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Treasury yields rise as attention shifts to jobs data
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over two basis points to 3.8056%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.6539% after rising by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Thursday as investors looked to the latest labor market insights and considered the state of the economy. Investors assessed the state of the economy as attention turned to the latest jobs data. Figures from ADP on Wednesday showed that private payrolls grew by more than expected in September, with private companies adding 143,000 jobs.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Investors, U.S . Labor, Federal Reserve
That's led the market to assume rates will fall to pre-pandemic lows, BofA's Bernard Mensah says. Yet, inflationary risks will likely keep rates elevated, Mensah says. Before the pandemic, in the decade following the Great Financial Crisis, interest rates remained at historical lows. Despite the Fed's apparent confidence that pricing pressures have eased, Mensah says a variety of inflationary risks will keep interest rates higher. Other analysts have also pointed to inflation risks from geopolitical conflicts.
Persons: That's, BofA's Bernard Mensah, Mensah, , Bank of America's Bernard Mensah, Rowe Price, Tomasz Wieladek Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America's, Bloomberg Locations: US, China, England, Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, Mexico
US stocks closed higher on Wednesday as traders looked to coming economic data. The September jobs report, a key data point for the next rate move, is due out Friday. AdvertisementUS stocks ended slightly higher on Wednesday as traders anticipated key economic data in the US and looked past simmering tensions in the Middle East. Markets are also taking in positive jobs data, with the private sector adding 143,000 jobs last month, according to ADP. The latter will serve as a key data point when central bankers decide how much further to cut interest rates.
Persons: Traders, , José Torres, Torres, tomorrow's Organizations: Service, Investors, Interactive Brokers, ADP, Here's Locations: Iran, Israel
Key data prints are hovering in recession territory, Megan Horneman said. "I think investors got a little ahead of themselves," she said. This over-enthusiasm could cost the market heavily, pushing stocks toward a 7% to 10% drop, the chief investment officer said. "I think investors got a little ahead of themselves as far as the what strength there is in the economy," she told Yahoo Finance. Still, these data prints have taken a backseat to labor data, which holds the spotlight on Wall Street.
Persons: Megan Horneman, , Tim Fiore, Morgan Stanley, Horneman Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Conference Board, September's, PMI, US Federal Reserve
Private sector hiring picked up in September, indicating the labor market is holding its ground despite some signs of weakness, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. While hiring increased, the rate of pay growth took another step down. The ADP count comes two days ahead of the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show growth of 150,000, following August's disappointing showing of 142,000, of which 118,000 came from private sector hiring. While the ADP report serves as a precursor to the official count, the two can differ, sometimes by wide margins. In a speech Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized the labor market as "solid" while noting that it has "clearly cooled" over the past year.
Persons: Dow Jones, switchers, Job, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Companies, Labor, Federal Reserve
President Biden said on Tuesday that his administration will be "monitoring for any price gouging activity" that benefits foreign ocean carriers, including those on the USMX board. He also said "foreign ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic, when Longshoremen put themselves at risk to keep ports open." UBS forecast that 20% of Maersk's total volume would touch a U.S. port that would be impacted by the strike. Acting Secretary Julie Su lashed out at the idea that labor wage increases would be passed onto U.S. exporters and importers. I know they understand, just as consumers and American workers understand, that foreign companies who profit from our economy and who employ American workers and have an impact on American consumers should do the right thing, and in that battle, we are always going to stand with American workers, American businesses and American consumers."
Persons: Biden, Longshoremen, majeure, Daggett, Harold Daggett, Lars Jenson, Pete Buttigieg, Julie Su, Taft, Hartley, Buttigieg, Larry Lindsey, Su, Peter Friedmann, I've, nonfarm, Helene, switchers, they're, Jim Bianco, CNBC's, Peter Boockvar, Alan Baer, Steve Lamar, Taft Hartley, Lamar, CNBC's Jeff Cox Organizations: CMA, U.S, United States Maritime Alliance, Vespucci, Federal Reserve, Transportation, Labor, International Longshoremen's Association, UBS, Maersk, Federal Maritime Commission, ILA, Boeing, The Lindsey Group, Agriculture Transportation Coalition, Bianco Research, Bleakley Financial, USA, American Apparel and Footwear Association, Biden Administration, Locations: East, Gulf Coast, U.S, autoworkers
Great news for Club stocks Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley : The rebound in investment banking isn't over yet. We'll find out to what extent when Wells Fargo reports earnings on Oct. 11 and Morgan Stanley delivers quarterly results on Oct. 16. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance For Morgan Stanley, a resurgence in its investment banking division is crucial to our investment thesis and why we stuck with it. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date Morgan Stanley's IB business is much larger than Wells Fargo's. Wells Fargo, which has a strong wealth management franchise, is branching out to take a slice of the IB pie.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, We'll, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rebecca Brokmeier, Brokmeier, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs, underperformance, Dan Simkowitz, Jim, We've, Charlie Scharf, Jim Cramer's, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Club, Wells, Federal Reserve, Wall, P Global Market Intelligence, KPMG, Global, Fed, National Association for Business, CNBC, Morgan Stanley's IB, IB, Bloomberg News, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Nashville , Tennessee, Wells, Wells Fargo, Washington , DC
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was last up by 2 basis points at 3.766%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last less than 1 basis point higher at 3.625%. Treasury yields were last higher on Wednesday as investors weighed the state of the U.S. economy and considered the latest developments in the Middle East. Powell also said that the recent 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed should not be taken as a signal that the central bank will continue cutting rates aggressively. Treasury yields had pulled back Tuesday as investors looked to them for safety among the developments in the region.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S . Labor, Federal Reserve, Investors, Tuesday Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel, Lebanon
Despite dovish comments from Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba leading to a sharp plunge in the yen , market analysts aren't budging from their Bank of Japan policy expectations for the longer term. The yen slid to as weak as 147.15 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, after Ishiba told reporters that the current economic climate does not require an additional rate increase. The prime minister's comments marked a drastic change in tone compared with the messaging on his recent campaign trail. On Thursday morning, BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said that the central bank should continue its accommodative monetary policy for the time being. He noted that it will take a while to change the public's perception that prices will not increase significantly in the future.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, aren't budging, Ishiba, Kazuo Ueda —, Abe Shinzo's, Stefan Angrick, Angrick, Asahi Noguchi Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Bank of Japan, Liberal Democratic Party, Moody's, CNBC Locations: Bank of Japan
Ilia Yefimovich/dpa | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesMarkets are in danger of being "whipsawed" by the combination of regional conflict in the Middle East and rising unemployment in the United States, says Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center. Most Asian markets fell on Wednesday, tracking losses on Wall Street overnight, as investors fretted over rising tensions in the Middle East. A higher-than-expected unemployment rate could prompt the Fed to accelerate the easing cycle to achieve a soft landing. The unemployment rate in September is expected to come in at 4.2%, according to data of a Reuters poll on LSEG, unchanged from the August figure. The unemployment rate had jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July, a dramatic rise from the five-decade low of 3.4% in April 2023.watch now
Persons: Ilia Yefimovich, Stephen Roach, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai, Hassan Nasrallah, Roach, CNBC's, Stephen Stanley, Kelvin Tay Organizations: Missiles, Getty, Yale Law, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center, Wall, Israel Defense Forces, Santander, Organization of, Petroleum, Energy Information Administration, UBS Global Wealth Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, Traders, U.S, U.S . Federal Locations: Israel, Tel Aviv, Iran, United States, Iranian, Lebanon, U.S .
BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping said Monday that no challenges can stop the country from moving forward and reiterated Beijing’s reunification aims with Taiwan. “The path ahead will definitely see challenges,” Xi said, before calling on the country to overcome uncertainties and risks. “No challenges can stop China’s progress.”The comments were translated by CNBC from a Chinese state media broadcast. Xi did not mention specific countries or trade conflicts in his Monday speech, instead portraying China as upholding globalization. In a 2019 speech commemorating the PRC’s 70th anniversary, Xi had said that no force could sway China’s development, amid festivities involving a military parade and large-scale celebrations.
Persons: Xi Jinping, ” Xi, Xi, Beijing’s, , Organizations: CNBC, Communist Party’s, Macao —, People’s Bank of, Ministry of Finance Locations: BEIJING, Taiwan, People’s Republic of China, Beijing, China, U.S, Europe, Greater China, Hong Kong, Macao, People’s Bank of China
The final three-month stretch of 2024 is here, and Wall Street is riding high. RBC head of derivatives strategy Amy Wu Silverman noted her clients are bracing for "3 standard-deviation drawdowns" in coming weeks. The VVIX gauges the volatility of the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) itself — seen by many as Wall Street's preferred measurement of how much investor fear is in the market. That … is a very different narrative from the first six months of this year," Wu Silverman added. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, Pivotal Research Group initiated analyst coverage of Alphabet , the parent of Google and YouTube, with a buy rating.
Persons: Ryan Detrick, Dow, Amy Wu Silverman, Wu Silverman, CNBC's, Wall, GOOG, Jeffrey Wlodarczak Organizations: Investment, Carson Group, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNBC, RBC, Research Group, Google, YouTube Locations: China
Euro zone inflation fell to 1.8% in September, coming in below the European Central Bank's 2% target, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Tuesday. The reading was in line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, after annual inflation hit a three-year-low of 2.2% in August. The core inflation rate, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, came in at 2.7%. The figures come after September inflation eased below the 2% European Central Bank target in several key euro zone economies, including France and Germany. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Monday said that policymakers were becoming more confident about inflation returning to the 2% target.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: Central, Reuters, Central Bank, European Central Bank, European Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs Locations: A Coruna, Spain, France, Germany
Before we get started, it's important to point out that I believe that broader equity markets remain in a secular bull market with global central banks' easing monetary policy amid a backdrop of a boom in artificial intelligence that carries equity markets significantly higher in coming quarters. But the key in my opinion was that real interest rates were going higher. The way I'm defining 'real interest rates' is the prevailing nominal yield on a bond, the 10-year Treasury in this example, adjusted by the expected 10-year inflation level. Put simply, real interest rates are how much you actually earn on a fixed income investment after adjusting for inflation. So my outlook is that gold will continue to rally alongside equity markets.
Persons: let's, Todd Gordon, Gordon, HMY Organizations: Harmony, Equity, Treasury, Stock, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: South
A major Wall Street strategist is jumping aboard the story that materials stocks could be at the start of a big rally. That theory played out during last week's rally for Chinese stocks. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) rose 3% last week, though it was down a bit on Monday and Tuesday. XLB 1M mountain This materials fund is up since the Chinese stock rally began. Bank of America isn't the only Wall Street shop that's bullish on materials given the change in China.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Sherwin, Subramanian, Roth MKM's JC O'Hara Organizations: Bank of America, Linde Locations: China, Freeport, McMoRan
South Korea's export growth slows as external demand moderates
  + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
South Korea's export growth slowed in September, with shipments to the United States barely increasing, in an outcome that may support market expectations for an easing of monetary policy as early as next week. South Korea's export growth slowed in September, with shipments to the United States barely increasing, in an outcome that may support market expectations for an easing of monetary policy as early as next week. Exports increased 7.5% in September from a year ago, decelerating from an 11.2% rise in the previous month, the customs service agency reported on Tuesday. The result, which beat the 6.5% consensus estimate from analysts, was driven by slower shipments growth of 3.4% to the United States in September after increasing 11% in August.
Locations: United States
Morgan Stanley says that Chinese stocks could enjoy a more "sustained rally" in the next phase — beyond a near-term jump — as they ride on the wave of stimulus measures and signals announced last week. They predict at least a 10% rally in the near term , and even more ahead. Against that backdrop, the bank indicated its preference for certain stocks that are set to benefit from easing measures. Stock screens Morgan Stanley did a few stock screens to sieve out those set to benefit. Morgan Stanley says it expected a supplementary budget to be announced in late October, supporting consumption and local government financing.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Evelyn Cheng Locations: Hong Kong, China
Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — The rocket higher in Chinese stocks so far looks different from the market bubble in 2015, analysts said. Major mainland China stock indexes surged by more than 8% Monday, extending a winning streak on the back of stimulus hopes. Stock market leverage by percentage and value were far higher in 2015 than data for Monday showed, according to Wind Information. He added that there are market risks from how unprepared the stock trading system was for the surge of buying. Reports indicate brokerages have been overwhelmed with new requests, echoing how individuals piled into the stock market nearly a decade earlier.
Persons: Aaron Costello, We're, Xi Jinping, Zhu Ning, Stephen Roach, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai, Costello, Peter Alexander, it's, , Alexander Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, Cambridge Associates, U.S ., greenback, U.S, CSI, People's Bank of China, Nikkei, Yale Law, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center, Ministry of Finance, Ben Advisors, Shanghai Stock Exchange Locations: Hangzhou, China, BEIJING, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Asia, MSCI, People's Republic of China, Beijing
Shigeru Ishiba, the man set to become the next leader of Japan, has made a career as a political outsider and opponent of party orthodoxy. However, some experts doubt that the former defense minister will manage to govern as such. The election ultimately came down to a runoff in which Ishiba defeated economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, who presented herself as the more Abenomics-aligned candidate. Japan's parliament is expected to formally vote Ishiba into the role Tuesday. He also reportedly suggested he would follow Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's approach of trying to pull Japan out of years of deflationary pressures.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Shinzo Abe, Abe, Tobias Harris, Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, he's, Sayuri Shirai, Takaichi, there's, Fumio, Shirai Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, Bank of, LDP, Japan Foresight, Keio University Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Abenomics
TOKYO — Japan’s incoming prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, said Monday that he will call a general election for Oct. 27 following his victory in one of the closest-ever leadership races for the governing Liberal Democratic Party. Lawmakers there will meet on Tuesday to confirm Ishiba as the country’s next prime minister. Ishiba on Monday began picking government and party officials who will contest the upcoming general election with him. Ishiba, 67, won the LDP leadership race on his fifth attempt with strong backing from rank-and-file members. Before his runoff election against Takaichi on Friday, Ishiba apologized to LDP lawmakers for his “shortcomings.”
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Ishiba, ” Ishiba, Katsunobu Kato, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Takeshi Iwaya, Gen Nakatani, Yoji, Takaichi, , Hiroshi Shiratori, Shinjiro Koizumi, Yoshihide Suga, Koizumi Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, U.S, Reuters, Media, Hosei University, Takaichi Locations: TOKYO, Tokyo
Yen steadies, dollar slips as China reaches for stimulus
  + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes and U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes are arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan. The yen slipped about 0.4% to 142.75 per dollar after jumping 1.8% on Friday. European inflation data on Tuesday and Chinese data due later on Monday are also keenly awaited. The New Zealand dollar was up 0.3% at $0.6360 after hitting its highest since December on Friday. "The trend over next year or so is for the dollar to go down," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Ishiba, Ray Attrill, Joe Capurso Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, NHK, Bank of Japan, National, New, New Zealand, U.S, U.S . Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Locations: Tokyo, Japan, National Australia, China, U.S .
Don't overlook Disney : Shares of Club name Disney have quietly put together a solid September, up about 6% in the month. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Powell, we've, Jim Cramer's, Coterra, McCormick, We'll, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Disney, Seaport Research, Seaport, Energy, Coterra Energy, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Nashville
China's factory activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month in September as the world's second-largest economy struggles to revive its growth momentum. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a reading below that level points to contraction. However, China's Caixin PMI was 49.3, compared to 50.4 in August, according to the private survey compiled by S&P Global. The Caixin data released on Monday indicated that China's manufacturing sector experienced its sharpest contraction in 14 months in September, driven by declining demand and a weakening labor market. Headwinds for the manufacturing sector has continued to mount as a prolonged economic slowdown and property crisis dampen domestic demand.
Persons: Zhao Qinghe, Xi Jinping Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Reuters, NBS, P Global, National Bureau, Statistics, People's Bank of China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe 'buy Japan' story isn't coming to an end yet, Monex Group's Jesper Koll saysJesper Koll, expert director at Monex Group, says that's because it's "driven by corporate action. It's not by monetary policy, not by fiscal policy."
Persons: Monex Group's Jesper Koll, Jesper Koll Organizations: Monex Locations: Japan
The popular 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds has returned double digits annually since 1979. Inker shares the risks of the 60/40 strategy and where he's looking for opportunities. AdvertisementFor decades, the 60/40 strategy has been the gold standard of investing. As a result, the 60/40 portfolio right now is not set up to generate attractive returns. Related storiesInvesting against the grainInstead of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, Inker recommends taking a more flexible approach to different asset allocations.
Persons: Ben, , Jeremy Grantham, doesn't, they've Organizations: Service, Bloomberg
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