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☆ China walks back ambassador's claim that ex-Soviet states aren't real countries, a position that played strongly into Putin's hands
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China's foreign ministry walked back ambassador's comments dismissing ex-Soviet states' sovereignty. Other former Soviet Union countries include Ukraine and Moldova, as well as Central Asian countries that Russia has retained closer ties to. And Lu's comments seemed to suggest that China's foreign policy was inching closer to that of Russia. The Baltic countries have already questioned China's efforts to play peacemaker in Ukraine, and Lu's comments appear to have made them even more concerned. Estonia's foreign minister said Lu's comments were "false and a misinterpretation of history," and Latvia's foreign minister called them "completely unacceptable."

Russia has 110 official billionaires in the list, up 22 from last year, according to Forbes' Russian edition, which said their total wealth increased to $505 billion from $353 billion when the 2022 list was announced. "Last year's rating results were also influenced by apocalyptic predictions about the Russian economy," Forbes said, adding that the total wealth of Russia's billionaires was $606 billion in 2021, before the war began. The price of Urals oil, the lifeblood of the Russian economy, averaged $76.09 per barrel in 2022, up from $69 in 2021. Many Russian billionaires cast Western sanctions as a clumsy, and even racist, tool. New Russian names in the Forbes list include billionaires who made their money in snacks, supermarkets, chemicals, building and pharmaceuticals, indicating that Russian domestic demand has remained strong despite the sanctions.

☆ Moscow's promise of big payments to its troops is creating a new headache for the Russian military
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Michael Peck | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But there are already reports of Russian troops not getting paid on time or at all. Anger over pay issues could worsen the already poor morale among Russian troops in Ukraine. Lev Vlasov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesOn the other hand, life in the Russian military is no picnic. Nonetheless, military pay looks generous compared to the civilian sector, where the average monthly wage is 63,000 rubles, or $770. However, cutting military pay – or failing to pay salaries and bonuses – would be a risky move.

The economy ministry forecast GDP growth of 2% in 2024, down from 2.6% when it last provided macroeconomic forecasts in the autumn. SHRINKING SURPLUSRussia's current account surplus is shrinking sharply, down around 73% in the first quarter of 2023. Economists from the Institute of International Finance said Russia had a large "excess" current account surplus in 2022, with a surplus above and beyond the normal seasonal path in 2021 and 2022. "This windfall has ended in 2023, with Russia's current account surplus below 'normal', likely one reason why the rouble has weakened year-to-date," it added. The economy ministry lowered its rouble rate forecast to 76.5 to the dollar in 2023, from 68.3 in the previous forecast, and to 76.8 from 70.9 in 2024.

☆ Russia's war economy isn't as resilient as reports would have you believe
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

That brings us to today's main story — economists say the official data coming out of Russia isn't painting an accurate picture of Putin's wartime economy. "These are the things that businesses deliver and consumers purchase in an economy, and they have been absorbing the impact. Our tracker shows a contraction of the Russian economy ahead of the official figures release precisely because we use high-frequency indicators from the private economy." Vehicle sales, imports, credit growth, home prices, and other measures all point to a much less robust regime since Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine began. These four charts tell the story of how war has reshaped Russia over the last year.

☆ EU will issue fresh wave of sanctions to stop Russia reinventing their war machine, official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"We have to make sure they don't find ways around our sanctions," McGuinness said. McGuinness was also asked whether the EU will look to penalize countries that aid Russia in evading sanctions with new legislation. The U.S. Treasury Department last year published a list of countries helping Russia circumvent sanctions, which included Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. "We're changing our legislation to look at individuals who are involved in sanctions intervention," McGuinness said. Some countries, including Estonia and France, have called on the EU to sanction Moldovan and Georgian oligarchs allegedly working to help Russia destabilize Ukraine.

The sanctions, imposed by the Treasury and State departments in concert with Britain, hit entities and individuals across over 20 countries and jurisdictions, including facilitators of sanctions evasion, the State Department said in a statement. Separately, the Treasury said it imposed sanctions on Russian financial facilitators and sanctions evaders around the world, including Turkey, United Arab Emirates and China-based people and companies. The Treasury also targeted King-Pai Technology HK Co, Ltd, which it said is a China-based supplier for multiple entities in Russia's military-industrial complex. Washington has not yet imposed sanctions on Rosatom itself. "It will always be a race between sanctions enforcement and sanctions evaders.

☆ IMF cuts GDP forecasts, says global economy heading for weakest growth since 1990
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Ishara S. Kodikara | Afp | Getty ImagesThe International Monetary Fund on Tuesday released its weakest global growth expectations for the medium term in more than 30 years. The D.C.-based institution said that five years from now, global growth is expected to be around 3% — the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook since 1990. "The world economy is not currently expected to return over the medium term to the rates of growth that prevailed before the pandemic," the Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook. IMFIn the short term, however, the IMF expects global growth of 2.8% this year and 3% in 2024, slightly below the fund's estimates published in January. Banking turmoilThe IMF said that its baseline forecast "assumes that the recent financial sector stresses are contained."

☆ Russia's economy is becoming more dependent on China as yuan purchases more than triple
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Russian economy increased its dependence on China as the yuan becomes more prevalent. Russians bought 41.9 billion rubles worth of the yuan in March, the central bank said. That's more than triple the 11.6 billion rubles worth that was purchased in February. Russians bought 41.9 billion rubles worth of China's currency last month, more than triple the 11.6 billion rubles worth purchased in February, Russia's central bank said on Monday. Despite the declining presence of US dollars in Russia's economy, this is not a definite signal of a de-dollarized regime to come, analysts say, as China's yuan remains under tight controls.

By 2027, the IMF expects Russia's economic output to be 7% lower than forecasts made before Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, had suggested. "An exodus of multinationals, loss in human capital, isolation from global financial markets, and impaired access to advanced technology goods and know-how will hamper the Russian economy," an IMF spokesperson said. "A sharp worsening in the terms of trade could lead to a significant decline in both the current account surplus and in fiscal revenues," the IMF spokesperson said. Russia says its 2023 deficit will not exceed 2% of gross domestic product (GDP), but many analysts think it will surpass that level. The current account surplus shrank by a little over 73% in the first quarter on an annual basis to $18.6 billion, the central bank said on Tuesday, hurt by the sharply lower energy revenues.

☆ Russia's economy is becoming more 'primitive' and war could push it to the same fate as the Soviet Union, says economist targeted by Moscow
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Konstantin Sonin said the Russian economy has become more primitive since the war began, Russian news outlet Novaya Gazeta reported. The economist, who Moscow placed on its wanted list, said Russia could follow the Soviet Union's path toward "complete economic implosion." "Everything that is happening makes the Russian economy more primitive, more backwards." "Everything that is happening makes the Russian economy more primitive, more backwards," Konstantin said. And I think we are seriously going to follow the Soviet Union's path from the 1970s to the complete economic implosion of the late 1980s."

☆ The Russian economy is much worse than it appears as Moscow's data is a 'collection of lies and distortions,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's economic data is full of 'lies and distortions,' economist Alexei Bayer wrote. "Russian economic statistics are a collection of lies and distortions," he wrote in the Jerusalem Post. But those estimates are based on official data from the Russian government, said Bayer, who pointed to consumer inflation numbers. "During the Cold War, the CIA concluded, using Soviet statistics, that the Soviet Union had the world's second-largest economy," he wrote. "When communism collapsed, Russia's economy turned out to be not much larger than Portugal's."

☆ China has not provided extensive assistance to Russia as part of its war against Ukraine even as the two countries forge closer ties, senior Treasury officials say
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Sam Fossum | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

One senior Treasury official said that China is, as of now, unwilling to provide material support to Russia at scale and in a significant way, pointing instead to Russian efforts to source material from North Korea and Iran. The US and its allies have also taken more direct action, sanctioning a Chinese satellite company providing intelligence to Russian forces in January and putting some Chinese companies on the US export control list. But in recent months officials have also begun to see some results from their public and private efforts. Turkish officials told the US last month that their government has been taking further action to block the transit of sanctioned goods directly to Russia, according to a source familiar with the discussion. In a speech earlier this year on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo publicly warned Russian intelligence services that the US is monitoring their efforts and is cracking down.

☆ Premarket stocks: What the OPEC cuts mean for Putin and Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

OPEC+ was formed in 2016 to coordinate and regulate oil production and stabilize global oil prices. What it means for Putin: OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production could have big implications for Russia. After Russia invaded Ukraine last year, the United States and United Kingdom immediately stopped purchasing oil from the country. Higher-priced oil could help Russia pay for its war on Ukraine and also boosts revenue in Saudi Arabia. Current regulations, Dimon argued, could actually lull banks into complacency without actually addressing real system-wide banking issues.

Last week's official data showed annual industrial output decline slowed in February, largely thanks to the defence sector, offsetting some of the damage wrought mainly by sanctions on Russia's key energy exports. Russian industrial output fell 1.7% year-on-year in February after a 2.4% drop in January, data from the federal statistics service Rosstat showed. Polevoy estimated that non-defence industrial production shrank about 8% year-on-year, while output of sectors with a high share of state defence orders jumped 36%. The decline in energy revenues has pushed Russia's budget deficit to $34 billion in January-February, compared with a surplus of $4 billion in 2022. LONG-TERM DECLINEAn independent study last month suggested Russia's middle class will shrink as social inequality grows, even if sanctions get relaxed.

☆ Former Russian commander in Ukraine says Moscow was unprepared for a protracted war and is now 'heading for military defeat'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Joshua Zitser | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He has criticized Russia' war strategy, saying on Sunday that Russia is sleepwalking toward defeat. Girkin, who is also known by his alias "Strelkov," is now a prominent war blogger who has criticized the Russian military strategy in Ukraine. "I'm not afraid to say that we are heading towards military defeat," Girkin said, adding that the Russian economy, military, and political system were unprepared for such a "long, protracted war." In February, Girkin criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin's national address about the war with Ukraine for blatantly ignoring Moscow's "failures" and "defeats." In October 2022, Ukrayinska Pravda reported that Girkin was believed to be fighting for Russia in Ukraine.

☆ Putin: Sanctions could hurt Russia's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

London CNN —President Vladimir Putin has conceded that Western sanctions designed to starve the Kremlin of funds for its invasion of Ukraine could deal a blow to Russia’s economy. “The illegitimate restrictions imposed on the Russian economy may indeed have a negative impact on it in the medium term,” Putin said in televised remarks Wednesday reported by state news agency TASS. It is a rare admission by the Russian leader, who has repeatedly insisted that Russia’s economy remains resilient and that sanctions have hurt Western countries by driving up inflation and energy prices. Putin said Russia’s economy had been growing since July, thanks in part to stronger ties with “countries of the East and South,” likely referring to China and some African countries. Russia’s economy has showed surprising resilience to unprecedented sanctions imposed by the West, including an EU ban on most imports of oil products.

☆ Xi and Putin share a deep resentment of the US, but China's new dominance over Russia could eventually shatter the alliance
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Russia and China have formed closer ties to counter the power of the US. But China is the dominant one in the partnership, with Russia weakened by the Ukraine war. At last week's summit, Xi proposed a peace plan in Ukraine that critics said mainly reflected Russian demands. Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023. But despite such tensions, the Russia-China alliance will likely persist because of the deep resentment Putin and Xi share over the US' status as the world's top superpower.

☆ Putin snubbed Xi back after their one-sided summit with a nuclear announcement that directly undermines China
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Putin 'humiliated' China's Xi Jinping a week after their summit, a former US ambassador said. Putin and Xi strengthened their alliance at a summit in Moscow last week, but tensions remain. "Both Putin and Lukashenko humiliated Xi. Xi signalled to Russia last November that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be a red line, Politico said. At last week's summit, Putin and Xi presented a common front against the global power of the US and its allies.

☆ Russia presses along Ukraine front after reports of Bakhmut slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Mike Collett-White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

As winter turns to spring, the main question in Ukraine is how much longer Russia can sustain its offensive, and when or whether Ukraine can reverse the momentum with a counterassault. [1/5] Anti-aircraft unit serviceman of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, call sign "Chub", 34, prepares to pose for a portrait with a portable anti-aircraft missile system, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near Soledar north of Bakhmut, Ukraine March 23, 2023. The International Committee of the Red Cross said some 10,000 Ukrainian civilians, many elderly and with disabilities, were clinging on in horrific circumstances in Bakhmut and surrounding settlements. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, saying Ukraine's ties to the West were a security threat. Since then, tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians as well as soldiers on both sides have been killed.

[1/5] The logo of Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) is seen on their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 14, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard FoegerVIENNA, March 23 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is pressing Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International (RBIV.VI) to unwind its highly profitable business in Russia, five people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. One person said such a plan could include the sale or closure of its Russian bank. A Raiffeisen spokesperson said that it was examining options for its Russia business "including a carefully managed exit" and that it was "expediting" its assessment, adding that it had also reduced lending in the country. HIGH STAKESIn January, the U.S. sanctions authority launched an inquiry into Raiffeisen over its business related to Russia.

March 22 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping for a two-day summit in Moscow this week. UKRAINEPutin said Chinese proposals could be used as the basis of a peace settlement in Ukraine, but nothing emerged from the meeting to tie his hands militarily. Bottom line: The agreed summit language suits Putin's purposes, enabling him to continue fighting while saying he is open to talk peace. Bottom line: Russia is still waiting on a deal and China has powerful leverage to secure advantageous price terms. Putin said Chinese companies would be first in line to replace Western companies that have quit Russia.

☆ Xi's visit to Russia was humbling for Putin and showed how much China is dominant, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China appears to have cemented its dominance over Russia in a summit this week. China kept buying Russian oil — albeit at a hefty discount — and so helped keep the Russian economy afloat. Russia was offered no comparable stake in the far larger Chinese economy in return. The US has accused China of planning to send weapons and lethal aid to Russia to stem battlefield losses in Ukraine. China will likely seek to exert its new leverage over Russia to expand its global power, said Wyne.

☆ Economic asphyxiation puts Russia in China’s orbit
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Cut off from foreign markets by sanctions, Vladimir Putin’s government is at pains to finance budget deficits that would have been manageable in peacetime. The financial difficulties are pushing Russia further into the sphere of influence of China’s President Xi Jinping, who visits Moscow this week. Dipping into the fund, though, will push Moscow further into China’s financial orbit, Russian economist Alexandra Prokopenko has noted. In the short term, financial hope for Russia can only come from a significant increase in oil and gas prices. Trade between China and Russia increased by 34% last year as Chinese imports of oil and gas jumped 50%.

☆ Chinese leader Xi Jinping is heading to Russia to meet Vladimir Putin
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit Russia next week to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. This marks the first time that Xi will be traveling to Russia since the start of the Ukraine war. Xi's visit would mark the first time China's leader will visit Russia since Moscow launched its war on Ukraine in February 2022. Xi and Putin will discuss "deepening Russian-Chinese cooperation" between their nations, the Kremlin said in a Friday statement. Ahead of the announcement, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang called his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, on Thursday evening.

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