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☆ Republicans' push to kill abortion rights has Democratic women in Pennsylvania rushing to knock on doors and drive people to the polls ahead of the midterm elections
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Warren Rojas | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade this summer pushed Pennsylvania women to action. Fetterman, have worked to keep abortion rights in the conversation. "The future of abortion rights and women's freedom is on the line in this race," Fetterman wrote in a letter he posted online on October 30. Canvasser Toth said she's encountered supporters across generations, billing women and men in their 20s as "very engaged" on abortion rights. Toth told Insider, adding that the 27-year-old woman said, "It's hard to think about any other issue until this one is addressed."

☆ Biden and Obama said the GOP is now a threat to democracy — ramping the warning up to 11 ahead of knife-edge midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Biden termed Republicans a threat to US democracy, further raising the stakes before the midterms. In Arizona, Obama said Republican candidates were poised to trash the state's democracy. —The New York Times (@nytimes) November 2, 2022At a rally in Phoenix, Arizona, Wednesday, former president Barack Obama echoed those points. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is poised to become House speaker if Republicans win back control of the chamber, accused Biden of fostering division with his remarks. "President Biden is trying to divide and deflect at a time when America needs to unite - because he can't talk about his policies that have driven up the cost of living," he said.

WASHINGTON — One week from Election Day, the race for Senate control remains neck and neck in an unusually volatile political environment, with small margins carrying high stakes for the future of President Joe Biden's legislative agenda and judicial nominees. Kyle Kondik, an election analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said the battle for the Senate looks like a coin-flip. “Polling for the Senate is still real close in a lot of these states.”The Senate is split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote giving Democrats control. The FiveThirtyEight Senate projection is dead even, giving both Republicans and Democrats 50% chances of winning control. A perception that GOP control would threaten democracy is also motivating liberal-leaning voters.

☆ New Mexico House race wrangles oil and gas, climate change
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Andrew Hay | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Polls show issues like climate change and abortion are important but the economy may be the driving factor in a state that is one of the poorest in the country and also a top global oil producer. First-term Republican incumbent Yvette Herrell is known as a defender of the Permian Basin oil and gas sector, a region she represents. RIO GRANDE RUNS DRYSome voters in West Side and South Valley Albuquerque areas believe fossil-fuel-driven climate change is harming their quality of life and the livelihoods of farmers. Vasquez has been hit with attack ads saying his policies will cost the state tens of thousands of oil and gas jobs. Herrell, a target of the League of Conservation Voters and other green groups, said New Mexico's emission controls meant the state's oil and gas industry was far cleaner than foreign competitors and did not contribute to climate change.

☆ Northerners flocked to the South for cheap homes and abundant jobs. Now some are ready to pack up and leave.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Emily Cataneo | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +14 min

Hauser is originally from Wisconsin and moved to North Carolina seven years ago for work. And questions over abortion rights are fueling concerns about the future of access to birth control and gender-affirming care. The North Carolina Business Council, for one, declined to comment because this is "not an area of focus" for the group. Chuck Bryan is an IT professional who moved to North Carolina from Florida five years ago. He cited Kansas' referendum to preserve abortion rights as an example of what can happen when people use their voice in politics.

☆ Stephen King says he'll quit Twitter if Elon Musk makes him pay $20 a month to be verified: 'they should pay me'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Travis Clark | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Elon Musk is reportedly considering making people pay $20 per month to stay verified on Twitter. Author Stephen King tweeted that he'll quit the site if that idea is implemented. King tweeted on Monday that he would leave Twitter if the plan is implemented. "$20 a month to keep my blue check? Musk's first few days as Twitter owner have been messy, beyond public figures saying they would leave the site.

☆ Obama zings 'birtherism' antics he faced as president while stumping for Wisconsin Democratic Senate nominee Mandela Barnes: 'Get ready to dig up that birth certificate'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Former President Obama mocked GOP "birtherism" while boosting Mandela Barnes' Wisconsin Senate bid. During a Friday rally, Obama mocked Republican campaign attempts to paint Barnes as "different." Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin's high-stakes Senate race. Johnson is currently averaging a 3.4% lead over Barnes on FiveThirtyEight using data from the most recent polls. Tony Evers, who is up for reelection this fall against Republican businessman Tim Michels, defeated two-term GOP Gov.

☆ GOP Has a Chance at Oregon Governorship for First Time in Four Decades
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Eliza Collins | Photographs Kristina Barker For The Wall Street Journal | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

PORTLAND—Oregonians might choose a Republican governor for the first time in 40 years, polls show, as voters look for new leadership to take on homelessness and crime and a well-funded independent candidate complicates the race. Former Democratic state House Speaker Tina Kotek and former state House GOP leader Christine Drazan are running evenly at just under 39%, according to the polling average on the website FiveThirtyEight.

☆ Oregon Might Elect a Republican Governor for First Time in Four Decades
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Eliza Collins | Photographs Kristina Barker For The Wall Street Journal | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

However, the first two years of Biden's presidency proved one-party control of Congress and the White House does not mean the president gets what he wants. Any impeachment would then progress to a trial in the Senate, where a Democratic majority is likely to shut it down. The Senate Majority Leader, picked from the party that holds a majority of the Senate's 100 seats, decides what the chamber votes on, or never considers. Republicans likely would push hard for deep domestic spending cuts and making some tax cuts from the 2017 tax bill set to expire at the end of 2025 permanent. Whether a House Biden impeachment process proceeds to a Senate trial would rest on the shoulders of the Senate Majority Leader, likely to be Kentucky's Mitch McConnell.

☆ Hot mic catches Schumer warning Biden that Democrats are 'going downhill' in Georgia as Herschel Walker climbs in polls
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Warren Rojas | Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Chuck Schumer was caught on a hot mic dishing about Democrats' chances of holding the Senate. Schumer was overheard telling Biden that Georgia looks increasingly bad for the party. "The state where we're going downhill is Georgia," Schumer said of Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock's highly charged reelection bid. The top Senate Democrat was also overheard telling Biden that Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. "Schumer believes the Democratic candidates will win," Justin Goodmnan, a Schumer spokesperson, said in a statement.

Anyone on his team who agreed to a debate should be fired, or never work again, because that debate may have tanked his campaign,” said Chris Kofinis, a veteran Democratic campaign strategist. John Fetterman, the Democratic Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, debates Republican challenger Mehmet Oz on Tuesday. And Fetterman’s campaign, eager to project strength, said Wednesday that it had raised $2 million since the debate ended“There’s always second-guessing,” Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., said on MSNBC Wednesday. Fetterman’s debate performance took some Republicans by surprise, too. But another top Pennsylvania Democrat, who believes Fetterman’s debate performance was devastating and requested anonymity to offer candid thoughts on the party’s nominee, fears the race is over.

☆ Nevada in Play for Republicans in Key Midterm Races Over Inflation Issue
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Jim Carlton | Siobhan Hughes | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

LAS VEGAS—Nevada Republicans stand in their strongest position in years, as polls show them with a solid chance to win multiple midterm races in a state where high prices on everything from gasoline to rent are driving voters away from Democrats. The state’s top Democrats, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Gov. Steve Sisolak , are essentially tied with their respective GOP challengers, Adam Laxalt and Clark County Sheriff Joseph Lombardo , according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll averages. Multiple recent surveys of the state show the two Republicans with leads in the low single digits, and Ms. Cortez Masto is considered by strategists in both parties to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the 50-50 Senate.

☆ Fetterman campaign says it raised $1 million in 3 hours after rough Pennsylvania Senate debate with Oz
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Kevin Breuninger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

John Fetterman's campaign said Wednesday it raised more than $1 million in just three hours following the Democratic Senate candidate's debate with his Republican rival, Dr. Mehmet Oz. The "unprecedented" haul demonstrates "deep grassroots enthusiasm" for Fetterman, his campaign said. "It's clear that the people of Pennsylvania have John's back in this race," Fetterman campaign manager Brendan McPhillips said in a press release announcing the post-debate fundraising windfall. Each candidate also repeatedly accused the other of lying, echoing the aggressively rancorous tone that has defined the pivotal Pennsylvania Senate race for months. Fetterman and Oz are competing to succeed GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, who is retiring at the end of the term.

☆ Oz, Fetterman clash early in Pennsylvania Senate debate
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Kevin Breuninger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Pennsylvania Senate Democratic hopeful John Fetterman and his Republican rival Dr. Mehmet Oz came out of the gate swinging Tuesday night in their only debate just two weeks before Election Day. Fetterman, the state's lieutenant governor, in his opening statement said that if Oz "is on TV, he's lying," calling it "the Oz rule." The Democrat is recovering from a stroke he suffered in May and used closed-captioning during the debate. The hourlong debate in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, comes as Oz, the celebrity doctor endorsed by Trump, has closed his polling deficit with Fetterman in the final weeks of the race. The Oz campaign, aided by tens of millions of dollars from Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell's PAC, has bombarded Fetterman with ads accusing him of being soft on crime and too far left for Pennsylvania.

☆ Trump replies to DeSantis' endorsement of a Colorado Republican who discouraged GOP from supporting a Trump 2024 bid: 'Big Mistake'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Hannah Getahun | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Former President Trump said Florida Gov. Trump called O'Dea, a GOP candidate for Senate in Colorado, a "RINO," or a Republican in Name Only. Ron DeSantis endorsed anti-Trump Republican candidate Joe O'Dea, taking to his Truth Social platform on Sunday evening to say it was "A Big Mistake." Colorado, please vote for Joe O'Dea," DeSantis says in the recorded message O'Dea posted on Twitter. Representatives for DeSantis, Trump, and O'Dea did not immediately respond to Insider's requests for comment.

☆ Arizona GOP governor candidate Kari Lake, who has spread election conspiracies, raises cash from business leaders
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Brian Schwartz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Arizona republican candidate for governor Kari Lake greets the audience during a stop on the Truth and Courage PAC's Take Back America Bus Tour with U.S. Lake is endorsed by Trump, who spread false conspiracies that he lost that 2020 election because of widespread voter fraud. He helped to fuel the wave of GOP candidates who have run for office while casting doubts on the 2020 results. Ducey certified Arizona's 2020 election results. Hobbs, as the state's top election official, has denied any irregularities in the 2020 election.

One person familiar with the thinking inside the White House said Democratic chances of keeping control of the Senate were seen as 50-50. The White House, while realistic, has stuck publicly to that message of hope. Former and current advisers say the White House is preparing for any obstruction or probes that could be coming. "The White House is clear-eyed for what Republican control could look like," said Eric Schultz, a Democratic strategist with close ties to the White House. White House officials and Democratic strategists Reuters spoke to acknowledge the overall shift from midterms optimism, but were not ready to give up.

☆ North Carolina Senate Race Spotlights Shrinking Slice of Persuadable Voters
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Joshua Jamerson | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

GREENSBORO, N.C.—In one of the closest Senate contests in the country, both political parties have emphasized energizing their bases more than trying to persuade a shrinking pool of undecided voters ahead of the midterm elections. The race between Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, and Rep. Ted Budd , a Republican backed by former President Donald Trump, has been close for months, as many elections in North Carolina have been in recent years. Mr. Budd holds a roughly 2.6 percentage-point edge, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight.

☆ Opinion | Frustrated With Polling? Pollsters Are, Too
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Quoctrung Bui | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +18 min

But what’s really troubling pollsters going into this election is that it’s unclear how much more error these problems will add during this cycle. Just because you put the right ingredients in a bowl, doesn’t mean you’re going to end up with a cake. I think a lot of that has been swept under the rug because the move to online polling seems so inexorable. Pollsters don’t know what people are seeing, hearing and reading. I know at FiveThirtyEight you can search by A-rated or B-rated, but I don’t know how they’re coming up with these ratings.

☆ Republican gains in key states signal bad news for Democrats ahead of midterms, new polls show
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Kevin Breuninger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Republican candidates appear to be making gains in the final sprint to the November midterms, with new election forecasts in key swing states and partisan strongholds flashing warning signs for Democrats. Republican Senate hopeful J.D. Even in reliably blue states, Democrats' slim congressional majorities are under threat. The pollster surveyed 649 likely Texas voters between Oct. 16 and Oct. 19, and carries a plus or minus 5.1 percentage point margin of error. Accordingly, Democrats' chances of holding the Senate now look much tighter, according to FiveThirtyEight's tracker.

☆ A GOP operative said Trump campaigning in Georgia would be the 'worst thing that can happen' for Republicans like Herschel Walker, report says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Kelsey Vlamis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A GOP operative told The Washington Post that Trump could distract from GOP messaging. "Trump coming down to Georgia is the worst thing that can happen for Republican candidates down here," the operative told the Post. "It immediately turns the focus from inflation and immigration to Donald Trump, and Donald Trump lost the last election here." The Georgia race, considered one of the tightest in the country, has been called a toss-up by some experts, while poll averaging site FiveThirtyEight gives Warnock a slight edge. Sources told the Post Trump may do several additional rallies before election day, including in Georgia, but only where he is wanted.

☆ Rep. Sharice Davids faces off against Republican Amanda Adkins in Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids faces off against Republican Amanda Adkins for Kansas' 3rd District. Kansas' 3rd Congressional District candidatesDavids is taking on healthcare executive Adkins once again, one of many 2020 House rematches on the ballot this November. Davids made history in 2018 as one of the first two Native American women elected to Congress when she bested four-term Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder. Voting history for Kansas' 3rd Congressional DistrictUnder the old lines, Democrats' margins have exploded at the top ticket as former President Donald Trump's presence sparked a suburban revolt. Kansas' 3rd District now juts out further past the Kansas City suburbs, giving it a much more rural feel.

☆ Rep. Angie Craig is running against Republican Tyler Kistner in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Nicole Gaudiano | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Rep. Angie Craig is running against Republican Tyler Kistner in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District. Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District candidatesCraig is a member of House committees on Agriculture, Energy and Commerce, and Small Business. Voting history for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional DistrictMinnesota's 2nd District includes rural and suburban counties south of the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul. Craig flipped the seat from red to blue in 2018 after a rematch campaign against former Republican Rep. Jason Lewis. Her opponent, Kistner, has raised $2.8 million, spent $2.3 million, and has $499,003 left to spend, as of September 30.

☆ Democrat Hillary Scholten takes on Trump-backed John Gibbs, who ousted a pro-impeachment Republican, in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Democrat Hillary Scholten is facing off against Republican John Gibbs in Michigan's 3rd District. Gibbs ousted incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer in a primary that hinged on Meijer's vote to impeach Trump. Michigan's 3rd Congressional District candidatesScholten thought she was gunning for a rematch with incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer, a Republican whose last name is literally a brand in Michigan. A state commission grappled with the loss of a seat by forcing the 3rd District to absorb much of an old seat, per FiveThirtyEight. In his 2020 race against Scholten, Meijer won by 6 points.

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