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New York CNN —Retailers are projecting slower growth this holiday shopping season as inflation, higher borrowing costs, and the resumption of student loan repayments cause many consumers to pull back. The government reported that strong consumer spending drove the economy to a robust 4.9% annual growth rate in the July-September quarter. Consumer confidence dropped for the third consecutive month despite the booming economy. The resumption of student loan repayments last month after a three-year pause could also impact consumer spending. “Student loan repayments will diminish the already dwindling savings among younger households,” Moody’s said in a report this week.
Persons: Matthew Shay, ” Dana Peterson, “ Consumers, , ” Moody’s, ” Shay Organizations: New, New York CNN — Retailers, National Retail Federation, , Consumer, Conference Board, Consumers Locations: New York, splurging
New York CNN —If you want to aggravate the US bond market, just remind traders how high the nation’s budget deficit is. The latest tally from the Treasury Department for the fiscal year that ended September 30 put the deficit at $1.7 trillion. All else being equal, that tends to push bond prices down, which causes yields to go higher. That suggests there are other factors that may be outweighing the effects of the war that are driving yields higher, said Snyderman. Also, since the debt ceiling was suspended in June, the Treasury has been issuing more bonds to fund government spending, pushing bond prices down.
Persons: it’s, Joe, That’s, shrugged, Lisa Shalett, Janet Yellen, Rachel Snyderman, Biden, ” Snyderman, John Lynch, Israel doesn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury Department, Treasury, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Center, CNN, , Congressional, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Fitch, Moody’s, Service, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: New York, Israel, Ukraine, Gaza, United States
DETROIT (AP) — General Motors and Jeep maker Stellantis are meeting with United Auto Workers bargainers Thursday to see if they can reach a contract agreement that mirrors a deal signed with crosstown rival Ford. Nearly 17,000 striking workers at Ford left the picket lines when the agreement was announced Wednesday night and will return to work shortly. About 57,000 Ford workers still have to vote on the tentative pact. It wasn't clear what Ford agreed to in terms of battery factories. Ford had announced plans to build two battery factories in Kentucky, one in Tennessee and another in Michigan, but the Michigan plant is now on hold.
Persons: Shawn Fain, Wheaton, “ Fain, ” Wheaton, it's, Ford, haven’t Organizations: DETROIT, , Motors, United Auto Workers, Ford, GM, Cornell University, Chevrolet, UAW, Workers, Toyota, Moody’s Investor Service Locations: Fort Wayne , Indiana, Flint , Michigan, Arlington , Texas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan
For a Biden administration committed to stopping the Israel-Hamas war from widening, the conflict could amplify the economic strains and possibly cause governments to collapse. “Let’s support Egypt," Michel told reporters afterward. One major potential setback for Egypt stemming from the latest Israel-Hamas War would be the loss of tourists seeking to explore the country's ancient pyramids and history. Tourism is one of Egypt's leading economic sectors, and along with foreign investment provides needed access to the rest of the global economy. Before the latest Israel-Hamas war, some officials had pointed to Lebanon’s rebounding tourism industry as an economic lifeline.
Persons: Joe Biden, Christopher Swift, Ajay Banga, Charles Michel, Michel, Abdel Fattah el, Sissi, Israel, , Swift, ” Swift, it's, Mubarak, Moody’s, Mirette, Mabrouk, ” Mabrouk, Paul Salem, Abby Sewell Organizations: WASHINGTON, Hamas, International Monetary Fund, European Union, reverberations, Treasury Department, European Council, el, IMF, Tourism, Associated, World Bank, U.S, Middle East Institute Locations: Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Gaza, Sudan, East, Hamas, United States, Qatar, Washington, Beirut
Inflation in the United States has unquestionably cooled after hitting 40-year highs last year. Other key inflation gauges, the more comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and the wholesale-focused Producer Price Index, have moderated as well. A spike in gas prices and other components such as persistently high shelter costs have kept inflation elevated. The locally owned Walnut Group restaurant company closed its venerable Mediterranean Restaurant (fondly called The Med), the French bistro Brasserie Ten Ten and the newer Italian entrant Via Perla. Courtesy Tim Romano PhotographyAlthough Brasserie Ten Ten had a nearly two-decade run before its closure, it was like starting a brand new restaurant, Hessel said.
Persons: Marlon Pando, White Lotus, Tony Hessel, he’s, Jerome Powell, Brandon Bell, , , Lydia Boussour, United States —, Pando, , Price, Frederic J . Brown, Mark Zandi, Chase Castor, hadn’t, Holly Wade, Peggy Romano, Romano, Brasserie, Tim Romano, Hessel, ” Hessel, you’ve, it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Disney, Mexican Grill, White, Getty, Moody’s, National Federation of Independent, Washington Post, NFIB Research, shocker, Walnut Group, Via Perla Locations: Minneapolis, New Jersey, Boulder , Colorado, United States, Mexican, Austin , Texas, Alhambra , California, AFP, Marion , Kansas, , Walnut
The BlueTriton bottling plant in Poland Spring, Maine, this month. Water Clashes NationwideBlueTriton finds itself pitted against local water boards, environmentalists and other groups across the country. Aquifers Water bottling facility BlueTriton facility Aquifers Water bottling facility BlueTriton facility Aquifers Water bottling facility BlueTriton facility Water bottling facility Aquifers BlueTriton facility Water bottling facility Aquifers BlueTriton facility Water bottling facility Aquifers BlueTriton facility Sources: U.S. Geological Survey; Continental U.S. aquifer map data from GebreEgziabher, Jasechko and Perrone, Nature Communications (2022) Mira Rojanasakul/The New York TimesIn California, BlueTriton has publicly criticized and vowed to fight a cease-and-desist order issued by the state’s water board to stop diverting millions of gallons of water from a spring in San Bernardino County. Poland Spring water was first packaged as a local elixir in the mid-1800s. The original Poland Spring water source.
Persons: BlueTriton, , Elizabeth M, Frazier, haven’t, Christopher Kessler, Bottlers, Ms, Frazier didn’t, Anthony Moffa, Mark Lawrence, Lawrence, Mira Rojanasakul, State Legislature’s, Margaret M, , John Mullaney, Roger Crouse, Cheryl Dieter, Metropoulos, Nestlé, John McGowan, Natalie DiPentino, DiPentino, Poland Spring, BlueTriton’s Organizations: The New York Times, Times, Democratic, Energy, Utilities, Technology, Maine State House, , Industries, University of Maine School of Law ., Democrat, Water, . Geological Survey, Continental, Nature Communications, New York Times, State, Poland, U.S, Geological, Water Science, Industry, Maine Water Utilities Association, United States Geological Survey, Rock Capital Partners, Metropoulos, Moody’s Investors Service Locations: Maine, Poland, Poland Spring , Maine, South Portland, Michigan, Colorado, Augusta, In Colorado, Arkansas, United States, Continental U.S, GebreEgziabher, California, San Bernardino County, In Michigan, Lincoln, Lincoln , Maine, New York, BlueTriton’s Poland, Chaffee County , Colorado
Two key indicators with with spooky significance
  + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
As in 5% yield on the 10-year T-bill, and 8% interest on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The 10-year Treasury yield, which goes up as prices fall, is flirting with 5% for the first time since 2007 (that’s ominous comparison No. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is barreling toward 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Because:In addition to painfully high interest rates, prices on the homes themselves have soared. “Unfortunately, the upward shift in Treasury yields this week will likely make returning to ‘normal’ an even more challenging target to hit,” Walden said.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Nicole Goodkind, Sellers don’t, Anna Bahney, Andy Walden, ” Walden, , Jerome Powell, you’ll Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, econ, Treasury, US Treasury, ICE Mortgage Technology, ICE Locations: New York, Econ
The central bank also doesn’t have any incentive to restrict the economy through elevated interest rates if inflation is already under control. The US central bank has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 to their highest level in 22 years. The US Commerce Department reports new home sales in September. The US Commerce Department reports third-quarter gross domestic product along with September figures on new durable-goods orders. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended October 21.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Gregory Daco, ” Diane Swonk, Donald Trump, Colin Kaepernick’s, Bud Light’s, Elliott Gotkine, , Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, , Satya Nadella, ” Sundar Pichai, ​ ​, Sherwin, Williams, Clark, General, Hess, Rowe Price Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, The Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, KPMG, BlackRock, America, Nike, Yale School of Management, Microsoft, ” Disney, Sonnenfeld, Tottenham Hotspur, Whirlpool, Verizon, General Electric, Barclays, 3M, General Motors, Spotify, Quest Diagnostics, Mobile, Boeing, General Dynamics, Old Dominion, Hilton, Meta, IBM, US Commerce Department, Mastercard, Merck, Comcast, UPS, Myers Squibb, Northrop Grumman, Valero, The Hershey Company, Amazon, Intel, European Central Bank, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate, Palmolive, Phillips, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, EY, Israel, United States, United Kingdom, London, Gaza, Kimberly, Haliburton, Old, Bristol, AbbVie
That has concentrated the pool of recruits around people who make up the bulk of Israel’s entrepreneurial economic activity. Two credit ratings agencies this week warned that Israel’s debt could be downgraded. The Bank of Israel has about $200 billion in foreign exchange reserves — close to 40 percent of the country’s gross domestic product — which its governor, Amir Yaron, told I.M.F. and World Bank officials in a video call on Sunday provided ample capacity to support the economy. Since the conflict, the central bank has earmarked $30 billion in foreign exchange to support the shekel, which has fallen to an eight-year low.
Persons: , Ben, David, Moody’s, Fitch, Israel’s, Israel, Goldman Sachs, Amir Yaron, I.M.F Organizations: Bank of Israel, World Bank
One of the most important interest rates in the world this week flirted with a level it hadn’t reached in more than 16 years, putting pressure on the economy and the stock market. The 10-year Treasury yield, a measure of how much it costs the U.S. government to borrow that is widely used as a benchmark for all types of lending, brushed against 5 percent for the first time since mid-2007. The steep rise in the 10-year yield in recent months has captured the attention of investors, economists and policymakers. This “sudden, rapid increase” has shaken faith in the continued resilience of the economy, said economists at the rating agency Moody’s, threatening “to knock the U.S. economic expansion off course.”The Federal Reserve controls short-term interest rates, which ripple through the economy via market-based rates like Treasury yields and to borrowing costs on longer-term debt like mortgages and company bonds.
Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. should see economic growth start to slow toward end of this year, says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the possibility of interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's next moves and the current economic picture.
Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal
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LONDON (Reuters) - Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, is reassessing the cost structure at its mine projects, its chairman said on Friday, given recent overruns. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, is seen at their headquarters in downtown Santiago, Chile March 29, 2018. The company, which has some of the highest input costs for miners in Chile, said in July direct production costs during the first six months of the year jumped 41.3% to hit about $2.12 per pound, from $1.506 the year before. In response, Codelco said it had a solid financial position and broad access to financial markets. The South American country has the world’s largest lithium reserves.
Persons: Codelco, Ivan Alvarado, Maximo Pacheco, Pacheco, ” Pacheco, Alejandro Rivera, Rivera’s, Rodrigues, Blaine J, Maximo Pacheco’s Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, London Metal Exchange, for Copper, Mining Studies, Moody’s Investor Services Locations: Santiago, Chile, London, China
London CNN —Union members have voted to restart industrial action at Chevron’s liquefied natural gas facilities in Australia, threatening renewed strikes that could disrupt about 7% of global LNG supply. In the past days, the Offshore Alliance had been working with Chevron (CVX) to finalize the agreements, the alliance said in the statement. In Europe, the threat of strikes in Australia had caused a series of spikes in natural gas prices since August. “Persistently high and volatile gas prices will erode European competitiveness, [which is] a longer-term risk,” the credit rating agency wrote. “Gas prices will remain higher in Europe than elsewhere, making energy-intensive sectors like chemicals less competitive.”
Persons: Brad Gandy, , Wheatstone, Daniel Toleman, Wood Mackenzie, “ It’s, , Alex Froley, Russia —, Moody’s Organizations: London CNN — Union, Offshore Alliance, Chevron, Commission, Enterprise, CNN, Fair, ” Workers Locations: Australia, Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Norway, LNG, United States, Qatar, Moscow
Why Wall Street investors are freaking out
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Here’s why investors are freaking out:Rates and the Fed: A surge in corporate debt sales and rising bond yields have sent stocks lower. Moody’s, the only major credit rating firm to keep a perfect score for the United States, has warned that a government shutdown would be “credit negative” for the United States. Geopolitical risks are still elevated as Russia’s war on Ukraine continues and relations between the United States and China remain tense. October also marks the end of the fiscal year for many mutual funds in the United States. Statistical evidence doesn’t quite support the phenomenon, but the level of superstitious caution on Wall Street is real.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, , Michael Reinking, Mark Twain, ” Sam Bankman, Sam Bankman, Allison Morrow, Judge Lewis Kaplan, , ” Kaplan, SFB, SBF, Caroline Ellison, Bernie Madoff, Chris Isidore, Vanessa Yurkevich Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow, Federal Reserve, Fed, Markets, Republicans, , Prosecutors, GM, Ford, Motors, United Auto Workers, Michigan Assembly, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, UAW Locations: New York, America’s Congress, United States, Ukraine, China, Manhattan, Fairfax, Kansas City , Kansas, Toledo, Lockport, Michigan, Wayne , Michigan, Kokomo , Indiana
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLayoffs remain very low which is not consistent with a recession, says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk bond yields, today's JOLTS data, the economy-at-large, and more.
Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi
McCarthy’s ouster could hurt the US economy
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Squabbles on the Hill have consequences, and the latest may lead to another credit downgrade that could seriously damage the US economy. Then over the weekend the government narrowly avoided a shutdown thanks to a deal Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy forged with Democrats. The back storyThe first time US debt was downgraded by another major credit rating agency, S&P, came in 2011. A Moody’s downgrade could cause yields on Treasury notes to spike even higher, underscoring the increased risks associated with holding US debt. That would add to the pressures the US economy is facing and it could even raise the likelihood of a recession.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Kevin McCarthy, Matt Gaetz, McCarthy, Fitch, Moody’s, ” Moody’s, , Dow Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Washington, Republican, Florida Rep, Moody’s Investors Service, AAA, AA, US Treasury, Nasdaq Locations: New York
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. narrowly dodged its fourth partial government shutdown in a decade on Sunday, but the past week exposed the depths of political dysfunction in Washington and particularly within the splintered House Republican caucus. “The dysfunction caucus at work,” Republican Representative Don Bacon told reporters earlier this month, after hardliners blocked consideration of a defense appropriations bill that finally passed on Thursday. He’s a charlatan,” Representative Mike Lawler, a centrist Republican from New York, said of Gaetz after the failed Republican stopgap vote. There are a lot of personalities at play here, and multiple strategic objectives,” Republican Representative Kat Cammack told reporters. “There’s this sort of strange woulda-coulda-shoulda -- appropriations should have just moved faster,” said Republican Representative Dan Crenshaw.
Persons: Ken Cedeno, Kevin McCarthy, Donald Trump, , Sarah Binder, McCarthy, Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Trump’s, Moody’s, Earl Blumenauer, , Don Bacon, Monica De La, Matt Gaetz, “ He’s, He’s, Mike Lawler, Gaetz, , Kat Cammack, Chuck Schumer, Rosa DeLauro, Dan Crenshaw Organizations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Republican, Capitol, REUTERS, Brookings Institution, Democratic, Senate, Aaa, ” Democratic, Republicans, Biden, Republican Party, Reuters, Trump Locations: Washington, Washington , U.S, House, United States, Monica De La Cruz of Texas, New York
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill late on Saturday with overwhelming Democratic support after Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy backed down from an earlier demand by his party’s hardliners for a partisan bill. That move marked a profound shift from earlier in the week, when a shutdown looked all but inevitable. Congress typically passes stopgap spending bills to buy more time to negotiate the detailed legislation that sets funding for federal programs. House Republicans are demanding a further $120 billion in cuts. “House Republicans tried to walk away from that deal by demanding drastic cuts that would have been devastating for millions of Americans.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, McCarthy, , , Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Donald Trump, Don Beyer, Republicans ’, Republican Mitch McConnell, Michael Bennett, Chris Van Hollen, ” McCarthy, , Biden, ” Biden Organizations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Congress, Democratic, Republican, National Parks, WIN, Extreme MAGA Republicans, Republicans, Ukraine, Senate, creditworthiness, Social Security, Locations: National, Ukraine
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill late on Saturday with overwhelming Democratic support after Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy backed down from an earlier demand by his party’s hardliners for a partisan bill. That move marked a profound shift from earlier in the week, when a shutdown looked all but inevitable. Congress typically passes stopgap spending bills to buy more time to negotiate the detailed legislation that sets funding for federal programs. House Republicans are demanding a further $120 billion in cuts. “House Republicans tried to walk away from that deal by demanding drastic cuts that would have been devastating for millions of Americans.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, McCarthy, , , Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Donald Trump, Don Beyer, Republicans ’, Republican Mitch McConnell, Michael Bennett, Chris Van Hollen, ” McCarthy, , Biden, ” Biden Organizations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Congress, Democratic, Republican, National Parks, WIN, Extreme MAGA Republicans, Republicans, Ukraine, Senate, creditworthiness, Social Security, Locations: National, Ukraine
On the other side of the Capitol, the Democratic-controlled Senate is due to advance a stopgap funding bill, but a final vote might not come for days. Congress typically passes stopgap spending bills to buy more time to negotiate the detailed legislation that sets funding for federal programs. The Senate is due to hold a procedural vote at 1:00 p.m. (1700 GMT) to extend government funding through Nov. 17. Even if that passes, the two chambers would have to resolve their differences before sending any bill to Biden’s desk. That could pose another hurdle, as McCarthy said he opposed $6 billion in Ukraine aid included in the Senate bill.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Joe Biden, Jimmy Carter’s, , Nicole Malliotakis, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, Organizations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Congress, REUTERS, Capitol, Democratic, creditworthiness, Republicans, Democrats Locations: United States, Atlanta, New York, Ukraine
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a stopgap funding bill, Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy said on Saturday, just hours before the federal government is due to begin its fourth partial shutdown in a decade. The maneuver will require Democratic votes, a fact that will anger some party hardliners who had wanted to pass a bill without Democratic support. House Republican lawmakers just Friday had blocked their own CR, which included multiple conservative policy additions that Democrats opposed. Those measures will not factor in the new bill, which would extend funding for 45 days. Congress typically passes stopgap spending bills to buy more time to negotiate the detailed legislation that sets funding for federal programs.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Ken Cedeno, Joe Biden, , ” McCarthy, Nicole Malliotakis Organizations: WASHINGTON, U.S . House, Republican, REUTERS, Democratic, House Republican, Senate, creditworthiness, Republicans, Democrats Locations: United States, New York
Against this precarious backdrop, Washington is on the verge of a messy shutdown of the federal government. A shutdown probably won’t wreck the economy, especially if it’s short. And if it a shutdown lasts long enough, it could, along with these other headwinds, do some real damage. The US Travel Association estimates the domestic travel economy would lose as much as $140 million a day from a government shutdown. “Uncertainty regarding federal operations will likely persist for the next few months.”Given all the other obstacles facing the economy, chaos in Washington is the last thing the economy needs.
Persons: New York CNN —, , Greg Valliere, Joe Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, , Uncle Sam, Mark Zandi, don’t, ” Zandi, AGF’s, , ” Moody’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, UAW, Big Three, Federal, Federal Reserve, AGF Investments, RSM, American Federation of Government Employees, TSA, US Travel Association, Companies, Moody’s, AAA, Goldman Locations: New York, Washington, United States
However, consumer spending, America’s economic engine, was revised much lower, to a 0.8% annualized rate, according to data released Thursday. Spending in the second quarter grew at its weakest pace since the first quarter of 2022, when it was flat. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. The second quarter stretches from April through June, but the Commerce Department releases consumer spending figures on a monthly basis. In July, consumer spending jumped a robust 0.8%, the strongest monthly gain since January, as shoppers spent on concerts, films, toys and recreational equipment.
Persons: , Claire Li, Gregory Daco Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce, Commerce Department, Moody’s Investors, Moody’s Investors Service Locations: Washington, EY
CNN —As momentum shifts toward clean energy, coal has had some unexpected staying power. A new report by the International Energy Agency found that global coal demand hit an all-time high in 2022 amid the energy crisis, eclipsing the previous record set in 2013. For example, Panasonic built a new electric vehicle plant in Kansas to aid its transition to clean energy. Why it matters: Coal, the highest carbon emitting and dirtiest energy source, is the single biggest contributor to human-created climate change. The Hollywood writers’ strike is overThe Hollywood writers’ strike is finally over after 148 days.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, , Dow tumbles, It’s, Stocks, Krystal Hur, , Bill Adams, Moody’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Commodities, Bloomberg, International Energy Agency, IEA, Panasonic, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Comerica Bank, Government, Fitch, Hollywood, Writers Guild of America, WGA, SAG Locations: Ukraine, Europe, United States, Kansas
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