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JP Morgan Asset Management sees a better 2023 for stocks, even as big Wall Street banks warn of sharp falls. "The worst of the market volatility is behind us and both stocks and bonds look increasingly attractive," JP Morgan Asset said. More interest-rate rises look limited, bringing some cheer for markets in 2023, top asset manager Janus Henderson agreed. Here's a selection of commentary and predictions from the two asset managers on 2023 investment prospects. JP Morgan Asset Management"Our base case sees a moderate recession in most major developed economies in 2023.
MUMBAI, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Foreign investors are buying into Indian financial firms, lured by the prospects of a fresh credit cycle that may boost the stocks of the country's largest lenders. The optimism is reflected in inflows, with foreign investors buying a net of $1.74 billion worth of Indian financial stocks in November, data released by the National Securities Depository Ltd this week showed. Reuters Graphics"PALATABLE" VALUATIONIndian financial stocks are trading at a premium to their historical average, but that is not necessarily the comparison investors are looking at. This has prompted local and foreign investors to pour money into the domestic equity markets, which hit all-time highs last week. The optimism comes despite financial stocks trading at a premium to their two-year historical average on a price-to-book valuation basis.
Trian calls itself a "constructivist," implying a more friendly activist investor. Trian, like most activist investors, intends to be friendly and always starts off that way, and then it is up to the company to respond. The firm is an activist investor, plain and simple. On Nov. 21, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trian Fund Management took an approximately $800 million stake in Disney. In this situation, Trian seems to be looking for a board seat and is urging Disney to make operational improvements and reduce costs.
Stocks fell on Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a robust November jobs report. But with the economy resilient, the Fed could continue to cause more pain for stocks going forward. November's jobs report, however, puts a pin the hopes of those anticipating easier policy sooner. He added: "Chairman Powell's speech earlier in the week was interpreted with a dovish lens, but that spin is likely to be reassessed based on the jobs report. Even before Friday's jobs report, some Wall Street strategists and money managers have been warning of further trouble ahead.
LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Paris' luxury-laden stock exchange is now worth more than London's. France's CAC All Shares index (.PAX) is now worth almost $3 trillion, making it Europe's largest stock market by value thanks to demand for its luxury-retailer blue chips. Reuters GraphicsFUND FLOWSSo far in 2022, funds investing in UK stocks have seen record outflows of 23 billion euros, according to Refinitiv Lipper, up from almost 18 billion euros last year and the 14.6 billion euros shed in 2016, when Britain voted to leave the European Union. Annual outflows from French equity funds are much smaller - at 2 billion euros this year. FX MATTERSIt's also worth noting that currency comes into play when measuring the size of London's market against Paris' in dollar terms.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is far too embedded in the global supply chain to be replaced easily, portfolio manager saysMike Kerley of Janus Henderson Investors discusses how recent Covid outbreaks in China might affect supply chains.
Oil stocks have been huge winners this year, thanks to the spike in crude prices…which boosted sales and profits. For now, at least, energy investors are reaping the rewards. And there are also opportunities for investors looking for a little more risk…and potential reward. Finally, investors who’ve bet against the stock market also can give thanks for this year’s volatility. PC giants Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ) also report results this week.
There may be some pain ahead for mutual fund investors in the form of capital gains taxes. "That means funds that have suffered steep falls this year could still distribute capital gains to investors," Welch said. John Hancock will pay double-digit capital gains distributions on several of its funds. Almost a dozen Nuveen funds will make 5% to 10% capital gains distributions, while twice that number of T. Rowe price funds will pay out between 4% and 21%. Passively managed funds may have distributions but they tend to be smaller than actively managed funds, Benz pointed out.
Remaking the River That Remade L.A.February 1938 was a wet month in Los Angeles. Reservoirs overflowed, dams topped out and floodwaters careered down Pacoima Wash and Tujunga Wash toward the Los Angeles River. The Los Angeles River was never a storybook river of the kind that, like the Hudson or the Seine, we associate with great cities. Among the naysayers is a venerable organization called Friends of the Los Angeles River, founded by the Texas-born poet and performance artist Lewis MacAdams. “With all the problems L.A. is facing,” he said, “even if it costs $50 billion to fix the river, we should just effing do it.”The headwaters of the Los Angeles River aren’t easy to find.
Wall Street awaits midterm vote tallies
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Republicans were favored to win control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, polls and betting markets showed earlier, though it may be hours before all vote tallies are known. read moreCOMMENTS:CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE"The race seems to be closer than expected, especially for the Senate. "That said, if the Republicans take the Senate along with the House that provides a pro-business backdrop for the market." "A Republican win will in generally be positive for equities, but inflationary risk is unlikely to be mitigated nor accelerated." IPEK OZKARDESKAYA, SENIOR ANALYST, SWISSQUOTE BANK"From an investor point of view, a Republican win in both chambers is a good outcome for the stocks.
Futures signal more losses on Fed's rate hike view
  + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
However, rate futures markets implied the odds of peak Fed funds rate climbing to 5% or higher next year compared with a prior estimate of 4.50%-4.75% rise. Focus will shift to Friday's jobs data, expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 200,000 in October. ET, Dow e-minis were down 39 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 6.5 points, or 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 28.5 points, or 0.26%. Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O) tumbled 6.9% after the chipmaker's forecast for holiday-quarter revenue fell about $2 billion short of Street estimates. Roku Inc (ROKU.O) slumped 18.8% after the streaming platform forecast holiday-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates as ad spending dries up.
Oct 26 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) is nearing a deal to sell its securitized-products group to investors Apollo Global Management (APO.N) and Pacific Investment Management Co, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal, which first reported about the development, said Credit Suisse will give details of the sale and other measures for a planned strategy change on Thursday. The consortium including Pimco, a big bond manager, and Apollo, a large alternative asset manager, beat out a group comprised of Centerbridge Partners and Martello Re Ltd., a life and reinsurance company, the WSJ report added. Credit Suisse and Pimco declined to comment, while Apollo, Centerbridge and Martello did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment. Last week, Reuters reported that money managers Janus Henderson Group (JHG.N) and investment firms including Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL.N) are weighing potential offers for the Swiss bank's U.S. asset management unit.
Oct 26 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) is nearing a deal to sell its securitized-products group to investors Apollo Global Management (APO.N) and Pacific Investment Management Co, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The consortium including Pimco, a big bond manager, and Apollo, a large alternative asset manager, beat out a group comprised of Centerbridge Partners and Martello Re Ltd., a life and reinsurance company, the Journal reported. Apollo, Pimco, Centerbridge and Martello did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment. Reuters reported last week that money managers Janus Henderson Group (JHG.N) and investment firms including Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL.N) are weighing potential offers for the Swiss bank's U.S. asset management unit. Reporting by Mehnaz Yasmin in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe owned Microsoft for years because of the resiliency of its business model, says Janus Henderson's FishDenny Fish, Janus Henderson portfolio manager, joins 'Power Lunch' to preview Microsoft and Alphabet's quarterly earnings results, why he is so optimistic the tech sector will turn around and more.
Index funds tend to be cheaper. Obviously, index provider S&P Global (SPGI) has a vested interest in promoting passive funds backed to various benchmark indexes. Even legendary investing guru Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) has extolled the virtues of index funds for average investors. He noted that just one of every four active funds beat their passive benchmarks over the ten years ending in June. That’s why some investors aren’t singing a funeral dirge for active stock picking – just yet.
Explainer: Credit Suisse in spotlight ahead of strategy shift
  + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
WHY IS CREDIT SUISSE IN THE SPOTLIGHT? A spying scandal forced then-CEO Tidjane Thiam to quit in 2020, and Switzerland's financial regulator said Credit Suisse had misled it about the scale of its surveillance. His successor Thomas Gottstein lasted until July 2022, when Credit Suisse turned to restructuring expert Ulrich Koerner as CEO and launched a second strategic review within a year. Credit Suisse is looking to sell the Savoy Hotel in central Zurich, which could be worth 400 million Swiss francs. Since its foundation in 1856, Credit Suisse has played a central role in the history and development of Switzerland.
Oct 21 (Reuters) - Money managers such as Janus Henderson Group (JHG.N) and investment firms including Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL.N) are weighing potential offers for Credit Suisse Group AG's (CSGN.S) U.S. asset management unit, people familiar with the matter said on Friday. read moreJanus and rival asset manager AllianceBernstein Holding (AB.N), and Blue Owl as well as private equity firms Centerbridge Partners and Clearlake Capital are considering bids, the sources said. Credit Suisse, Blue Owl, Clearlake, Invesco and Janus Henderson declined to comment. Janus Henderson emerged in 2017 from the combination of Janus Capital Group and Henderson Group, and Blue Owl was formed last year from the three-way merging of Owl Rock Capital Group, Dyal Capital Partners and a blank check firm. Meanwhile, both Ameriprise and Invesco have been active buyers of asset managers in recent years.
People walk through the City of London financial district during rush hour in London, Britain, October 3, 2022. Asia's main markets had struggled overnight but Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) made a 0.5% early gain as both the pound and UK government bonds rallied in London. Invesco's director of macro research Ben Jones said the UK's volatility would remain a key focus for global markets. In currency markets, the dollar remains king as investors price in U.S. rates peaking around 5%. The rise of the dollar and global bond yields have been a drag for gold, which was stuck at $1,648 an ounce .
As Truss spoke on Friday gains made in anticipation of the corporation tax U-turn faded. Ten-year gilt yields were 40 bps above session lows hit earlier on Friday, also pushed up by moves in bond yields globally. UNDERWHELMEDBritain's mini-budget three weeks ago triggered some of the biggest ever jumps in British bond yields, exposed vulnerabilities in the pensions sector -- undermining the country's financial stability. "How it impacts liquidity on the gilt market going forward is something we are monitoring closely." Rabobank's McGuire said pressure on UK assets could lead the BoE to re-intervene in the bond market or delay its quantitative tightening, bond-selling plans.
World stocks slip to near 2-yr low ahead of U.S. CPI data
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Global markets have suffered a torrid few weeks and there was little sign of respite in either Asia or Europe as weak equities knocked MSCI's 47-country world index (.MIWD00000PUS) down for a seventh straight day. It has fallen nearly 4.3% in the last six days, with markets worried that aggressive global interest rate hikes will trigger recessions. Data had already confirmed German harmonised inflation was +10.9% y/y in September but all eyes are on U.S. CPI data due at 1230 GMT. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major rivals, barely budged from around 113.25 ahead of the CPI data. "Markets still feel very dysfunctional"Meanwhile, crude oil markets remained weak following a 2% slide on Wednesday amid worries over demand.
A central narrative emerging from the U.K.'s precarious economic position is the apparent tension between a government loosening fiscal policy while the central bank tightens to try to contain sky-high inflation. Monetary policy is trying to mop-up after the milk was spilt," Turner said. Anything less, and there will likely be more turbulence for the gilt market, and the pound, in the coming weeks," he added. Following the Bank's bond market intervention, ING's economists expect a little more sterling stability, but noted that market conditions remain "febrile." She suggested the market would have benefitted from the government "blinking first" in the face of the market backlash to its policy agenda, rather than the central bank.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of England's move is unlikely to make the Fed 'blink,' says asset management firmGreg Wilensky of Janus Henderson Investors discusses the Bank of England's bond market intervention.
Citing potential risks to UK financial stability, the BoE also said it would delay the start of a programme to sell down its 838 billion pounds ($891 billion) of government bond holdings, which had been due to begin next week. "Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability," the BoE said. "This would lead to an unwarranted tightening of financing conditions and a reduction of the flow of credit to the real economy." "There are schemes running out of cash at the moment," one pensions consultant said before the BoE intervention. The BoE's intervention reduced long-dated bond yields back to their level at the end of Friday - after the initial negative reaction to Kwarteng's statement - but shorter-dated yields were still higher.
An employee is seen walking over a mosaic of pound sterling symbols set in the floor of the front hall of the Bank of England in London, in this March 25, 2008 file photograph. Yet the rapid rise in yields investors now receive for owning UK bonds hasn't helped sterling much. Pound slumps and UK borrowing costs surgePredicting the short-term direction of currencies is notoriously hard. Against the euro the pound is only at two-year lows, although it is down 3% since Friday. "People will look at the UK and think that that's not a market that is stable," said Payne at Janus Henderson.
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterSept 26 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields jumped to multi-year highs amid expectations that central banks will keep tightening their monetary policy despite recession risks and a new sell-off in British gilts. Meanwhile, the spread between Italian and German yields widened after the rightist coalition won a clear majority in Sunday's elections. Italian bond (BTP) prices are also more susceptible to shifts in interest rate expectations, given the country's vast debt burden. Giorgia Meloni looks set to become Italy's first woman prime minister at the head of its most right-wing government since World War Two. "Bond yields across Europe are correlated, and today's jump in Britain yields is again affecting the euro area," he added.
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