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Two things will capture all the market's attention in the coming week: The Federal Reserve's March meeting and the government's ongoing attempt to quell worries about the banking system. If it raises, Powell should speak softly; no raise and Powell should strongly remind the market that the work isn't done. Still, for the week, U.S. stocks fared better, with the S & P 500 rising 1.5% and the Nasdaq gaining 4.5%. On Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ended March 11 came in at 192,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the prior week and below the expected 205,000. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Could this restaurant stock be a bright spot in the market?
  + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCould this restaurant stock be a bright spot in the market? The Darden trade ahead of next week's earnings. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Options Action traders, Carter Worth, Mike Khouw and Bonawyn Eison.
Now that Wall Street is about to close the books on yet another earnings season, it's time to see which names posted higher-quality earnings than others, according to UBS. In the S & P 500, about 86% of companies reported quarterly earnings thus far, according to FactSet data. However, UBS' strategist Keith Parker worries that earnings quality is an "overhang," saying the divide between earnings and operating cash flow for companies points to roughly 15% earnings-per-share downside for at-risk stocks. These stocks are in the S & P 1500, have a market cap greater than $3 billion, excluding stocks in financial, real estate and utilities. Meanwhile, Humana demonstrated strong earnings quality because of its leading position in the Medicare Advantage market, according to UBS analyst Kevin Caliendo.
"We downgrade First Solar to Neutral following +50% outperformance since August based on the benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act. Bank of America upgrades FedEx to buy from neutral Bank of America said in its upgrade on cost cuts. Bank of America upgrades Meta to buy from neutral Bank of America said it sees "multiple expansion" possibilities for Meta. Bank of America reiterates Costco as buy Bank of America said the warehouse club giant has a "strong value proposition." Bank of America reiterates Nvidia as buy Bank of America said it's standing by its buy rating ahead of the company's earnings report later this month.
Final Trades: Darden Restaurants, Thermo Fisher & more
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinal Trades: Darden Restaurants, Thermo Fisher & moreThe "Halftime Report" traders give their top picks to watch for the second half.
McDonald’s finds inflationary happy place
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - McDonald’s (MCD.N) is having a good time at the bottom of the price food chain. The Chicago-based burger purveyor on Tuesday said that same-store sales rose 12% year-over-year in the last three months of 2022. That has helped restaurants grow, but McDonald’s is particularly benefitting. That’s despite McDonald’s touting the benefit of “strategic menu price increases” this quarter; the company previously said its U.S. prices should be up over 10% for the full year. How long this can continue probably depends on other options staying pricier – but for now, the nugget-maker has found its happy place.
With a market cap of $346 billion, a $75 billion buyback is about 20% of the shares outstanding. Exxon Mobil also has a $50 billion buyback plan, for example. Wall Street loves buybacks Buybacks have become an important part of returning shareholder profits. "Wall Street loves buybacks for two reasons," Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst, product management for S & P Dow Jones Indices, told me. Here's a list of larger companies that had significant share count reduction in Q3, the last quarter with complete data.
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Chipotle is a post-pandemic winner with long-term growth that investors may not fully value, according to Wells Fargo. Analyst Zachary Fadem initiated coverage of the fast casual restaurant stock as overweight. He also said it has a group of long-term growth levers ranging from the "Chipotlane" drive-thru to its loyalty program. He added that the company should see strong comparable sales and improving EBIT margins driving growth going forward. Fadem also noted Chipotle benefits from pricing power in the restaurant industry and that it's considered a clear "post-pandemic winner," outpacing the broader space.
While none of these have been a disaster, only one company — Autozone — has seen first quarter estimates rise after its report, according to Nick Raich at The Earnings Scout. And that is the problem: Earnings estimates have been trending down for weeks. Like all multinational retailers, analysts began slashing Nike's second half 2022 earnings estimates and 2023 estimates this summer. Single-stock ETFs Nike's earnings out after the bell today will focus some attention on a curious phenomenon from 2022: single stock ETFs. Like most of the other single stock ETFs, this has failed to attract any significant assets.
Olive Garden has lost nearly $5 million in the space of three months, its parent firm's chief financial officer said. At its quarterly analyst call for its fiscal Q2 2023, Darden Restaurants chief financial officer Raj Vennam estimated that issues with lettuce production cost between $4 million to $5 million. Darden has faced mounting costs this year, with Vennam saying costs are up 20% for chicken and dairy year on year. The hit from rising prices for lettuce — a bedrock of Olive Garden's never-ending salad — was a shock. It was, call it, $4 million to $5 million impact in the quarter, that's meaningful," Vennam said.
Darden Sales Rise but Higher Costs Dent Profit
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Dean Seal | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Olive Garden is one of Darden Restaurants’ two largest chains. Darden Restaurants Inc. said sales rose 9.4% in its latest quarter as diners continue to eat out, while profit edged lower as the restaurant company faced soaring costs for food and labor. The owner of Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse and other sit-down restaurants on Friday also raised its guidance for its current fiscal year.
The company also raised its earnings outlook for fiscal 2023 to a range of $10.3 billion to $10.45 billion from its previous range of $10.2 billion to $10.4 billion. Revenue: $2.49 billion vs. $2.43 billion expected. Darden's total sales rose 9.4% compared with the same quarter last year. Olive Garden, which accounts for nearly half of Darden's revenue, saw same-store sales increase 7.6%, while overall same-store sales rose 7.3% for the company. Darden said it had 1,887 locations open as of the end of the quarter, compared with 1,852 last year.
Morning Bid: Hanging tough
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
As the world's major central banks turned the interest rate screw this week and insisted on more tightening ahead, their economies showed more signs of buckling under the pressure. And while markets lurched lower on the potentially toxic combination of a higher peak for interest rates into a looming recession, there are reasonable questions over whether the central banks will act as tough as they are talking. U.S. manufacturing declined 0.6% last month and reports from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve's showed business conditions in their regions remaining depressed in December. Even though after Wall St stocks plunged 2-3% on Thursday, futures remained deep in the red ahead of Friday's open. Led by the jump in euro zone sovereign borrowing rates after the ECB rethink, bond yields were higher across the board.
Accenture issued a revenue range for the current quarter whose midpoint is below current consensus and said the stronger U.S. dollar will impact its fiscal 2023 results by 5%. Maxar Technologies (MAXR) – The satellite owner and operator's shares more than doubled in the premarket after it agreed to be acquired by private equity firm Advent International for $53 per share. Guardant Health (GH) – Guardant shares plunged 33.4% in the premarket following trial results for its DNA blood test for colorectal cancers. Adobe also issued upbeat current quarter guidance. U.S. Steel (X) – U.S. Steel issued better-than-expected current quarter guidance and said commercial demand for steel is on the upswing in the U.S.
Goldman Sachs — Goldman Sachs shares slumped 1% amid news that the Wall Street firm will cut up to 8% of its workforce. The layoffs are slated to come in January and hit all areas of the Wall Street firm, CNBC reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The Wall Street firm cited recent underperformance in net adds as well as growing macro headwinds to advertising revenues. Lincoln National — Shares dropped more than 4% after Lincoln National was downgraded to underperform from hold at Jefferies, according to StreetAccount. JD.com and Alibaba shares rose more than 1% .
New York CNN —High lettuce costs are coming for Olive Garden’s never-ending salad. Olive Garden's parent company said high lettuce costs had a $4-$5 million impact in the quarter ending November 27. But the lettuce prices were “a big surprise.”California crop diseaseCrop disease in California, where much of the country’s lettuce is grown, has hit lettuce supply and forced prices to rise. The crop virus in addition to the geographical shift “was the perfect recipe for really historically high prices,” he said. High lettuce prices are hitting consumers in the grocery store, as well.
The more details that emerge, the more I feel like this is going to make a great Michael Lewis book (and movie) one day. Among the highlights from his testimony include his assertion that the crypto market is "the largest Ponzi scheme in history." In other news:Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022, in Washington. A top FTX exec blew the whistle on Sam Bankman-Fried's moves just two days before the crypto exchange collapsed. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the stock market could fall further in 2023.
Stock futures are flat Thursday evening as investors responded to data that elevated concerns of a looming recession and looked ahead to a slate of Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for Friday. They will also look for any hints on future Fed policy from speakers John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Mary Daly. Investors are trying to gauge the pace of future rate hikes and the central bank's view of the economy. There also will be data coming in the morning with December's purchasing managers' indexes within services and manufacturing. Manufacturing is expected to come in at the same rate as November, while services is expected to increase by 0.3 points.
Morgan Stanley names Exxon Mobil a top 2023 pick Morgan Stanley said Exxon Mobil is one of the best-positioned stocks heading into 2023. Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley said concerns about App Store competition are overdone. Bank of America downgrades Best Buy to underperform from neutral Bank of America said the environment is too challenging right now for Best Buy. Bank of America reiterates Nike as neutral Bank of America said it's cautious going into Nike earnings next week. Bank of America reiterates Alphabet as buy Bank of America said it's sticking with its buy rating on Alphabet but that investors need to hear more about the Google parent's cost-cutting initiatives.
Tesla (TSLA) – Goldman Sachs cut its price target for Tesla to $235 per share from $305, citing softer demand. Tesla shares are down about 40% since the end of September, and briefly dipped below $500 billion in market value Tuesday. Moderna (MRNA) – Moderna rose another 1.6% in premarket trading on top of yesterday's 19.6% gain. Aspen Group (ASPU) – Aspen Group rallied 14.8% in premarket action after the online education company reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue and improved profit margins. The firm said Paccar is among the industrial stocks poised to benefit from a sector recovery.
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed to announce Wednesday that it will once again raise interest rates. The Fed bumped up rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in the past four meetings (June, July, September and November). The more widely watched Consumer Price Index data for November comes out Tuesday, just a day before the Fed announcement. Jones still thinks the Fed will raise rates by only half a point this week and may look to hike them just a quarter point in early 2023. It seems likely that the Fed will cut its GDP target and raise its expectations for the jobless rate and consumer prices.
Monday: Coupa Software, OracleCoupa SoftwareQ3 2023 earnings release at 4:03 p.m. OracleQ2 2023 earnings release at 4 p.m. ETProjected EPS: $1.17Projected revenue: $11.95 billion"At 16 times earnings, I just don't see how much there is to lose," he said. Friday: Darden Restaurants, AccentureDarden RestaurantsQ2 2023 earnings release at 7 a.m. AccentureQ1 2023 earnings release at 6:45 a.m.
The next day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to announce a decision on the next stage of rate hikes. But what's still a question mark is how high the Fed will take rates up, and for how long, given the current economic slowdown. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury moved higher this week amid renewed expectations the Fed will need to raise interest rates higher than expected. ET: Consumer price index FOMC meeting begins Wednesday, December 14 After the bell: Lennar (LEN), Trip.com (TCOM) FOMC meeting ends; rate decision at 2 p.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Inflation and a hawkish Fed "I think the data can influence his press conference and how hawkish he is," said NatWest Markets' John Briggs. "If you get a higher CPI report on the back of that, it could create some significant market instability ahead of the Fed meeting." Recession fears "If you're more worried about recession than inflation, that means you bring in more bond buyers than sellers," he said. Retail sales, industrial production, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey as well as the Empire State manufacturing survey are released Thursday. Import prices 2:00 p.m. Fed statement and projections 2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing Thursday Earnings: Adobe, Jabil 8:30 a.m.
Olive Garden has parted ways with a manager who told staff who called in sick to find another job. The manager told staff in a message they'd need to "prove if their dog had died", KCTV5 reported. An Olive Garden spokesperson said the message didn't align with the company's values. In a statement to KCTV5, an Olive Garden spokesperson confirmed that the restaurant chain had "parted ways" with the manager who wrote the letter. Olive Garden did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Insider.
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