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On the one hand, officials could stick with their recent script: Their next policy move is likely to be an interest rate reduction, but incoming inflation and growth data will determine how soon reductions can begin and how extensive they will be. Policymakers believe that they need to use interest rates to tap the brakes on demand and bring inflation fully under control. The Fed will release its policy decision in a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern. But investors are likely to focus most intently on a news conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. with Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair. Central bankers will not release quarterly economic projections at this gathering — the next set is scheduled for release after the Fed’s June 11-12 meeting.
Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal
Central bankers chose to keep interest rates steady, and Powell said a rate hike was "unlikely." Fed officials chose to keep interest rates unchanged, in line with the market's expectations. Investors have been fretting over higher interest rates as inflation came in hotter-than-expected throughout the first quarter. The odds of a Fed rate hike in June are less than 1%. Calling that out in the first paragraph is tantamount to saying that interest rate cuts are not coming soon."
Persons: Powell, , Greg McBride, Bankrate, Charlie Ripley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Fed, Allianz Investment Management
Washington CNN —The Federal Reserve is expected to announce Wednesday that it is keeping interest rates at a quarter-century high for the sixth-straight meeting. Other Fed officials have already introduced the possibility of a rate hike, in addition to the chance of no rate cuts this year. Williams later said that another rate hike is possible if economic data warrants it. That combination eerily resembled stagflation, which triggered a broad stocks selloff on Wall Street Thursday. The threshold for a rate hike is ‘extremely high’Another interest rate hike is back in the conversation, but at the moment, it’s still not likely the Fed will do that.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, John Williams, Williams, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, , can’t, it’s, Goldman Sachs, Wall, ” Oren Klachkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Index, New York Fed, Bloomberg, Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Commerce Department, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Nationwide, CNN Locations: New, Chicago, Wells Fargo
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Before last week's strong quarter, CNBC learned that Alphabet's Google had laid off hundreds of employees from so-called core teams. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Powell, It's, Morgan Stanley, DuPont, Jim, Laxman Narasimhan's, Estee Lauder, Stanley Black, Decker, Bernstein, Toni Sacconaghi, Apple, Sacconaghi, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Google, West Texas, Coterra, Cruise, Viking Holdings, Investment, Morgan, GE Healthcare, Nvidia, Big Tech, Linde, Bausch Health, Apple, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: India, Mexico, Gaza, WTI, Wall, China
Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and signaled that they are wary about how stubborn inflation is proving, paving the way for a longer period of high interest rates. The Fed held borrowing costs steady at 5.33 percent on Wednesday, leaving them at a more than two-decade high where they have been set since July. Central bankers reiterated that they need “greater confidence” that inflation is coming down before reducing rates. “Readings on inflation have come in above expectations,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at a news conference following the release of the central bank’s rate decision. After months of rapid cooling, inflation has proved surprisingly sticky in early 2024.
Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed
Federal Reserve officials are fiercely protective of their separation from politics, but the presidential election is putting the institution on a crash course with partisan wrangling. Fed officials set policy independently of the White House, meaning that while presidents can push for lower interest rates, they cannot force central bankers to cut borrowing costs. Incumbent politicians generally want low interest rates, which help to stoke economic growth by making borrowing cheap. But the Fed uses higher interest rates to keep inflation slow and steady — and if politicians forced to keep rates low and goose the economy all the time, it could allow those price increases to rocket out of control. Pressuring officials for lower rates was unlikely to help, administrations reasoned, and could actually backfire by prodding policymakers to keep rates higher for longer to prove that they were independent from the White House.
Organizations: Federal, White
Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. The outlook for rate cuts this year continues to sour, with traders pricing in just one or two cuts by December. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders waited for the Federal Reserve to announce its next move on interest rates. Investors have also dialed back their outlook for rate cuts throughout the year. At Wednesday's meeting, market watchers expect Powell to formally confirm this shift from the FOMC, which had previously forecast three rate cuts this year," Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro said in a note.
Persons: Stocks, , Richard Flynn, Charles Schwab, Powell, Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Open Markets, Traders
The Employment Cost Index rose a seasonally adjusted 1.2% last quarter, faster growth than the 0.9% increase the prior quarter, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday. On an annual basis, the index that measures changes in wages and benefits was unchanged at 4.2% for the year ending in March. Economists had expected quarterly growth to come in at 0.9% and for annual gains to slow to 4%. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the trajectory of wage gains as there’s a concern that accelerated compensation growth may serve as an inflation pressure. The index also includes controls for changes in the composition of employment, essentially measuring wage costs for the same jobs over time.
Persons: , Economists Organizations: CNN, of Labor Statistics, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Fed
All that has caused the spring homebuying season to take a timeout — and could spell trouble for the remainder of the year. Since 1999, more than a third of home sales for the entire year occur between March and June on average, according to Freddie Mac data. Given the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, Khater expects mortgage rates to remain elevated for longer. Taken together, all these factors will likely put upward pressure on home prices, Khater and his team said in the report. “Our outlook does depend on mortgage rates, which are creating their own seasonality,” she added.
Persons: That’s, ” Zillow, Nicole Bachaud, “ Buyers, Bachaud, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac, Khater, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, CNN, , Fed Locations: New York, Texas, Florida
Investors should be wary of coming Fed rate cuts, Black Swan investor Mark Spitznagel warned. That's because the Fed is only cutting rates in response to a weakening economy, Spitznagel told Reuters last week. The US could see a recession and major stock crash before rates head lower, he predicted. That's because the Fed is only likely to ease monetary policy when the economy is slammed with a recession and the market is flailing, according to famous "Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel. "There are lag effects when you reset interest rates like we had."
Persons: Black Swan, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, , Swan, Nassim Taleb Organizations: Reuters, Service, Federal Reserve, Universa, Federal, National Association of Business Economics, Investor
This would force interest rates to stay higher for longer, putting pressure on US businesses and consumers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA pair of economic reports has brought back a word no central banker ever wants to hear: stagflation. The difficult scenario occurs when inflation rises and growth stalls, a dangerous combination just experienced by the US economy.
Persons: stagflation, , Thursday's, LPL, Jeffrey Roach, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Jamie Dimon, Roach, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Federal, yesterday's, Fed, Wall Street, Bank of America
This would force interest rates to stay higher for longer, putting pressure on US businesses and consumers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA pair of economic reports has brought back a word no central banker ever wants to hear: stagflation. The difficult scenario occurs when inflation rises and growth stalls, a dangerous combination just experienced by the US economy.
Persons: stagflation, , Thursday's, LPL, Jeffrey Roach, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Jamie Dimon, Roach, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Federal, yesterday's, Fed, Wall Street, Bank of America
Finally, consumers are dipping into savings to fund those purchases, creating a precarious scenario, if not now then down the road. With unemployment under 4%, it shouldn't be that surprising that prices aren't" going down, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. So you might have a sticky inflation scenario." "If inflation remains higher, the Fed will be faced with the difficult choice of pushing the economy into a recession, abandoning its soft-landing scenario, or tolerating inflation higher than 2%," Sanders said. "To us, accepting higher inflation is the more prudent option."
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Biden, Mike Sanders, Sanders Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council, Madison Investments Locations: San Rafael , California, U.S
Former US President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media at Manhattan criminal court in New York, US, on Thursday, April 25, 2024. The plans, which the Journal report described as highly secretive, are part of a 10-page document that suggests Trump — if elected — would be consulted on interest rate decisions. Along with those proposals, the draft contends that Trump could remove current Fed Chair Jerome Powell from office and require that Fed policy be aligned with the administration's goals. While in office, Trump harshly criticized Powell and his fellow central bankers as they were raising interest rates and reportedly considered ousting him. Trump campaign officials told the Journal that the draft proposals shouldn't be considered "official."
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Wall, Treasury Department Locations: Manhattan, New York
It's still likely the Fed will issue its first rate cut this June, Citi economist Veronica Clark said. That's because central bankers will need to support a weakening labor market, Clark told Yahoo Finance. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is still likely to cut rates in June in order to prop up the labor market amid a slowdown in hiring, according to Citi economist Veronica Clark. "We have a base case for June still," Clark said of rate cuts, though she noted a July Fed rate cut was also possible. Markets are now pricing in just one or two cuts by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from as many as seven rate cuts projected at the start of 2024.
Persons: It's, Veronica Clark, Clark, , That's, Powell Organizations: Citi, Yahoo Finance, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics — Locations: Central
And economists are forecasting new inflation data due Friday will paint a similar picture. The GDP report gave another preview of what could come. Slowing economic growth combined with rising inflation is known as stagflation. To be fair, one GDP report isn’t necessarily indicative of a trend. He repeated that message in a Wall Street Journal interview published Thursday before the GDP report was released.
Persons: there’s, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, we’ve, , , ” Dimon, Mike Reynolds Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Economic, of New Locations: New York, Germany, Israel, of New York
Yellen: US economy strong, not overheated
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Yellen on Thursday was interviewed by Reuters’ editor in chief Alessandra Galloni as part of the news organization’s NEXT Newsmakers series. “The economy is clearly performing very well,” Yellen said. Yellen said the weaker reading was not “concerning,” mentioning that measures of underlying growth were strong in Thursday’s report. Economic growth has remained historically strong in the face of elevated inflation, high interest rates and geopolitical tensions. “I believe the fundamentals here are in line with inflation continuing downward toward a normal level,” Yellen said.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Alessandra Galloni, ” Yellen, , Yellen, Joe Biden, Katherine Tai, Tai Organizations: CNN, Reuters, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, US Trade Locations: Yellen, Ukraine, US, China
Washington CNN —The US economy cooled more than expected in the first quarter of the year, but remained healthy by historical standards. Gross domestic product, which measures all the services and goods produced in the economy, measured an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. It was the weakest pace of growth since the second quarter of 2022 when the economy contracted. What this means for interest ratesInflation slowed considerably last year, but the pace of its descent has stalled in recent months. For now, economic growth remains healthy, despite the weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP reading, as employers continue to hire at a solid clip and workers still command robust wage gains.
Persons: ” Oren Klachkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Gross, Commerce Department, Consumer, Nationwide, CNN
Europe’s central bankers are trying to get out of the shadow of the United States. Now, European Central Bank policymakers are emphasizing how much the inflation problem has eased in the eurozone. All week, Europe’s policymakers reiterated their growing confidence that high inflation was dissipating in the eurozone and that their 2 percent inflation target was in sight. The E.C.B., which sets interest rates for all 20 countries that use the euro, has signaled it could cut rates at its next policy meeting in early June. “We’re clearly in a disinflation process,” said Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of Ireland’s central bank and one of the 26 members of the E.C.B.’s governing council.
Persons: “ We’re, , Gabriel Makhlouf Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Locations: United States, Washington, Ireland’s, U.S
The front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May , which expires on Monday, fell 12 cents to $83.02 a barrel. Iran is the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, according to Reuters data. ANZ analysts said in a note that volatility in the Middle East will keep oil markets "jittery". On Saturday, a blast at an Iraqi military base killed a member of a security force that includes Iran-backed groups. Separately, on Sunday, Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah said it downed an Israeli drone that was on a combat mission in southern Lebanon.
Persons: Brent, Tina Teng, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: West Texas, Chicago Federal, Energy, U.S . House, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ, Hezbollah Locations: Israel, Iran, U.S, Ukraine, China, Iraqi, Sunday, Lebanese, Lebanon, Gaza
Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.
Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas
Dollar takes a breather as investors ponder U.S. rates outlook
  + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The yen strengthened 0.05% to 154.29 a dollar but remained close to the 34-year low of 154.79 touched on Tuesday. Japan last intervened in the currency market in 2022, spending an estimated $60 billion to defend the yen. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6439, while the New Zealand dollar eased a bit to $0.5914 after spiking 0.6% on Wednesday.
Persons: Sterling, Michelle Bowman, Kristina Clifton, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Market Committee, Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, IG, Japan, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Japan, South Korea, Tokyo, Seoul
Read previewFederal Reserve officials heaped more doubt on the timing of rate cuts this year, echoing Chair Jerome Powell in stating that the path to 2% inflation looks uncertain. The Fed has projected three rate cuts to come by the end of 2024. Fed Chair Powell suggested earlier in the week that rate cuts could be delayed, causing stocks to slide. Inflation risks haven't been lost on investors, who have been steadily dialing back their expectations for Fed rate cuts over the last few months. Markets are now expecting just one or two rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from six cuts that were anticipated at the start of 2024.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester, Mester, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, John Williams, It's, Williams, Powell, haven't Organizations: Service, Cleveland Fed, Business, York Fed
Oil prices head back up on Middle East jitters
  + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A view of an oil well at Arab Desert in Jebel Dukhan, Bahrain on March 4, 2024. Oil prices rose in early trade on Friday on heightened tensions in the Middle East, where Iran has promised to retaliate for a suspected Israeli air strike on its embassy in Syria, which could risk disruptions to supply from the oil producing region. Israel is keeping up its war in Gaza but is also preparing for scenarios in other areas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday. "The European Central Bank's decision to leave policy rates unchanged ... was expected, but accompanying statements open the door for near-term monetary easing," S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a note. However in the U.S., Federal Reserve officials signalled on Thursday no rush to cut interest rates, as sticky U.S. inflation remains a concern.
Persons: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Israel, Washington, ANZ Research, Organization of, Petroleum, P Global Market Intelligence, Federal Locations: Jebel Dukhan, Bahrain, Iran, Syria, Damascus, Gaza, Israel, Tehran, Europe, U.S
Club holding Wells Fargo will post quarterly results on Friday, followed by our other financial holding, Morgan Stanley, on Tuesday. In theory, higher borrowing costs mean Wells Fargo can generate more money from those interest-earning assets, but it's not that simple. It's hard to say with the fluid inflation and rate expectations whether Wells Fargo might change its NII outlook when it reports on Friday. Wells Fargo also has a key long-term growth prospect in the potential removal of its $1.9 trillion Fed-imposed asset cap. A woman walks past Wells Fargo bank in New York City, U.S., March 17, 2020.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, We're, Jim Cramer, Wells, Wells Fargo's, Mike Santomassimo, Santomassimo, Jim said, Jim, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Charlie's, He's, Morgan, there's, Jefferies, Reddit's, James Gorman, Ted Pick, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Club, Silicon Valley Bank, UBS, Investment, JPMorgan, Jefferies, Discover, Wall Street, Amer Sports, Astera Labs, Reddit's, New York Stock Exchange, Street Journal, CNBC Locations: Wells, Silicon, Wells Fargo, Capital, Wilson, Morgan, New York City, U.S
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