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Read previewEconomist David Rosenberg has been sounding the recession alarm in recent months, and he now thinks that the likelihood is much greater that the US sees a contraction this year. The head of Rosenberg Research said he believes that a recession is four times more likely than an economic expansion, and it's just a matter of time as more signals kick in until the recession narrative comes back into focus. [H]istorically, when that's happening, unless it's an aberration, you have a four times greater chance of being in a recession than in an expansion. I think the recession narrative is going to come back, you know, in a, in a fuller view," Rosenberg said. And what that's telling you is that it's getting tougher and tougher for the backlog of unemployed to find a new job," he said.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg wasn't, Christopher Columbus, Isabella Ferdinand, it's, Rosenberg, They've Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, CNBC Locations: United States
Read previewFrom a missing panel to a tire falling off midair, United Airlines has experienced multiple high-profile safety incidents over the past few weeks. Instead, some aviation experts have pointed to a possible trend in United's maintenance safety systems. Regarding the missing panel, he said, "that smacks of a maintenance problem of United Airlines." Former Delta Air Lines chief pilot, Alan Price, noted safety redundancies in some events played out as they were designed to. Kirby said safety enhancements like an extra day of pilot training and a "centralized training curriculum" for new-hire mechanics, which were planned before the recent safety events, are actively being deployed.
Persons: , Max, That's, Arthur Rosenberg, Richard Aboulafia, Steve Ganyard, Alan Price, Kit Darby, Mark Millam, Scott Kirby, Kirby Organizations: Service, United Airlines, Airbus, Boeing, Business, Fox News, Tires, Aviation, ABC, Denver International Airport ,, Aviation Safety Network, Former Delta Air Lines, Associated Press, CBS, Flight Safety Foundation, Alaska Airlines Locations: Houston, San Francisco, United, Denver, Denver International Airport , Colorado, USA
Read previewRisk is back in fashion on Wall Street as investors shed their fears and become more adventurous with their cash. Wall Street is betting big on a soft landing, where the Fed succeeds in bringing inflation down without unemployment surging or a recession taking hold. Related storiesSimilarly, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent outlook that "risk appetite is poised to grow" this year as recession relief and rate cuts embolden investors. When the music stopsThe outlook for stocks and the economy might seem brighter, but it's worth being at least a little skeptical of the current enthusiasm. "Nobody seems to care about valuations, and now you have Wall Street strategists laying claim that we are in a brand new era," veteran economist David Rosenberg said in a recent note.
Persons: , BII, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham, there's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Investors, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nvidia, Grantham, Swissquote Bank Locations: BlackRock
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why Rosenberg Research founder is still expecting a recession this yearDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss why he is sticking with his recession call, what's been surprising on the growth side of the economy, and more.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, what's Organizations: Rosenberg Research
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
Eight economists, investment chiefs, and strategists that Business Insider recently spoke to credited healthier-than-anticipated consumer balance sheets and spending for the continued expansion. "Either that, or they're going to be maxed out — they can't get any more money. They're not going to have any liquidity to be able to continue to do the things they're going to do." He's also sticking with defensive stocks as consumer spending softens, including those in the consumer staples sector like Clorox (CLX) and Procter & Gamble (PG). Real estate is a "hated asset class" that's negatively correlated with interest rates, Sekera said.
Persons: shouldn't, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, they're, Sue Crotty, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clark Bellin, Bellin, David Rosenberg, They're, Rob Swanke, Swanke, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Dave Sekera, Sekera, Christopher Barto, Gordon, Clissold, He's, Morningstar's Sekera, Crotty, Segal Marco Advisors, She's, Barto, that's Organizations: Business, Consumers, Segal Marco, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Commonwealth Financial Network, Nasdaq, Morningstar, Fort Pitt Capital Group, Procter, Gamble, Federal Reserve, Exxon, APA Corp, Duke Energy, Segal, Energy, Healthcare Locations: Devon, Real, NiSource
Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American
The odds of a recession are "very high" in the US, according to Joe LaVorgna. AdvertisementThe odds of the economy tipping into a recession are "very high," as the US is poised to see a wave of unemployment and a major drop in consumer spending. Advertisement"All three of those metrics are still flashing recession," LaVorgna said. AdvertisementStrong consumer spending on goods also looks poised to drop, which could end up dragging economic growth lower, LaVorgna said. "It makes me think recession risk … still has a very high probability," he added.
Persons: Joe LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Organizations: Service, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Investor Locations: Nikko
A US soft landing looks likely, but rising unemployment is cause for worry, Paul Krugman wrote in The New York Times. AdvertisementThe US economy is comfortably in soft landing territory, but Paul Krugman says it isn't altogether clear that it will stay that way. February's jobs report triggered these concerns, as the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% from 3.7%. Krugman notes that on other fronts, however, soft landing advocates have a stronger case. While consumer price index inflation data has outpaced expectations two months in a row now, these recent reports are not completely in line with reality, Krugman wrote.
Persons: Paul Krugman, , He's, Krugman, David Rosenberg, That's, Biden, we're Organizations: The New York Times, Service, New York Times
That's because aggressive Fed rate hikes haven't been fully felt across the economy. AdvertisementA wave of layoffs could be coming as companies deal with the reality of higher interest rates, economists say. The peak unemployment rate during the Great Recession was 10% in 2009. Following revisions to the prior two months' figures, the unemployment rate also rose to 3.9% in February, its highest level in two years. The unemployment rate is a classic lagging indicator."
Persons: David Rosenberg, , what's, Steve Briggs, Briggs, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Briggs, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fitch
Ghislaine Maxwell's lawyers are arguing for her release in a federal appeals court. The appeal focuses on a non-prosecution agreement between Jeffrey Epstein and federal prosecutors. A jury in Manhattan federal court found Maxwell guilty on sex-trafficking charges in December 2021, four days after her 60th birthday that Christmas. Alison Nathan, the judge who oversaw Maxwell's trial, sentenced her to 20 years in prison and issued a $750,000 fine. AdvertisementManhattan federal prosecutors have argued they were free from any restrictions set by the deal between Florida's federal prosecutors and Epstein.
Persons: Ghislaine, Jeffrey Epstein, Maxwell, , Ghislaine Maxwell —, Epstein, Alison Nathan, Nathan, Maxwell weaponized, Epstein —, isn't, Jeffrey Epstein's, Harvey, Rudy Giuliani, John M, Leventhal, Diana Fabi Samson, Maurene Comey, missteps, Scott David, Ghislaine Maxwell, Laura Menninger, Jane, Jane Rosenberg, Joe Biden, Cuban, Virginia Giuffre, JP Morgan Chase, Carolyn Andriano Organizations: Service, disbarment, Justice Department, US Department of Justice, Reuters, US, Appeals, ricochet, Deutsche Bank, US Virgin Islands, Prosecutors Locations: Manhattan, Tallahassee , Florida, New York, Florida, United States, Washington, US Virgin
The US economy won't dodge a hard landing recession, according to Stephanie Pomboy. That could be followed by a "double-dip" profit recession as corporate earnings take a hit. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US economy can't avoid a hard-landing recession, according to one top economist. She warned in a recent interview of a coming "double-dip" profit recession for US companies, which could cause earnings to nosedive and spark big problems for the economy.
Persons: Stephanie Pomboy, , Pomboy, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, ISI, Rosenberg Research
In today's big story, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's rate-cut decision could impact the upcoming presidential election . The decision, which has massive economic implications, is now butting up against another monumental event: a US presidential election. AdvertisementThe collision course puts an incredible amount of power in Fed chair Jerome Powell's hands , Business Insider's Emily Stewart writes. The two Wall Street titans are no longer expecting a recession , with inflation cooling and the job market holding steady. Recent graduates are adjusting their career expectations amid signs that the job market is starting to weaken, according to labor experts.
Persons: , Jerome Powell's, Powell, Chip Somodevilla, Matt Rourke, Sarah Silbiger, Alyssa Powell, Emily Stewart, It's, He's, Biden, Robert Alexander, Getty, Joe Biden, David Rosenberg, it's, BEOWULF SHEEHAN, Tyler Le, Carrie Sun, Chase Coleman, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, Chelsea Jia Feng, Elon Musk, Tesla, Musk, Lily Lyman, who's, Dealogic, Anson Chan, Lil Wayne, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Trump, Wall, titans, Chelsea, Tesla, Nvidia, BI, Medical Properties Trust Locations: Powell, New York, London
Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio told WSJ that the US economy's performance has surprised them. AdvertisementChase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge-fund founder Ray Dalio appear to be hedging on their doom-and-gloom predictions for the US economy after warning for some time that a recession was imminent. In September 2022, Dalio told MarketWatch that, as stocks and bonds suffer, the US will likely slide into a recession in 2023 or 2024. Advertisement"I was bearish on the economy," Dalio told The Wall Street Journal. Dimon told the newspaper that he "would have thought some of the fiscal stimulus would have worn off by now."
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, , Dalio, Dimon, Andrew Hollenhorst, David Rosenberg, CNBC's Organizations: Service, CNBC, Wall Street, Citi's, Rosenberg Research Locations: Ukraine
An unexpected rise in the unemployment rate suggests a surprise recession could hit the US economy, according to David Rosenberg. The unemployment rate is now 0.5 percentage points above its cycle low to 3.9%, which Rosenberg says is a worrying sign. Rosenberg's concern stems from the February jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly rise to 3.9% from 3.7%. AdvertisementBut the Sahm Rule isn't triggered until the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points or more above its low over the past year, not the absolute unemployment rate. But the rise in the unemployment rate is not the only factor concerning Rosenberg.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Claudia Sahm, isn't, Sahm, subsector
He observed the fall of Google's open culture and its impact on Google's product. His controversial memo questioning Google's diversity practices noted that "Google's political bias has equated the freedom from offense with psychological safety, but shaming into silence is the antithesis of psychological safety." Rather than reaffirm Google's culture of open questioning and psychological safety by actively challenging Damore's assertions, leadership fired Damore and ended the discussion. Google leadership did further damage to the company's open culture following employee protests of military contracts and executives' alleged sexual harassment. AdvertisementThe closing of Google's open culture harmed the product.
Persons: David Kiferbaum, , Eric Schmidt, Jonathan Rosenberg, Larry Page, Sergei Brin, James Damore, Damore, Sundar, TGIF, what's Organizations: Google, Big Technology, Service, CNN
A Big Night — but Will It Matter?
  + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Adam Nagourney | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
President Biden was not even halfway through his 68-minute State of the Union speech when Simon Rosenberg, the rare Democratic strategist who is bullish on Biden’s re-election prospects, fired off a note to the readers of his Substack newsletter. “The President is Kicking Ass!” it read (though with many more exclamation points attached). The Biden campaign soon reported that the three hours surrounding the prime-time speech were the most lucrative fund-raising hours of the president’s re-election campaign so far. The rousing speech was, at least for Democrats worried about Biden’s re-election prospects, a welcome success — and on a night when it mattered. Undecided voters can be targeted precisely in many ways, with TikTok the most au courant example.
Persons: Biden, Simon Rosenberg, Biden’s Organizations: Democratic, Biden’s, Democratic National Convention Locations: Chicago
A more important factor could be whether Trump's real estate assets are already mortgaged, said law professor John Coffee. "He would have to come up with clean real estate property that is not already securing something that some other bank has a lien on," Coffee said. Michele Eve Sandberg | AFP | Getty ImagesIn New York City, the value of Trump's real estate holdings totals $690 million, according to a September 2023 estimate by Forbes. New York Attorney General Letitia James, who brought the fraud case, said she would seize Trump's real estate assets if he cannot pay his civil penalty. They instead offered to post a $100 million bond, but New York appeals court Judge Anil Singh rejected the proposal.
Persons: Donald Trump, Justin Sullivan, Trump, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Chris Kise, haven't, Eric Talley, Talley, Alina Habba, Jean Carroll’s, Carroll, Jane Rosenberg, John Coffee, Jones, Michele Eve Sandberg, Letitia James, Anil Singh, Jean Carroll's, Neil Pedersen, Pedersen, Caitlin Ochs Organizations: Fox News, Greenville Convention Center, Getty, Columbia University, Trump, Manhattan Federal, Trump Organization, Trump National Doral, AFP, Forbes, New York, New, Sons, CNBC Locations: Greenville, Greenville , South Carolina, New York, New York City, Trump National Doral Miami, Miami , Florida, York, Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S
CNNAllen Weisselberg, the former long-time confidant of Donald Trump, arrived at the Manhattan district attorney’s office early Monday morning. The exact charges he will plead guilty to are not clear. Trump has pleaded not guilty to the charges. It will be the second guilty plea by Weisselberg, who in 2022 pleaded guilty to 15 counts of tax fraud and testified in the trial of two Trump Org. The latest charges are a blow personally for Weisselberg, who is in his late 70s with medical issues.
Persons: CNN Allen Weisselberg, Donald Trump, Weisselberg, Seth Rosenberg, Trump Organizations: CNN, Trump Organization, Weisselberg, Manhattan, New, Trump, Trump Org Locations: Manhattan, New York, Rikers
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAs the artificial intelligence-powered stock market rally pushes on, proponents of the technology have posited that it could help ward off a recession that forecasters are calling for. According to David Rosenberg, economist and president of Rosenberg Research, don't get your hopes up. AI won't change the trajectory of the business cycle enough to prevent a downturn. The stock market is not the economy," Rosenberg added.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, IMB, Let's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, American, Devices, Intel
wanted him to discuss Al Qaeda’s future plans, not the attacks that had horrified America a year and a half earlier, Dr. James E. Mitchell, the psychologist, said. So when the prisoner, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, mentioned Sept. 11, they would slam him, naked, into a wall. That month, interrogators would waterboard Mr. Mohammed 183 times at a secret overseas C.I.A. prison in the mistaken belief, Dr. Mitchell said, that a nuclear attack in the United States was imminent. But Mr. Mohammed still was not saying what his captors wanted to hear.
Persons: Al Qaeda’s, James E, Mitchell, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, Mr, Mohammed, ” Dr Locations: America, United States
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, we're looking at how Google has gone from the tech industry's vanguard of cool to just another boring company . AdvertisementGoogle has long stayed atop Silicon Valley's volatile popularity contest — but the best place to work in tech is starting to feel like any other business , Business Insider's Hugh Langley and Lara O'Reilly write. Bureaucracy, an aversion to risk, and deference to Wall Street over employees — things Google long eschewed — have become the norm. The latest example is the debacle surrounding Gemini — its flashy new AI model that faced backlash for being too "woke."
Persons: , Rebecca Zisser, Hugh Langley, Lara O'Reilly, Alistair Barr, Sundar Pichai, Hugh, Lara, Mateusz Wlodarczyk, BI's Peter Kafka, it's, David Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Snowflake's Frank Slootman, Ozgur Hakan Aslan Toyota, Boxabl, Elon Musk, Tesla, Hewlett Packard, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Google, Business, Gemini, Meta, Big Tech, OpenAI, Corporations, Nvidia, SEC, Universal Music Group, Universal, BI Locations: , New York, London
Read previewAmerican consumers have staved off a recession by relentlessly spending despite soaring inflation, surging interest rates, multi-industry turmoil, and wider economic jitters. AdvertisementBurry predicted that dwindling savings and ballooning debts would choke consumer spending, eroding corporate earnings and sparking a wider recession. That's going to lead to a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the new year." That "brings us just a little closer to the consumer recession that nobody believes is going to happen," he added. "With those sources of funding largely exhausted, consumer spending will no doubt grow more slowly than after-tax incomes in future years."
Persons: , Here's, Michael Burry, Elon, Elon Musk, Spencer Platt, Carl Weinberg, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, who's, Shilling Organizations: Service, Business, Twitter, Scion Asset Management, Elon Musk, Getty, Rosenberg Research, North Locations: North American
Bankman-Fried's lawyers filed a sentencing submission, asking for a prison sentence of no longer than 78 months — or six-and-a-half-years. The US Probation Office, which issues sentencing reports that judges typically rely on, recommended 100 years behind bars — which Bankman-Fried's lawyers called "barbaric." Advertisement"That recommendation is grotesque," Bankman-Fried's lawyers wrote. Sam Bankman-Fried's approach to veganism illustrated both his selflessness and awkwardness, his younger brother, Gabriel Bankman-Fried, wrote in a letter to the judge. In the sentencing submission, Bankman-Fried's lawyers argue that "the most reasonable estimate" for how much his victims lost was "zero."
Persons: , Sam Bankman, Barbara Fried, Joseph Bankman, Gabriel Bankman, neurodiversity, Sam, Bankman, Lewis Kaplan, Fried, Jane Rosenberg, FTX, Michael M Santiago, Carmine Simpson, Simpson, That's, Gabriel, Seth Wenig, Marc Mukasey, Torrey Young, weren't, Barbara Fried —, John J, Ray III, John Ray Organizations: Service, Business, US, Prosecutors, Alameda Research, Office, Stanford Law, MIT, Wall, of Prisons, San, United, AP Locations: Manhattan, FTX, Brooklyn, Bahamas
Top economist David Rosenberg says that's not necessarily true. In a recent research note, he listed five indicators that challenge the narrative that the economy is booming. But top economist David Rosenberg says not so fast. The Rosenberg Research president says that while many people are touting strong GDP, job-market, and consumer-spending data, red flags remain. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: David Rosenberg, that's, Rosenberg, , There's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business
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