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☆ Stocks stall as US rates seen higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Committee members surprised markets by projecting two more 25 basis point hikes this year, sending short-term U.S. yields higher and closing out bets on any cuts in 2023. "The market takeaway was that rates would stay high for longer, rather than spike upwards in line with the shift in projected Fed funds rate." Two-year Treasury yields jumped as much as 13.5 bps in the session, before settling two bps higher at 4.69%. China cut a key benchmark, its medium-term loan rates, by 10 bps and the yuan hit a six-month low of 7.1783 per dollar. That likely confirms an end to rate hikes and the kiwi was last down 0.7% at $0.6163.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Steve Englander, Powell, Tai Hui, Bitcoin, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: ECB SINGAPORE, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Central Bank, Nikkei, Standard Chartered, Morgan Asset Management, New Zealand, ECB, Bank of Japan, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, New Zealand, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, New York, CHINA, Beijing

☆ ASIA Inflation appetizer served before central bank main course
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street's major averages continued to push higher, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq ending up well over 1%. The monthly U.S. consumer price index report is expected to show the country's inflation rate slowing from 4.9% annually to 4.1%. CPI has been a fixation for markets after it soared to 40-year highs last year, prompting aggressive monetary tightening. On Monday, data showed India's annual retail inflation cooled to a more than two-year low of 4.25% in May as cost pressures on food eased, moving closer to the Reserve Bank of India's target of 4%. The Fed is part of a generous helping of central bank meetings this week, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan also on tap.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Deepa Babington Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, CPI, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank, European Central Bank and Bank of, Brent, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Lewis, U.S, Australia, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, Japan

The EPL was raised from its initial 25% rate to 35% in November, bringing the overall tax burden to 75%. With Friday's changes the windfall tax would fall away, reducing the tax burden to 40%, if average oil and gas prices fall to or below $71.40 a barrel for oil and 0.54 pounds ($0.6784) per therm for gas in two consecutive quarters. However, the government said independent price forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility suggest the price floor mechanism is unlikely to be triggered before the windfall tax’s planned end date in March 2028. UK North Sea oil and gas producers including TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) and Harbour (HBR.L) have said the levy would result in them cutting investment in the basin. Reuters GraphicsBritain was a net exporter of oil as recently as the 2000s, but now depends on both oil and gas imports.

Persons: Sarah Young, Shadia Nasralla, William James, Kate Holton, David Goodman Organizations: Brent, OPEC, Iraq, Reuters Graphics Britain, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Britain

An uptick in economic activity from China and with it fuel demand could quickly change sentiment in the market, he said. "I could paint the picture this could turn around quite quickly," Parfitt said. NATURAL GASThe natural gas market has tightened since the Ukraine war started because Russia shut in some production when it lost European buyers due to sanctions and damage to pipelines. Chevron sees Europe as a strong market for short- to medium-term gas demand as Europe seeks to substitute Russian supply, he said. Chevron is a big natural gas producer, and pumps more than half its output from the United States and Australia.

Persons: You've, Colin Parfitt, midstream, Parfitt, " Parfitt, I'm, Stephanie Kelly, Simon Webb, Deepa Babington Organizations: YORK, Chevron, Reuters, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, Asia, United States, Australia

☆ Oil prices pop 2.5% after Saudi Arabia pledges more voluntary production cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Oil prices jumped following OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia's decision to cut production by another million barrels per day. On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners — collectively known as OPEC+ — made no changes to its planned oil production cuts for this year, but coalition chair — and de-factor leader — Saudi Arabia announced further voluntary declines. "The market did not widely expect the Saudi decision to cut production by 1 million barrels per day unilaterally," President of Rapidan Energy Bob McNally told CNBC in an e-mail following the decision. "It once again demonstrated that Saudi Arabia is willing to act unilaterally to stabilize oil prices," McNally said, citing the example of January 2021 when the oil titan unilaterally cut by production by 1 million barrels per day. On April 3, several producers of the oil cartel OPEC+ revealed a combined 1.66 million barrels per day of production declines until the end of this year.

Persons: —, Rapidan Energy Bob McNally, McNally, Ruxandra Iordache Organizations: Saudi, Organization of, Petroleum, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Rapidan Energy, CNBC Locations: OPEC, — Saudi Arabia, Asia, Saudi, Saudi Arabia

☆ Cramer urges patience with the market: 'It doesn't make a lot of sense to get in after the run'
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | In Kevinstankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Stocks mixed Crude higher PANW downgrade 1. However, Saudi Arabia's decision to reduce output isn't changing our outlook on sitting tight when it comes to the Club's oil stocks. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

Persons: Jim Cramer, Stocks, Jim, We've, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Apple, Global, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Palo Alto Networks, Palo Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Palo Alto

These comments represent just one of the contradictions in the current oil market. The desire for a stable oil market is extremely difficult to reconcile with being unpredictable. But the risk is that the increase isn't sustained, largely as a result of another oil market contradiction. It's another contradiction for the oil market to resolve as those three exporters are all under some form of Western sanctions. It may well be the case that the second half of this year sees a huge pick-up in crude oil demand.

Persons: Prince Abdulaziz bin, Brent, Sonali Paul Organizations: Organization of, Petroleum, Saudi Energy, Brent, International Energy Agency, SECOND, Saudi Aramco, Aramco, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Saudi, OPEC, Vienna, Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia

Saudi's energy ministry said the country's output would drop to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest reduction in years. "This is a Saudi lollipop," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz told a news conference. EXTENSION TO END OF 2024OPEC+ has in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April. In addition to extending the existing OPEC+ cuts of 3.66 million bpd, the group also agreed on Sunday to reduce overall production targets from January 2024 by a further 1.4 million bpd versus current targets to a combined of 40.46 million bpd. By contrast, the United Arab Emirates was allowed to raise output targets by around 0.2 million bpd to 3.22 million bpd.

Persons: Prince Abdulaziz, Brent, Amrita Sen, Gary Ross, Giovanni Staunovo, Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler, Maha El Dahan, Julia Payne, Dmitry Zhdannikov, David Holmes, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Saudi, UAE, Saudi Energy, Organization of, Petroleum, Brent, OPEC, Analysts, Energy, Veteran OPEC, Black Gold, UBS, United Arab, Thomson Locations: Russian, Angolan, VIENNA, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Saudi, Russia, Ukraine, Nigeria, Angola, United Arab Emirates

Four sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions have told Reuters that additional production cuts were being discussed among options for Sunday's session. Three out of four sources said cuts could amount to 1 million bpd on top of existing cuts of 2 million bpd and voluntary cuts of 1.6 million bpd, announced in a surprise move in April and which took effect in May. If approved, the new cut would take the total volume of reductions to 4.66 million bpd, or around 4.5% of global demand. Typically, production cuts take effect the month after they are agreed but ministers could also agree a later implementation. Three OPEC+ sources also said the group will address the issue of baselines for 2023 and 2024, from which each member performs cuts.

Persons: Prince Abdulaziz, Sunday's, Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler, Maha El Dahan, Julia Payne, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Hugh Lawson, Emelia Organizations: OPEC, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, Brent, Saudi Arabia's Energy, Thomson Locations: VIENNA, Nigeria, Angola, OPEC, Russia, West, UAE, Ukraine, China, India

☆ OPEC+ meets to debate production quotas, new cut: Sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In October last year, the oil cartel announced its decision to cut output by two million barrels per day. OPEC and its allies will meet on Sunday to debate a new deal possibly adjusting countries' output quotas and a further cut in production, sources told Reuters, as the group faces flagging oil prices and a looming supply glut. Four sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions have told Reuters that additional production cuts were being discussed among options for Sunday's session. Three out of four sources said cuts could amount to 1 million bpd on top of existing cuts of 2 million bpd and voluntary cuts of 1.6 million bpd, announced in a surprise move in April and which took effect in May. If approved, the new cut would take the total volume of reductions to 4.66 million bpd, or around 4.5% of global demand.

Organizations: OPEC, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, Brent Locations: OPEC, Russia

Three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Friday cuts were being discussed among options for Sunday's session, when OPEC+ ministers gather at 2 p.m. (1200 GMT) in Vienna. The sources said cuts could amount to 1 million bpd on top of existing cuts of 2 million bpd and voluntary cuts of 1.6 million bpd, announced in a surprise move in April and which took effect in May. If approved, this would take the total volume of reductions to 4.66 million bpd, or around 4.5% of global demand. The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to rise further in the second half of 2023, potentially boosting oil prices. "There is simply too much supply," the JPMorgan analysts said in a note, noting extra cuts could amount to around 1 million bpd.

Persons: Leonhard, Russia's Novak, Hayan Abdel, Ghani, Suhail Al Mazroui, Prince Abdulaziz, Alexander Novak, Novak, Edward Moya, OANDA, Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler, Maha El Dahan, Julia Payne, Dmitry Zhdannikov, David Holmes Organizations: Austrian, REUTERS, LONDON, OPEC, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, UAE's Energy, Brent, Saudi Arabia's Energy, International Energy Agency, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Vienna, Austria, Saudi, OPEC, Russia, Ukraine, China, India, Russian

Three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Friday that cuts were being discussed among options for Sunday's session. The three sources said cuts could amount to 1 million bpd on top of existing cuts of 2 million bpd and voluntary cuts of 1.6 million bpd, announced in a surprise move in April and which took effect in May. If approved, this would take the total volume of reductions to 4.66 million bpd, or around 4.5% of global demand. Typically production cuts take effect the month after they are agreed, but ministers could also agree a later implementation. Two OPEC sources said the ministers could also discuss new production baselines from which each member performs cuts.

Persons: Leonhard, Hayan Abdel, Ghani, Suhail Al Mazroui, Prince Abdulaziz, Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler, Maha El Dahan, Julia Payne, Dmitry Zhdannikov, David Holmes, Frances Kerry, Christina Fincher Organizations: Austrian, REUTERS, OPEC, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, UAE's Energy, Brent, Saudi Arabia's Energy, International Energy Agency, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Vienna, Austria, Saudi, OPEC, VIENNA, Russia, Ukraine, China, India, West, Nigeria, Angola, UAE

Three OPEC+ sources said cuts were being discussed among options for Sunday, when OPEC+ ministers gather at 2 p.m. in Vienna (1200 GMT). The sources said cuts could amount to 1 million bpd on top of existing cuts of 2 million bpd and voluntary cuts of 1.6 million bpd that was announced in a surprise move in April. Earlier, two OPEC+ sources said they did not expect the group to agree further cuts. "We will never hesitate to take any decision to achieve more balance and stability (on) the global oil market," Iraq's Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said on arriving in Vienna. The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to rise further in the second half of 2023, potentially boosting oil prices.

Persons: JP Morgan, Hayan Abdel, Ghani, Prince Abdulaziz, Alexander Novak, Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler, Maha El Dahan, Julia Payne, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Kirsten Donovan, Barbara Lewis, Marguerita Choy Organizations: OPEC, Reuters, Organization of, Petroleum, Brent, Saudi Arabia's Energy, International Energy Agency, JP, Rapidan Energy Group, Thomson Locations: Saudi, VIENNA, Russia, OPEC, Vienna, Russian

Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has been matched by soft outcomes in other important parts of the world's second-biggest economy. Rather it is construction and manufacturing that propel commodity demand, especially for steel raw material iron ore and for copper. The softness in those sectors is likely to show up in commodity imports in coming months, but not yet. Seaborne iron ore imports are expected at about 93.29 million tonnes, according to Refinitiv data, which would be stronger than the 90.44 million tonnes recorded by customs in April. If this is the case, it's likely that they may consider trimming imports in coming months, especially if the run of soft economic data continues.

Persons: it's, Robert Birsel Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Refinitiv Oil Research, Global, Brent, Singapore, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, March's

LONDON/DUBAI, June 1 (Reuters) - OPEC and its allies are unlikely to deepen supply cuts at their ministerial meeting on Sunday despite a fall in oil prices toward $70 per barrel, four sources from the alliance told Reuters. It brought total output cuts to 3.66 million bpd, or about 4% of global consumption. In March 2020, it abandoned production quotas altogether, launching a Saudi-Russian price war at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic that sent oil prices 25% lower. It quickly re-established quotas with its biggest output cut to date of about 10 million bpd, agreed in April, 2020. OPEC has said it expects oil demand growth to reach 2.33 million bpd this year as non-OPEC supplies grow by 1.4 million bpd.

Persons: Brent, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Alexander Novak, Goldman Sachs, Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler, Rowena Edwards, Maha El, Simon Webb, Barbara Lewis Organizations: LONDON, OPEC, Reuters, Organization of, Petroleum, West, Brent, Saudi Energy, Saudi, HSBC, Thomson Locations: DUBAI, Russia, West African, Nigeria, Angola, Kurdistan Region, Iraq, Vienna, Russian, China, 2H23, OPEC, London, Maha El Dahan, Dubai, Moscow

☆ Asia stocks slump to monthly loss as China data disappoints
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Australian dollar is sliding towards a fourth consecutive monthly loss and at $0.6492 is barely above last week's seven-month lows. Aussie stocks (.AXJO) are eying their worst month since February with a 2.4% drop. Based on these factors, we raise our end-2023 targets for Japanese stocks, to 2,300 for TOPIX and 32,500 for the Nikkei 225." Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 12.4 basis points overnight and fell another 1.5 bps on Wednesday in Asian trade to 3.6808%. The drop in yields put a pause in what looks to be the U.S. dollar's best monthly rally since February.

Persons: stockmarkets, Carol Kong, Masashi Akutsu, Joe Biden, Treasuries, Philip Lowe, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of America, Republican, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Japan, SINGAPORE, Pacific, U.S, United States

☆ Ryanair reports bumper profit on 'favorable' fuel hedges, sees major industry consolidation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Ryanair reported a bumper full-year profit for 2022/23 on the back of resurgent traffic and favorable oil hedges. Ryanair on Monday posted a full-year net profit of 1.43 billion euros ($1.55 billion), aided by resurgent traffic and fares, along with favorable oil hedging positions. The Irish low-cost carrier reported a 74% increase in full-year traffic to 168.6 million customers, while fares were up 10% on pre-Covid levels. $64bbl) contributed significantly to the final FY23 profit outcome, saving the Group over €1.4bn," CEO Michael O'Leary said in Monday's earnings report. But he said Ryanair is confident it can cover the cost increase and grow profits "modestly" on a year-on-year basis.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 19 (Reuters) - Chinese refiners dipped into crude oil inventories in April for the first time in 18 months, as high processing rates exceeded the volume of crude available from both imports and domestic output. The volume of crude available to refiners from imports and domestic output in April was 59.71 million tonnes, equivalent to 14.53 million bpd. For April, the total amount of crude available was 340,000 bpd below the volume processed by refiners, the first time since November 2021 that refiners have drawn on inventories. CRUDE IMPORTS RECOVEROn the crude import side the picture is more interesting, with April arrivals the lowest since January at 10.3 million bpd. For May, it seems likely that imports will recover, with Refinitiv Oil Research estimating arrivals of 11.83 million bpd, a jump of 1.53 million bpd from April's soft outcome.

As a result, the combined position had been reduced to just 302 million barrels (7th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on May 2 from 534 million barrels (38th percentile) on April 18. The position has essentially returned to where it was on March 21 (289 million barrels, 2.16:1) before OPEC⁺ surprised investors by announcing production cuts on April 2 totalling more than 1 million barrels per day. Chartbook: Oil and gas positionsThe most recent week saw sales across the board in Brent (-69 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-37 million), European gas oil (-24 million), U.S. diesel (-11 million) and U.S. gasoline (-4 million). Fund managers had become especially bearish on middle distillates such as diesel and gas oil, the most exposed to the business cycle. Funds sold the equivalent of 71 billion cubic feet over the seven days ending on May 2, after selling 99 billion cubic feet the week before.

Shell shares were up 0.8% by 1242 GMT. "In Q1, Shell delivered strong results and robust operational performance, against a backdrop of ongoing volatility," Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan said in a statement. Sawan, who took the helm in January, told reporters he was focused on narrowing a wide gap in the share performance of Shell and its European peers against their U.S. rivals. Lower natural gas prices in the quarter weighed on Shell's giant integrated gas business, with profits slumping 18% to $4.9 billion. Shell showed "strong operational performance in the quarter across all divisions with oil and gas trading playing a key role," Jefferies analyst Giacomo Romeo said in a note.

☆ ConocoPhillips beats first-quarter profit on high fuel demand, tight supplies
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Companies Conocophillips FollowMay 4 (Reuters) - U.S. shale producer ConocoPhillips (COP.N) beat Wall Street estimates for first-quarter profit on Thursday as sustained fuel demand and tight crude supplies kept oil prices elevated. Crude prices had surged to multi-year highs last year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended global energy markets. The company’s total average realized price was $60.86 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) for the reported quarter, 21% lower than last year. The largest U.S. independent oil company said first-quarter production was 1.79 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), an increase of 45,000 boepd from the same period a year earlier. Excluding items, ConocoPhillips reported a profit of $2.38 per share, for the three months ended March 31, compared with analysts' average estimate of $2.10 per share, according to Refinitiv data.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationSummarySummary Companies Shell maintains dividend unchangedAnnounces $4 bln in share buybacksLONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Shell (SHEL.L) on Thursday posted first-quarter net profit of $9.65 billion, topping analysts' forecasts, as strong earnings from fuel trading and higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales offset cooling energy prices. Lower natural gas prices in the quarter weighed on Shell's giant integrated gas business, with profits slumping 18% to $4.9 billion. Shell shares were up 2% by 0830 GMT. Reuters GraphicsPROFITS BEATShell reported adjusted earnings of $9.65 billion in the first quarter, exceeding a company-provided analyst forecast of $8 billion. That compared with earnings of $9.1 billion a year earlier and $9.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, when Shell reported a record annual profit of $40 billion.

This was down from March's 27.6 million bpd, which in turn was lower than February's 29.4 million bpd and the 29.13 million bpd in January. Asia crude oil imports vs Brent priceINDIA SLOWS IMPORTSThis could extend to other major buyers in Asia, with the region's second-biggest importer India showing signs of moderating crude appetite in April. Imports were estimated at 4.60 million bpd in April, down from the eight-month high of 5.02 million bpd in March. Russian crude is also winning against Saudi oil in China, with April arrivals of 2.10 million bpd beating out the 1.73 million bpd from the Middle East's top exporter. The overall view on Asia's imports is that April showed a loss of momentum after a strong start to the year.

SummarySummary Companies Shell, Equinor shares outperform sector indexRivals BP, Chevron, Exxon also beat expectationsOil and gas prices slumped in first quarterShell shares up 2.1%, Equinor up 2.7%LONDON/OSLO, May 4 (Reuters) - Energy giants Shell (SHEL.L) and Equinor (EQNR.OL) reported higher-than-expected first-quarter profits on Thursday, using the heft of their trading desks to offset lower oil and gas prices. The stronger-than-expected profits from the two companies follow forecast beating results from rivals Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), Chevron and BP over the past week. Shell's shares were up around 2.1% in early trading and Equinor shares rose around 2.7%, outperforming a European index of oil and gas companies (.SXEP) which was up around 1%. Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel in the first three months of the year, down 16% from a year earlier and 7% from the fourth-quarter. Lower natural gas prices also weighed on Shell's giant integrated gas business, with profits slumping 18% on the quarter.

First-quarter underlying replacement cost profit, the company's definition of net income, reached $4.96 billion, up from $4.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022 and above expectations of $4.3 billion in a company-provided survey of analysts. The profit reflects "an exceptional gas marketing and trading result, a lower level of refinery turnaround activity and a very strong oil trading result", BP said, noting the partial offset from lower oil and gas prices and refining margins. BP had reported a $6.25 billion profit in the first quarter of 2022. Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel in the first three months of the year, down 16% from a year earlier and 7% from the fourth-quarter. BP's profit hit a record $28 billion in 2022 on soaring energy prices and market volatility which benefited its large trading business.

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