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☆ Take Five: How bad is it?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China and Britain release key economic data and officials from the Group of Seven nations talk climate goals. 1/ EARNINGS RECESSIONU.S. earnings season goes up a gear and the outlook is gloomy due to the regional banking crisis and the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades. Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-ago period, Refinitiv I/B/E/S data as of April 7 showed. In a sign of which way the authorities want lending rates to head, smaller regional banks have already cut deposit rates. China GDP vs 1-year MLF rate4/ NO ALARMS, NO SURPRISESIt's a big week for UK data, with February jobs figures on Tuesday and March inflation numbers Wednesday.

☆ Premarket stocks: What markets are watching after digesting the US jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

While inflation has come down and other economic data point to a cooling economy, the labor market has remained remarkably resilient. The labor market is cooling but not rapidly or significantly, and further rate hikes can’t be ruled out. More trouble for commercial real estateA few weeks ago, Before the Bell wrote about big problems brewing in the $20 trillion commercial real estate industry. In a worst-case scenario, anxiety about bank lending to commercial real estate could spiral, prompting customers to yank their deposits. The proportion of commercial office mortgages where borrowers are behind with payments is rising, according to Trepp, which provides data on commercial real estate.

☆ Unstable markets drag Canadian M&A, debt issuance to four-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Maiya Keidan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The collapse of regional banks Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the U.S. tightened credit market making funding difficult for deals. As the banking crisis abate and many global central banks move to the sidelines to assess the impact of rapid interest rates hikes, bankers are, however, betting that appetite for dealmaking would return. Canadian M&A volumes totalled $34.7 billion in the first quarter, down 52.3% from a year ago, with dealmaking off to the worst start since the same period in 2020. Some market participants noted the second quarter is already off to a stronger start, with the mining sector gathering momentum. Abeed Ramji, head of Canadian Debt Capital Markets at TD, said the lack of issuance from banks impacted the corporate debt market, adding that global markets had become more expensive for financing.

☆ Fed should stick to raising rates while labor market strong, Bullard says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 6 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should stick to raising interest rates to lower inflation while the labor market remains strong, given the high probability recent financial stresses will continue to abate and absent a marked tightening of credit conditions, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday. Economic data since the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting has been mixed, with encouraging signs of a loosening in the labor market and a further abatement in high inflation tempered by both remaining too strong for comfort. The Labor Department's employment report for March is due to be released on Friday. Bullard said this week's better-than-expected report on labor market openings still showed a job market that remained very strong by historical standards. Investors are almost evenly divided as to whether the Fed will keep its policy rate unchanged at its May 2-3 meeting or proceed with a quarter-of-a-percentage-point increase.

☆ Inflation's inventory gluts are here to stay and will hit the bottom line in weaker economy: CNBC Supply Chain Survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lori Ann Larocco | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But uncertainty about inventory management is significant, with almost one-quarter (23%) of supply chain managers saying they are not sure when gluts will be worked off. The supply chain pressures will be among the factors that weigh on quarterly numbers. Manufacturing orders and the economic outlook Recent data on manufacturing has shown a deterioration in the economy, with the ISM Manufacturing index in contraction level based on March data released this week. "This survey confirms that we remain in an era of serious supply chain cost-to-serve challenges," Baxa said. FreightWaves and ITS Logistics are CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data providers.

☆ If it's the start of a new bull market, CFOs aren't buying it
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Even fewer CFOs this quarter rate the chances of a new high in the Dow (under 15%) as being more likely than a fall back below 30,000 (57%) of CFOs. There was elevated uncertainty within this C-suite group versus the prior quarterly survey, with nearly one-third saying they don't have conviction about the next trend in stocks. In the previous survey, CFOs were evenly split — roughly 40% in each camp — on whether the recession would begin during the first half or second half of this year. More CFOs believe inflation has peaked – that finding has moved higher across three consecutive quarterly surveys, from under 50% to roughly 75% now. More than half of CFOs predict that inflation will not return to 2% until 2025.

☆ Exxon says its decarbonization business could outgrow oil, in multi-trillion market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Sabrina Valle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Exxon is tackling what should be a multi-trillion market in 10 years or more, Woods said. The result will be an Exxon less prone to commodity price swings through predictable, long-term contracts with customers striving to reduce their own carbon footprint. "This business is going to look quite a bit different than the base business of Exxon Mobil," vowed Dan Ammann, president of Exxon's two-year-old Low Carbon Business Solutions unit. Exxon is tackling carbon capture, hydrogen, biofuels, which it estimates have a combined potential of $6.5 trillion by 2050, equivalent to the traditional oil and gas business. The business can achieve "robust double-digit returns" off these long-term contracts, Ammann said.

But after a two-week storm which had analysts and investors rushing to rework their spreadsheets, the outlook is clouded. And the ructions have left the gap between the ratios of European and U.S. banks at its narrowest since September 2017. Reflecting concerns over the stability of the sector, bank shares are set for an almost 15% monthly drop in March, after five consecutive months of gains. European bank earnings growth expectations'UNLIKELY TO BUY'Other investors see pressure on European bank earnings as they anticipate the euro zone economy will slow down. Also in the calculation mix is the ECB's campaign to raise interest rates to tackle rising inflation, which had previously been a boon for euro zone lenders.

☆ 'Rust' case district attorney appoints new special prosecutors, recuses herself
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Natasha Piñon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The New Mexico district attorney who had overseen the "Rust" movie set manslaughter case recused herself Wednesday and appointed new special prosecutors after weeks of upheaval and controversy in the case. New Mexico First Judicial District Attorney Mary Carmack-Altwies appointed New Mexico attorneys Kari Morrissey and Jason Lewis to serve as special prosecutors. "My responsibility to the people of the First Judicial District is greater than any one case, which is why I have chosen to appoint a special prosecutor in the 'Rust' case," Carmack-Altwies said in a statement. Reeb, a former district attorney, was named special prosecutor before being elected to New Mexico's legislature last fall. Gutierrez-Reed's legal team, however, called for the request to appoint a new special prosecutor to be denied.

☆ Israeli Protests Abate After Netanyahu Suspends Judicial Overhaul
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Aaron Boxerman | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

JERUSALEM—Calm returned to Israeli cities Tuesday and protests against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’s judicial overhaul dispersed after the premier agreed to suspend the controversial plan and Israeli President Isaac Herzog offered to host compromise talks between the two sides. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis demonstrated on Sunday and Monday after Mr. Netanyahu fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, for calling to delay passing the first part of the government’s plan to weaken Israel’s judiciary. The country’s largest labor union had called a general strike that grounded flights and closed banks and government offices.

☆ Futures waver as banking crisis worries persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N), however, fell 3.8% in premarket trading as the bank suspended its dividend payout. Concerns about a global banking crisis have dominated market sentiment this week after the collapse of SVB Financial (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O). While the focus remains on the health of the banking sector, investors also looked ahead to U.S. central bank's policy meeting next week to gauge how it will tame inflation amid a banking crisis. Yield on the two-year Treasury note, which best reflects interest rate expectations, rose to 4.15% as some tensions about the banking sector abate. Shares of Fedex Corp (FDX.N) rose 11.1% premarket after the delivery giant raised full-year earnings forecast after cost cuts.

☆ A New York grocery store is using biometrics including eye scanners and voice prints to identify repeat shoplifters. Some shoppers say that's creepy — even if it deters theft.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Alex Bitter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

New York City grocer Fairway is collecting biometric data on its shoppers to catch shoplifters, the New York Post reported. Fairway is gathering facial recognition and other biometric information, such as voice recordings, on shoppers at one of its Manhattan locations, the New York Post reported on Thursday. Fairway told the Post that its system will only be accessed by "trained asset protection associates." Nearly one-third of the arrests made for shoplifting in New York City last year involved the same 327 people, the Post reported in January. But an investigation that year by the San Francisco Chronicle found that the affected stores reported fewer than two shoplifting incidents per month leading up to the closures.

☆ Stock futures open higher as regulators work to thwart any contagion from SVB's demise: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stock futures opened higher Sunday evening as investors awaited details on the next steps in the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. Federal regulators are conducting an auction for Silicon Valley Bank. The major indexes are coming off a losing week after the collapse of SVB sent shockwaves through the stock market. On Friday Silicon Valley Bank was taken over by regulators after massive withdrawals a day earlier created a bank run. "If the market feels that SVB is an isolated event, then the fear and contagion driven selling may abate.

☆ Here’s our fourth-quarter earnings report card for all the stocks in our portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +20 min

Fourth-quarter earnings season is in the rearview mirror and most Club stocks reported results ahead of, or in line with, analysts' forecasts. Moreover, excluding foreign exchange fluctuations, this marked the ninth quarter in a row of 20% or better annual earnings growth. Nvidia (NVDA) reported a very strong quarter and better-than-expected guidance for the current quarter . Eli Lilly 's (LLY) fourth-quarter results came up a bit short on revenue but delivered a strong bottom line. Despite missing on top-line expectations, Wells Fargo 's (WFC) earnings came in better-than-expected, as the bank realized the benefits of higher interest rates .

☆ Analysis: Declining U.S. bank reserves add wrinkle to contentious debt ceiling issue
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Bank deposits, which are part of reserves, also dropped with customers seeking higher-yielding alternatives for their cash. Lower reserves constrain banks' balance sheets, hampering their ability to lend to finance corporate growth and expansions, analysts said. As of March 8, bank reserves during the week averaged $2.999 trillion, Fed data show, falling around $1.3 trillion from a peak of $4.3 trillion in December 2021. Volumes on reverse repos have hit north of $2 trillion since June last year, even as bank reserves have dwindled. And cash assetsDeposit outflows, reverse repos, and bank reserves are all inter-related.

☆ The new era of investing is here and stocks will no longer be the key player, a top global strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

I'm eager to share today's conversation with a top strategist about changes to the current investing landscape — but first I have a question. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management. Courtesy of Principal Asset ManagementSeema Shah is the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. Seema Shah: The key part of it is that we're not in an era of unlimited central bank liquidity. Historically, in a period of low economic growth and higher-than-expected inflation, it outperforms global fixed income and global equities, almost without exception.

☆ JPMorgan upgrades Procter & Gamble, says consumer staples stock could be an earnings compounder
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

She also raised her price target by $5 to $155, which implies the stock could advance 10.8% from Thursday's close. Teixeira said investors should try to get ahead of what she sees as a likely inflection point in its fiscal 2023 fourth quarter. She said pressures easing can also help the stock regain its reputation as an earnings compounder, a term used to describe businesses that get good return on capital they invest into the business. To be sure, she noted that the company — and its peers in the consumer staples sector — has a connection to bonds. But she thinks investors will see the relative resilience of the company's brands and its earnings compounder distinction as more important.

☆ Analysis: Goldman Sachs faces hard sell for its consumer assets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Saeed Azhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) is embarking on a tough sales pitch to investors for assets in its troubled consumer business, which has dragged on earnings and may lack appeal for potential buyers. In an unexpected move, Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said on Tuesday the bank is looking at 'strategic alternatives' for the consumer business, a signal of a possible sale. Solomon had championed Goldman's foray into consumer banking since taking the reins at the Wall Street powerhouse in 2018. The consumer operations largely failed to gain traction against well-established consumer banks and lost billions of dollars due to credit provisioning. Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo, wrote in a note that the key question about Goldman's consumer business is: "who would be willing to buy it, and at what price?"

☆ A year later, the Fed still has a long way to go in the fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The rate hikes appeared to have quelled some of the inflation surge that inspired the policy tightening. Indeed, Fed officials for months stuck to the narrative that inflation was "transitory" and would abate on its own. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently insisted that he and his colleagues are taking "forceful steps" now to bring down inflation. The index most recently showed an annual inflation rate of 6.4%, down from a peak around 9% in the summer of 2022. Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst thinks the Fed could tame key inflation metrics to around 4% by the end of this year.

☆ These 13 beaten-down stocks offer a 'margin of safety' from a possible credit shock, according to a top-1% fund manager
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Higher-than-anticipated interest rates could lead to economic pain and even a credit shock. Top-1% fund manager James Abate explained why he hasn't given up on stocks yet. Here are 13 value stocks to buy in this shaky environment, according to Abate. Leading fund manager James Abate isn't predicting a repeat of the financial crisis, but he is worried that banks could get their biggest test in years if interest rates keep rising. While nothing is guaranteed in markets, Abate said that 2023 will provide many opportunities for fund managers like him to outperform.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed 0.1% higher ahead of a slew of economic data due later this week. Telecom Italia (TIM) (TLIT.MI) fell 2.7% as a government-sponsored offer rivalling KKR's bid for the former phone monopoly's prized grid failed to materialise over the weekend. The EURO STOXX index (.STOXXE), which houses major companies in the eurozone, inched down 0.1%. On the economic front, euro zone consumer confidence rose by 1.7 points in February from January, as expected, figures showed. Forvia, the European car parts maker born from Faurecia's (EPED.PA) takeover of Hella (HLE.DE), forecast stable 2023 sales, sending Faurecia nearly 2.3% higher.

☆ Factbox: Key ECB policymaker comments since Feb rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

By smoothing our policy rate hikes – that is, moving in small steps – we can ensure that we calibrate (policy) more precisely. Boris Vujcic, Croatian central bank governor, Feb. 10"I would agree that we are likely to see more rate action beyond March." Joachim Nagel, German central bank chief, Feb. 7"From where I stand today we need further, significant rate hikes." Pierre Wunsch, Belgian central bank chief, Feb. 3"I don’t think we're going to move from 50 basis points (in March) to zero. Gediminas Simkus, Lithuanian central bank chief, Feb. 3"The March rate hike is not the last one.

☆ Retail investors are flooding into the stock market at a record level — Here's what they are buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Retail investors poured a record amount of money into the stock market in January, according to Vanda Research. Retail investors' interest in the market picked up during the Covid pandemic, at one point fueling a meme-stock frenzy. JPMorgan's chief global market strategist, Marko Kolanovic, also recently noted the pickup in retail interest. Here are the top securities bought by retail investors so far this year, as of Feb. 15, according to Vanda Research. "Contrary to popular belief, retail money market funds' net assets at an all-time high suggest that retail investors still have plenty of capital to allocate to riskier investments, provided that market conditions remain supportive," he added.

☆ Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Tesla, Generac, Coinbase, Meta, Roku, Roblox & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Here are Thursday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Bernstein reiterates Tesla as underperform Bernstein said Tesla sharers remain overvalued. Loop reiterates Apple as buy Loop said it sees attractive iPhone revenue upside for Apple. Canaccord upgrades Generac to buy from hold Canaccord said it sees "storm clouds breaking" for shares of Generac. JPMorgan reiterates Roku as overweight JPMorgan said it's standing by shares of Roku after the company's earnings results on Wednesday. " Bernstein reiterates Meta as outperform Bernstein kept its outperform rating on the social media giant and says it likes the company's "clear cost takeout plan."

☆ China has U-turned on almost all major policies it put in place in the last 3 years — and it's not surprising, given the state of its economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

But the country reversed some major policies in response to the abysmal GDP growth. China's GDP grew by 3% in 2022 — the worst since the chaotic Cultural Revolution ended. Most recently, after three years of pandemic lockdowns and isolation, China abruptly reversed course and abolished its zero-COVID policy — leaving the world guessing why. China's GDP grew only 3.0% in 2022 — the worst in nearly half a century since the chaotic Cultural Revolution ended. China's GDP growth is vital because it is the world's second-largest economy after the US, so it's a driving force for global investment and trade.

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