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/USThe dollar index fell 0.21% from one-month highs, while the Japanese yen gained 1.21% to 131.08 per dollar after unusually strong Japanese wage data. The Australian dollar bolted 1.02% higher after its central bank reiterated further increases would be needed. Asian stocks stabilized overnight after they, like most global share markets, suffered steep losses following that U.S jobs data. Oil prices climbed more than 3% after Powell eased market concerns over rate hikes, while recovering demand in China also boosted prices. Gold eked out gains, tracking a slight pullback in the dollar, as investors mulled comments by Powell and the outlook for the Fed's rate-hike policy.

This would take the rate the ECB pays on bank deposits to the highest level since November 2008, after a steady climb from a record low of -0.5% in July. Reuters GraphicsThe ECB said in December that rates would be increased "at a steady pace" until it is happy inflation is heading back down to its 2% target. BNP Paribas also thought the ECB might take out the reference to a "steady pace" of rate hikes or offset it so that a 50-basis-point increase would be "not predetermined (but) still a possible outcome". And an ECB survey showed banks were tightening access to credit by the most since the 2011 debt crisis - usually the harbinger of lower growth and slowing inflation. To some observers, this meant the ECB would be wise not to commit to any future policy move.

In France, the bloc's second-biggest economy, factory activity returned to growth albeit not as strongly as initially forecast. In Asia, factory activity contracted in January as the boost from China's COVID reopening had yet to take full effect. China's factory activity shrank more slowly in January after Beijing lifted tough COVID curbs late last year, a private sector survey showed. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing (PMI) nudged up to 49.2 in January from 49.0 in December, staying below the 50 mark for a sixth straight month. Factory activity expanded in January in Indonesia and the Philippines but shrank in Malaysia and Taiwan, PMI surveys showed.

☆ Nasdaq 100 futures rise, propelled by Meta shares
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

S&P 500 futures advanced Wednesday night as investors looked beyond the latest interest rate hike and commentary from the Federal Reserve. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1%, helped by Meta shares. The S&P 500 reversed losses to end the regular session with a jump of 1.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite closed 2% higher. Meanwhile, the Dow eked out a narrow 0.02% gain after dropping more than 500 points earlier in the day. Investors closely watched the Fed meeting Wednesday, where a 0.25 percentage point interest rate hike was announced.

☆ Sick Britain no longer needs Dr Bailey’s medicine
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

However, such monetary tightening increasingly looks at odds with Britain’s dire economic conditions. Bank of England hawks can point to key indicators that are still running hot, such as inflation, economic output and wages. Yet those gauges are backward-looking and will cool down this year as a recession and past rate hikes hit consumers and firms. The effects of rate hikes take time to show up in the numbers. The rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee of the BoE split three ways in December when the central bank sanctioned a 50-basis-point increase.

☆ Euro zone factories are likely over the worst - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone manufacturing activity eased again last month suggesting the worst may be over, according to a survey which showed price pressures slackened and the fall in demand moderated, driving a surge in optimism. An index measuring new orders moved up closer to the breakeven mark and factories increased headcount at a faster pace. This was reflected in the future output index which jumped to 58.2 in January from 53.8, an 11-month high. That outperformance was despite sky-high energy costs and rising interest rates taking a heavy toll on the economy. Although the PMI's input prices index fell last month the index reflecting output prices rose slightly - but still remained firmly below levels seen over much of the past two years.

☆ Euro zone economy unexpectedly expands in Q4, avoids recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The euro zone eked out growth in the final three months of 2022, avoiding a recession even as sky-high energy costs, waning confidence and rising interest rates took a toll on the currency bloc's economy, data from Eurostat showed on Tuesday. Gross domestic product in the euro zone expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, outperforming expectations in a Reuters poll for a 0.1% drop. Among the bloc's biggest countries, Germany and Italy recorded negative growth rates for the quarter but France and Spain expanded, Eurostat added, based on a flash estimate that is subject to revisions. Russia's nearly year-old war in Ukraine has proved costly for the euro zone, which now spans 350 million people in 20 countries, given some members' heavy reliance on cheap energy. But the economy has displayed some unexpected resilience, too, much like during the COVID-19 pandemic, when growth outperformed expectations as businesses adjusted faster to changed circumstances than policymakers had predicted.

☆ France eked out 0.1% growth in Q4 as energy crisis eased
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The French fourth quarter GDP figures also provided a positive contrast to Germany after data on Monday showed that the euro zone's biggest economy had unexpectedly shrunk in the fourth quarter. "However, the weakness of domestic demand at the end of last year suggests that a recession is likely, albeit not certain," he added. INSEE said that foreign trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP in the final quarter of 2022 as exports fell only 0.3 percentage points against 1.9% for imports on lower energy prices. That helped make up for weak domestic demand and companies destocking inventories, which both subtracted 0.2 percentage points from GDP. As record inflation eroded households purchasing power, consumer spending weighed on overall domestic demand, falling 0.9% from the previous three months.

☆ Euro zone economy unexpectedly grows in Q4 but weak 2023 looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Among the biggest euro zone countries, Germany and Italy recorded negative growth rates for the quarter but France and Spain expanded, Eurostat added, based on a flash estimate that is subject to revisions. Russia's nearly year-old war in Ukraine has proved costly for the euro zone, which now spans 350 million people in 20 countries, given some members' heavy reliance on cheap energy. The overall picture nevertheless remains weak, with meagre growth forecast for 2023 due to a large drop in real incomes and surging interest rates. Ireland's 3.5% Q4 growth figure distorted the overall picture as it was driven largely by activity among big foreign companies based there for tax reasons, economists said, adding that without Ireland, euro zone growth would have been zero. "We continue to expect the euro area economy to contract slightly in the first half of the year, and the recovery expected in the second half is likely to be weak."

☆ Asian stocks make 7-month highs, Australian dollar gains on hot inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Asian equities scaled their highest levels in seven months on Wednesday after some regional markets reopened after holidays, and the Australian dollar hit multi-month highs as surging inflation made higher interest rates more likely. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.2% to a seven-month high but traded below the day's peak. Globally, stocks have posted strong gains this year after a torrid 2022, based on expectations that inflation is close to peaking and the rise in U.S. interest rates will taper off. Stronger-than-expected economic data in Europe eased market worries of a sharp recession there, but interest rates are still seen creeping higher despite declining energy prices reducing inflationary pressure. The New Zealand dollar slid after New Zealand reported annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter, below a central bank forecast of 7.5%.

☆ Asian stocks rise to 7-month highs, hot inflation boosts Australian dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Asian equities extended their winning run to scale their highest levels in seven months on Wednesday, with South Korean stocks leading the way, and the Australian dollar hit multi-month highs as surging inflation made higher interest rates more likely. Globally, stocks have posted strong gains this year after a torrid 2022, based on expectations that inflation is close to peaking and the rise in U.S. interest rates will taper off. Stronger-than-expected economic data in Europe has eased market worries of a sharp recession in the euro zone as energy prices decline, though interest rates are still seen creeping up. Analysts had thought there was some chance the RBA might even pause its tightening campaign, but the pace of inflation put paid to that. Gold prices held steady at $1,938 per ounce, hovering near a nine-month peak touched in the previous session.

☆ Aussie jumps, kiwi slumps after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped to a more than five-month high on Wednesday after inflation data came in hotter than expected, while the kiwi slipped after New Zealand's fourth-quarter inflation rose less than what its central bank had forecast. The euro held near a nine-month peak against the dollar, as traders weighed a rosier growth outlook for the euro zone sagainst growing signs of a looming U.S. recession. Meanwhile, the kiwi slid nearly 0.6% to $0.6469, after New Zealand's annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter came in below its central bank's 7.5% forecast. Data on Tuesday showed that euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, indicating the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared. Policymakers are committed to taming inflation, but are split on the size of moves beyond February's likely half-a-percentage point increase.

☆ A Florida Democratic state lawmaker says the party must 'go back to the basics' in order to reverse recent statewide losses: 'We're very much at the bottom of the bottom'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A Florida Democratic legislator told The Washington Post of the party's struggles in the state. A party operative told the paper that the GOP continues to organize in the state, while Democrats have "regressed." Bush carried Florida for the GOP, but in 1996 then-President Bill Clinton flipped the state into the Democratic column in his successful reelection bid. The GOP governor, last fall, won reelection in a 19-point landslide over his Democratic rival, former Gov. In a recent interview with The Washington Post, Democratic state Rep. Anna AskMen said that the party had to "go back to basics" and overhaul its door-knocking and get-out-the-vote operations.

☆ U.S. economy losing momentum as retail sales post biggest drop in 12 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The second straight monthly decrease in retail sales, which are mostly goods, is undercutting production at factories. Retail sales plummeted 1.1% last month, the biggest drop since December 2021. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon 1 2Retail salesMANUFACTURING OUTPUT FALLSExcluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales fell 0.7% last month. The weakness in core retail sales is likely to be offset by anticipated gains in services spending. The government reported last week that monthly consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December.

The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was up 0.1% by 0910 GMT, extending gains for a sixth straight day on boost from rate-sensitive technology stocks (.SX8P) and industrials (.SXNP). Richemont (CFR.S) rose 2% on reporting higher quarterly sales as tourists returned to Europe and Japan. Still, the luxury group missed market estimates after sales in China plunged by almost a quarter. "For luxury, China is quite important with more hopes of rebounding activity in the first half of this year," said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Investment Bank. Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

"The economy grew a little in November with increases in telecommunications and computer programming helping to push the economy forward. Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games," ONS statistician Darren Morgan said. The ONS said December's GDP would need to drop by about 0.5% for fourth-quarter growth to be negative when rounded to one decimal place, assuming no other revisions. Finance minister Jeremy Hunt said after the GDP data that "the most important help we can give is to stick to the plan to halve inflation this year so we get the economy growing again". Reporting by David Milliken and Andy Bruce; editing by Sarah Young and Kate HoltonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ JPMorgan upgrades this under-the-radar Latin American airline, says it can rally 50%
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Copa 's stock could rally as air travel continues to rebound and industry-wide headwinds ease, according to JPMorgan. Analyst Guilherme Mendes upgraded the Latin American airline's stock to overweight from neutral. Mendes said Copa is attractive given its financials, specifically its debt-to-EBITDA ratio and liquidity. To be sure, Mendes noted factors like increased competition, weaker air travel recover than expected and re-elevated fuel prices could impact the stock's performance. Within the broader air travel sector, the analyst pointed to capacity increases and a 30% drop in jet fuel prices since October as evidence of an improving environment.

☆ This global ETF is the only fund that's posted gains every year for the past decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An ETF tracking Canadian consumer stocks is the only major fund to have had a positive return every year over the past decade, data shows. The Canadian-dollar-based fund beat the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) by 59 percentage points in total returns over the past decade. It also outperformed the Canada-focussed iShares Core S & P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF (XIC) by about 125 percentage points over the same period. The Canadian consumer staples ETF has risen by 2% this year to 85.9 Canadian dollars ($64.15) a share. Unlike the larger index funds, the iShares S & P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index ETF includes just 11 stocks, with a significant weighting toward the food retail and packaged foods sectors.

JOSH BRECHEEN - FLIPPEDThe Oklahoman freshman went for McCarthy on Friday afternoon, saying a deal "will allow conservatives to rein in out-of-control spending." ANDREW CLYDE - FLIPPEDClyde of Georgia is a member of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, which is driving opposition to McCarthy. He moved to support McCarthy on Friday. ANDY BIGGS - OPPOSEDThe Arizona lawyer ran against McCarthy in the first round of voting for speaker. MATT ROSENDALE - OPPOSEDThe lone congressman from Montana has remained opposed to McCarthy, voting repeatedly for fellow Republican Kevin Hern instead.

☆ GM reclaims title as America's top automaker after a 2.5% jump in sales last year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

DETROIT – General Motors reclaimed its U.S. sales crown from Toyota Motor last year as the Detroit automaker eked out a slight gain in annual U.S. vehicle sales despite supply chain problems. GM said Wednesday it sold 2.27 million vehicles in the U.S. in 2022, up by 2.5% over 2021, including a 41.4% increase during the fourth quarter. Toyota said it sold 2.1 million vehicles in the U.S. last year, down 9.6% from 2021. Toyota edged out GM in sales by 114,034 vehicles in 2021 – dethroning the Detroit automaker for the first time since 1931 when it surpassed Ford Motor . Jack Hollis, executive vice president of Toyota Motor North America, on Wednesday said the Japanese automaker remains focused on retail sales, which are traditionally more profitable than commercial or fleet sales.

☆ This fund partially dodged market volatility by leaning on fixed income in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

But the Janus Henderson Investors' Balanced Fund has been able to shield itself from at least part of the year's volatility by reducing exposure to equities and leaning more on fixed income. Fixed income accounted for about 44%. "This year has been tricky, obviously, because there's been such a high correlation between fixed income and equity returns," he said. Within fixed income, Buckley said the fund has been more conservative by reducing exposure to corporate credit. Despite the challenges of 2022, Buckley is optimistic about 2023.

☆ Happy Fed Year: What’s on deck for the central bank in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —America’s central bank found itself in a glaring spotlight for much of this past year, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell wielded blunt tools of interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening to curb surging inflation. That means the Fed, with its “laser focus on the job market,” could be “continually hawkish” at the start of 2023, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. “This latent strength in the job market could be the reason that the Fed over-tightens,” he told CNN. Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, from right, Lael Brainard, vice chair of the board of governors for the Federal Reserve System, and John Williams, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, during a break at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Moran, Wyoming, on Aug. 26, 2022. That’s 0.2 percentage points higher than the 4.4% rate they were expecting in September and significantly higher than the current 3.7% rate.

☆ Six battleground states will hold the key to the White House in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

AP Photo/Andrew HarnikGeorgia2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. Two years later, Biden won the state by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual 2021 runoff victories of Sens. AP Photo/Matt RourkePennsylvania2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. AP Photo/Andy Manis, FileWisconsin2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically-divided states in the country. But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.

The implications of the world's most dovish central bank turning hawkish are too big to ignore. Japan's net international investment position, the difference between the stock of assets it holds overseas and stock of Japanese assets held by foreigners, is more than $3 trillion. And with Japan's portfolio investment assets and liabilities totaling $7.3 trillion, big yen moves could spill over to global leverage, hedging and derivatives exposures. As Washington-based consultant and former World Bank economist Philip Suttle notes, Kuroda can justifiably claim to have ended deflation. Over his 10-year tenure as BOJ governor, consumer prices have risen an average 0.77% year-on-year, compared with average 0.13% decline in the decade before.

☆ Sterling inches higher, heads for biggest quarterly gain since 2009
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Currency traders were focused on the Japanese yen, which jumped after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) unexpectedly tweaked a key policy. Sterling was last up 0.1% against the dollar at $1.216, having fluctuated in and out of positive territory in morning trading in London. The euro was 0.15% higher against sterling at 87.49 pence, meanwhile, after falling earlier in the session. The BoJ surprised global investors by tweaking its bond yield control policy on Tuesday. It will now allow the 10-year bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target, from 25 basis points previously.

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