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☆ Financial shares fall as Credit Suisse becomes latest crisis for the sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Shares of the Swiss bank fell more than 24% after its biggest backer said it won't provide further financial support. Credit Suisse announced on Tuesday that it had found " material weakness " in its financial reporting process from prior years. Bank stocks were under pressure on Wednesday as the sharp drop of Credit Suisse rattled a segment of the market that was already reeling from two large bank failures in the past week. Some regional bank stocks saw even bigger declines. Credit Suisse struggles come on the heels of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the U.S. Those failures caused steep sell-offs in regional bank stocks on Monday.

☆ Premarket stocks: What comes next in the banking crisis? The early 1990s hold clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

This isn’t 2008: There are some key differences between today’s banking saga and what happened in 2008. This time around the US federal government stepped in early to guarantee all customer deposits and restore confidence in the US banking system. Here comes CPIFormer banking regulators, economists and Wall Street analysts are increasingly calling for the Federal Reserve to pause its inflation-fighting interest rate hikes because of the current banking sector chaos. Last Wednesday, investors were putting 70% odds of a half-point interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Analysts expect the inflation rate to come in at 6% year-over-year (down from 6.4% in January) and at 0.4% month-over-month (down from 0.5% in January).

☆ Odds of 50-basis-point Fed rate hike rise after Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 7 (Reuters) - Traders of futures tied to the Federal Reserve's policy rate were pricing in a half-percentage-point hike in interest rates at the U.S. central bank's March 21-22 policy meeting after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that continued strong inflation data could require tougher measures. That was up from the 30% chance seen before Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Futures briefly showed more than a 50% chance of a 50-basis-point (bp) hike immediately after Powell's remarks. The futures contracts pricing also points to firming expectations for the policy rate to rise to a 5.25%-5.50% range by June. Powell's testimony on Tuesday marked a stark acknowledgement that a "disinflationary process" he spoke of repeatedly in a Feb. 1 news conference may not be so smooth.

☆ The week in inflation: Data signals higher prices, possibly more aggressive Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

A week's worth of surprising economic data sent a pretty strong message to the market: Inflation that is higher than anticipated is likely to translate into higher interest rates as well. "We are listening to the signal from January inflation data, which suggest the disinflation process may be more prolonged than we previously believed," wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. The data surprises began two weeks ago when nonfarm payrolls surged by a stunning 517,000 in January , raising concerns that a resilient labor market could drive wages, and inflation, higher. The consumer price index , a closely watched inflation metric, jumped 0.5% in January, a bit more than expected. Futures pricing points to a peak, or "terminal," rate of 5.23%, according to the August 2023 fed funds futures contract.

☆ Fed's words in focus as markets bet rate hikes will soon end
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The rate increase expected at the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting would bring the policy rate to the 4.5%-4.75% range. That's two quarter-point rate hikes short of the level most Fed policymakers in December thought would be "sufficiently restrictive" to bring inflation under control. At the same time, he said, "there's going to be some caution" about doing anything that could feed market expectations that a pause in rate hikes is imminent. Fed policymakers, as of December at least, all see no rate cuts until 2024. "The key question is how committed they are to further rate hikes."

☆ Sterling touches seven-month peak in early trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Sterling hit a seven-month high against the dollar in Asian hours on Monday supported by economic data that showed the British economy was performing better than feared and that also drove expectations of more interest rate increases. The pound hit $1.24475 in early trading on Monday, its highest level since June 10, 2022. Moves were exacerbated by thin liquidity due to the Lunar New Year holidays in major financial centres such as Hong Kong and Singapore. "The firming up of BoE tightening expectations has allowed sterling to match this year's strength of the euro." Markets pricing indicates a 70% chance of a 50 basis point rate increase at the Bank of England's February meeting.

☆ Gold prices dip as firmer dollar dulls appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies (.DXY) up 0.3%Silver will outperform gold in 2023-analystJan 17 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched lower on Tuesday, weighed by an uptick in the dollar, although hopes of slower interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve capped further losses. On Monday, prices hit $1,929, the highest since late-April 2022. A stronger dollar turns gold less attractive to buyers with other currencies. "Expectations of the Fed slowing pace of rate hikes has been supporting gold. The U.S. central bank slowed its pace of rate hikes to 50 bps in December after four consecutive 75 bps increases.

☆ Skip the Plastic Surgery. Age ‘Intentionally’ With These Kinder Treatments.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( Marisa Meltzer | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

ABOUT FACE Not everyone keen to counter aging wants a major face-lift. Some women are rejecting scalpels in favor of gentler treatments. EVERY YEAR on her birthday Heidi A. Waldorf, a dermatologist in Nanuet, N.Y., posts a selfie on social media. But she does include information on the beauty treatments she’s had, including dermal fillers, botulinum toxin (Dysport) and Thermage, a radio-frequency therapy that tightens skin. All these in-office procedures are nonsurgical and considered non- or minimally invasive.

☆ The S&P 500 and the VIX are near key thresholds, which could test the market’s mood
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. On balance, the result for stocks is a hesitation right near a fulcrum point for the S & P 500 – its 200-day moving average and the downtrend line from the January 2022 peak. In the very short term (like on a five-day rate-of-change scale) the S & P as of Wednesday's close was getting slightly stretched. -In the '90s, the Fed thought unemployment anywhere below around 5% to 6% would cause inflation to accelerate, but that proved wrong. For all of 2022, it has been smart to sell into rallies in the S & P at or above the 200-day average and when the VIX has dropped to or below 20.

☆ We just got confirmation that interest rates on mortgages, cars, and credit cards will keep getting more expensive in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve's December minutes confirmed interest rates won't be cut in 2023. It noted that as long as inflation is well above 2%, continued interest rate hikes will be necessary. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) December meeting, when it announced it would be raising interest rates by 50 basis points. "No participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023," the minutes said. This means that while the Fed might lower the pace at which it raises interest rates throughout the year, taking on loans to buy a house, car, or mortgage will keep getting more expensive.

☆ Dollar flat as investors digest China's loosening of COVID rules
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was flat on Tuesday after China said it would scrap its COVID-19 quarantine rule for inbound travelers - a major step in reopening its borders, even as COVID cases spike. At the same time, Beijing downgraded regulations for managing COVID cases to the lighter Category B from the top-level Category A. "There seems to be no let-up in the pace of relaxing COVID restrictions despite the surge in COVID cases in the mainland." Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.0640. With UK markets closed for a public holiday, trading in sterling was muted, leaving the pound down against the dollar at around $1.2031.

☆ Media mogul Michael Bloomberg looking to buy Dow Jones or Washington Post- Axios
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Dec 23 (Reuters) - Billionaire Michael Bloomberg, the owner of Bloomberg L.P., is interested in acquiring either Wall Street Journal parent Dow Jones or the Washington Post, news website Axios reported on Friday, citing an unnamed source familiar with the matter. According to the Axios report, Bloomberg sees News Corp-owned (NWSA.O) Dow Jones, also the publisher of Barron's and MarketWatch, as the ideal fit but would buy the Post if Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) founder Jeff Bezos was interested in selling. Bloomberg L.P., the Washington Post and Dow Jones did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment. In October, Rupert Murdoch had started a process that could reunite his media empire, News Corp and Fox Corp (FOXA.O), nearly a decade after the companies split. Reuters competes with Bloomberg News, a unit of Bloomberg L.P., as a provider of financial news.

☆ Media mogul Bloomberg eyes Dow Jones or Washington Post acquisition, no talks yet
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

According to the Axios report, Bloomberg sees News Corp-owned (NWSA.O) Dow Jones, also the publisher of Barron's and MarketWatch, as the ideal fit but would buy the Post if Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) founder Jeff Bezos was interested in selling. Bloomberg L.P., the Washington Post and Dow Jones did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment. "The transaction would be challenged only if the resulting choices leave insufficient competition in the market for either users or suppliers. In October, Rupert Murdoch had started a process that could reunite his media empire, News Corp and Fox Corp (FOXA.O), nearly a decade after the companies split. Reuters competes with Bloomberg News, a unit of Bloomberg L.P., as a provider of financial news.

☆ Apple stock’s recent weakness could stem from safety-seeking investors who are now fleeing
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. We're not yet in breakdown mode, in other words, as the S & P 500 remains above its 20-day average (near 3,900). There's very much another value-over-growth tone: Month-to-date S & P 500 value is outperforming growth by three percentage points and by more than 20 so far this year. Breadth is positive despite the red S & P 500. VIX is hanging near 22, up off the low and very much in an inverse range to that of the S & P 500 for the past several months.

☆ Rouble pares early losses to hover around 61 to the dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MOSCOW, Nov 22 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble hovered around 61 to the dollar after touching its lowest in nearly two weeks early on Tuesday, with pressure from oil market jitters countered by rouble buying to cover month-end tax payments. At 0714 GMT the rouble was down 0.1% against the dollar at 60.90 , having slid to 61.1950 earlier in the session for its weakest since Nov. 10. The rouble could strengthen towards the 60 mark during the session, said Bogdan Zvarich, chief analyst at Banki.ru. The rouble is supported by a month-end tax period in which exporters usually convert foreign exchange revenue into roubles to pay domestic liabilities. For Russian equities guide seeFor Russian treasury bonds seeReporting by Alexander Marrow Editing by David GoodmanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ COP27 deal is a blessing in a very good disguise
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( George Hay | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt, Nov 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The world’s premier forum for combatting climate change concluded in Egypt’s Sharm El-Sheikh on Sunday with an inadequate agreement to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. At Glasgow’s COP26 a year ago, the world’s nearly 200 nations promised to update their decarbonisation plans in 2022. Pessimists will accurately stress that a newly agreed loss and damage fund to pay off affected countries is just an empty bucket – the details will be determined later. At COP26 it was obvious a perceived lack of generosity from richer nations was holding back efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The commitment to establish a dedicated “loss and damage” fund left many of the most controversial decisions on how it might work until next year, including who should pay into it.

☆ Shares and bonds chastened as Fed, ECB urge care
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Lawrence White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Meanwhile dovish comments from European Central Bank policymaker Fabio Panetta saw European bond yields ease, but short-dated rates remained within striking distance of multi-year highs. Panetta said the ECB needs to avoid overtightening as that could destroy productive capacity and deepen a recession. The benchmark European STOXX index rose 0.26% (.STOXX), and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.6%, after jumping 7.7% last week. The dollar index was last seen on Monday at 106.86, still well short of last week's 111.280 top , while the euro eased a touch to $1.032 , after climbing 3.9% last week. The firming dollar also dragged down oil prices, despite the hopes of a demand boost from China's hints at reopening.

☆ Shares and bonds chastened as Fed urges caution
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Lawrence White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The benchmark European STOXX index rose 0.15% (.STOXX), and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.5%, after jumping 7.7% last week. EYES ON CHINAChinese stocks gained on reports that regulators have asked financial institutions to extend more support to stressed property developers. The support for China's property sector, which consumes a vast amount of metals, boosted copper towards a five-month high. The dollar index was last seen on Monday at 107.15, still well short of last week's 111.280 top , while the euro eased a touch to $1.02875 , after climbing 3.9% last week. The firming dollar also dragged down oil prices, despite the hopes of a demand boost from China's hints at reopening.

☆ Russian rouble slides past 62 vs dollar to over 2-week low
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

By 0758 GMT, the rouble was 0.7% weaker against the dollar at 62.20, earlier sliding to its weakest mark since Oct. 17. The Russian currency had gained 0.4% against the euro to 60.91. A slip in oil prices, Russia's key export, also put pressure on the Russian currency, with Brent crude oil trading down 0.9% to $95.3 a barrel. The rouble has also now lost the support of month-end tax payments, that usually see exporters convert foreign currency revenues to pay local liabilities. Russian stock indexes opened sharply lower, tracking global markets after the Fed's rate hike fuelled fears of a recession.

HONG KONG, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Wall Street major Morgan Stanley (MS.N) is expected to start a fresh round of layoffs globally in the coming weeks, three people with knowledge of the plan said, as dealmaking business takes a hit due to rising inflation and an economic downturn. One of the sources said the bank's 30-plus technology investment banking team in Asia Pacific will also be affected by the cuts. Morgan Stanley last month reported a 30% slump in third-quarter profit, missing analysts' estimate as a slowdown in global dealmaking hurt its investment bank business. Gorman is currently in Hong Kong at a high-profile financial summit aimed at re-opening the city to international investors after nearly three years of strict COVID restrictions. Reporting by Kane Wu and Julie Zhu in Hong Kong, Scott Murdoch in Sydney and Lananh Nguyen in New York; Editing by Sumeet Chatterjee and Richard PullinOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of England set for biggest rate hike in 33 years, but economists expect dovish tilt
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

New Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has scrapped the controversial tax cuts at the heart of predecessor Liz Truss' fiscal policy agenda, meaning fiscal and monetary policy are no longer pulling in opposite directions. Deutsche Bank also expects a split vote on Thursday in favor of a 75-basis-point hike, taking the key interest rate to 3%. Deutsche Bank now expects the Bank Rate to reach 4.5% by May next year, down from its previous projection of 4.75%, on account of retreating fiscal stimulus and a push toward fiscal consolidation. watch nowBank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent said in a recent speech that GDP would take a "pretty material" hit from such aggressive policy tightening. The Bank's August growth forecasts, which already pointed to a five-quarter recession, were based on a much lower Bank Rate of around 3%.

☆ The market is moving in-line with seasonal patterns almost perfectly — Post-midterms rally next?
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-29 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In a fully rational and efficient market, seasonal stock-performance factors should be of no use to an investor, and perhaps should not exist at all. This past September was brutal, the S & P 500 down 9.3%, with the downside skewed toward the second half of the month, just as the seasonal script dictated. Since 1950, the S & P 500 has never been down from November to April in a midterm year. Remember all the talk that stocks have tended to rally up to and through the first Fed rate hike? A 17% S & P rally from June-August on hopes of a dovish turn by the Fed and a firming in macro data.

☆ Dollar rides Treasury yields higher, yen closes in on key 150 level
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The dollar loomed over major peers on Thursday as Treasury yields peaked at multi-year highs, while the yen slid to a fresh 32-year low and kept markets on high alert for any signs of an intervention. The fragile yen hit a fresh trough of 149.98 per dollar, its lowest since August 1990, and last bought 149.975. "Given that Treasury yields have moved decisively above 4%, were it not for the threat of intervention then I think dollar/yen would already be trading north of 150." The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.154% on Thursday, its highest level since mid-2008, while the two-year Treasury yields touched a 15-year high of 4.582%. "Because central banks misjudged how high inflation would go, they're really still catching up by increasing interest rates significantly, and that's going to cause big problems for the world economy, particularly next year," said CBA's Capurso.

☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed isn't about to back down from its inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. London CNN Business —Twelve days from now, the Federal Reserve will meet again, and expectations for the central bank’s next moves are firming up. The consensus among investors: Persistently hot inflation means the Fed will need to continue with its string of aggressive interest rate hikes, which is unprecedented in the modern era. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inflation had become “pernicious,” which means that “frontloading” larger rate hikes is logical. But with two quarters of disappointing deliveries caused by supply chain issues and Covid-related shutdowns in China, that goal has looked increasingly out of reach, my CNN Business colleague Chris Isidore reports.

☆ The biggest takeaway from Bank of America's earnings, and what it means for the broader stock market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. There has been no net downside since June 16 even with yields higher, earnings expectations slipping and recession anticipation becoming entrenched. And the S & P has not even bounced back to Friday morning's high at this point, so it could be simply a bit more noisy, untrustworthy action. This market has many issues, but the valuation of the typical stock is no longer one of the top ones. Here we see year-ahead P/E ratios for the S & P 500, equal-weighted S & P 500 (back near late-2018 lows) and S & P 600 Small Cap (near Covid crash low).

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