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☆ Russia's near-mutiny just cratered its currency against the dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The near-mutiny in Russia this weekend had some unexpected consequences for currencies — more on that below. And yet — the Russian ruble still plunged 3% to a 15-month low on Monday, trading at one point near 87 per dollar. The Kremlin said there was a huge uptick in foreign currency demand across 15 regions in Russia, per Reuters. During the mutiny, Russian banks had cut their ruble exchange rates to over 100 per dollar, though they've since eased prices. What's your outlook for the Russian ruble by year-end?

Persons: Phil Rosen, You'll, Vladimir Putin, GAVRIIL, Yevgeny Prigozhin's, Wagner, Prigozhin, Andrei Belousov, Putin hasn't, Spencer Platt, Morgan Stanley, Billionaire Ron Baron, Warren, there's, Goldman Sachs, Elon, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: SPUTNIK, Getty, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Manchester United, Walgreens, Alliance Inc, Billionaire, Dow, Harvard, Bank of America, Elon Musk's Locations: New York, Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, —, Voronezh, Rostov, Lipetsk, London

Variable rate mortgages in Canada typically require borrowers to make regular payments in fixed amounts. WHAT IS THE EXTENT OF MORTGAGE AMORTIZATION EXTENSION? Both banks had no variable-rate mortgages with amortizations greater than 30 years prior to the start of rate hikes. If interest rates stay high over the next few years, as the central bank has warned, it raises questions about customers' ability to service bigger than anticipated debt at higher rates during renewals. The big banks said most customers are able to cope with higher interest rates as they had passed a rigorous stress test to handle higher interest rates.

Persons: Royce Mendes, Carolyn Rogers, OSFI, Nivedita Balu, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Denny Thomas, Conor Humphries Organizations: TORONTO, Statistics Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, CIBC, Bank of Nova, National Bank, Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson Locations: Canada, United States, Bank of Nova Scotia, amortization, Toronto, Ottawa

First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said demand for foreign currency had increased sharply in about 15 regions. "The rouble in the cash market sold off sharply on Saturday with buy/offer spreads widening out substantially," said Goldman Sachs in a note. "Should the response to the events over the weekend be additional spending, we think this would be followed by a weaker rouble." Rouble opens at 15-month low vs dollarInvestors globally were watching for ripple effects from the aborted mutiny, with some expecting a move into safe havens such as U.S. government bonds and the dollar. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 1.2% lower at 2,762.5 points.

Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin's, Andrei Belousov, Belousov, Alexey Antonov, Goldman Sachs, Rouble, Alexander Marrow, Karin Strohecker, Kim Coghill, Ed Osmond Organizations: rouble, Alor Broker, Brent, Sinara Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Russian, Russia, Rostov, Moscow, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Alor

June 26 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble hit its lowest in nearly 15 months against the dollar on Monday before paring some losses, as investors responded for the first time to an aborted mutiny by heavily armed mercenaries in Russia over the weekend. By 0727 GMT, the rouble was 0.5% weaker against the dollar at 85.15 , after hitting 87.2300 in early trade, its weakest point since late March 2022. With the rouble not trading over the weekend, Russian banks had offered exchange rates well above the official rate beyond 90 to the dollar, but those were gradually easing as tensions subsided. Rouble opens at 15-month low vs dollarInvestors globally were watching for ripple effects from the aborted mutiny, with some expecting a move into safe havens such as U.S. government bonds and the dollar. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 1% lower at 2,767.9 points.

Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin's, Alexey Antonov, Rouble, Brent, Sinara, Alexander Marrow, Kim Coghill Organizations: Sinara Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Russian, Russia, Rostov, Moscow, Alor, Washington

☆ Russian ruble briefly reaches 15-month low after Wagner rebellion
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —Russia’s currency hit its lowest level in nearly 15 months on Monday after Wagner mercenaries led a short-lived rebellion against the Kremlin over the weekend. The ruble briefly traded at around 87 per US dollar before paring back some of its losses, last trading at around 84.40 against the greenback. The ruble stayed surprisingly resilient for most of last year, buoyed by the Russian central bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes and capital controls. It almost halved in value when Russia invaded Ukraine last February, trading at over 100 rubles against the dollar. While the ruble has recovered its losses since then, its relationship to the dollar has remained volatile and is down almost 25% so far this year.

Persons: Wagner, Brent Organizations: New, New York CNN, Kremlin, greenback, Texas Intermediate, Reuters Locations: New York, Russian, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Families of Wagner mercenaries killed fighting for Putin are given $60,000 compensation – and the number of payouts may be affecting Russia's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Wagner soldiers' families receive about 5 million rubles (about $60,000) when a relative is killed. That means more than $1 billion in cash may now be in circulation, affecting Russia's economy. In an audio comment published last month by his company Concorde, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said the families received "black cash" payments. The payments for so many deaths would equal 100 billion rubles ($1.2 billion) of cash flowing into Russia's financial system. In January, the Daily Beast reported that some families had yet to receive payments from Wagner.

Persons: Wagner, Bloomberg they'd, —, Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Prigozhin, Al Jazeera, Putin Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Wagner Group, German Marshall Fund, Concorde, Central Bank, Daily Beast, Kremlin, intel Locations: Al, Ukrainian, Bakhmut, Moscow

☆ Euro holds ground on world stage despite Russia slashing use -ECB
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro kept or even increased its share of the world's foreign exchange reserves (20.5%), international debt (22%) and loans (27.6%), as well as foreign exchange turnover last year, the report said. But the rouble's usage on the SWIFT system collapsed after Russian banks were disconnected from that network, the world's largest. It cited evidence from Europe itself, where the euro has replaced the dollar as an invoicing currency in countries neighbouring the euro zone since it was launched in 1999. "International currency status should not be taken for granted," ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a statement accompanying the report. The report also showed London remained the main venue for foreign exchange trading in euros and that Britain's importance for international financial activities in euros had not changed materially since Brexit.

Persons: renminbi, SWIFT, Christine Lagarde, Fabio Panetta, Francesco Canepa, Gareth Jones, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, U.S ., European Union, London, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Russia, China, India, Brazil, Ukraine, Europe

☆ Momentum building in Iran talks with West, says source
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Mostafa Salem | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Momentum appears to be building to revive negotiations around Iran’s growing nuclear program. Talks between Iran and the European Union on Wednesday focused on key sticking points, including nuclear enrichment levels and Iranian cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, one diplomatic source briefed on the matter told CNN. “The current environment has been positive for de-escalation,” said the source, who requested anonymity citing longstanding norms around regional government communications with the media. Both Qatar and Oman have played mediating roles between Iran and Western powers in the past. Iran had demanded that South Korea release $7 billion in funds frozen in South Korean banks under US sanctions.

Persons: Enrique Mora, Ali Bagheri, ”, Mora, Kani, –, Hossein Amir, Abdollahian, “, Biden, Brett McGurk, Siamak, Emad Sharghi, Morad, Shahab Dalili, Matthew Miller, Trump Organizations: CNN, European Union, International Atomic Energy Agency, Twitter, EU, –, Iran’s, South, Oman “, IAEA Locations: Iran, Doha, Iranian, Tehran, United States, – France, Germany, United Kingdom, Oman, Qatar, American, South Korea, Korean, Iraq

☆ Russia has been using the Chinese yuan to get around sweeping Western sanctions — but this side door may be closing
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The bank made the move over fears of secondary sanctions from the West, per RBC. Russia has been using the Chinese yuan to get around Western sanctions. Russian clients can still make yuan transfers within the Bank of China network, Semyonov added to RBC. The Chinese yuan surpassed the US dollar as the most heavily traded currency in February and March, according to Bloomberg data. Semyonov told RBC that Russian yuan transfers to the US and EU make up just 3% of all transfers in the currency.

Persons: —, Russia's, Pavel Semyonov, Dmitry Lesnov, Semyonov, Finam Organizations: of, RBC, Service, The Bank of, European, Bank of China, EU, Novaya Gazeta, The, Swift, Bloomberg, Reuters Locations: of China, EU, Switzerland, Russia, The Bank of China, European Union, Modulbank, China, Novaya, Novaya Gazeta Europe, Ukraine

☆ Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Putin said he would discuss the future of the grain deal with visiting African leaders on Saturday. THE PACKAGE DEALThe United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative last July to help tackle a global food crisis worsened by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and blockade of its Black Sea ports. Under the Black Sea grain deal, more than 625,000 tonnes of grain has so far been shipped by the WFP for aid operations in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Yemen. Until the ammonia pipeline is restarted, Moscow has said it will limit the number of vessels allowed to travel to Pivdennyi port under the Black Sea grain deal. RUSSIAN GRAIN, FERTILIZER EXPORTSWhile exports of Russian wheat and some fertilisers have risen since the war, exports of Russian ammonia and potassium-based fertilizers have plummeted.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Putin, Stephane Dujarric, Linda Thomas, Greenfield, JPM.N, Daniel Wallis Organizations: United, United Nations, Food Programme, The United Nations, Democratic, Agricultural Bank, European Union, EU, JPMorgan Chase, reassurances, U.S ., African Export, Import Bank, Reuters, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Thomson Locations: Russia, Moscow, United Nations, Turkey, Ukraine, Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, United States, America, SWIFT, Russia's Togliatti, Ukraine's, Ukrainian, Ukraine's Kharkiv, East

☆ Exclusive: Canada bank regulator says lenders should urgently tackle risks from mortgage extensions
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Nivedita Balu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TORONTO, June 13 (Reuters) - Canada's financial regulator is urging lenders to tackle risks from mortgage extensions at the "earliest opportunity" as many borrowers try to navigate higher mortgage costs after the Bank of Canada's surprise rate hike last week. Canada's central bank has raised interest rates to a 22-year high of 4.75% and analysts are betting on another 25 points increase next month. The regulator had warned in April that though the short-term fix to extend mortgage payment periods helped borrowers, it would keep them in debt for longer. As the interest rate rises, the mortgage payment no longer covers the interest payment portion, which results in the mortgage balance and negative amortization. "We believe risks are still elevated with the prospect of more rate hikes adding to the headwind on mortgage renewals," Rizvanovic said.

Persons: OSFI, Royce Mendes, Mendes, Mike Rizvanovic, Rizvanovic, Nivedita Balu, Denny Thomas, Nick Zieminski Organizations: TORONTO, Bank of, Reuters, Desjardins, Bank of Canada, Bank, Thomson Locations: Toronto

☆ Russia is shifting to a total war economy as its progress in Ukraine stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is shifting to a total war economy as its invasion of Ukraine drags on and progress stalls. International relations expert Christoph Bluth pointed to toll of military spending on Russia's economy. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyRussia is shifting to a total war economy as its invasion of Ukraine takes a toll on its economy. But a longer, more intense conflict, requiring a shift to a total war economy, could be a different matter altogether," he later added. Experts have flagged pressures mounting on Moscow's financial state since Russia first began its "special military operation" in Ukraine last year.

Persons: Christoph Bluth, —, Bluth, Romir, haven't, – Organizations: Service, University of Bradford, German, Foreign Relations, Yale Locations: Russia, Ukraine

☆ Australia first-quarter business investment hits 7-year high, outlook solid
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] Pedestrians walk in front of a crane and scaffolding on a construction site in central Sydney, Australia, May 31, 2018. REUTERS/David GraySYDNEY, June 1 (Reuters) - Australian business investment rose to a seven-year high in the first quarter, helped by a jump in spending on mining, manufacturing and transport, while firms affirmed plans for solid spending in the year ahead. First-quarter investment by Australia's huge mining sector climbed 1.7%, accelerating from a rise of 0.7% in the previous quarter. The capital spending figures will feed into data on gross domestic product (GDP) due next week. Construction work done came in better-than-expected, although residential building remained soft, likely making a flat contribution to Q1 GDP growth.

Persons: David Gray SYDNEY, Sean Langcake, Stella Qiu, Jacqueline Wong, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Oxford Economics Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Russia doesn't know what to do with the $1 billion in rupees it is amassing in India each month
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's amassing $1 billion worth of Indian rupees each month that it's struggling to use. India has been buying Russian oil using rupees as Moscow has been shut out of the USD-denominated global payments system. And it's not like Russia can send the rupees back home either because India has restrictions over capital flows by foreign investors — the country is looking at $2 to $3 billion worth of rupees stuck in India every quarter. India and Russia are now trying to work out how Russia can use its mounting rupee stash. Another option under discussion is having Russia channel the rupees into Indian infrastructure projects in exchange for equity stakes, per the media outlet.

Persons: Russia's, it's, —, Sergei Lavrov, Lavrov, Moscow doesn't, Alexander Isakov, Ian Hall Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Bank of, Reuters, Treasury, Russian, Bloomberg Economics, Australian Institute of International Affairs, Griffith Asia, Griffith University, Kremlin, Affairs Locations: India, Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, —, Bank of Russia, Australia, Russian

SYDNEY, May 31 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of Australia will not sign any new contracts with PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Australia until a scandal over the firm's misuse of confidential government tax plans is sorted out, the central bank's governor said on Wednesday. The "big four" firm is on the defense after a former Australian tax partner who was consulting with the government on laws to prevent corporate tax avoidance shared confidential drafts with colleagues to drum up business around the world. As of May 16, the government had committed to contracts worth A$255 million ($173 million) with PwC in the current financial year alone, a finance department official told a parliamentary hearing last week. "(We) have taken the decision to enter no new contracts with PwC until a satisfactory response has been forthcoming," Lowe said. APRA had also spoken with major Australian banks about their ties to PwC, as recently as last week, added Lonsdale.

Persons: Philip Lowe, " Lowe, John Lonsdale, Lonsdale, Steven Kennedy, Kristin Stubbins, PwC, Lewis Jackson, Sonali Paul Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, PricewaterhouseCoopers, PwC, Prudential Regulation Authority, APRA, prudential, Thomson Locations: Australia, Australian

☆ Australian banks have shied away from investment opportunities in share market: Investment advisor
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAustralian banks have shied away from investment opportunities in share market: Investment advisorAdam Dawes of Shaw and Partners Australian banks are mainly "deposit takers" and "home loan takers," but the Commonwealth Bank of Australia is "looking to be better placed."

☆ Canadian banks see earnings risk from commercial property loans, TD in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Nivedita Balu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TORONTO, May 22 (Reuters) - Canadian banks are expected to report a rise in bad debt provisions and highlight risks from commercial property loans when they report earnings this week, with the country's No.2 bank TD (TD.TO) in focus after its acquisition of First Horizon (FHN.N) failed. Bay Street analysts have lowered their second quarter earnings expectations for Canadian banks, anticipating higher expenses and slowing loan growth as turmoil south of the border weighs on the broader banking sector. Still, investors view Canadian banks as safer bets than their U.S. counterparts due to their strong capital levels. BMO and Scotia Bank (BNS.TO) are due to report earnings on Wednesday, while TD, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO) and Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) report on Thursday. Canadian bank stocks have largely underperformed TSX Canadian bank stocks have largely underperformed TSXEmpty offices in big cities have raised concerns among investors about banks' commercial property loan exposure, since about 10% of the lending portfolio of the Big-6 banks is tied to commercial real estate.

☆ UN concerned by lack of grain ships going to one Ukrainian port
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Michelle Nichols | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Black Sea grain deal - brokered by the U.N. and Turkey last July - allows for the safe export of ammonia and Russia has been pushing for the pipeline to be restarted. Russia agreed last week for the Black Sea pact to be extended for two months. The Black Sea grain deal ground to a halt last week as Russia decided whether to continue it. He noted that no fertilizers, including ammonia, had yet been exported under the Black Sea agreement. The Kremlin said on Monday that the EU's reluctance to reconnect Russia's state agricultural bank to SWIFT showed the bloc's "non-constructive stance" on the Black Sea grain deal.

☆ Factbox: Key excerpts from G7 leaders' statement on Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Below are key extracts from the Group of Seven leaders' statement. "We will further target those operating in these key sectors, such as manufacturing, construction, and transportation as well as business services." PREVENTING CIRCUMVENTION"We will further prevent the evasion and circumvention of our measures against Russia, including targeting entities transporting material to the front." "We will further reduce reliance on civil nuclear and related goods from Russia, including working to assist countries seeking to diversify their supplies." "We will also continue efforts to reduce Russia’s revenue from metals."

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of fears for their safety in a city under Russian occupation. But there is concern in the international community that the six-reactor nuclear plant, Europe's largest, could be caught up in fighting, particularly as military analysts expect Ukraine to try to push Russian forces back in Zaporizhzhia region. In April, Japan contributed 2 million euros to the U.N.'s watchdog to help its effort to secure the safety of Zaporizhzhia power plant. Kotin said Russian forces would have to retreat if it looked like that road was going to be cut off. He added that he believed Russian forces had already been conducting drills at the plant to practise pulling out.

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, who advises President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's chief of staff, also urged allies not to fear that a tougher sanctions clampdown could drive some countries closer to Russia, describing such a worry as overblown. He was speaking in an interview from Kyiv as world leaders meet to discuss new sanctions measures and how to prevent Russia and companies in third countries from circumventing sanctions imposed after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine last year. “We are grateful for all the support we have received from our allies and we have seen some positive signals on the latest sanctions packages under consideration," Vlasiuk said. Tinkoff and Rosselkhozbank have already been excluded from the SWIFT global payments system, but other banks have been subjected to full blocking sanctions. “Russian banks who provide financial services to Russian soldiers fighting an unlawful war of aggression on Ukrainian soil should face the toughest possible sanctions from our allies," Vlasiuk said.

The RBI's repo rate is at 6.50%. Banks met officials from the Fixed Income Money Market and Derivatives Association of India (FIMMDA) last week to raise the issue of persistently high overnight rates. FIMMDA and RBI officials did not respond to Reuters' emails seeking comment. Even as overnight rates stay elevated, treasury officials are not anticipating any infusion from the RBI as they expect liquidity conditions to improve in due course. That dividend transfer, according to traders, could top 1 trillion rupees ($12.23 billion), sharply above the budgeted 480 billion rupees.

☆ Analysis: Australian banks' bid to shake mortgage reliance brings new risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Byron Kaye | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"When there's a macroeconomic downturn, it's generally institutional and business lending exposures that are impacted first," he added. For decades, Australian housing finance has significantly outpaced business lending, making home loan margins the engine of profits. A more recent exodus from non-lending retail services like financial advice has further weighted banks' allocation of capital to residential property. The big four banks said in earnings updates this month that their net interest margins peaked in late 2022 and have since narrowed. To hedge against interest rates risks, the Big Four may now chase new services-based revenues from commercial clients in non-lending segments, added Garland.

☆ Vast China-Russia resources trade shifts to yuan from dollars in Ukraine fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Chen Aizhu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

[1/2] Model of natural gas pipeline, Russian and Chinese flags and Yuan and Rouble banknotes are seen in this llustration taken, September 7, 2022. "For now, and for the foreseeable next few years, I think the trade using RMB will predominantly be used for commodity and energy trade." Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that two-thirds of trade between Beijing and Moscow is now settled in roubles or yuan. Surging commodity imports pushed China's trade deficit with Russia to $38 billion last year, although the gap has narrowed in the first four months of 2023. Gazprom, which said last September it had agreed with CNPC to settle gas trade in roubles and yuan, did not respond to requests for comment.

☆ China's mounting such a strong attack on the dollar's dominance that it's paying for almost all of its Russian oil imports in the yuan
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Much of the trade was done in the Chinese yuan, per Reuters. China has ramped up the use of the yuan to buy commodities such as oil and coal from Russia. The country has been using its own currency — the yuan — for almost all of the Russian oil it bought over the past year, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing multiple trading executives with direct knowledge of the matter. The executive was likely referring to Russian crude being subject to a $60-a-barrel price cap imposed by a G7-led coalition. To contextualize this, China imported $88 billion worth of major commodities including crude oil and fuel oil from Russia in 2022 — up 52% in value from 2021.

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