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☆ A former IMF official says it's 'very likely' US home prices fall 15-20% as a credit crunch creates a lose-lose scenario for the housing sector and the debt ceiling standoff threatens a substantial re
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
A credit crunch, an already-slowing economy, and the debt-ceiling standoff risk a downturn. If these smaller institutions are loaning out less money, this further hurts demand in the housing market, meaning home prices have to fall accordingly. On the other hand, a credit crunch puts the US economy at significant risk of a recession, Lachman said. "Housing gets hit by tighter credit conditions, but then it also gets hit if the economy goes into recession." KPMG's Yelena Maleyev believes prices could fall as much as 20%, while Interactive Brokers' José Torres sees 15% downside.
☆ Australia's home prices rise again in sign of market bottom
  + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SYDNEY, May 1 (Reuters) - Australian home prices rose for a second straight month in April, in a further signal that the nation's property market may have hit a floor ahead of a central bank rate decision on Tuesday. Figures from property consultant CoreLogic released on Monday showed prices nationally rose 0.5% in April from March, when values were up 0.6%, indicating Australian home prices may have bottomed out after slumping 9.1% from May 2022 to February. We now expect home prices to rise by 3% in 2023 and forecast a further increase of 5% in 2024." Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, also no longer expects a top-to-bottom fall of 15-20% in housing prices, citing "a far worse property demand and supply imbalance" with immigration levels surging and supply remaining tight. PropTrack data on Monday showed that home prices rose 0.14% in April, bringing the cumulative increase this year to 0.75%.
☆ A housing economist shares the top 5 markets with the highest risk of price declines, plus where mortgage rates could be by year-end
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Mortgage rates are expected to be in the high fives by year-end, says Selma Hepp. Five US metros including Salt Lake City and Boise are highly vulnerable to price declines. It is a rough time for the real-estate market as mortgage rates remain volatile. Although mortgage rates are difficult to predict, Hepp says they could be in the high fives or about 5.8% by year-end. Below is a list of the markets with the highest risk of price declines, according to CoreLogic data.
☆ The housing market downturn will send home prices 5% lower and help push the economy into a recession
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
US home prices will likely decline 5% year over year in the second half of 2023, Vanguard said. Strategists said the rate-sensitive housing sector will be an early indicator of the Fed's tightening. "The housing downturn is part of the reason why we view a mild US recession in 2023 as most likely." VanguardIn the shorter term, however, the housing slump this year will likely help tip the US economy into recession. "The housing downturn is part of the reason why we view a mild U.S. recession in 2023 as most likely," Vanguard said.
☆ Mortgage demand rebounds, even as interest rates hit the highest level in over a month
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The recent softening in home prices may be helping homebuyers swallow higher mortgage rates. Total mortgage application volume rose 3.7% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. "As a result of the higher yields, mortgage rates increased for the second straight week to their highest level in over a month." Despite higher rates, mortgage applications to buy a home, which had plummeted the week before, rose 5% last week. Mortgage rates fell slightly to start this week, as investors digested news of regional bank earnings as well as concern over the debt ceiling.
☆ Today's Mortgage and Refinance Rates: April 26, 2023 | As Rates Drop, Housing Market may be Turning a Corner
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Molly Grace | Laura Grace Tarpley | Mortgage Reporter | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Though average mortgage rates increased slightly last week, they've generally been trending down over the last month and a half. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year fixed mortgage rates inched up to 6.39% last week, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.76%, an increase from the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data. Inflation remains elevated, but has started to slow, which is a good sign for mortgage rates and the broader economy.
☆ Home Prices Rose in February for First Time Since June
  + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Nicole Friedman | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
PHOTO: Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesHome prices rose in February from the prior month, snapping a seven-month streak of declines, as buyers competed for a limited number of homes for sale. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the nation, rose 0.2% in February compared with January on a seasonally adjusted basis.
☆ US home prices rose slightly in February, snapping seven months of declines
  + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Washington, DC CNN —US home prices rose slightly in February, snapping a seven-month streak of month-over-month declines, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, released Tuesday. The national composite index now stands 4.9% below its June 2022 peak. Miami again had the biggest year-over-year price gain in February, followed by Tampa, Florida; and Atlanta. Miami had a year-over-year price increase of 10.8%, followed by Tampa with a 7.7% increase and Atlanta with an 6.6% increase. In January, four West Coast cities — San Francisco; Seattle; San Diego; and Portland, Oregon — saw year-over-year price declines.
☆ US consumer confidence hits nine-month low; housing market bottoming out
  + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Consumers have shown resilience despite high inflation and a rise in interest rates, keeping the economy afloat, thanks to a strong labor market. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3, the lowest reading since July 2022, from 104.0 in March. The survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, rose to 37.3 from 36.5 in March, consistent with a tight labor market. "Take consumer purchase plans with a grain of salt," said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. That skepticism also extended to home purchase plans.
☆ A real-estate investor who's built a 311-unit portfolio over the last 26 years lays out how new investors can scale up and maximize cash flow in today's market as strategies like home-flipping and BRR
  + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
A much better strategy to scale up in today's market is house hacking, Curry said. When Anne Curry started to build her 311-unit portfolio in the late 1990s, she turned to hard money lenders. Curry also said it offers investors to maximize cash flow and the chance to scale up. "Buy something that your mortgage payment is such where you could rent it out for that much, or maybe a little more," she said. The total mortgage payment for the property is about $3,000 per month she said, and he's able to charge $1,800 for the one unit and $900 for the bedroom.
☆ The housing market's fluctuations of the last year have left the best forecasters torn on what home prices will do in 2023
  + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
That said, today's newsletter focuses on the housing market — and why economists can't seem to agree on what it's going to do next. Some of the top real-estate forecasters in the world expect home prices to drop in 2023. Zillow forecasts home prices to climb 0.5% this year, and CoreLogic predicts a year-over-year increase of 3.7% by February 2024. Last month's financial turmoil that Silicon Valley Bank kicked off has led many analysts to anticipate a cut or pause in rate hikes, which could lead to fluctuations in housing demand and affordability. Prices in New York rose nearly 2% Wednesday as fears of a global supply shock intensified.
☆ Sorry, homebuyers. Houses aren't getting cheaper.
  + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
The number of for-sale homes is so low that buyers still compete over them despite higher mortgage rates. Sure, relatively higher mortgage rates are dampening buyer demand. And the higher mortgage rates prevent homeowners from wanting to move and sell. Those who can still afford home purchases are snatching up available inventory, especially as mortgage rates trend lower by the week. "A big part of how we can achieve affordability is building more homes," Olsen said.
☆ Zillow's chief economist explains why the party is over for short-term real-estate investing tactics like house-flipping — and says long-term strategies designed to generate cash flow are an investor'
  + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
You know, long run mortgage rates are expected to be around five-and-a-half, six." Economists at other real-estate firms share similar views to Olsen's in respect to mortgage rates, at least for the rest of 2023. Plus, when mortgage rates eventually fall, one can refinance into a lower rate, improving an investor's positive cash flow. In the meantime, there's a way that buyers can get around high mortgage rates, Olsen said. Many sellers are offering concessions, like paying for repairs and helping pay for a rate buydown.
☆ When Is The Best Time to Buy a House?
  + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +8 min
By Michele LernerAs with much else in real estate, the best time of year to buy a house depends on location, market conditions—and you. “But the best time of year to buy a house depends a lot on the type of buyer.”The spring housing marketTraditionally the housing market’s most active season, spring can be the “best” time of year to buy or the “worst” time of year to buy, depending on your perspective. Best time to buy for: Buyers who hope to move before the holidays or at least before the end of the year. Best time to buy for: Buyers and investors looking for a better deal. “Sometimes it’s the right time to buy a house when you’ve found ‘the one’ that feels right for your family and your circumstances,” Bloch says.
☆ The housing market is a total paradox now, and these recent mixed signals are adding to the confusion
  + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Housing indicators have sent mixed signals, muddying the picture on where the market is headed. Regional differences have also been playing a considerable role in the data. Meanwhile, Adams added that national averages can obscure stark regional differences, which have varied significantly, potentially causing diverging viewpoints. Here are some recent mixed signals:The US housing market is crashing and soaring at the same timeThe regional divide in the housing market is exemplified in this east-west split. "Existing-home sales, pending contracts and new-home construction pending contracts have turned the corner and climbed for the past three months."
☆ A senior economist at Interactive Brokers shares why home prices across the country will fall another 11% over the next year — and why a 2008-size crash he had expected won't come after all
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres says home prices will drop 15% peak-to-trough. The weakening in the housing market will continue into Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024, according to José Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers. Affordability is measured by home prices and mortgage rates relative to incomes. Yardeni ResearchTorres thinks affordability will stay at relatively depressed levels in the months ahead because he sees mortgage rates staying high. As for mortgage rates, consensus among firms like Goldman Sachs, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody's, and others is that 30-year rates will remain above 5%.
☆ Home Prices Fell in January for Seventh Straight Month
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Nicole Friedman | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Home prices declined in January from the prior month as increased mortgage rates continued to slow the housing market. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the nation, fell 0.2% in January compared with December on a seasonally adjusted basis. Prices have fallen for seven straight months, the longest streak of declines since 2012.
☆ Rent growth drops back to pre-pandemic levels, but some markets are falling much harder
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Apartment rents have increased slightly for the past few months, as the seasonally stronger spring activity kicks in. And, after last year's record-setting pace, rent growth is now slightly below the pre-pandemic average of 2.8%. It looks like 2023 is shaping to be a year of modest positive rent growth," researchers at Apartment List noted in the report. Single-family rent growth was 5.7% year over year in January, the lowest rate of appreciation since spring 2021, according to CoreLogic. "While rent growth is slowing at all tracked price tiers, declines for the lowest-cost rentals are not as significant, which raises affordability concerns.
☆ Home prices are in their longest slump since 2012. Here's what experts think happens next.
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
US home prices just fell for the seventh consecutive month, Case-Shiller data showed Tuesday. Here's what economists are saying about the housing market outlook. Over the last year, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hiking campaign has helped lift mortgage rates sharply, weighing on affordability and demand. Here's what experts have said could come next for the housing market. "Long-term [the housing shortage] puts a floor under demand in this country for newly built homes," he told CNBC on Thursday.
☆ US home prices fell in January for the seventh-straight month
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington, DC CNN —US home prices fell for the seventh month in a row in January, even as mortgage rates eased, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, released Tuesday. Miami had a year-over-year price increase of 13.8%, followed by Tampa with a 10.5% increase and Atlanta with an 8.4% increase. That battle has caused mortgage rates to spike over the past year, resulting in many home buyers being priced out of purchasing a home. Mortgage rates are expected to be volatile for as long as the Fed has to work to pull back runaway inflation. “Just how much prices will rise from winter lows will depend on whether mortgage rates stabilize and creep downward or stay high and volatile.”
☆ Home prices cool in January, even falling in some cities, S&P Case-Shiller says
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Home prices cooled in January, up only 3.8% nationally than they were a year earlier, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. That was likely due to a brief drop in mortgage rates and a resulting jump in sales. Home prices have been cooling due to higher mortgage rates. Miami prices were up 13.8%, Tampa prices up 10.5%, and Atlanta prices rose 8.4%. All 20 cities, however, reported lower prices in the year ending January 2023 versus the year ending December 2022.
☆ US consumer confidence rises; house price inflation slows
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 104.2 this month from a reading of 103.4 in February. Housing affordability, which deteriorated as mortgage rates surged in response to the Fed's fight against inflation, is starting to gradually improve as house price gains continue to moderate. Annual house price growth remained strong in the Southeast, with double-digit gains in Miami and Tampa. The region had experienced rapid house price increases in prior years. Goods trade balanceThe Commerce Department also reported that wholesale inventories rose 0.2% in February after falling 0.5% in January.
☆ Economy Week Ahead: U.S. Household Spending and Home Prices in Focus
  + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The National Association of Realtors releases data this week on home sales. TuesdayS&P Global releases its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for January. Home prices rose 5.8% in the year ended in December, down from a 7.6% annual rate the prior month, the lowest December-to-December change since 2019. The National Association of Realtors last week separately said the median sale price of previously owned homes fell year-over-year in February for the first time in over a decade. The Conference Board publishes its March consumer-confidence index, which measures Americans’ attitudes toward the economy and labor market.
☆ Looking to buy a house? Follow these 7 tips to ensure you get the best deal, according to economists at Redfin
  + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Some tips include asking for concessions, buying new, waiting, and buying in cash. In a recent post, Redfin economists shared their top tips for homebuyers right now. 7 tips for homebuyersThe first tip from Chen Zhao, Redfin's economics research team lead, is to wait if you can. Considering how high mortgage rates are, a rate buydown is a concession that could help shoppers buy themselves some time for rates to fall. One counterpoint to this is that home values just about everywhere have also climbed since the start of the pandemic.
☆ Mortgage giant Fannie Mae tackles climate risk, but changes to underwriting may take several years
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
But the housing market currently doesn't price that climate risk into home values. The mortgage giant's chief climate officer, Tim Judge, says mortgage underwriting does not currently account for climate risk. To help, Judge is hiring climate risk modeling firms, such as First Street Foundation and Jupiter Intelligence, as well as others, to figure out just how to factor climate risk into home values and mortgage underwriting. First Street, for example, looks at climate risk from floods, fire and wind, and brings it down to an individual property level. But Fannie Mae is not yet rejecting any mortgages based solely on climate risk.
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