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The currency has weakened over 7% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2022. It was then expected to rally to 1.31 in a year, versus 1.30 expected in last month's poll. "That implied spread between terminal rates in Canada and the United States will probably have to widen out further and that could take the U.S. dollar higher across the board including against the Canadian dollar." Investors are betting on a terminal rate, or peak level for interest rates, from the BoC in the coming months of 4.25%. "We see less interest in investing money back into the ground in the oil patch when oil prices are high and so there's less room (for the currency) to fall when oil prices are low."
Canadian factory sector's slowdown deepens in October
  + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
TORONTO, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Canadian manufacturing activity contracted for a third straight month in October as production and new orders fell, while recent pressure on the Canadian dollar contributed to a jump in output prices, data showed on Tuesday. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 48.8 in October from 49.8 in September. In August, it touched its lowest level in more than two years at 48.7. The output index fell to 47.4 from 48.3 in September as high prices, labour shortages and weak demand weighed, while the new orders measure was down to 46.0 from 46.9. The future output index fell to its lowest level since May 2020 at 58.1.
TSX tech issue resolved after complete trading halt
  + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
OTTAWA, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The Toronto Stock Exchange(TSX) said its trading platforms were now running normally after about an hour of technical issues which led to the halt of all equities trading on Tuesday morning. TSX-operator TMX Group posted a tweet about a connection issue with Canada's largest stock exchange at 10:12 local time (1412 GMT). TMX said it experienced a technical issue that impacted client connectivity on its equities markets. The issue was resolved and TSX's trading system status website showed all trading platforms and all related components were functioning normally at 11:20 local time. Reporting by Ismail Shakil in Ottawa and Fergal Smith in Toronto; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
But inside the walls at Ware, one of the state’s largest juvenile detention facilities, children have been trying to kill themselves with stunning regularity. In Louisiana, where brutal conditions prompted juvenile justice reform two decades ago, the system is again in crisis. Most Ware guards are Black, as well, though nearly all of its leaders are white, as are the local judge, sheriff and district attorney. “Of course, they still do.” In reports to the state, Ware’s nurses described carpet burns on children’s faces and head-to-toe bruises from restraints. In fact, of the four guards convicted of sexually assaulting children at Ware, Mr. Peace would be the only one imprisoned.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 182.75 points, or nearly 1%, at 19,279.76, its highest closing level since Oct. 4. The Toronto market's energy group rose 1.8% as U.S. crude oil futures settled 3% higher at $87.91 a barrel. The materials group, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, added 1.8%, while industrials ended 1.3% higher. Shares of Rogers Communications Inc jumped 5.8%, while Shaw Communications Inc (SJRb.TO) shares were up 7.2% as investors bet that Canada is likely to approve Rogers Communications' bid for Shaw. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Cynthia OstermanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
OTTAWA, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada announced a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike on Wednesday and said it was getting closer to the point where rate hikes could end, as it forecast the economy could possibly slip into a slight recession. The central bank increased its policy rate by half a percentage point to 3.75%, coming up short on calls for another 75 basis points move. Macklem added that the central bank was still far from its goal of low, stable and predictable inflation at 2%, but was trying to balance the risks of under- and over-tightening. Inflation in Canada has slowed to 6.9% in September from a peak of 8.1% in June, but core measures remain broad-based and persistent. The central bank revised downward its inflation outlook a touch on lower commodity prices and easing supply chain disruptions.
The central bank, in a regular decision, increased its policy rate to 3.75% from 3.25% and has now lifted rates by 350-bp since March. JIMMY JEAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DESJARDINS GROUP"It's surprising to see the Bank of Canada going against market and consensus expectations on the dovish side. But I think it says that they're now moving to that place where they're going to acknowledge the impact that they're already seeing. I think it was a close call between 50 and 75 (bps rate hike). Clearly, the Bank of Canada believes it's getting close to the so called terminal rate and I think they wanted to leave a few more options open."
The Toronto Stock Exchange sign is seen in Toronto, Ontario, Canada July 6, 2017. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 95.11 points, or 0.5%, at 18,579.29. Money markets expect the central bank to tighten by at least another 50 basis points at a policy announcement next week. The Toronto market's heavily weighted financials sector fell 1.2% while industrials ended 2.1% lower. Still, its shares ended 0.6% lower.
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThat may be just what the central bank is looking for, said analysts. Inflation in Canada edged down to 6.9% in September, below June's peak of 8.1%, though still well above the Bank of Canada's 2% target. A majority of Canadian firms, meanwhile, think a recession is now likely in the next 12 months, a Bank of Canada survey showed this week. This means the central bank will not start cutting rates until inflation is "within shouting distance" of the 1-3% control range, he said. "I don't think they necessarily are aiming for a recession," said Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities.
OTTAWA, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate edged down but exceeded forecasts in September while underlying price pressures were largely unchanged, data showed on Wednesday, amplifying calls for another hefty rate hike by the central bank next week. Inflation was 6.9%, ahead of forecasts of 6.8% and down from 7.0% in August. All three of the Bank of Canada's core measures of inflation, its preferred yardsticks for underlying inflation, were flat in September, with the average of the three matching August's upwardly revised 5.3%. The bank has hiked rates by 300 bps since March and made clear more increases are coming. But it was lower gasoline prices that edged the annual inflation rate down, while consumers paid 11.4% more for their groceries, the largest gain since August 1981.
Canadian inflation edged down to 6.9% in September, a notch ahead of forecasts of 6.8% and down from 7.0% in August. "So I think it keeps the Bank of Canada on track to deliver another so-called supersized hike." The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise its policy rate at its next decision on Oct. 26. "I think that the Bank of Canada should hike by 75 (bp) next week," he added. On the month, Canada's consumer price index rose 0.1%, slightly ahead of forecasts that it would remain flat.
OTTAWA, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate inched down to 6.9% in September, the third consecutive monthly deceleration, as lower prices at the gas pump offset another 41-year high in food costs, Statistics Canada data showed on Wednesday. The headline inflation number was a notch ahead of analyst forecasts of 6.8% but down from 7.0% in August. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% from a rise of 5.3% in August. It now stands at 3.25%On the month, Canada's consumer price index rose 0.1%, slightly ahead of forecasts that it would remain flat. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3760 to the greenback, or 72.67 U.S. cents.
OTTAWA, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Business sentiment has softened in Canada and most firms now think a recession is likely, a Bank of Canada survey showed on Monday, but inflation expectations remain high, leaving the central bank little choice but to continue raising rates. The bank's Business Outlook Survey showed 77% of firms see price growth staying above 3% for the next two years. A separate survey showed near-term consumer inflation expectations at record highs, though longer term expectations have eased, providing some relief. "Still-high expectations for inflation will keep the Bank of Canada in rate hike mode," said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, in a note. That is cause for concern for the central bank as it seeks to avoid a wage-price spiral, analysts said.
La Jolla , Calif.Alexis Smith is not quite a feminist artist, not quite a conceptualist, not quite an installation artist, not always an ironist, and in the beginning she wasn’t even Alexis Smith. In her art, however, Ms. Smith is at times all of those things. Collage—intimate and mural-sized—is her metier, and her sensibility is more literary than plastic. One could easily get the idea from the 50 works on view in “Alexis Smith: The American Way” at the Museum of Contemporary Art San Diego in La Jolla that the artist has read most of the Great Books of the Western World and seen almost every movie and stage musical ever made. This is slyly accomplished by—to describe a typical Smith collage—a small pictorial souvenir from popular culture coupled with a few typewritten words from, for example, a Raymond Chandler L.A. detective novel.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 287.28 points, or 1.5%, at 18,326.25. "The interest rate sensitive sectors of the market like housing is cooling down at a meaningful pace." Canadian home sales fell 3.9% in September from August, with actual monthly activity about 12% below the pre-pandemic 10-year average, data from the Canadian Real Estate Association showed. read moreThe Toronto market's energy group fell 3.4% as U.S. crude oil futures settled 3.9% lower at $85.61 a barrel. The materials group, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, lost 4% as gold and copper prices declined.
Short covering helps 'oversold' TSX snap losing streak
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 407.35 points, or 2.2%, at 18,613.63, ending a streak of five straight daily declines. Earlier in the day, the index touched its lowest since February 2021 at 17,873.18. U.S. stocks also rallied as investors covered short positions and technical support helped drive a rebound. read moreThe Toronto market's energy sector rose 3.3% as U.S. crude oil futures settled 2.1% higher at $89.11 a barrel, supported by low levels of diesel inventory. read moreUtilities rebounded 2.6% after falling sharply since August and industrials ended 1.8% higher.
TSX falls for fifth day as utilities slide
  + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 10.40 points, or 0.1%, at 18,206.28. That was well above the worst levels of the day but was the fifth straight day of losses and the lowest closing level since March 2021. read moreThe Toronto market's utilities sector fell 2.5%, extending recent declines, while energy was down 0.1% as oil prices fell for a third day. U.S. crude oil futures settled 2.3% lower at $87.27 a barrel. read moreHelping to cap losses for the index, the materials group, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, added 1.1% as gold prices rose and the consumer staples sector ended 1.5% higher.
TSX hits 19-month low as global recession risk weighs
  + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Investors were already on edge ahead of a key U.S. inflation report this week that could cement additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. read more"I think we are seeing the rate hikes really in full effect now," said Allan Small, senior investment adviser at the Allan Small Financial Group with iA Private Wealth. "The fear is that because the rate hikes have a lagging effect on the economy, we will not feel the full effect of these rate hikes until perhaps 3-6 months down the road." The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast for 2023, warning that conditions could worsen significantly next year. Heavily-weighted financials lost 2.3% and technology was down nearly 3%.
A Canada Goose store in the CF Toronto Eaton Centre shopping mall in Toronto, Ontario, Canada December 13, 2021. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File PhotoOTTAWA, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Canadian economic activity edged up a surprise 0.1% in July, driven by strong oil sand production, while gross domestic product was most likely flat in August, Statistics Canada data showed on Thursday. Statistics Canada said growth in goods-producing industries more than offset the first decline in services-producing industries since January. Canada's agricultural sector also helped drive economic growth, with crop production up 7.2%, mainly on volumes of wheat and other grains. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterDemand for Canadian wheat has increased since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Russia calls a special military operation, helping push up export volumes.
The Canadian economy grew 0.1% in July, compared with analysts' forecast for a 0.1% decline, Statistics Canada data showed. Growth in goods-producing industries more than offset the first decrease in services-producing industries since January. "After a solid first half of the year, momentum appears to be slowing as multi-decade-high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates weigh on the economy," Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Economics, said in a note. Hot inflation means the Bank of Canada will likely hike interest rates at its next decision in late October, but then the game may change, economists said. "The deceleration in economic momentum is why we see the Bank of Canada only hiking rates once more in October," Mendes said.
A Canadian dollar coin, commonly called a "loonie," and an American dollar bill are seen in this staged photo in Toronto, March 17, 2010. ,A lower terminal rate for the BoC than the Fed is not uncommon, but it threatens to pour cold water on Canadian dollar bulls' expectations that interest rate differentials would help underpin the currency over the coming year. The Canadian dollar has weakened 7.5% against the greenback since the start of the year. Canada's housing market has slowed rapidly in recent months, while its share of the economy, at 9%, is nearly twice that of the U.S. housing market. "Canada's economy is simply more interest rate sensitive than the U.S. economy," said Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins.
Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. REUTERS/Blair Gable/File PhotoOTTAWA, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Inflation is too high in Canada, so the Bank of Canada needs to increase interest rates to slow spending and give the economy time to catch up, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Monday in a video posted by the central bank on Twitter. "Inflation is too high," Macklem said in a video tagged #AskTheBoC, echoing remarks made earlier this month after the central bank hiked its policy rate by 75-basis points to 3.25%. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe Bank of Canada, like many of its global peers, is rapidly increasing interest rates in response to inflation running at levels not seen in decades. The central bank has lifted rates by 300 basis points in just six months as it looks to wrangle inflation back to the 2% target.
The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 521.70 points, or 2.8%, at 18,480.98, its biggest decline since June 16 and its lowest closing level in more than two months. Wall Street's main indexes also closed sharply lower but not as much as the Toronto market. read moreThat added to pressure on the Canadian dollar. "While yields can continue to move up you are seeing a coupon that will at least absorb some of that."
BRASILIA, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank on Wednesday decided to keep interest rates unchanged, pausing an aggressive monetary tightening cycle even as policymakers in the United States and other major economies are still racing to catch up with inflation. The bank's rate-setting committee, known as Copom, decided by a vote of 7-to-2 to leave its benchmark Selic interest at 13.75% after 12 consecutive increases. read moreBrazil's central bank decided to stop hiking rates after consumer prices registered their second straight monthly drop in August, helped by tax cuts on fuel and energy. read moreEconomists are already debating when Brazil's interest rates might start falling again – including Economy Minister Paulo Guedes himself, who predicted rate cuts in early 2023. However, central bank directors have taken a harsher tone in recent public comments, stressing it is too early to start discussing lower rates as the battle with inflation is not done.
OTTAWA, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Inflation in Canada remains "too high" but is headed in the right direction, a Bank of Canada official said on Tuesday, adding that the central bank will do whatever is needed to bring price increases back to target. While we're headed in the right direction, that's still too high," Beaudry said in prepared remarks provided ahead of the speech. While some have argued policymakers need to engineer a recession to avoid this, Beaudry said the bank is working to convince Canadians the current period of high inflation is temporary and it will tame surging prices. Still, economists said if consumer and business surveys due out next month show inflation has become more entrenched, the Bank of Canada may have to change its tune. The Bank of Canada has boosted its policy rate by 300-basis points in six months and earlier this month signaled it was not yet done.
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