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Morning Bid: Will August retain July's heat?
  + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
August 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Stephen Culp, financial markets journalist. Asian stocks have closed the books on a July that ran fairly hot, and not just with respect to temperatures. On Tuesday, Australia's central bank is expected to follow in the footsteps of its global peers by hiking its policy rate by 25 basis points. Both reports should provide further clarity on the effects of the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy on the world's largest economy. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Stephen Culp, Wall, Deepa Babington Organizations: CSI, Asia Pacific, Nikkei, China PMI, Bank of Japan's, Caterpillar, Institute for Supply, Labor, Reserve Bank of, Global, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, China, Australia's, United States, India, Korea
China's youth unemployment rate may be severely skewed, a Peking University professor wrote. While official statistics for March cited a 19.7% rate, Zhang Dandan estimated it's closer to 46.5%. According to Zhang Dandan, whose findings were recently published in the financial magazine Caixin, March's youth unemployment rate could have been as much as 46.5% when accounting for 16 million non-students not actively seeking work, Reuters reported. This is more than double that month's official 19.7% rate, as published by the National Bureau of Statistics. To be sure, the US Labor Department's unemployment rate doesn't include Americans who have stopped looking for work.
Persons: Zhang Dandan, COVID Organizations: Peking University, Service, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, US Labor Locations: Wall, Silicon
Summary Consumer confidence index increases to 117.0 in JulyLabor market differential rises to 37.2 from 32.5 in JuneHouse prices continue upward trend in MayWASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence increased to a two-year high in July amid a persistently tight labor market and receding inflation, bolstering the economy's prospects in the near term. That supports economists' views that consumer spending was flattening out after rising at its fastest pace in two years in the first quarter. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index increased to 117 this month, the highest reading since July 2021, from 110.1 in June. TIGHT LABOR MARKETThe survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, increased to 37.2 this month from 32.8 in June, a sign labor market conditions remain tight despite job growth slowing. And while more households planned to buy houses, they could run into affordability challenges as tight supply pushes up prices.
Persons: Robert Frick, Dana Peterson, Lisa Sturtevant, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Conference, Federal Reserve, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union, The, Reuters, University of, Conference Board's, Fed, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bright MLS, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Vienna , Virginia, U.S
Data for May was revised to show import prices declining 0.4% instead of the previously reported 0.6%. Though consumer inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, the pace of increase has slowed sharply since peaking in June 2022, giving consumers some relief. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ANCHOREDThough the survey's inflation expectations increased this month, that was probably because most consumers were interviewed before the release of June's consumer price index report. "Import prices are subtracting from the pernicious trend of the goods inflation Americans have been paying." There were decreases in the cost of nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials as well as food, which canceled out rises in prices for capital goods, consumer goods and motor vehicles.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Joanne Hsu, Shannon Seery, Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, LPL Financial, Reuters, University of Michigan, University of Michigan's, Consumers, Treasury, Labor, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Charlotte , North Carolina, Wells, New York, United States, China
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Stocks rise on inflation data Stick with Disney Watch Meta 1. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Walt Disney, Bob Iger, Jim, Cowen, Mark Zuckerberg's, , TD Cowen, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Disney Watch, U.S . Labor, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Disney, Inc, Meta
But it could begin to undercut arguments for more hikes beyond that, and may shift the Fed's relentlessly hawkish tone. That ratio has dropped as the Fed's rate hikes have slowed labor market demand, and in May hit its lowest level since November 2021 at around 1.6-to-1. If June's auto sales data is any indication, though, a marked slowdown does not appear imminent. Last month's annualized sales rate came in at nearly 15.7 million vehicles, well above industry-watcher estimates. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsBANK DATA: Released every Thursday and FridayTo some degree the Fed wants credit to become more expensive and less available.
Persons: Jerome Powell, delinquencies, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Labor, Survey, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S
July 12 (Reuters) - U.S. economic activity increased slightly in recent weeks, with slow growth seen continuing in coming months, according to a Federal Reserve report published on Wednesday that also offered further indications of abating inflation pressures. "Overall economic expectations for the coming months generally continued to call for slow growth," the Fed said. Meanwhile, the report largely dovetailed with other recent data suggesting upward pressure on prices was softening. Credit standards tightened for all loan types, and loan spreads continued to narrow." Data since the June 13-14 meeting have shown an economy still growing despite expectations that the 5 percentage points of Fed rate increases over the last year or so would tip it into recession.
Persons: Price, Dan Burns, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Richmond Fed, New York Fed, San Francisco Fed, Employers, Labor, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Stick with Salesforce Club holding Salesforce (CRM) is a big winner Tuesday, soaring more than 3% in midday trading, to $219.75 a share. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Wells, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, CPI, Labor, Federal Reserve, Fed, Salesforce Club, ISI, Tactical, Web Services Locations: , Wells Fargo
FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,925.49 per ounce by 0104 GMT. * An increasing number of countries are repatriating gold reserves as protection against the sort of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, according to an Invesco survey of central bank and sovereign wealth funds published on Monday. * SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.3% on Friday. * Data on Friday showed COMEX gold speculators raised net long position by 12,733 contracts to 99,205 in week ended July 3. * In other precious metals, spot silver gained 0.1% to $23.09, platinum added 0.4% to $911.40, and palladium climbed 0.2% to $1,246.86.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Swati Verma, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: Labor, . Treasury, West, Trust, Thomson Locations: U.S, Beijing, Russia
Gold flat on doubts over U.S. rate hike trajectory
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Gold prices were little changed on Monday after U.S. jobs data last week cast doubts over the labor market's strength, prompting investors to be more skeptical of the Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory. Spot gold was steady at $1,923.62 per ounce by 0347 GMT. Data on Friday showed COMEX gold speculators raised their net long position by 12,733 contracts to 99,205 in the week ended July 3. In other precious metals, spot silver was steady at $23.05 per ounce, platinum fell 0.1% to $907.34 and palladium eased 0.4% to $1,238.86.
Persons: Nicholas Frappell Organizations: Aurum, Labor, ABC Refinery, U.S, West, Trust Locations: Munich, U.S, U.S . Federal, Russia
LONDON — European markets were slightly lower on Monday morning, as investors digest a surprisingly low Chinese inflation reading and look ahead to key U.S. data and corporate earnings later in the week. U.S. stock futures were lower in early premarket trading on Monday as investors prepared for the slate of inflation data and the start of second-quarter earnings season. U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday after the Labor Department's June jobs report showed payrolls increased less than expected, cooling down from May. The figures increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to restart interest rate hikes this month. There are no major corporate earnings or economic data releases due out of Europe on Monday.
Persons: Finance behemoths, Wells, Nonfarm Organizations: Finance, Finance behemoths BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Labor, Federal Reserve Locations: Asia, Pacific, Wells Fargo, Europe
The Black unemployment rate rose to 6.0% last month, the highest since last August, from 5.6% in May, even as the overall jobless rate ticked down a notch to 3.6%. In fact, the majority of the 239,000 person decrease in Black employment came from the people who left the labor force altogether in June, according to the report. The exact cause of the recent weakening in Black employment is not yet clear. Reuters GraphicsNonetheless, a spike in the Black unemployment rate can be a strong predictor of an impending recession, since Black workers have historically been the first to be fired during an economic downturn. Su also said the rise in Black unemployment and the decline in participation is something the Biden administration would "continue to track."
Persons: William M, Rodgers III, Louis, Rodgers, it's, Rakeen Mabud, Julie Su, Su, Biden, Safiyah Riddle, Chizu Nomiyama, Dan Burns Organizations: U.S, Labor, Labor Department, Blacks, Reuters, Louis Federal Reserve's Institute of Economic Equity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, the survey of establishments showed. Government employment remains 161,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. Leisure and hospitality employment remains 369,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. The household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived showed employment rebounding 273,000, reversing the 310,000 decline in May. Reuters Graphics"Though demand for labor remains unmatched, the labor shortages that employers sighed over a year ago have definitely subsided some," said Andrew Flowers, lead labor economist at Appcast.
Persons: Sean Snaith, payrolls, Selcuk Eren, Andrew Flowers, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve, Labor, University of Central Florida's Institute, Economic, Reuters, Manufacturing, Institute for Supply, Treasury, Companies, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Washington
Slower, still strong US job growth expected in June
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The economy needs to create 70,000-100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. A Conference Board survey last month showed consumers' perceptions of the labor market more upbeat in June relative to May. But first-time applications for unemployment benefits jumped to a 20-month high during the week that the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls count. "They are going to opt to cut hours worked, that is something we need to pay very close attention to, rather than the net gain in nonfarm payrolls." The slowdown in wage growth is being driven by the loss of high-paying technology and finance jobs among others.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Sung Won Sohn, Payrolls, Ryan Sweet, Milton Ezrati, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, U.S, Loyola Marymount University, Institute for Supply, Board, Oxford Economics, West Chester Pennsylvania, BNP, Thomson Locations: y WASHINGTON, Los Angeles, payrolls, West Chester, nonfarm, New York
US job growth slows; wage gains remain strong
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Nevertheless, the pace of job growth remains strong by historical norms and was further evidence that the economy was far from a dreaded recession. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, the survey of establishments showed. Government employment increased by 60,000, boosted by a 59,000 rise in state and local government payrolls. Government employment remains 161,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. Annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.
Persons: Sal Guatieri, Nonfarm, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve, Labor, Fed, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto
Morning Bid: Data-hit bond markets end summer lull
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
On top of that, there were signs that activity at dominant U.S. service sector firms picked up steam again last month too. Friday's release of the Labor Department's monthly national payrolls report will seal the picture. U.S. Treasury yields hit 16-year highs above 5%, German equivalents hit their highest in 15 years and British gilt yields scaled 2008 peaks. The VIX (.VIX) gauge of implied Wall St volatility - which had been peculiarly subdued right through last month - jumped to its highest since June 1. Crucially, 2-year Treasury yields edged back below 5%.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Lorie Logan, payrolls, HSI, Janet Yellen's, Elon, Lorrie Logan, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Emelia Sithole Organizations: readouts, Federal, Labor, Dallas Fed, Fed, Treasury, Nikkei, Twitter, Meta, Dallas Federal, Central Bank, Bank of England, NATO, Vilnius Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, China, Canada, New York, Vilnius Reuters
Stocks fell on Thursday as investors braced for tighter monetary policy from the Fed. Traders anticipate more rate hikes after ADP jobs data came in hot. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 4%, and the 2-year yield hit the highest level since 2007. That could spell trouble for stocks, as Fed officials have cited an overly hot jobs market as a reason why interest rates could stay elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 4%, and the 2-year yield hit 5.120%, the highest since 2007, as markets braced for a higher-for-longer interest rate regime.
Persons: Stocks, Organizations: Fed, Traders, Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve, Labor, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Here's
Gold flat as investors await U.S. data for rate cues
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold was flat on Thursday as investors awaited a raft of U.S. economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, after minutes of its June meeting reaffirmed expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer. Spot gold held its ground at $1,917.46 per ounce by 0459 GMT, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,924.10. Therefore, a series of labor market data will be on watch, but much will still revolve around a continued moderation in wage pressures, he added. Rising U.S. interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Persons: Gold, Jun Rong, Wang Tao, Janet Yellen's Organizations: Aurum, IG, Traders, Investors, U.S . Labor, Labor, Survey, Treasury Locations: U.S, Janet Yellen's Beijing
Morning Bid: Markets labor on China, three jobs gauges
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets have taken a hit from a deepening selloff in China as they await critical health checks on U.S. employment over the next two days. Although Fed futures pricing for the year ahead changed little overnight, two-year U.S. Treasury yields edged up closer to 5%. ADP's June take on private sector payrolls, the latest weekly jobless claims numbers and details of May job openings all hit the slate later. Consensus forecasts have ADP reporting another 228,000 jobs last month, jobless claims ticking higher last week and vacancies falling in May. Events to watch for later on Thursday:* U.S. June ADP private sector jobs report, weekly jobless claims and May JOLTS job openings data.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Janet Yellen, Goldman Sachs, restating, John Williams, Elon Musk, Lorrie Logan, Elaine Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Goldman, Federal, New York Fed, Labor Department's, Dallas Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul, British, Europe
Why the ADP Jobs Report Is Rattling Markets
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Today, it sparked a selloff. The private sector added 497,000 jobs in June. That was well above the gain of 220,000 forecast by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The ADP report has shown smaller employment gains than the Labor Department's non-farm payroll data over the past several months, said Nadia Lovell, senior U.S. equity strategist for global wealth management at UBS. The government’s jobs data for June is due tomorrow morning.
Persons: Nadia Lovell Organizations: Wall Street, Labor, UBS
Stock futures were little changed Thursday evening, as investors refocused their attention on the upcoming June payrolls report and the implications for the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures were flat. That figure far exceeded the 220,000 estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones. This week's main event for economic data looms ahead: the Labor Department's June payrolls report, which is due Friday morning. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate an increase of 240,000 positions, a cooldown from May's gain of 339,000 jobs.
Persons: Levi Strauss, Dow Jones, Stocks, Kathy Jones, Dow Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, ADP, Treasury, Dow, Nasdaq, Labor, Traders, CME Group, Schwab Center, Financial Research
U.S. private payrolls beat expectations in June
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
WASHINGTON, July 6 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in June, indicating that the labor market remains strong despite growing risks of a recession from higher interest rates. Private payrolls jumped by 497,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 228,000. A survey last month showed consumers' perceptions of the labor market more upbeat in June relative to May. According to a Reuters survey of economists, private payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs in June.
Persons: payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: ADP, Reuters, Fed, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: U.S
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - The yen fell on Monday to near eight-month lows against the dollar as investors said intervention was in sight, while the euro weakened after a slowdown in factory activity in China and the euro zone renewed economic growth fears. The dollar edged up ahead of the July 4 holiday after U.S. economic data last week showed slightly easing inflation and consumer spending. The yen weakened 0.37% to 144.86, after it touched its lowest level against the greenback since November on Friday. Euro zone manufacturing activity contracted faster than initially thought in June as persistent policy tightening by the European Central Bank squeezed finances, a survey showed on Monday, painting an increasingly gloomy outlook for industry. "Investors have commented that the euro zone cyclical story is losing momentum, and this is why the euro should be lower," HSBC's Mackel said adding that the euro is, however, holding up relatively well.
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Paul Mackel, HSBC's Mackel, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, David Evans, Conor Humprhies Organizations: Finance, FX Research, HSBC, Japan, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, U.S, U.S . Federal, Citi, Labor, Survey, Thomson Locations: China, Japan, U.S ., U.S, United States, London, Singapore
The yen weakened 0.09% to 144.45 to start the second half of the year, having lost 9% against the dollar in the first six months of the year. Against the euro, the yen was hovering at 157.66, just under the 15-year low of 158 it touched last week. It intervened again in October after the yen plunged to a 32-year low of 151.94. Markets are pricing in a 84% chance of the Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points in its July meeting, CME FedWatch tool showed. The Australian dollar rose 0.02% to $0.667, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.42% at $0.615.
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Marc Chandler, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Cushing, Kim Coghill Organizations: Finance, Japan, Bannockburn Forex, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S . Federal, Citi, Labor, Survey, NatWest, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Bannockburn, Japan, U.S ., U.S, United States, Singapore
Yen tentative, dollar soft as traders weigh Fed rate hike path
  + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
A Chinese 100 yuan banknote, a 1 U.S. dollar bill and a 50 euro banknote are lying on a table. The yen remained hunkered just below the psychologically important barrier of 145 per U.S. dollar on Monday, while the dollar was on the back foot after U.S. economic data last week showed slightly easing inflation and consumer spending. Against the euro, the yen was hovering at 157.495, below the 15-year low of 158 it touched last week. It was at 183.47 per sterling , just below the seven-and-a-half-year low of 183.86 it hit on Friday. The Australian dollar fell 0.14% to $0.666, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.16% to $0.613
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Marc Chandler, bitcoin Organizations: Finance, Bannockburn Forex, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S . Federal, PCE, Citi, Labor, Survey, Sterling, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Japan, Bannockburn, U.S ., United States
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