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Here are 10 ways to protect against losses and volatility in this long-lasting bear market. "It went beyond dodging a bullet," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said of first quarter earnings results in a late April interview with Insider. Weaker earnings raise valuation concernsBut some investors aren't impressed by Q1 earnings — at least not enough to get bullish. Besides weaker earnings growth and lofty valuations, another risk for stocks is that upcoming quarterly results will miss higher expectations in a shaky economy. "We're still looking at fairly high-single-digit earnings growth for the next couple of quarters overall," Sosnick said.
The "Shark Tank" star also said he won't accept the yuan due to lack of trust in the Chinese government. "So I don't care what form of transaction you want to do with me in Asia, I will not take Chinese yuan." "How much of an institution's money or a sovereign wealth fund would you put into the Chinese yuan? "Because it's not that I don't trust the Chinese people, I don't trust their government. So I don't care what form of transaction you want to do with me in Asia, I will not take Chinese yuan."
The Big Tech stock rally has run its course, but the broader equity market will still approach record highs this year, according to the chairman of Sanders Morris Harris. Tech stocks have surged this year, rebounding after a tough 2022. "We expect the broader markets to move back near record highs at some point in 2023, but it won't likely be because of Big Tech," George Ball told Fortune on Tuesday. Tech stocks have rallied this year, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite up nearly 14% year to date, recovering after a tough 2022. But in order to rise toward record highs, further major increases in the key stock indexes would be required, Ball suggested.
Markets are preparing for a second straight quarter of negative earnings growth. Credit SuisseMarkets are bracing for weaker profits in seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, Golub wrote. Q1 earnings revisions are more negative than usual, according to Credit Suisse. Weaker bottom-lines are also masking anticipated strength in sales growth, Credit Suisse found. Those 15 stocks are below, along with the ticker, weight of S&P 500 profits, expected earnings growth, and expected contribution to earnings growth for each.
In a recent note, Morningstar shared its top 33 undervalued stocks to buy for the second quarter. While the near term may look difficult for investors, Sekera believes that these headwinds will force the Federal Reserve to pump the brakes on its rate-hiking program sooner rather than later. Valuations-wise, small-cap firms remain the cheapest, while mid-cap and large-cap stocks respectively remain just below and above market average. In a separate note, Morningstar analysts listed their top 33 undervalued stocks for the second quarter of 2023. The full list of names is below, along with each company's ticker, sector, market capitalization, and price versus fair value estimate.
As concerns about regional banks roiled markets, investors weighed another threat: commercial real estate. Also, layered on top of the property value pressure, are the tightening credit conditions brought on by the recent turmoil in the banking sector. There is no doubt this scenario is a toxic mix for the capital-intensive real estate industry. At the moment, many experts say the real estate market isn't causing trouble for banks, but fears about the financial system are likely worsening conditions in real estate because liquidity is being reduced. The biggest concern is seeing how many other companies join Brookfield , Blackstone and Pimco in handing back the keys on office properties, Clancy said.
CNBC Daily Open: Signs of a coming storm
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "It kind of feels like the calm before the storm," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group. While it's nice to have a calm day or two, investors shouldn't ignore the warning of an impending storm. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open: Signs of a storm coming
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "It kind of feels like the calm before the storm," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group. While it's nice to have a calm day or two, investors shouldn't ignore the warning of an impending storm. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Top Wall Street strategist Marko Kolanovic said the recently rally in stocks was merely a dead cat bounce as there has been no material improvement in fundamentals. Stocks staged a swift comeback last month as investors shook off recession fears worsened by the banking crisis. The S & P 500 jumped 3.5% in March, while the Nasdaq Composite added 6.7%, notching its best quarter since 2020. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 The S & P 500 hit a 52-week low of 3,491.58 on Oct. 13. Wall Street strategists on average see the S & P 500 ending the year at 4,127, implying that stocks would stall from here, according to CNBC's Market Strategist Survey , which rounds up 15 top strategists' forecasts.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors shouldn't be 'aggressively risk-on' now, says investment management firmTaimur Hyat of PGIM instead says investors should be patient and humble for now, but there will be a range of opportunities in the next 12 months, particularly in private markets.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the US is in a rolling recession but opportunities exist in stocks still. In an interview with Bloomberg, the chief strategist explains why financials and retail look attractive. Wilson has long been bullish on the stock market, predicting that 2023 could see steep declines in equity prices. "Markets go through these periods I call a rolling bear market [or] rolling recession," Wilson told Bloomberg on Monday. The chief stock strategist, who previously sounded the alarm on the worst earnings recession since 2008, has been steadily bearish in recent months.
High cash yields shouldn't stop investors from buying stocks for the long term, according to Bank of America. "For long term investors, the S&P 500's price to normalized earnings has explained 80%+ of subsequent 10-year S&P 500 returns. That means money market funds that yield close to 5% are viable alternatives for investors, but only for short-term money. According to the note, investors' long-term holding period for stocks has fallen over time due to fixations on short-term price moves. For example, zero-day S&P 500 options now account for 45% of options volume versus less than 5% a decade ago.
UBS, the world's largest asset manager, downgraded stocks and says they have little upside now. The firm says investors shouldn't sit on the sidelines, especially in the bond market. UBS advised investors on what to buy in stocks, bonds, currencies, and alternative assets. "The bond market is pricing for a recession to start as soon as the summer," Haefele wrote, while oil prices and credit spreads also reflect substantial recession risk. Speaking of stocks, Haefele doesn't like what he sees.
Odds are, commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for the banking sector after this month's unrest. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," BofA's Michael Hartnett said. Regional banks have enormous exposure to commercial real estate loans. But this time around, it is commercial rather than residential real estate that may be in trouble. Are you worried about the impact of commercial real estate on the banking sector and the economy?
Stocks are still set to see earnings pressure, and investors shouldn't be fooled by the tech rally, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said. Previously, he predicted the worst earnings recession since 2008 to strike the market. In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday, Wilson pushed back against bullish market commentators who are championing the current rally in tech stocks. "The malinvestment was just so egregious and the overearning was even worse," he said of tech stocks' strong performance. Wilson has been bearish on stocks for months and previously sounded the alarm for the worst earnings recession since 2008 to hit the market.
But JPMorgan Private Bank's Jacob Manoukian says investors shouldn't let the noise distract them. With the recent collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank drawing comparisons to the Global Financial Crisis, the stakes have never been higher for the Federal Reserve than they were during this week's FOMC meeting. Both SVB and Signature Bank had an unusually high concentration of large deposits above the $250,000 threshold insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Takeaway #2: Say goodbye to the tech recessionBesides their deposit makeup separating them from regional banks, both SVB and Signature Bank were also highly concentrated in specific sectors. "Such companies are often (as yet) unprofitable, speculative and digitally enabled," Manoukian wrote.
Instead, she patterns her money strategy after Warren Buffett. "I'm not necessarily playing the market on a daily basis, but I come from a Warren Buffett strategy. Instead, buy stock if you believe in the company, and don't be afraid to buy more when the price falls or sell when it's high. The best part about the tactic: It alleviates some of the pressure of trying to predict the stock market, Buffett noted. "Buy stock in several companies that make products [and] services that you believe in.
If you like big banks, there's an ETF for that.
  + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Roundhill Investments launched its new Big Bank ETF (BIGB) on Tuesday in response to the banking crisis. The fund includes no regional banks but holds equally weighted positions in six institutions: Bank of America , Citigroup , Goldman Sachs , JPMorgan Chase , Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo . Comparably, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) holds a 0.35% ratio. The launch of the ETF comes as larger banks are increasingly being seen as relative safe havens in the sector, while regional bank stocks remain volatile this week. "With these sector ETFs in general, and more concentrated ETFs, you really want to make sure you want to overweight them."
The days of low interest rates that allowed growth stocks to take off are over, according to BMO. A three-year stretch of chaos in markets will soon end, according to BMO Capital Markets. Stocks have swung from feverish highs to crushing lows since the pandemic as interest rates rose from rock-bottom levels to historically high. 52 top stocks to buy nowIn the report, dozens of BMO analysts listed 52 of their favorite stocks across nine market sectors to buy this quarter. Below are the top investing ideas from BMO, along with each company's ticker, market capitalization, sector, price target, and thesis.
Before we jump into the newsletter, the Silicon Valley Bank saga is continuing to unfold, so let's quickly break down the latest. "No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer," policymakers added. The fall of SVB and Signature bank means the Fed's aggressive interest-rate hiking regime has now taken sizable casualties. A $15 billion venture capital firm had warned its startups of Silicon Valley Bank's red flags months ago. Greenoaks Capital Partners told clients in an email back in November that SVB, as well as other firms, could see problems in a high-interest-rate environment, Bloomberg reported.
The stock bubble is still in the process of deflating and the market won't bottom until 2024, Jeremy Grantham said. The legendary investor blasted the Fed's monetary policy as a 36-year-long "horror show." He foresaw mild pain in the year ahead for investors, warning of a falloff in equities around April. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. That's similar to the rallies seen prior to the burst of the dot-com bubble, when the Nasdaq Composite plunged 40% in 2001.
Here are Wednesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Canaccord initiates Bowlero as buy Canaccord said the bowling company has a "unique growth and profitability story." Bank of America reiterates Meta as buy Bank of America said Meta is well positioned for "revenue acceleration." Deutsche Bank reiterates Ulta as buy Deutsche called Ulta "resilient." Bank of America reiterates On Semiconductor as a top pick Bank of America said the semiconductor company is a top autos pick that has the "right execution." Needham reiterates Alphabet as buy Needham said investors shouldn't be concerned about any legislative risks for Alphabet.
The stock market is wildly overvalued based on current interest rates, according to JPMorgan. Interest rates have surged over the past year, with the 2-year US Treasury note yielding just over 4.8% as of Tuesday morning compared to just 1.3% a year ago. Such a swift surge in interest rates has put pressure on market valuations while at the same time exposing vulnerabilities in corporate profits. "History implies that for the current level of real rates the S&P 500 multiple is ~2.5x overvalued," Kolanovic warned. That's a marked shift from expectations of rate cuts just a few weeks ago, and could keep strong downward pressure on the stock market.
The Federal Reserve definitely won't cut interest rates this year, a top Goldman Sachs strategist said. "I would call it a soft landing as opposed to no landing," he added. But it will pull off a "soft landing" and bring inflation down without the US economy slipping into a recession, Lotfi Karoui told CNBC on Thursday. Demand for stocks typically falls as interest rates rise, as higher borrowing costs weigh on corporate finances and tend to have a negative impact on their future valuations. Goldman Sachs said Friday that it anticipates the Fed to hike interest rates three more times this year, after data released last week suggested persistent inflation pressures and continued resilience in the labor market.
Big-name investors and hedge funds made moves in Club holdings Disney (DIS), Nvidia (NVDA) and TJX Companies (TJX) in the fourth quarter. Starboard's position stood at 3.03 million shares — valued at $401.22 million — at the end of the fourth quarter, according to the firm's 13F. Inclusive's 1.63 million shares were worth $216.77 million and ValueAct's 560,221 shares carried a market value of $74.28 million. CRM YTD mountain Salesforce (CRM) YTD performance In addition to Salesforce, a number of other Club holdings appeared in hedge funds' quarterly disclosures. Some of the activists swarming at Salesforce have positions in other Club holdings and made changes to them during the fourth quarter.
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