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Carvana’s Rose-Tinted Windshield Is Dangerous
  + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Jinjoo Lee | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Between slowing used-car demand and rising interest rates, online used-car seller Carvana is navigating some perilous conditions. Carvana said on Thursday that it sold 102,570 used vehicles to retail customers in the third quarter, 8% fewer than a year earlier. Wall Street analysts polled by Visible Alpha were expecting a flat number. CarMax , a much larger seller of used vehicles, reported a milder (6.4%) year-over-year decline in its last quarter ended Aug. 31. The company’s shares fell nearly 11% in after-hours trading following the earnings call, bringing its year-to-date decline to 95%.
Shares of the online used car retailer have plummeted by more than 95% this year, after hitting an all-time intraday high of $376.83 per share on Aug. 10, 2021. Analyst Adam Jonas cited deterioration in the used car market and a volatile funding environment for the change. Pricing and profits of used vehicles have been significantly elevated as consumers who couldn't find or afford to purchase a new vehicle opted for a pre-owned car or truck. But rising interest rates, inflation and recessionary fears have led to less willingness by consumers to pay the record prices, leading to declines for Carvana and other used vehicle companies such as CarMax . Large franchised new and used vehicle dealers such as Lithia Motors and AutoNation warned of softening in the used vehicle market when recently reporting their third-quarter results.
Carvana and its investors seem to be getting a hold of the company's troubles, according to JPMorgan. Analyst Rajat Gupta upgraded shares of Carvana to neutral from underweight, saying that investors have a better handle on the risks around the used car seller after its decline this year, and that the company can better manage its liquidity. The analyst maintained his December 2022 price target of $20, which is roughly 48% upside from Monday's closing price of $13.53. Carvana shares down more than 90% this year, and Gupta expects that the retailer is "not out of the woods" yet as it deals with rising interest rates and a poor macro backdrop for used car sales. Still, Carvana will not deal with the same level of write-down risk like some of its peers such as CarMax, he said in the note.
The GM logo is seen on the facade of the General Motors headquarters in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., March 16, 2021. Ford follows on Wednesday, having already warned investors that third quarter results will fall short of expectations because of supply chain and logistics snarls. Wall Street investors have not waited to act on wariness that demand for cars is finally entering a long-delayed cyclical downturn. GM shares are down 19% since Sept. 19. So far, neither GM nor Ford has cut full-year profit guidance.
But with interest rates rising, inflation at record highs and recession fears looming, Wall Street is closely watching third-quarter earnings results and guidance for any signs consumer demand might be weakening. Spak said third-quarter earnings "should mostly be fine," with the focus being on company commentary and guidance revisions. DealersCarMax fueled Wall Street's concerns last month after the used car dealer posted one of its biggest earnings misses ever. Citing CarMax's results, J.P. Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta said the sentiment for franchised dealers' third-quarter earnings "is the most negative we have encountered since the pandemic." Other major dealers scheduled to report third-quarter earnings include Group 1 Automotive on Oct. 26, followed by AutoNation , Asbury Automotive Group and Sonic Automotive on Oct. 27.
The once-blazing Carvana is stalling as the market for used cars shrinks and issues with its business model become harder to gloss over, according to Wedbush. Analyst Seth Basham downgraded the stock to neutral and cut the price target a whopping 70% to $15, now implying the stock has downside of 17.7%. The online platform for used cars was a pandemic winner as economic shutdowns led consumers away from car lots and toward its website. Its pandemic closing high of $360.98 in August 2021 was nearly 300% higher than its trading value at the start of 2020. Basham said the downgrade stems not just from sliding demand, but from concerns over how Carvana does business as the company's cost base is too high.
Leading into earnings season, analysts typically do very little as they await company guidance. However, this earnings season is shaping up differently. Point 1: Earnings are expected to be up for the third quarter, but the extraordinary profits of oil companies are distorting the results. Q3 earnings Ests: S & P 500 All sectors: up 4.1% Excluding Energy: down 2.6% Source: Refinitiv Point 2: The companies that have reported early have generally been disappointing. Traders are focused on fourth quarter estimates, where four sectors are already negative, and technology is just barely positive.
As a result, UBS analysts lowered their rating on Ford to sell from neutral, while cutting their price target to $10 a share from $13 a share. The market took note, as Ford quickly found itself one of the biggest losers in the S & P 500 on Monday. Ford shares were down roughly 7.7%, at $11.26 a share, in midday trading. As long-term Ford believers, we're paying attention to both — especially the fact that Ford shares entered Monday's session down roughly 41% year-to-date. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
We are entering third quarter earnings season, and the level of cluelessness has never been so high. Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey called the start of third quarter earnings season "A Dud." With the S & P 500 closing at 3,585 for the third quarter, the forward earnings multiple now stands at 15 times 2023 earnings, according to S & P Global. S & P 500: Forward Earnings Multiple 2023: 15.0 5-year average: 21.7 Avg. More importantly, earnings estimates for the "growth" part of the S & P have been getting cut for both the third and fourth quarters.
CarMax Shares Slump as Inflation Weighs on Used-Car Demand
  + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Will Feuer | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
CarMax said its profit dropped by more than 50% in the latest quarter, missing Wall Street expectations. CarMax Inc. posted a steep drop in profit for the recently ended quarter, as inflation and economic concerns weighed on Americans’ demand for buying used cars, which have seen prices balloon amid a pandemic-related shortage of new cars. The used-car retailer saw profit drop by more than 50% as sales rose just 2%, the slowest pace since a rush in used-car purchases earlier in the pandemic.
CarMax shares are cratering Thursday after the used car dealer posted one of its biggest earnings misses ever. That's the phrase generating all the headlines, but it's not the first time CarMax has used that line. It said it back in its June earnings report , too – when the company posted a 7-cent earnings beat. Is it that used car prices have suddenly gone through the roof, making purchases unaffordable? Yes, car prices are much higher than pre-pandemic, but prices have been elevated for about a year.
Sept 29 (Reuters) - Shares of CarMax Inc (KMX.N) fell 20% in premarket trading on Thursday after the top U.S. used-car retailer's second-quarter results were slammed by the impact of rising inflation on consumer spending. Strong demand for personal transport has led to steady sales of both new and used cars in the United States so far, but rising interest rates and higher car prices are starting to upend that trend. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterAuto research firm Cox Automotive, which tracks U.S. vehicle market trends, on Wednesday cut its forecast for new and used vehicle sales on worsening consumer sentiment. Consumers are pulling themselves out of the purchase process as rising interest rates and high vehicle prices make monthly payments unaffordable, said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. Ford Motor Co's (F.N) shares tumbled last week after the automaker said it was experiencing higher inflationary pressures.
CarMax (KMX) – CarMax shares slumped 12.1% in premarket trading after the auto retailer missed estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer posted a wider-than-expected quarterly loss and sales that fell short of consensus. MillerKnoll (MLKN) – MillerKnoll fell 7.3% in the premarket after its quarterly profit beat analyst estimates, although revenue fell short. Jefferies Financial (JEF) – Jefferies shares rose 1.6% in premarket action after posting a better-than-expected quarterly profit. The purchases came after Occidental shares lost about 20% of their value in less than a month.
Used cars have become unaffordable
  + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN Business —High prices and rising interest rates are putting used cars out of reach for a growing number of car shoppers. That’s bad news for CarMax, the nation’s largest used car dealer. Shares of used car rival Carvana (CVNA) fell about 18% and AutoNation (AN), the nation’s largest new car dealer, fell 11%. Used car prices — although down 2% in August from the record high reached in January — are still up 48% from August 2019, according he Consumer Price Index, a key inflation measure. New car prices hit a record in August, up 30% over the last three years.
Morning Bid: Dysfunction and intervention
  + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Amid all the chaos in British bond markets, the forced intervention by the Bank of England to buy gilts has given some investors a crumb of comfort about the limits of central bank tightening. Cold comfort maybe, but enough to drag bond yields back and lift stocks briefly around the world. While 30-year gilt yields steadied just below 4% on Thursday after their 100bp swoon the previous day, the pound was sliding again and UK midcap stocks dropped. read moreEasing inflation in Spain was better news read more . Market leader Inditex (ITX.MC), the owner of Zara, slipped 2.2%, while the wider STOXX retailers index <.SXRP> slid 4.3%.
Shares of Intel (INTC) are down more than 45% this year, making it the biggest dog of the Dow. Intel (INTC) is struggling despite well-publicized plans to build more plants in the United States and hire more at home. To be fair, Intel is not the only chip company that’s having a tough time this year. But longer-term, I think Intel will right the ship,” said Jeff Travis, portfolio manager of Oak Associates Funds. Travis does think that semiconductor stocks are still a good “secular growth industry” and that valuations are now attractive given how sharply the stocks have fallen.
Stocks took a beating this week as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 75 basis points, the third consecutive hike of that magnitude. It wasn't the rate move — which was anticipated by the market — but Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments on Wednesday that hurt stocks. It was the fifth losing week out of the last six for all the major stock averages, capped by another painful drop on Friday. Also Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by another 75 basis points while maintaining its hawkish tone. ET: Personal Spending and Income (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long.)
The S & P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were all down sharply for the week. The S & P was down 4.6%, ending the week at 3,693. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard , St. Louis Fed President James Bullard , San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among the speakers. Other global central banks joined the Fed in raising rates, and interest rates around the world rose in tandem. If those levels break, the S & P could touch 3,385 before the selling is over, he said.
Despite new signs of slowing consumer demand, pockets of strength remain in travel, payments and autos. "Travel demand surged in the second quarter, and thus far, strong demand trends continue in the third quarter," CEO Bob Jordan said. Credit card companies have been showing no signs of a letup in consumer spending, too. Remember, American Express reported very strong travel and entertainment spending . And here's the key line in the release from CEO Michael Miebach who said, "Increasing inflationary pressures have yet to significantly affect overall consumer spending."
As for Ford, which reports results on Wednesday, Evercore said it expects a cut to the 2022 outlook. GM and Ford both must manage the costs of launching new electric vehicles. Ford will officially launch regular production of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup on Tuesday. In the United States, GM's sales for the first quarter fell by 20%. Ford's U.S. sales fell by 17% in the first quarter compared with a year ago.
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