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Gold rangebound as traders await economic data
  + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold edged up on Thursday, helped by a softer dollar in holiday-thinned trading, but prices moved in a tight range as market participants awaited economic data for further direction. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,818.40 per ounce as of 0225 GMT. The Federal Reserve lowered its pace of rate hikes gradually to 50 bps in December after four straight 75 bps rate hikes. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that the U.S. central bank will deliver more rate hikes next year.
Morning Bid: Questions after the storm
  + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. A day after the Bank of Japan's bombshell and things are looking a little steadier. Most Asian share markets and U.S. stock futures are up, and the Nikkei down only modestly. Analysts assume a formal shift will come after Japan's Spring wage talks and BOJ chief Kuroda's retirement in April. Analysts also suspect the BOJ shift meant the days of Japan desiring, or just accepting, a lower yen were over and the fallout in carry trades has been vicious.
Turnover surges as funds rush to exit private equity stakes
  + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Conceived as an illiquid but lucrative method of accessing unlisted companies, private investments are typically structured into funds run by buyout firms. Investment firm Hamilton Lane says an unprecedented $224 billion in private equity stakes have been offered in the secondary market this year to mid-November. Others want to deploy their capital elsewhere - a sign that private equity funds are no longer so highly regarded. The need to sell to rebalance can occur when, as this year, private equity funds have outperformed public markets. On paper, plenty of private investments, which are typically valued quarterly, appear to have done very well this year.
Morning Bid: Yen for change
  + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
But even though the BoJ is unlikely to change that stance at this week's policy meeting, some change appears to be afoot next year as central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda ends his second five-year term in April. In numbers due for release on Thursday, Japan's core consumer price inflation rate is expected to have ticked up to 3.7% last month. That said, futures markets still aren't buying Fed policymaker indications that official rates will go above 5% and stay there all next year. After closing at their worst levels in over a month on Friday, U.S. stocks are set for a steadier open today. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Joe Biden beat Donald Trump once, and Democrats are crafting a strategy to try to beat him again in 2024 — even if his name isn’t on the ballot. But Democrats interviewed about the emerging 2024 strategy said they plan to make sure this particular comment isn’t soon forgotten. (Trump issued another statement on his Truth Social platform insisting he hadn’t said he wanted to “terminate” the Constitution.) A Trump ally, former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich, said he doesn’t believe Trump will suffer a backlash over his comment about the Constitution. Trump’s comment “is very serious,” said longtime Biden confidant Ted Kaufman, a former U.S. senator from Delaware.
The November labor market report released Friday showed job growth was better than expected, as nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000. He also pointed to slowing inflation as a positive sign for healthier economic growth. The improving labor market, combined with a 0.6% increase in average hourly earnings last month, has put pressure on the Fed to continue raising rates. Major U.S. stock indexes have struggled this week, in part due to concerns of a slowing economy and expectations of more rate increases ahead. "That's going be where we get our innovation and our productive capacity, beyond the next month or two."
Kroger on Thursday raised its forecast for the year after stronger third-quarter sales topped Wall Street expectations and inflation continued to push up the prices shoppers pay for milk, eggs and other groceries. Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen said the company is attracting shoppers by offering value. At Kroger, identical sales rose 6.9%, excluding fuel, in the third quarter. For the full year, Kroger now anticipates adjusted net earnings to range from $4.05 to $4.15. Kroger announced in October that it plans buy its competitor, Albertsons , in a deal valued at $24.6 billion.
After the end of a multi-decade bull market, Rieder says investors have a lot of new opportunities. Rieder told Insider what he's buying, and says investors can get strong returns with little risk. Suffice to say, Rieder's happy to see the beginning of a new fixed income environment. "I think the ability to create income in fixed income is maybe the strongest that I've seen in my career." Right now, he describes the fixed income market today as a much more appealing and less high-pressure place to be than it once was.
The average rate for a 30-year mortgage just saw its biggest weekly drop in more than 40 years. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage just saw its biggest weekly drop in more than 40 years, according to Freddie Mac. A better-than-expected inflation report last week led to the biggest single-day mortgage-rate drop on record, according to Redfin. If interest-rate volatility declines, mortgage rates could keep falling as well, narrowing the distance from the 10-year Treasury yield. If that spread reverts to the historical average, that would put the 30-year mortgage rate at about 4.5%.
Groceries account for 56% of Walmart's annual revenue, compared with just about 20% at Target, according to company filings. More customers turn to Walmart to fill out the bulk of their grocery lists, said Neil Saunders, managing director of retail advisory firm GlobalData. A man pushes his shopping cart past bread for sale at a Walmart SuperCenter store in Rosemead, California. Brown | AFP | Getty ImagesLow prices vs. Fun findsWalmart is known for its mantra of "everyday low prices" and its focus on value has become synonymous with its name. About 21% of sales at Target come from unplanned purchases, according to GlobalData research from before the pandemic.
"The softer inflation data took some wind out of the dollar's sails," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. "The dollar is steadier because we're having this residual, geopolitical skittishness as well as signs of a fairly sturdy U.S. economic backbone in the forms of U.S. retail sales." Retail sales rose 1.3% in October, more than the 1.0% increase that economists polled by Reuters had forecast. The dollar briefly pared losses on release of the retail sales data, but later fell against the euro to trade little changed against major currencies. Yields fell further on the market's benign inflation outlook.
Fed's George calls for 'more measured' pace of rate hikes
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Nov 10 (Reuters) - Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George on Thursday reiterated her support for a slower pace of U.S. interest rate increases, calling for a "more measured" approach that allows the central bank time to judge how the rises in borrowing costs are affecting the economy. "I continue to see several advantages for a steady and deliberate approach to raising the policy rate," George said in remarks prepared for delivery to an energy conference co-hosted by her regional bank and the Dallas Fed. The goal has been to slow the economy and bring down inflation that's running far higher than the Fed's 2% goal. George dissented in June when the Fed pushed through the first of its extra-large rate hikes, and though she has not done so since, she has repeatedly called for a slower, steadier pace of increases than what the central bank has delivered. "A more measured approached to rate increases may be particularly useful as policymakers judge the economy's response to higher rates," she said.
LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - CEO Ulrich Körner is raising $4 bln of fresh equity and shrinking the Zurich-based group’s trading business to put it on a steadier footing. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the merits of the plan and what’s at stake if it fails. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterEditing by Amanda Gomez and Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Yet the effects from this point of a return to the "old normal" of higher bond yields and positive real (inflation-adjusted) yields, aren't clearly linear nor entirely negative. The 10-year Treasury yield on those dates: 4.24% now, 3.69% Sept. 22 and 3.07% on June 30. Yet as stock valuations fall and bond yields rise, risk to a long-term buyer is declining and expected future returns climbs. It's common to hear market handicappers discuss higher yields compressing overall equity valuations as if it's a law of physics. Maybe the difference in these regimes has something to do with the absolute level of bond yields and whether deflation or inflation was the main adversary?
WASHINGTON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. government on Friday reported that its fiscal 2022 budget deficit plunged by half from a year earlier to $1.375 trillion, due to fading COVID-19 relief spending and record revenues fueled by a hot economy, but student loan forgiveness costs limited the reduction. "You know, we've gone from an historically strong economic recovery to a steady and stable growth, while reducing the deficit," Biden said. Outlays for fiscal 2022, which ended Sept. 30, fell by a record $550 billion, or 8% from last year to $6.272 trillion. The move brought the September budget deficit to $430 billion, more than six times the prior-year September deficit of $65 billion. It also includes the extension of a COVID-19 moratorium on all student loan payments until the end of 2022, which added about $21 billion in budgetary costs.
Outlays for fiscal 2022, which ended Sept. 30, fell by a record $550 billion, or 8% from last year to $6.272 trillion. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe move brought the September budget deficit to $430 billion, more than six times the prior-year September deficit of $65 billion. It also includes the extension of a COVID moratorium on all student loan payments until the end of 2022, which added about $21 billion in budgetary costs. Rising interest costs also will start to consume a bigger share of the federal budget, the non-partisan fiscal referee agency predicts. The CBO had forecast a fiscal 2023 deficit of about $984 billion, with deficits rising steadily thereafter to nearly $2 trillion by 2030.
People walk through the City of London financial district during rush hour in London, Britain, October 3, 2022. Asia's main markets had struggled overnight but Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) made a 0.5% early gain as both the pound and UK government bonds rallied in London. Invesco's director of macro research Ben Jones said the UK's volatility would remain a key focus for global markets. In currency markets, the dollar remains king as investors price in U.S. rates peaking around 5%. The rise of the dollar and global bond yields have been a drag for gold, which was stuck at $1,648 an ounce .
Asia shares ease, major test looms for UK bonds
  + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Concerns about financial stability added to the corrosive mix with all eyes on UK bonds, now that the Bank of England's (BoE's) emergency buying spree is over. "Monday's market action will provide a test, not only for the survival of Truss' low-tax vision, but also her political future." Sterling was quoted up 0.4% at $1.1219 , but off the early high with trading sparse in Asia. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 1.2% and back toward last week's 2-1/2 year low. In currency markets, the dollar remains king as investors price in U.S. rates peaking around 5%.
Asia shares slip, testing times for UK bonds
  + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Concerns about financial stability added to the corrosive mix with all eyes on UK bonds now that the Bank of England's (BoE's) emergency buying spree is over. "Monday's market action will provide a test, not only for the survival of Truss' low-tax vision, but also her political future." Sterling was quoted up 0.6% at $1.1233 , but trading was sparse with little liquidity in Asia. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 1.2% and back toward last week's 2-1/2 year low. read moreIn currency markets, the dollar remains king as investors price in U.S. rates peaking around 5%.
Asia shares slip, make or break day for UK bonds
  + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Concerns about financial stability added to the corrosive mix with all eyes on UK bonds now that the Bank of England's (BoE's) emergency buying spree is over. "Monday's market action will provide a test, not only for the survival of Truss' low-tax vision, but also her political future." Sterling was quoted up 0.6% at $1.1240 , but trading was sparse with little liquidity in Asia. In equity markets, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.5% and back toward last week's 2-1/2 year low. read moreIn currency markets, the dollar remains king as investors price in U.S. rates peaking around 5%.
Oct 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should more slowly and steadily raise interest rates to allow time for its policy actions to seep through the economy and minimize market volatility, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said on Friday. "I have been in the camp of steadier and slower to begin to see how those effects from the lag will unfold," George said during an event organized by S&P Global Ratings. So far there are few major signs the current level of interest rates is doing enough to quash an inflation rate running more than three times the Fed's 2% goal. A hotter-than-expected key inflation reading on Thursday caused already fearful investors to price in more interest rate hikes than the Fed has itself projected, amid mounting concern only a recession will bring supply and demand into better balance. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
London CNN Business —UK Prime Minister Liz Truss has fired finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng and ditched a big part of her discredited economic strategy in a desperate bid to rescue her month-old premiership. “It was right, in the face of the issues we had, that I acted decisively to ensure that we had economic stability,” Truss said Friday. Kwarteng presented a “mini budget” just three weeks ago, promising tax cuts worth £45 billion ($50 billion) and increased borrowing with the hope of boosting UK economic growth. “Liz Truss’ reckless approach has crashed the economy, causing mortgages to skyrocket, and has undermined Britain’s standing on the world stage,” he said. Kwarteng had flown back from the IMF meeting in Washington, D.C., overnight for discussions with Truss.
Like a lot of millennials, Enrique Gonsalves is a victim of poor timing. For most millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, the path to homeownership has been fraught with pitfalls and false starts. Add it all up, and the homeownership rate among millennials is lagging that of previous generations. Compared with these generations, millennials have more debt, a lower net worth, and a worse chance of making more than their parents. Those factors, particularly the rise in student debt, have prevented millennials from getting a home.
This is a problem not only for Powell and the Fed but for the economy. To move the economy toward the outcome it wants, the Fed plays on this future-focused nature by steering financial conditions. Powell and other members of the FOMC have made statements that are mutually exclusive or wildly different from previous communications. At the June meeting, Powell responded to a question about which type of inflation the Fed was targeting with a definitive "inflation means headline inflation." Two-year note yields, which roughly proxy the market's pricing of the fed funds policy rate 12 months ahead, have risen steadily.
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