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☆ Market stress indicators flash warnings as banking worries continue
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 20 (Reuters) - Fears of a global banking crisis are continuing to swirl, with investors keeping a close eye on a dashboard of indicators that show how stress is rippling through markets and the banking system. Many of these are continuing to flash warnings, though they have not surpassed levels seen during the COVID-19-fueled market turbulence of 2020. But the spread, measuring the gap between the euro zone three-month forward rate agreement and the overnight index swap rate, is still relatively elevated at around -1 basis points in a sign of lingering concern about financial market stress. Cost of insuring European junk bondsThe cost of insuring exposure to European junk bonds rose to the highest since mid-November on Monday at over 516 basis points. This has risen over 130 basis points since March 7 as riskier assets have borne the brunt of bank turmoil on both sides of the Atlantic.

FINMA, the Swiss regulator, said the decision would bolster the bank's capital. Engineered in the wake of the global financial crisis, AT1 bonds are a form of junior debt that counts towards banks' regulatory capital. "It's stunning and hard to understand how they can reverse the hierarchy between AT1 holders and shareholders," said Jerome Legras, head of research at Axiom Alternative Investments, an investor in Credit Suisse's AT1 debt. Credit Suisse's AT1 debt had rallied earlier on Sunday amid reports that shareholders would receive something in a deal with UBS, raising hopes that bondholders would be protected. The move by the Swiss regulator could make it harder for other lenders to raise new AT1 debt, investors said.

Separately, two days of chaos in China's $21 trillion bond market ended on Friday after Beijing allowed money brokers to resume providing data to third-party platforms. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, said he considered selling Treasuries earlier in the week but the market was "wildly illiquid." Bond market volatility spikesKEEPING WATCHThe heightened volatility has caught the eye of officials who play a role in ensuring financial markets stability. Analysts noted that bond volatility was exceptionally high not only because of a flight to safe-haven government debt, but also due to a massive repricing of rate-hike expectations. "If liquidity is deteriorating due to wild swings in safe-haven markets, that has implications for the functioning of financial markets and broader economic stability."

☆ DoubleLine's Gundlach sees US recession within four months
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said a recession could happen within the next four months, as recent U.S. bank failures have exacerbated the tightening of financial conditions caused by higher borrowing rates. "With all that's going on I think a recession is probably within four months at the most," Gundlach said in a Twitter Spaces audio chat on Thursday. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Concerns have been heightened by the wild swings in market interest rates since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) last week. Fund managers advise shunning high-yield bonds, despite their attractive yields, because of the risk these bonds could be hit by ratings downgrades, defaults and a squeeze in company earnings. Refinitiv Lipper data showed high-yield bond funds, after seeing an inflow of $7.63 billion in January, faced an outflow of $11.51 billion in February. Reuters GraphicsSo far this month, high-yield bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen a total outflow of $506 million. However, safer money market funds have attracted $28.76 billion, and government bond funds have seen an inflow of $15.52 billion since February.

A reversal of low rates to stem rampant inflation has forced a risk rethink and exposed the vulnerability of firms such as Credit Suisse. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse still needs to push ahead with a radical restructuring it undertook in October to restore profitability. [1/2] The Credit Suisse logo adorns one of their buildings at their campus in Research Triangle Park in Morrisville, North Carolina, U.S., March 15, 2023. "Credit Suisse has been in our watch-list for a while," one senior executive told Reuters. The radical move by the Swiss central bank is aimed at banishing such doubts.

☆ On the precipice: How Credit Suisse's day of drama unfolded
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Fifteen years later, Credit Suisse Group AG found itself on a similar precipice. By the time traders in New York were switching on screens on Wednesday, Credit Suisse had lost more than a fifth of its value. Credit Suisse did not comment for this story but noted recent interviews given by its CEO saying the bank was strong. STILL SMOLDERINGMarkets seemed to calm, but the fresh drama around Credit Suisse jogged memories that the financial system was not out of the woods yet. "We welcome the statement of support," Credit Suisse said.

☆ Fed likely to raise rates by 25 bps, with eyes on banks -PIMCO's CIO
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But as the European Central Bank hiked rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, the U.S. central bank was expected to press on with a quarter-point interest-rate hike despite the banking sector turmoil. "They're going to be watching signs of more instability across the financial sector very carefully," Ivascyn told Reuters. "There certainly are scenarios where they pause, it'll likely be a hawkish pause if it's a pause, but our current thinking is they go 25." Ivascyn said he expected market volatility around banks to continue over the next few months with some "isolated areas of weakness," but said the global banking sector was well capitalized compared with the 2008 global financial crisis. "There are going to be weak links within the financial sector and within the credit sector more broadly," said Ivascyn.

It would help organize a $2.25 billion stock sale for SVB to fill the funding gap caused by the bond portfolio sale, two of the sources said. It is unclear whether Goldman has held onto all or part of the bond portfolio or sold it. In a regulatory filing on Tuesday, SVB said its bond portfolio sales to Goldman were done at "negotiated prices". Goldman was not paid the underwriting fee it had agreed for the stock sale because that deal fell through, two of the sources said. UNDISCLOSED ROLESVB did not disclose in its stock sale prospectus to investors that Goldman was the acquirer of the bond portfolio it sold at a loss.

☆ Banking worries send US markets on dizzying ride
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) was rebounding modestly on Thursday, after sinking 15% in a week. Reuters GraphicsMarkets are also reflecting concern that stress in the banking system may be bringing a recession closer. Economically sensitive assets such as oil and small-cap stocks (.RUT), have headed lower since Silicon Valley Bank's problems made headlines on March 8. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (.VIX) recently hit its highest level since October. But the benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) was last down just over 1% since the Silicon Valley troubles arose, and is logging a modest gain for 2023.

March 15 (Reuters) - Swiss regulators pledged a liquidity lifeline to Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) in an unprecedented move by a central bank after the flagship Swiss lender's shares tumbled as much as 30% on Wednesday. They said the bank could access liquidity from the central bank if needed. Credit Suisse said it welcomed the statement of support from the Swiss National Bank and FINMA. Hoping to quell concerns, FINMA and the Swiss central bank said there were no indications of a direct risk of contagion for Swiss institutions from U.S. banking market turmoil. The logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse is seen in front of an office building in Zurich, Switzerland October 26, 2022.

Credit Suisse said in a statement that it welcomed the news. Credit Suisse shares plunged by as much as 30.8% earlier on Wednesday, leading a 7% drop in the European banking index (.SX7P). The U.S. Treasury said it is monitoring the situation at Credit Suisse and is in touch with global counterparts about it. “People are all examining their books, what open positions we have with Credit Suisse,” the source said. The European Central Bank (ECB) had contacted banks on its watch to quiz them about their exposures to Credit Suisse, two supervisory sources told Reuters.

Rising CDS spreads signal investors are hedging bets on a deterioration in credit quality. In money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday. With investors worried about possible bank runs, the Federal Reserve on Sunday unveiled a new program to ensure banks can meet needs of all their depositors. "Hedge funds are probably the ones that are buyers in this case," said Dan Bruzzo, a strategist at Santander US Capital Markets. Other banks with California exposure were taking the brunt of the selloff in the debt capital markets, he added.

NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - Credit risk indicators flashed red on Monday, as investors worried about contagion risks across corporate debt markets after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and New York's Signature Bank in the space of 72 hours. Investment grade credit spreads, which indicate the premium investors demand to hold corporate bonds over safer government debt securities, have also been widening. The BlackRock Investment Institute said that after recently trimming its 'overweight' recommendation for investment grade credit, it was reassessing its view due to tighter financial conditions. In money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday. Other banks with California exposure were taking the brunt of the sell-off in the debt capital markets, he added.

Big investors including Kyle Bass and Bill Ackman argue the government must take quick action to avoid Silicon Valley Bank's collapse sparking more widespread withdrawals in the banking system. That could be determined by how hard the world's central banks continue to push interest rates higher. The market is signaling contagion could factor into the Fed's calculus, possibly prompting it to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Silicon Valley Financial Group was deeply woven into the fabric of the technology industry. Bass and Ackman separately warned that the government would have to move quickly in resolving Silicon Valley Bank to assure depositors.

Entities rated by MSCI ESG Research include Adani Green Energy, Adani Power, Adani Total Gas, Adani Transmission and Adani Enterprises, according to the statement. This week, MSCI ESG Research flagged all its covered Adani Group entities for the metric of accounting investigations, while some were flagged for the securities valuations metric, it said. "Across various Adani Group entities, MSCI ESG Research has identified issues relating to governance, board independence, related party transactions, and controlling shareholders," the company said. Since the short-seller report release, MSCI ESG Research has added "Bribery and Fraud" and "Governance Structures" controversy cases to all Adani Group companies in its coverage, it said. Sustainability ratings company Sustainalytics downgraded corporate governance-related scores for some Adani Group companies last month.

☆ Analysis: Awaiting key data, some investors fear Fed will overdo tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some also worry that the Fed's messaging is becoming erratic as it reacts to successively weak then strong economic data. BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, was among the slew of big Wall Street names raising their views for how high policy rates could go, with a forecast of 6%. Reuters GraphicsFor some investors, a return to 50 and 75 basis point rate increases may be a bridge too far. "Investors fear the Fed is going to overdo it," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. A spate of hotter than expected data would soon show that the economy was stronger than the Fed had expected.

In a major shake-up, China will set up the new regulatory body, the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA), according to a proposal that the State Council, or cabinet, presented to parliament on Tuesday. The watchdog, which will oversee all aspects of China's $57 trillion financial sector apart from the securities market, should help reduce regulatory overlap especially at the level of local government, analysts say. There are also plans, sources have said, for the revival of another high-level financial watchdog which is expected to be directly under central party leadership. 'ENHANCING CENTRALISATION'In its reform proposals presented in parliament, the State Council said the changes were meant to "deepen reforming local financial regulatory systems" by "enhancing centralised management of financial affairs". Some investors, however, are concerned that the regulatory power reshuffle means tighter government control, which may bring more interference or crackdowns on financial activity, particularly in the private sector.

☆ BlackRock sees 'reasonable chance' of Fed raising rates to 6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank could become more aggressive in its rate hike path following recent strong economic data. "We think there’s a reasonable chance that the Fed will have to bring the Fed Funds rate to 6%, and then keep it there for an extended period to slow the economy and get inflation down to near 2%," Rieder said in a note on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs said in a note on Tuesday that it had raised its forecast for the so-called terminal rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.5%-5.75%. That data revived fears the Fed may resort once again to the same super-sized interest rate hikes that hammered stocks and bonds last year. Traders had largely expected the central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points at its next rate-setting meeting on March 21 to 22, but after Powell's remarks on Tuesday Fed funds futures were pricing in a 50 basis points hike, CME Group data showed.

☆ Analysis: Investors revive inflation trades as 6% Fed rate risk grips Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Spooked by a flurry of hotter-than-expected U.S. economic and inflation data last month, investors are reviving trading strategies that bet on a higher peak in interest rates. The recalibration in inflation expectations has led some investors to bet on a policy rate of 6% or even higher. Trading platform Tradeweb said it saw average daily volume in inflation swaps - derivatives used to hedge inflation risk - increase by 23% month-on-month in February. With higher inflation expectations lifting short-term bond yields higher than those at the longer end, some investors are wary of committing to debt maturities at the long end of the bond market yield curve. "The momentum in the economy is so strong that we may have to get into 2024 before the Fed funds rate peaks."

☆ India's Adani to hold fixed-income roadshow next week in Asia
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - India's Adani Group will hold a fixed-income roadshow next week in Asia, according to a bank document seen by Reuters, as the beleaguered conglomerate tries to shore up investor confidence in the aftermath of a U.S. short-seller report. Adani group executives, including group Chief Financial Officer Jugeshinder Singh, will attend the roadshows in Singapore on Feb. 27, and Hong Kong on Feb. 28 and March 1, the document showed. Dollar bonds of Adani Group were largely trading lower on Friday. Bonds of Adani Ports (APSE.NS) maturing in February 2031 led the losses, while some notes of Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS) were marginally higher. Barclays, BNP Paribas, DBS Bank, Deutsche Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, ING, IMI-Intesa Sanpaolo, MUFG, Mizuho, SMBC Nikko and Standard Chartered Bank are the banks organising next week's roadshow, according to the document.

[1/3] A man wearing a protective mask is seen inside the Shanghai Stock Exchange building, as the country is hit by a new coronavirus outbreak, at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai, China, February 28, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoNEW YORK/SINGAPORE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Many large money managers are steering clear of Chinese assets, missing out on the nation's post-COVID stock market rally in the latest example of strategic concerns trumping juicy returns. "For our investors who might have that concern, there are plenty of other opportunities away from China." The concern flagged by some is whether this is part of a structural downgrade for Chinese assets, said Will Malcolm, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at Aviva Investors. That could attract cash in a hurry, but the behaviour of large investors so far suggests that a large sentiment shift will be needed.

☆ Markets bracing for 'no landing' world economy scenario curb risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Markets, bracing for a “no landing” scenario where global economic growth is resilient and inflation stays higher for longer, are dialling back appetite for both risk assets and government debt. But recent data reflecting still tight jobs markets has traders entertaining a new scenario where economic growth holds up and inflation remains sticky. “We’ve gone from softer landing to no landing - no landing being that (financing) conditions will remain tight,” said David Katimbo-Mugwanya, head of fixed income at EdenTree Asset Management. GOODBYE RECESSION RISK? Graphic: Economic growth forecasts turn high hereEuro zone recession expectations mostly faded in mid January as energy prices tumbled.

But recent data reflecting still tight jobs markets has traders entertaining a new scenario where economic growth holds up and inflation remains sticky. World stocks hit one-month lows on Wednesday, while Wall Street had its worst day of the year so far on Tuesday. "We've gone from softer landing to no landing - no landing being that (financing) conditions will remain tight," said David Katimbo-Mugwanya, head of fixed income at EdenTree Asset Management. Bond prices fall, and yields rise, when expectations of higher rates on cash make their fixed interest payments less appealing. Reuters GraphicsEuro zone recession expectations mostly faded in mid January as energy prices tumbled.

The U.S. Treasury hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit last month. Investors need to actively manage their positions during a prolonged turbulent period in which borrowing negotiations could disrupt markets, Shah said. The Treasury bills yield curve indicates investors are demanding higher returns to hold debt due in August, signaling that it is perceived to be riskier than other maturities. Bid yields of Treasury billsStandoffs over the debt limit in the last decade have largely been resolved without causing major financial turmoil. Bond investors are navigating uncertainty around what they're calling the X-date, when the government can no longer meet its payments.

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