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☆ Bank of America: Hedge funds are most bullish on these 20 stocks right now while they brace for an 'Armageddon'-style recession similar to 2008
  + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Bank of America noted that hedge funds' bond weighting relative to stocks is at an all-time high. Here are 20 stocks that hedge funds are most optimistic about right now. "Our economists expect an economic recession of half the magnitude of a typical recession," Subramanian wrote in the late April note. Additionally, hedge funds' allocation to bonds relative to stocks is at a record high, according to Bank of America. 20 stocks that hedge funds love mostEven though hedge funds have soured on stocks, they still believe there are companies that will outperform in this challenging economic environment.
☆ A.I. mentions in earnings calls skyrocket this season. What executives are saying
  + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Alex Harring Nick Wells | Alex Harring | Nick Wells | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
By comparison, less than 5% of companies mentioned AI in analyst calls held during the first quarter of 2016. Big Tech mentions jump AI has been a growing theme in Big Tech as companies try to capitalize on the wave following 2022's selloff. In calls from Big Tech companies alone, AI was mentioned 265 times. Executives at real estate company UDR said its AI chat has a 10% higher closing rate than normal call centers. Interpublic Group of Companies CEO Philippe Krakowsky noted the advertising company brought on a chief AI officer two years ago.
☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Bank of America's Savita Subramanian
  + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Bank of America's Savita SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Subramanian's thoughts on the earnings season thus far, if there will still be a 'reckoning' in corporate earnings and more.
☆ Stock market bulls hard to find amid high rates and banking fallout, says BofA's Subramanian
  + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStock market bulls hard to find amid high rates and banking fallout, says BofA's SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Subramanian's thoughts on the earnings season thus far, if there will still be a 'reckoning' in corporate earnings and more.
☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says a 60% decline in the S&P 500 is likely as high valuations and weak investor sentiment create a 'trap door' scenario
  + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
The chart below shows how far the S&P 500 would have to fall to provide either a 10% return or 2% premium over Treasury bonds. He sees the S&P 500 finishing 2023 at around 3,150, he told YouTube channel Wealthion. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 0.8% over the past year.
☆ 'The equity market is poised to struggle in the weeks and months ahead': Comerica Bank's CIO says the S&P 500 is primed for a 15% drop as weak earnings, high valuations, and a hawkish Fed all work aga
  + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8%. Plus, when the Consumer Price Index is between 4-6% like it is now, it usually dictates that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple than it is. "For example, at the current S&P 500 P/E of 19, the earnings yield for stocks is 1 divided by 19, or ~5.2%. While he sees 15% downside in the months ahead, he also believes the S&P 500 will return to current levels by the end of 2023. Morgan StanleyWilson has also repeatedly warned of an earnings recession ahead, and recently said that the pullback in lending from banks strengthens his case.
☆ Premarket stocks: The earnings recession is here. There could be worse to come
  + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
New York CNN —Earnings reports are coming thick and fast, showing how companies fared in the first few months of the year. But even as earnings are forecast to slump to their lowest level in three years, investors fear the worst is yet to come. This left significant gaps in the forensic search for Nazi-linked records, the Senate Committee stated. AlixPartners, according to the Senate committee, has indicated it will conduct a “supplementary review” of Credit Suisse’s connections to ratlines amongst other allegations. Credit Suisse is Switzerland’s second-largest bank by assets and has spent the past few years plagued by scandals and large losses.
☆ European stocks close higher as investors assess earnings; Stoxx 600 hit 14-month high
  + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Jenni Reid Holly Ellyatt | Jenni Reid | Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
She added that 73% of companies that reported last week surpassed sales expectations, while 67% beat on both measures. Last quarter's week one results showed just 46% of companies beat on both EPS and sales, while the historical average sits at just 48%. "Fueled by bank beats, 1Q EPS is tracking a 30bp surprise," the equity and quant strategist said. Overall, consensus expectations are calling for a more than 7% decline in first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 year over year, she noted. Big bank earnings may have offered some relief, but the market isn't out of the woods just yet as credit impacts emerge in areas like industrials.
☆ Buy these 23 small- and mid-cap stocks that will surprisingly beat Wall Street's first-quarter earnings expectations, according to Bank of America
  + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Below are 23 stocks that beat expectations in the last quarter and are expected to do it again. In other words, as the economy moves deeper into a downturn, forget about expectations and go for high-quality, cash-generating, shorter-duration stocks, says the bank. Stocks that have historically performed better during this stage are those that are large, high quality, and low risk, according to Subramanian's note. As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into gear, below are 23 small- and mid-cap stocks that have "buy" ratings from Bank of America's analysts. These stocks have beaten both their earnings-per-share and sales estimates during the last quarter and are expected to beat them this quarter as well.
☆ Asia stocks on guard for earnings, China economy surprises
  + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
EYES ON EARNINGS OUTLOOKS&P 500 futures inched up 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures were flat as investors awaited a slew of earnings reports led by Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N). Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-earlier period, though BofA analyst Savita Subramanian is more concerned about the outlook for 2023. "Our 2023 EPS estimate for the S&P 500 remains $200, still 9% below consensus estimates." In bond markets, the shift in Fed expectations pushed U.S. two-year yields up to 4.12%, having risen 12 basis points last week. Futures have 37 basis points of ECB tightening priced for the May meeting and 82 basis points by October.
☆ Asia stocks brace for updates on earnings, China economy
  + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
EYES ON EARNINGS OUTLOOKS&P 500 futures inched up 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures were flat as investors awaited a slew of earnings reports led by Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N). Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-earlier period, though BofA analyst Savita Subramanian is more concerned about the outlook for 2023. "Our 2023 EPS estimate for the S&P 500 remains $200, still 9% below consensus estimates." In bond markets, the shift in Fed expectations pushed U.S. two-year yields up to 4.12%, having risen 12 basis points last week. Futures have 37 basis points of ECB tightening priced for the May meeting and 82 basis points by October.
☆ Asia stocks on edge for earnings, China data
  + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
EYES ON EARNINGS OUTLOOKS&P 500 futures edged up 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures were flat as investors awaited a slew of earnings reports led by Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N). Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-ago period, though BofA analyst Savita Subramanian is more concerned about the outlook for 2023. "Our 2023 EPS estimate for the S&P 500 remains $200, still 9% below consensus estimates." In bond markets, the shift in Fed expectations pushed U.S. two-year yields up to 4.12%, having risen 12 basis points last week. Futures have 37 basis points of ECB tightening priced for the May meeting and 82 basis points by December.
☆ Bank of America: Buy these 10 stocks before they report earnings, then beat expectations and rally
  + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Bank of America says that the start of earnings season will be a critical stock-picking period. Strategist Savita Subramanian says a recession is coming, and earnings projections will get slashed. Subramanian identified companies that BofA expects to beat expectations again this quarter. "With the SVB collapse in March, data started to notably slow," Subramanian wrote. She also wrote that right now, Wall Street earnings projections for 2023 and 2024 look unrealistic if a recession is on the way.
☆ Here's what even a 'mild' recession would look like for stocks
  + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
That is hardly an "earnings recession." More accurately: analysts are predicting a mild "earnings recession" for the first half of the year, but then a rebound in the second half. The strategists have good reason to be nervous Strategists are nervous because the market is priced for a perfect landing. It is not even priced for a "mild" recession. The difference between a "mild" recession and a "deep" recession on stocks is enormous: a "typical" recession will produce an earnings decline of 10%-20%, and a multiple compression of 20%-25%.
☆ Expect another 10% downside to full-year earning estimates, says BofA's Subramanian
  + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect another 10% downside to full-year earning estimates, says BofA's SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and ESG strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what the strategist is looking for in earnings season, how investors can think about which theme to act on and more.
☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market says the S&P 500 has another 45% downside as investors remain blind to signs that a recession is hurtling toward the US economy
  + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Yet, stock market investors remain bullish, he said. He's been warning of a significant stock market decline since late 2021,"People are ignoring all the lessons of history," Wolfenbarger told Insider on Friday. His bearish outlook stems from how high stock valuations are relative to 10-year Treasury yields. Wolfenbarger also has company in thinking that stock market investors aren't heeding the warnings of a coming downturn. Yet, the stock market doesn't seem to reflect this uncertainty, he said.
☆ Bank of America shares its recession investing playbook based on 150 years of market history — including 5 ETFs to own now and 3 signals to watch to know when to 'confidently buy' at the bottom
  + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
For a downturn, the bank likes ETFs like IYK, ANGL, FALN, and CALF. Economists at Bank of America expect a recession to hit the US economy this year. Bank of AmericaThat's bad news for stock market investors, as a recession likely means downward pressure on corporate earnings and share prices. Bank of AmericaWhen the indicator has entered this phase in the past, the strategists said defensive stocks, small-cap stocks, value stocks, and emerging-market stocks have outperformed. In addition to the broader index, they also said materials stocks should outperform when the market begins to recover.
☆ Wall Street sentiment about stocks is worse than it was during the Global Financial Crisis lows
  + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Wall Street strategists have pared back allocations to stocks at a level not seen even during the worst of the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bank of America. BofA's "Sell-Side Indicator" shows that stocks are down to 52.7% as a share of investment portfolios. But when worry over stocks has run this high, it often means a rally ahead. While the firm has been pessimistic about stocks in the short term, it still finds equities a preferable alternative over the long run. "We note that Wall Street recommended underweighting equities through the entire bull market of the 1980s and 1990s as well as the 2009 to 2020 bull," Subramanian wrote.
☆ 5 must-see charts that show why the economy is barreling toward disaster — putting stocks at risk for massive declines
  + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening in labor market conditions," Powell said. "Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run." A large enough pullback in lending will send the economy into a downward spiral, he said. "If you get a credit crunch, you could have an immediate downturn in the economy, a very quick downturn," he said. Credit spreads are the gap between high-risk bond yields and yields on risk-free bonds.
☆ Bank of America's model with a good track record predicts S&P 500's annual return for the next decade
  + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The recent volatility has kept investors on edge, but Bank of America advised equity investors to focus on the long term as its trusty model suggests a sizable return for the next 10 years. The Wall Street firm said price-to-normalized earnings has explained 80% of S & P 500 returns over a 10-year time horizon since 1987, and the current valuations suggest a 7% annual total return (a 5% price return) for the S & P 500 for the next decade. "We have yet to find any factor with such strong predictive power for the market over the short or medium term," she added. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 The S & P 500 is still up 5% this year despite the banking crisis and recession fears. Based on data going back to 1929, the probability of losing money in the S & P 500 over one day is 46%, but the chance declines to just 6% over a 10-year time horizon, she said.
☆ Investors should keep buying stocks for the long-term despite attractive yields from short-term money market funds, Bank of America says
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
High cash yields shouldn't stop investors from buying stocks for the long term, according to Bank of America. "For long term investors, the S&P 500's price to normalized earnings has explained 80%+ of subsequent 10-year S&P 500 returns. That means money market funds that yield close to 5% are viable alternatives for investors, but only for short-term money. According to the note, investors' long-term holding period for stocks has fallen over time due to fixations on short-term price moves. For example, zero-day S&P 500 options now account for 45% of options volume versus less than 5% a decade ago.
☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns that the stock sell-off is 'not over by a long shot' — and that the S&P 500 could sink by more than 50%
  + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Hussman called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Sure, the S&P 500 is down 17% from its peak on the first day of trading in 2022, 15 months ago. But the numbers don't lie, says Hussman, who called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Wilson sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300, making him one of the more bearish strategists on the Street. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did.
☆ Why Goldman Sachs alumni are being hoovered up by elite hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium
  + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Alex Morrell | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +14 min
In November, one of the world's most consequential hedge funds announced a shake-up at the top of its power structure. In an internal memo, the founder of Millennium Management, Izzy Englander, said that Bobby Jain would be vacating the co-CIO role. "You can't readily find that managerial experience at other hedge funds and Goldman is a perfect place to look for those people." 8 former Goldman Sachs leaders are now Millennium execsEnglander isn't alone — firms rarely are in the copycat world of multistrats. In a statement to Insider, Abbey Collins, a spokesperson for Goldman Sachs, said, "Goldman Sachs has always been and remains a talent magnet.
☆ FedEx hikes 2023 earnings forecast as cost-cutting initiatives bear fruit
  + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
In this photo FedEx logo is seen in Washington D.C., United States on February 16, 2023. FedEx on Thursday hiked its full-year earnings forecast as it said cost-cutting measures offset continued demand weakness at units including FedEx Express. FedEx now expects adjusted earnings per share for fiscal year 2023 of between $14.60 and $15.20, up from a prior forecast of between $13.00 and $14.00. FedEx reported net income of $771 million for the period, down from $1.11 billion during the same quarter a year earlier. The company also said it expects volumes to improve in the current quarter and into its fiscal first quarter of next year.
☆ BofA's US stock chief highlights a 'tremendous opportunity' that's opened up for investors, and explains the adjustment they should make to enjoy stronger returns
  + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
She says there is a great deal of opportunity for investors who focus on company fundamentals. When investors find something that works for a long time, it only makes sense that they're going to stick with it. "We've all been trained to ignore fundamentals and just pay attention to Fed speak, central banks, and then also pay attention to what quants are doing to extend any momentum." She suggested that a lot of investors think that sooner or later, conditions will revert back to where they were before the pandemic, leaving a low-interest rate, low-inflation, low-growth environment. "There is a tremendous opportunity for fundamental investors, the few that are left," she said.
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