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SummarySummary Companies Wall Street indexes trade lowerBenchmark 10-year yields downU.S. dollar reach two-month highOil prices fall, Safe-haven gold gainsNEW YORK, May 31 (Reuters) - Global equities and U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday as risk-off sentiment dominated markets, with investors focused on a much-anticipated vote in Congress on raising the U.S. debt ceiling. The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on Wednesday on a bipartisan deal that would lift the $31.4 trillion ceiling and allow the government to avert a default. The dollar index rose 0.577%, with the euro down 0.86% to $1.0641. Oil prices fell amid demand concerns following weak economic data from top importer China. Gold prices firmed despite the dollar's strength, though optimism about a U.S. debt deal kept bullion on course for a first monthly dip in three.
Persons: Ryan Detrick, Chibuike Oguh, John Stonestreet, Emelia Organizations: YORK, Global, Treasury, U.S . House, Democrats, Carson Group, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Benchmark, U.S, Federal Reserve, China, Brent, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York
SummarySummary Companies Gold set for first monthly fall in threeSilver, platinum, palladium face monthly lossGold defended support confluence zone at $1,940 level - analystMay 31 (Reuters) - Gold prices eased on Wednesday, set for a monthly drop, as progress in the U.S. debt ceiling deal and expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates further eroded bullion's safe-haven status. Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,955.28 per ounce by 0243 GMT, and lost 1.7% so far this month. Gold prices have come off their recent near-record highs reached early in May. Higher interest rates dull the appeal for zero-yield bullion. A hawkish build in rate expectations has translated to some resilience in place, and until that reverses, upside for gold prices may continue to remain capped, Jun Rong added.
Persons: Gold, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Yeap Jun Rong, Jun Rong, Arundhati Sarkar, Shailesh Kuber, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, IG, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bengaluru
Foreign holdings of Italian government paper increased in February after 10 consecutive monthly declines, according to Bank of Italy data. "This is a magic moment for Italian bonds," he told Reuters. The share of Italian government debt held by foreign investors fell to below 20% at the end of 2022 from around 50% before the 2008 financial crisis, Bank of Italy data shows. The Italian Treasury has already taken steps to shore up demand for its bonds as the ECB retreats, by boosting purchases among domestic households and companies. Together, Italian families and firms now hold around 215 billion euros, or 9%, of Rome's debt, UniCredit's Cazzulani said, the highest level since mid-2015.
SummarySummary Companies US dollar down 0.2%Powell: Won't rule out mild recessionPlatinum, palladium up 1%May 4 (Reuters) - Gold prices traded near record-high levels on Thursday, as U.S. yields and the dollar dipped after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted it may pause its rate-hike cycle. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,040.46 per ounce by 0249 GMT. Earlier in the session, prices rose to $2,072.19 per ounce and hovered close to an all-time high of $2,072.49 scaled in 2020. U.S. gold futures rose 0.6% at $2,050.10. Spot silver rose 0.9% at $25.82 per ounce, platinum gained 1% to $1,060.16 while palladium edged 1.4% higher to $1,443.11.
REUTERS/StaffApril 12 (Reuters) - World stocks and bond yields stalled on Wednesday as markets anticipated crucial U.S. inflation data which could give signals on how soon the Federal Reserve will end its aggressive rate hikes. Markets were in wait-and-see mode ahead of the data, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index inching up 0.3% by 0820 GMT, while Britain's FTSE (.FTSE) was up 0.6%. Government bond yields were also little moved with benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields unchanged on the day at 3.43%. "We do not assume that the discrepancy between Fed and market expectations will end today or in the near future," Reichelt said. With oil prices rising again and labour market cooling only gradually, risk remains tilted for core inflation to remain elevated for longer," they said.
Yields on U.S. 2-year Treasury notes have plunged over 100 basis points following the failure of some regional U.S. banks last month. But markets are pricing for a series of interest rate cuts starting just two months later, underscoring an exceptionally large divergence from the central bank's own view. That recent downward trend in yields is forecast to continue further, according to the April 5-12 poll of over 60 bond strategists. However, in the coming three months, yields on both 2-year and 10-year notes were expected to rise 20 and 25 basis points, respectively, before resuming their fall. Relatively high volatility has also been a driver of yield forecasts over the past few months.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.6% as trading resumed after a long holiday weekend in many major Asian markets. On Tuesday morning, South Korea's central bank held interest rates steady for a second consecutive meeting, as expected. Hong Kong stocks were tech sector gains, with the benchmark Hang Seng (.HSI) climbing 0.9%. The dollar index edged down by 0.098% to 102.36, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.15% versus the dollar to 133.4. In oil markets, U.S. crude gained 0.6% to $80.19 per barrel while Brent was at $84.65, also up 0.6%.
Dollar soothed by uneasy market calm
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers, was flat at 102.42, giving up small gains of up to 0.3% in the European morning. It has fallen for the past two sessions, and is set for a 2.1% monthly fall, a victim of the market ructions induced by problems in the banking industry. "We have returned to a sense of calm right now, but I don't think it's all over. The dollar touched a one-week high on the yen and was last up 0.7% to 131.85 yen , while the euro gained 0.7% against the yen to 143. The dollar had dropped 0.5% against the yen the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction to long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which have been rising as calm returns to markets.
The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers, gained 0.15% to 102.64. It has fallen for the past two sessions, and is set for a 2.1% monthly fall, a victim of the market ructions induced by problems in the banking industry. The dollar touched a one week high and was last up 0.8% to 131.99 yen , while the euro gained 0.6% against the yen to 142.9. The dollar had dropped 0.5% against the yen the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction to long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which have been rising as calm returns to markets. Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Jamie Freed and Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, edged 0.08% higher to 102.57 in Asian trading, following drops of about 0.3% in each of the past two sessions. The weakness comes despite a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, also the result of ebbing demand for the safest assets. The yen remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. The dollar jumped 0.59% to 131.68 yen , and touched a one-week high of 131.80. The yen had dropped 0.5% the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction with long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
Dollar on the defensive as banking fears ebb; yen drops
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
In this photo illustration, US 100 dollar bills seen on an American flag. The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, was flat in early Asian trading, following drops of about 0.3% in each of the past two sessions. The yen remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. The dollar jumped 0.51% to 131.59 yen , erasing all of the previous day's 0.5% decline, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction with long-term U.S. Treasury yields. The token had dipped as low as $26,541 on Monday, after its retreat from a nine-month high of $29,380 last week.
Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 closing down 1.65% after swinging between gains and losses during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference following the meeting. Futures markets are now pricing a Fed funds rate of around 4.25% by year-end, compared with the range of 4.75% to 5% that took effect on Wednesday. A drop in Treasury yields from recent highs has also given a tailwind to stocks, especially to big tech and growth names that are heavily weighted in the S&P 500. Corporate profits are another potential trouble spot, with S&P 500 earnings expected to post year-over-year declines in the first and second quarters after falling 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES. “I don’t think the market is going off to the races,” said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at D.A.
Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) closing down 1.65% after swinging between gains and losses during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference following the meeting. Futures markets are now pricing a Fed funds rate of around 4.25% by year-end, compared with the range of 4.75% to 5% that took effect on Wednesday. US stock market during the Fed's hiking cycleUNCERTAIN OUTLOOKStocks have been resilient this year in the face of uncertainty, with the S&P 500 up 2.5% since the end of 2022. A drop in Treasury yields from recent highs has also given a tailwind to stocks, especially to big tech and growth names that are heavily weighted in the S&P 500. Corporate profits are another potential trouble spot, with S&P 500 earnings expected to post year-over-year declines in the first and second quarters after falling 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES.
Marasciulo said bond market valuations looked better than a month ago after a sell-off that has seen benchmark U.S. and German government bond yields rise around 40 bps since February started. Near-term, Marasciulo said it made sense to bet against the market consensus, by favouring a 25 bps move from the Fed, through trades favouring a steepening of the U.S. yield curve. On the Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday for the last time under outgoing governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Marasciulo said an end to yield curve control is "very likely". "So some sort of reaction function from the BOJ would tell us that probably the yield curve control should be the first thing to be reconsidered." A termination of yield curve control, which has helped pin down Japanese government bond yields, would steepen global yield curves by raising risk premiums on bonds overall, Marasciulo added.
[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 27, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes were modestly higher, although well off session highs, Treasury yields reversed an earlier dip and the dollar pared its losses in afternoon trading. Emerging market stocks rose 0.57%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields were last nominally higher on the day, bouncing back from initial decline. The dollar lost ground against a basket of world currencies ahead of Powell's testimony and the jobs data.
[1/4] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 3, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes gained ground on Monday, appearing to extend last week's rally, with lower Treasury yields boosting interest rate-sensitive megacap stocks. European shares reversed earlier gains and were last essentially unchanged after modest China growth estimates suggested a possible dampening of demand for European goods. Emerging market stocks rose 0.64%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields continued to ease as dampening demand supported hopes that the Fed is approaching the end of its rate-hike phase.
The thinning spread between returns from stocks and bonds is set to bring the 60/40 portfolio strategy back in favor. The Fed's move to tighten monetary policy at the fastest pace in decades pumped up bond yields after nearly two years of near-zero interest rates. On the other hand, "during a recession, yields will fall and Treasury bond prices will rise," said Roberts. While the economic downturn would hit stock returns, drop in bond yields should provide some relief in such a scenario, according to analysts. "For me, the best risk-reward portfolio in this environment for now is long duration Treasury bonds, and deep value, dividend equities," Roberts said.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, shot up 0.6% last month after gaining 0.2% in December. In the 12 months through January, the PCE index accelerated 5.4% after rising 5.3% in December. "This PCE number, which to me is a vital number, clearly suggests that the Fed has more to do. ET, Dow e-minis were down 352 points, or 1.06%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 48.25 points, or 1.2%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 202.5 points, or 1.66%. A string of Fed policymakers including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Susan Collins are also slated to speak.
A one-kilogram gold bar sits at Gold Investments Ltd. bullion dealers in this arranged photograph in London, U.K., on Wednesday, July 29, 2020. Gold prices rose on Thursday, helped by a slight pullback in the dollar, although prospects of U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer kept bullion on a tight leash. Elevated interest rates dampen gold's appeal as an inflation hedge while raising the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated on Wednesday that a Fed policy rate in the range of 5.25%-5.5% would be adequate to tame inflation. Investor attention is now on the U.S. personal consumption expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due on Friday.
Gold tiptoes higher as investors focus on Fed minutes
  + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices rose marginally on Wednesday, as investors awaited minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting to assess prospects of further interest rate hikes. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,835.40 per ounce, as of 0334 GMT. "Traders will be more sensitive to hawkish clues in the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes, which could weigh on gold prices," said City Index's Simpson. "There's a greater chance of gold testing $1,800 before it tests $1,900 over the foreseeable future," given the prospects of markets repricing a higher terminal Fed rate, Simpson added. The Fed is expected to raise benchmark rates above 5% by May with a peak seen at 5.352% in July.
The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was up 0.8% at 0920 GMT, extending gains for a third straight session. Shares of Sweco AB (SWECb.ST), a Swedish construction and engineering company, jumped 11% to top the STOXX 600 following its upbeat fourth-quarter earnings. An over 5% gain in AstraZeneca (AZN.L) on 2023 earnings and revenue growth forecast boosted the healthcare sub-index (.SXDP). Of the 93 STOXX 600 companies that have reported earnings so far, more than half have beaten market expectations, Refinitiv data showed on Tuesday. Signs of economic resilience and better-than-feared corporate earnings have helped European stocks outperform their U.S. counterparts so far this year.
Many on Wall Street remain convinced that a widely expected recession is likely to roil markets once again sometime this year. Also encouraging for investors was Powell's repeated references to disinflation - a falling rate of inflation. "I think they do see a path where you can get that soft landing, that Goldilocks-type scenario play out," he said. Banks and asset managers that have reiterated recession calls in recent weeks include BlackRock, Wells Fargo and Neuberger Berman. "Do people think (rate cuts) will be in response to inflation that has been coming down or something more dramatic, in terms of economic slowdown?
Other data showed consumer confidence eased in January, with inflation expectations over the next twelve months climbing to 6.8% from 6.6% last month. Investors will also closely monitor comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the announcement for clues on the path of monetary policy. Markets will also grapple with a host of U.S. economic data this week, culminating in Friday's payrolls report for January. Economic data for the euro zone showed slight growth for the fourth quarter, but further weakness is expected this year. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.22% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.20%.
The rally comes after Treasuries notched the worst year in their history following the Fed's most aggressive monetary policy tightening since the 1980s. Some equity investors are nevertheless playing it safe, expecting the current rally in stocks to wilt if a recession hits. For now, many investors are wedded to a more dovish view, betting that policymakers will blink if growth starts to slow. "The Fed is closer to the end than the beginning, and rates usually fall across the curve when the Fed is finished raising rates." Of course, some investors are happy to take the central bank at its word and are betting rates stay higher for longer.
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate on Thursday. The swing in inventories was the wildcard and that added 1.46 percentage points to GDP growth. "If you look at the GDP data it does seem like we left 2022 with a little bit more momentum than people had thought and with consumption we're also in a pretty good spot. “We have a GDP number that is well above trend, and the previous quarter’s number was well above trend. That suggests higher rates were starting to take a bigger toll, and sets the stage for weaker growth in the first quarter of this year."
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