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☆ The mortgage market isn't sending the signal homebuyers need on affordability
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Usually around 1.75 percentage points, and as low as 1.3 in 2021, the so-called mortgage spread is hovering at more than 3 percentage points now. And that is propping up mortgage rates, keeping home owners from selling their homes and buying nicer ones, and hurting first-time buyers, Yun said. Why mortgage spreads should move lowerLogically, mortgage spreads should move down sharply from here, thanks to the recent spate of good economic news, and bring relief to home buyers who have seen affordability deteriorate sharply since 2020. But as the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022, mortgage rates rose even faster than bond yields. Mortgage rates also dropped, to 6.89% last Friday from a recent peak of 7.22%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Persons: Lawrence Yun, Yun, Logan Mohtashami, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Rob Haworth, Banks, refinance, Haworth, Neel Kashkari Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Mortgage News, HousingWire, Treasury, U.S . Bank, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Stockton , California, treasuries, Silicon, U.S, Irvine , Calif, Seattle

☆ Wall Street’s Recession Warning Is Flashing. Some Wonder if it’s Wrong.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Joe Rennison | More About Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Some investors believe that a recession warning that has been flashing on Wall Street for the past several months is wrong and that the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation and still escape a deep downturn. The signal — called the yield curve — began suggesting last year that the economy was headed for a slump. Typically, investors expect to be paid more interest for lending for longer periods of time, creating an upward sloping curve. The inversion suggests that investors expect interest rates over time will fall from their current high level. And that usually only happens when the economy needs propping up and the Fed decides to help by lowering interest rates.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Temasek is betting on all its stars aligning
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That’s one consolation Temasek can take from a tricky year. But Temasek’s hopes for a more prosperous year or two ahead rely on matters mostly out of its hands. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsGranted, Temasek had a busy few years propping up the tiny city-state’s companies, like Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI), after the pandemic hit. Meanwhile, high valuations in the United States, where Temasek has doubled exposure over the past decade, will limit opportunities. But if Temasek wants to start shining more brightly soon, it’ll need all its stars to align.

Persons: That’s, Temasek’s, Chin Yee, There’s, Antony Currie, Pranav Kiran, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Temasek, Sequoia, Reuters Graphics, Singapore Airlines, Reuters Graphics Finance, SP Group, U.S, Chartered, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Singapore’s, Asia, Japan, China, People’s Republic, Southeast Asia, India, Singapore, United States

☆ Stocks rise, dollar retreats ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets are awaiting U.S. inflation data on Wednesday to see if price pressures are continuing to moderate, which could provide clues on the interest rate outlook. The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.3%, lifted by gains in European shares, as the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.6% and U.S. stock index futures , rose 0.2-0.4%, suggesting a modest rise at the opening bell. Economists polled by Reuters expect the consumer price index to have risen by 3.1% in June, after May's 4% increase. "There is a massive eye on tomorrow's inflation data - it comes to late in the day for the July meeting. Analysts expect earnings to have shrunk 6.4% in the second quarter year-on-year, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Persons: Toby Melville, Craig Erlam, Jim Reid, Wells, Julie Zhu, Jamie Freed, David Evans, Chizu Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, U.S ., Treasury, Deutsche Bank, London Metal Exchange, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Refinitiv, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, China, U.S, Brent, Wall, Hong Kong

☆ Chinese real estate stocks rise as Beijing extends property support measures
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A crane with the China Vanke logo at a residential construction site in China, on Sept. 28, 2021. Hong Kong-listed real estate stocks saw large gains. However, the CSI 300 Real Estate Index fell 0.44%, paring gains from earlier. Chinese real estate stocks mostly rose after the country announced it will extend two financial policies to support the real estate market until the end of 2024. Xinhua reported that the move is to "guide financial institutions to continue deferring loan payments for real estate enterprises, while propping up financial support for the real estate enterprises to ensure the delivery of housing projects."

Persons: ICBC Organizations: Logan Group, Country Garden Holdings, China Vanke, CSI, China Construction Bank, Bank of, People's Bank of China, Xinhua Locations: China, Hong Kong, Bank of China

Seoul, South Korea CNN —South Korea is getting older – and its care facilities are changing to match. Elderly facilities include senior care homes, specialized hospitals, and welfare agencies that help the elderly navigate social services or protections. The shift illustrates a years-long problem South Korea has thus far failed to reverse. Young students pictured in Seoul, South Korea, on November 23, 2021. The rapid rise in elderly facilities in recent years may help alleviate some of these problems.

Persons: ’, Young, Anthony Wallace, Yoon Suk Yeol, Yonhap, Ed Jones, hobbling, – Organizations: South Korea CNN, Getty, South, OECD, Economic Co Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Korea, AFP, Daejeon, Japan, “

☆ Americans are growing optimistic about inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —With inflation continuing to slow, US consumers are taking notice — and they’re feeling more optimistic. That was due to inflation’s steady retreat in recent months and consumers feeling more cheery about the economy’s future. Consumers’ economic outlook for the year ahead jumped 28% over last month. More action from the Fed is centered on core inflation remaining stubbornly high and not decelerating as fast as the headline number. The optimism reflected in the survey means US consumers have faith that inflation will eventually slow to a sustainable level, which the Fed defines as 2% inflation.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, Brian Moynihan, Joe Biden’s, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, Consumers, Commerce Department, Federal, Bank of America, CNN, European Central Bank, Market Committee, Fed Locations: Washington, April’s, ”

☆ Morning Bid: Canadian cloud, rates markets checked
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWildfire smoke wasn't the only cloud from Canada that drifted over the United States this week. It was enough to nudge borrowing rates back up slightly across the maturity spectrum and served a shot across the bow to otherwise buoyant stock markets and subdued risk gauges. Futures markets still see the Fed skipping a rate rise next week, delivering one final quarter-point hike in July and reversing that move by year end. Two-year Treasury yields firmed about 10 basis points to 3.80% - and sovereign debt yields around the world edged higher in sympathy. With Fed policymakers in a blackout period before next week's meeting, and new data points thin this week, market edginess was dominated by shifting sentiment more than anything.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Jane Merriman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Weekly U.S, Fed, Stock, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Canada, United States, Brussels

FollowNEW YORK, May 18 (Reuters) - Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX is seeking to claw back more than $240 million it paid for stock trading platform Embed, saying former FTX insiders did no investigation before buying the essentially worthless bug-ridden software platform. FTX filed three lawsuits late Wednesday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware targeting former FTX insiders including indicted founder Sam Bankman-Fried, Embed executives including founder Michael Giles, and Embed shareholders. FTX alleged that Bankman-Fried and other FTX insiders misappropriated company funds to acquire stakes in Embed as part of the transaction. As part of the purchase, FTX also paid Embed employees $70 million in retention bonuses. FTX is seeking to recover $236.8 million from Giles and Embed insiders, and $6.9 million from Embed minority shareholders.

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (TTWO.O) on Wednesday rounded off a strong March quarter for the sector that saw its three major players post net bookings growth of between 11% and 66%. The company said "NBA 2K23", "Grand Theft Auto V" and "Grand Theft Auto Online" were some of the top contributors to its net bookings growth in the reported quarter. The company forecast net bookings of more than $8 billion for next year, which was above analysts' estimates. "It (the GTA VI release) would be a watershed moment for the category of open-world games," said MoffettNathanson analyst Clay Griffin. "Tens and tens of millions of units would be sold immediately, and a new or completely refreshed GTA: Online would redefine what a modern 'metaverse' really looks like."

☆ Turkey's Erdogan faces toughest test yet in landmark election — with high stakes for the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

He came to prominence as mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s, and was celebrated in the first decade of the new millennium for transforming Turkey's economy into an emerging market powerhouse. But recent years have been far less rosy for the religiously conservative leader, whose own economic policies have triggered a cost-of-living crisis. Now, given a recent downturn in support for Erdogan, some fear he may play dirty to ensure his hold on power. The stakes are high for the entire country and, more broadly, global geopolitics – and the mood on the ground is tense. Mustafa Kamaci | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images"I'm very concerned that [Erdogan] may deploy underhanded tactics, cheating and even violence," Ibish said.

☆ The 'brain' behind Ron DeSantis' likely presidential campaign was involved in a major 'ghost candidate' scandal in Florida: 'If it's not illegal, it should be'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Katherine Long | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The Florida pollster Ryan Tyson is expected to be a top advisor in Ron DeSantis' presidential bid. Ron DeSantis' presumptive presidential bid, was deeply enmeshed in a major Florida political-corruption scandal that has resulted in criminal charges for five people, two of whom have been convicted. At the center of the scandal are "ghost candidates" — those drafted to run purely to siphon votes from an opposing party in close races. It's not illegal to run ghost candidates, Miami-Dade State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle, a Democrat, said at a news conference in 2021 after two people were arrested on campaign-finance charges in connection with the scheme. Tyson is "Ron DeSantis' brain," Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics, said.

☆ Arab League Votes to Readmit Syria, Ending a Nearly 12-Year Suspension
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Vivian Yee | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Arab nations agreed on Sunday to allow Syria to rejoin the Arab League, taking a crucial step toward ending the country’s international ostracism more than a decade after it was suspended from the group over its use of ruthless force against its own people. Now, the region is normalizing relations, increasingly convinced that Arab countries are gaining little from isolating Syria, as the United States has urged them to. Refusing to deal with Syria means ignoring the reality that its government has all but won the war, proponents of engagement argue. That leaves Syria poised for a triumphant return this month in Saudi Arabia at the Arab League’s next summit — perhaps represented by President Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian leader accused of committing war crimes against his own people over the past decade. Syria’s rehabilitation could unlock billions of dollars in reconstruction projects and other investments for its tottering economy, further propping up Mr. al-Assad.

☆ Consumers are ‘retrenching.’ What that means for recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But for consumers, the lengthy spell in the crossfire of persistently high prices and rising interest rates has taken its toll. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat in March, marking the fourth time in five months that expenditures held steady or declined. “Further deterioration in the job market — the last remaining leg propping up the consumer — is bound to accelerate the downshift in consumer spending in the coming months. Private label growth is one of six indicators that Allison tracks to determine a consumer recession. “If you ask the economists, ‘Are we in a recession?’ they’re going to say ‘No, we’re not in a recession,’” he said.

☆ Australian Rules-Tasmania savours victory in 'hard fight' to secure AFL team
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Ian Ransom | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The state government signed off on commitments to secure the AFL's 19th team license and has targeted the 2028 season to launch in the Australian Rules top flight. "This has been a hard fight ... by many, many Tasmanians over a number of generations," state Premier Jeremy Rockliff said in the state capital Hobart. The AFL targeted richer eastern states and continues to spend a fortune propping up expansion teams in territory long owned by rugby league. AFL clubs relying on league distributions balked at the prospect of another drain on the league's coffers. ($1 = 1.5006 Australian dollars)Reporting by Ian Ransom in Melbourne; Editing by Peter RutherfordOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

New York CNN —The collapse of First Republic Bank is unlikely to worsen the US economic outlook, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday. Dimon told CNN’s Poppy Harlow early last month that the stress in the banking system had increased the odds of a US recession. The bank had $100 billion in those deposits withdrawn from the bank during the first quarter, it reported last week. “The American banking system is extraordinarily sound,” he said. But he agreed with Dimon that the seizure of First Republic, however, does not shift those forecasts, he told CNN Monday.

I love writing about personal finance, but personal responsibility isn't the be-all and end-all. How disability shapes my family's finances »Demographic disparities persist through educationLike all areas of education, financial education suffers from disparities in school funding, which exacerbate racial inequality. As one instructor told the USBE auditors, "Financial literacy is critical to the financial wellbeing of our country. Financial education is under-resourced and undersupportedThe problems with financial education aren't surprising, given the lack of attention the subject receives from decision-makers. I'm glad I ignored mainstream financial advice »Financial literacy needs to include our history of inequalityPersonal finance media, gurus, and educators love to tout financial literacy as the missing puzzle piece to the American dream.

chartEither way, extremely low U.S. volatility generally bodes well for other stock markets. And worrying UK inflation figures may extend a dark shadow over Asia. Figures on Wednesday showed that Britain was the only country in western Europe with double-digit inflation in March, prompting several banks to raise their UK rate outlook. UK money markets are pricing in a further 75 basis points of tightening this year, taking the base rate up to 5%. Meanwhile, Australia's central bank governor Philip Lowe addresses the media on Thursday and India's central bank releases the minutes of its last policy meeting.

☆ BOJ executive warns of 'extremely high' uncertainty over Japan's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary BOJ must keep easy policy to support economy - ShimizuFinancial stress warrants close monitoring - ShimizuOverseas risks key to BOJ's growth, inflation forecastsWASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Assistant Governor Tokiko Shimizu said on Friday there had been "extremely high" uncertainty regarding Japan's economy, as slowing global growth and recent financial market stress cloud its outlook. "More recently, financial market stress is drawing attention," she said. "Taking these risks into account, it's necessary to pay due attention to developments in the financial sector" and the impact on Japan's economy and prices. Japan's economy has made a delayed recovery from the scars of the COVID-19 crisis, with an end to pandemic-induced curbs propping up consumption. But global recession fears cloud the outlook for the export-reliant economy, a risk that may keep the BOJ from phasing out its massive stimulus.

☆ Florida Governor Desantis signs 6-week abortion ban law
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We are proud to support life and family in the state of Florida," DeSantis said in a statement. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Wednesday found that about 50% of Americans strongly or somewhat oppose a national six-week abortion ban, including 44% of Republicans. The fate of the ban will depend on the outcome of a court challenge to the state's 15-week abortion ban, which abortion providers have argued violates the state constitutional right to privacy. If the Florida Supreme Court rules that the 15-week ban is constitutional, the six-week ban would take effect 30 days later. Patients from across the U.S. Southeast have been traveling to Florida to end their pregnancies since the U.S. Supreme Court gutted federal abortion rights.

☆ JPMorgan Chase is set to report first-quarter earnings – here’s what the Street expects
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings before the opening bell Friday. Here's what Wall Street expects:Earnings: $3.41 per share, 29.7% higher than a year earlier, according to Refinitiv. For instance, JPMorgan likely benefited from an influx of deposits after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank experienced fatal bank runs. That's because smaller banks faced pressure last month as customers sought the perceived safety of megabanks including JPMorgan and Bank of America . JPMorgan is expected to post a $2.27 billion provision for credit losses, according to the StreetAccount estimate.

☆ Florida lawmakers approve 6-week abortion ban, sending bill to DeSantis for signature
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Gabriella Borter | Thomson Reuters | Gabriella Borter Is A Reporter On The U.S. National Affairs Team | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 13 (Reuters) - Florida's Republican-led House of Representatives on Thursday gave final approval to a six-week abortion ban, setting the stage for abortion access to be drastically curtailed in the state and across the U.S. South. Lawmakers in the Florida House approved the ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy in a 70-40 vote. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Wednesday found that about 50% of Americans strongly or somewhat oppose a national six-week abortion ban, including 44% of Republicans. The fate of the ban will depend on the outcome of a court challenge to the state's 15-week abortion ban, which abortion providers have argued violates the state constitutional right to privacy. If the Florida Supreme Court rules that the 15-week ban is constitutional, the six-week ban would take effect 30 days later.

But Ueda said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) must also avoid being too late in normalising monetary policy, a sign he will be more open to the idea of tweaking its controversial bond yield control policy than his dovish predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda. "If the BOJ suddenly realises that inflation will stably and sustainably hit 2% and decides to normalise monetary policy, it will have to make very big policy adjustments," Ueda said in an inaugural news conference on Monday. The dollar extended its gains against the yen to hit 133.055 , the highest since April 4, on receding expectations of a near-term tweak to Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. PRICE TRENDS HOLD KEYIf the BOJ sees that it can achieve its price target, it might need to normalise monetary policy, Ueda said. But the BOJ must sustain Kuroda's stimulus programme for the time being, including YCC, remarks that diminish the chance of a policy shift at this month's policy meeting.

[1/3] New Governor of Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda waits for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida before their meeting at prime minister?s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, April 10, 2023. "Given high economic uncertainty, the BOJ will communicate closely with the government and guide monetary policy flexibly," Ueda told reporters after meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to receive his official appointment letter. In parliamentary confirmation hearings in February, Ueda has stressed the need to keep ultra-easy policy to ensure Japan sustainably achieves the BOJ's 2% inflation target backed by wage growth. Ueda will chair his first policy meeting on April 27-28, when the board produces fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts extending through fiscal 2025. Ueda served as BOJ board member from 1998 to 2005, during which the central bank introduced zero interest rates and then quantitative easing to combat deflation and economic stagnation.

☆ Japan's new central bank chief assumes office as global risks loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] The Japanese government's nominee for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks during a hearing session at the lower house of the parliament in Tokyo, Japan, February 24, 2023. The 71-year-old academic's term began on Sunday, succeeding Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ended on Saturday. Ueda and his two deputy governors, Shinichi Uchida and Ryozo Himino, will hold a joint news conference at 1015 GMT on Monday. Japan's long-stagnant inflation and wage growth are showing budding signs of change. Ueda served as BOJ board member from 1998 to 2005, during which the central bank introduced zero interest rates and then quantitative easing to combat deflation and economic stagnation.

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