectations for inflation will keep the Bank of Canada in rate hike mode," said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, in a note. That is cause for concern for the central bank as it seeks to avoid a wage-price spiral, analysts said.

☆ A 26-year market vet breaks down why investing legend Jeremy Grantham is correct to compare the current market to the 2000 and 2008 'superbubbles' — and warns stocks will fall another 20%
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's little reason for optimism in today's market, Lance Roberts laments. Just look at the barrage of headwinds facing stocks right now, the RIA Advisors CIO said in an October 10 commentary. At the start of this year, investing legend and founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham, said stocks were in their fourth superbubble in the last century given that market valuations had veered from historical norms so drastically. On Friday, Roberts told Insider that he agrees with Grantham's assessments, and that he sees the S&P 500 dropping to around 2,900. One of Wall Street's most bullish strategists this year, BMO's Brian Belski, cut his 2022 price target on the S&P 500 again on Friday to 4,200.

☆ The Bank of England is snapping up bonds to stabilize debt markets — but that goes against its aim of stemming inflation. Here's what you want to know.
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Friday eve means the weekend's just around the corner, but it seems like nobody told the British bond market. The balancing act, at worst, could mean a calamity for the British economy and prolonged volatility in markets. And at best, policymakers thread the needle and stabilize markets, tame inflation, and regain the confidence of traders and everyday folks dealing with a tough economy. A weaker currency means imports get more expensive, and higher bond yields mean government borrowing gets more expensive. What will it take for bond market traders to regain confidence in the UK debt market?

☆ Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller says owning stocks 'doesn't make a lot of sense' right now as the US economy will likely go into recession in 2023 — and warns the market is in for a decade
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller says the US economy is headed for a recession in 2023. Stanley Druckenmiller delivered a bleak message on Wednesday on the fate of the US economy: a recession is very likely sometime next year. "I will be stunned if we don't have a recession in '23," Druckenmiller said at the CNBC Delivering Alpha conference in New York. Given the poor macroeconomic outlook and the Fed's stated willingness to cause damage to the labor market, Druckenmiller said he's not bullish on risk assets like stocks right now. "You can have a period of 15, 20 years, 10 years where the market doesn't go anywhere.

☆ Jeremy Grantham and 4 money managers share their top strategies for navigating a bear market in stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Below we've compiled views from 5 money managers on how to navigate bear market environments. When the going gets tough in financial markets, it can be difficult to know what to do with your money. To help navigate the current environment, we've compiled views from money managers on the best ways to approach investing in bear markets. Jeremy Grantham, founder of GMOJeremy Grantham is no stranger to bear markets — he called the 2000 and 2008 sell-offs, as well as the current one. Essele's top tip for navigating bear markets, however, is a more simple one: "Buy a lot of brown liquor."

☆ Wall Street's most highly regarded titans are warning 'the worst is yet to come' for stocks. Here's why people like Ray Dalio, Jeremy Grantham, Carl Icahn, and Scott Minerd are bearish on the market's
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Ray Dalio, Carl Icahn, Scott Minerd, and Jeremy Grantham all warned in recent days of more downside. In recent days, a number of them — including Ray Dalio, Jeremy Grantham, Scott Minerd, and Carl Icahn — have warned that further downside is coming. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater AssociatesRay Dalio at the MarketWatch Best New Ideas in Money Festival in New York on September 21, 2022. Carl Icahn, founder of Icahn Enterprisesvia CNBCIcahn also pointed out this week that it's a generally bad environment for economic growth and investors with the Fed tightening, which he supports. "I think it's going to be worse before it gets better," Icahn said at the MarketWatch Best New Ideas in Money Festival on Wednesday.

☆ 'Diary of a Wimpy Kid' actor Ryan Grantham sentenced to life in prison for killing his mother
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Minyvonne Burke | Minyvonne Burke Is A Senior Breaking News Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Canadian actor Ryan Grantham was sentenced to life in prison after he pleaded guilty to killing his mother in March 2020. He will be eligible for parole after serving 14 years, a spokesperson for the British Columbia Supreme Court in Vancouver said. Prosecutors said Grantham, who starred in "Riverdale" and "Diary of a Wimpy Kid," shot and killed his mother while she was playing piano at their home. Instead of committing these acts, Grantham drove to Vancouver police and admitted to killing his mother, the newspaper reported. Johnson said at the time of the murder, Grantham was dealing with untreated mental health challenges including a major depressive order.

☆ Ray Dalio says his hedge fund Bridgewater Associates is up around 25% this year. He shares 2 ways investors should approach a market he says is due to drop another 20% — and an area he's bullish on lo
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said on Wednesday that stocks are likely to fall further. Given his down outlook, Dalio was asked how investors should approach the current environment, and gave two answers. The former shields investors from rising or falling inflation rates, while nominal bonds can lose money when considering inflation. Dalio also recommended that investors keep their portfolios well-balanced and diversified, and avoid timing the market. "The most important thing that you can do is have a well-balanced portfolio, not to market time, but diversify," Dalio said.

☆ Big business likes to trumpet ESG credentials. But a 'greenwashing' reckoning could be on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Anmar Frangoul | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Many of these claims are now viewed through the prism of ESG, or environmental, social and governance. But here's the rub: Definitions of ESG often vary and are hard to pin down. Over in the United States, scrutiny of claims about sustainability and ESG is also taking place. When contacted by CNBC, Vale — which has an "ESG Portal" on its website — referred to a statement issued on April 28. The debate surrounding greenwashing is becoming increasingly fierce, with the charge often leveled at multinational companies with vast resources and significant carbon footprints.

☆ A former top TD Ameritrade technical analyst says stocks have yet to bottom as shares of several major firms remain 'disconnected' from reality — and warns the market could fall another 22%
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The S&P 500 is down 19% in 2022. Since January 3, the S&P 500 is down more than 19%. All except for Apple have underperformed the S&P 500, though they are more on par with the performance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which is down 28.1% this year. It currently sits at 27.54, and tends to rise when the S&P 500 falls. Markets InsiderWhen all is said and done, Bierman said he thinks the S&P 500 will bottom out somewhere between 3,000-3,300.

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