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☆ U.S. unemployment rate falls in December, but rises for Black women, Hispanic men
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spencer Platt | Getty ImagesThe U.S. unemployment rate declined overall in December, but rose for Black women and Hispanic men, according to the latest nonfarm payrolls report. Black women saw unemployment increased to 5.5% last month, up 0.3 percentage points from 5.2% in November, data from the Labor Department showed Friday. Overall, Black employment held steady at 5.7%, while the unemployment rate for Black men actually declined to 5.1% from 5.4% last month. The overall unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0%. And it's really disaffecting Black women and Latinx men," Holder added.

The longer that job market strength persists, the more Fed officials may feel compelled to break it with ever-higher interest rates. "I don't think we can understate the importance of labor market outcomes," Duy wrote. Reuters Graphics'SURGE PRICING'The job market has befuddled central bankers during the COVID-19 pandemic as much as inflation. Early expectations that a flood of workers back into the labor market would ease wage and hiring conditions proved optimistic. Officials then expected inflation to rise for any number of reasons, from the Fed's own massive bond purchases to a steadily falling unemployment rate.

☆ India's utility vehicles sales rise in Dec, demand for entry-level cars muted
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Nandan Mandayam | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Jan 2 (Reuters) - India's top automakers in December reported a double-digit rise in the sale of the more expensive utility vehicles, while entry-level cars saw muted demand despite discounts. Auto sales numbers are keenly watched as they are among the key indicators for assessing private consumption, which has more than 50% weightage in calculating the country's economic growth. Utility vehicles (UV), among the fastest-growing segments, saw a 22.3% rise in sales at Maruti Suzuki India (MRTI.NS) and 62.2% at Mahindra and Mahindra (MAHM.NS). Hero MotoCorp (HROM.NS), the world's largest bikemaker, reported a marginal fall in sales, while Bajaj Auto's (BAJA.NS) two-wheeler sales dropped 22%. The commercial vehicles (CV) segment reported a double-digit growth for December, with sales at industry leaders Eicher Motors (EICH.NS) and Ashok Leyland (ASOK.NS) rising 17.3% and 44.9%, respectively.

☆ Jim Cramer: My worldview for the first half of 2023 and the stocks that will win
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +27 min

Our stock market comes out of 2022 better than any other. The profitless companies today — like the dot-com stocks in 2000 — almost all disappointed and will continue to disappoint in 2023. I had thought these people would come back to work when they realized that savings from the stock market and Social Security aren't enough of a safety net. Money will be exiting the stock market all year into the safer and somewhat greener pastures. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Unemployment among Saudi citizens increases to 9.9% in Q3/22
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

DUBAI, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Unemployment in Saudi Arabia among citizens increased to 9.9% in the third quarter, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter but the overall unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8 percent, data released on Thursday showed. Unemployment in this category fell to 20.5% in Q3 from 21.9% in the year-ago period, making up 37% of the Saudi labour force. Expansion of the private sector is a key pillar of the government strategy, with a wide-ranging programme of privatisations and other government-supported initiatives to spur growth. The latest data showed that 93.3% of unemployed Saudis would accept jobs in the private sector. Historically, the public sector has been the principal employer of citizens in Saudi Arabia.

☆ 2022 didn’t go as expected for bank investors. How to avoid pitfalls in the sector in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Banks finally got a long-awaited boost to interest rates this year after a decade of toiling in a low-rate environment. A year ago, big lenders including Bank of America and Wells Fargo were the top picks of the analyst community because they were expected to benefit from higher rates . Loan growth coupled with vast deposit bases would drive gains in interest income as the Federal Reserve hiked rates, the thinking went. In a downturn, banks are exposed to surging loan defaults, reduced loan demand and write-downs on assets. Veteran analyst Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo said that bank stocks could pop 50% in 2023 by proving their resilience in a recession.

☆ Inflation cooling is good economic news. It might not feel like it
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks, which had risen on the “inflation is cooling” news Tuesday, were down Wednesday on the “Fed is not convinced” development. GOP leader Kevin McCarthy is trying to find the votes to become speaker, and adding a spending fight to his plate would get messy quickly. But the spending fight loomsNone of the disagreements over spending are going away. Inflation moved the electionThe difference between 7.1% month-over-month inflation and 7.7% inflation in October may not feel like much on the micro level to Americans who are paying 49% more for eggs this year than they were last year. “In the coming decade, they’re going to be fighting hard to get inflation down.”In the meantime, cooling inflation might be praised by policymakers, but it could rub everyone else the wrong way, especially if an economic slowdown starts to feel like a recession.

☆ 'The worst is yet to come': the curse of high inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While wealthier consumers can rely on savings built up during pandemic lockdowns, others struggle to make ends meet and a growing number rely on food banks. Workers have taken strike action in sectors from healthcare to aviation to demand that wages keep pace with inflation. But if things are tough in industrialised economies, rocketing food prices are worsening poverty and suffering in poorer countries, from Haiti to Sudan and Lebanon to Sri Lanka. The world's central banks have embarked on steep interest rate hikes to cool demand and tame inflation. From U.S. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell to the European Central Bank's Christine Lagarde, there is growing talk that rate-hike medicine may taste bitter.

☆ Inflation in 2023: experts predict ‘worst is yet to come’ as recession looms
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ A house price slump is coming. Rising unemployment could make it much worse
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Brendon O'Hagan/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesNew Zealand is at the sharp end of a global housing market squeeze that has grim ramifications for the world economy. “In an ideal world, you’ll get a bit of froth blown off the top [of house prices] and everything is fine. “A decisive increase in unemployment is a very big danger for housing markets,” said Slater of Oxford Economics. Qilai Shen/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesA drag on the economyMost market watchers are not expecting a repeat of the 2008 housing market crash. But even a modest a fall in house prices will knock confidence, causing homeowners to cut back on spending.

LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - If financial markets bore the brunt of this year's interest rate shock, housing now stands in the firing line. With long-term U.S. fixed mortgage rates above 7% for the first time in 20 years, and more than double January rates, U.S. housing sales and starts are already feeling the heat. "We see a relatively greater risk of a meaningful rise in mortgage delinquency rates in the UK," Goldman said this month. While Australia and New Zealand have higher variable mortgage rates, British mortgage holders also have a higher vulnerability to rising joblessness. All of which bodes ill for UK house prices - although forecasts are still far from apocalyptic.

☆ Mass tech layoffs might look scary, but here's why your job is probably safe — even if a recession strikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Tech experts told Insider that's unlikely to happen, given how tight the labor market remains. But a recession will cause unemployment to rise, and it might take longer to find a new job. Industry experts told Insider that most employers simply can't afford to lay off large swathes of workers if they want to make it out the other side. Daniel Zhao, the chief economist at Glassdoor, told Insider that the recent tech layoffs alone weren't enough to move the unemployment figure yet, but were still a signal of sorts. Nick South, a managing director at Boston Consulting Group, told Insider this means employers are still struggling to find enough high-caliber talent.

☆ Why most Americans' jobs aren't at risk of the kind of mass layoffs we saw in the last 2 downturns, despite big cuts at places like Twitter and Meta
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in October, but it remains near the lowest level in the past 50 years. While the most recent layoffs, for instance, have yet to be reflected in most up-to-date economic data, the US economy is far from shedding jobs. That's because the unemployment rate is expected to tick up during the recession that could be on the horizon. The Fed is projecting the unemployment rate to climb in 2023 from 3.7% to 4.4%, which would lead to roughly 1.5 million Americans losing their jobs. Bank of America is projecting the unemployment rate to reach 5.5% by the end of next year.

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WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The headline number in the U.S. October jobs report released on Friday showed firms adding a more-than-expected 261,000 jobs and hourly wages continuing to rise, evidence of a still-tight labor market. Those labor force flows are significant in their own right. Reuters GraphicsAt the same time, the number of unemployed people who found a job fell to about 300,000 below its yearly average. The net change, in other words, was driven this time by job loss and a shortfall in job finding. On average over the past year the number of unemployed has fallen by about 117,000 per month.

☆ Layoffs are picking up. These are the first 3 steps to take after losing your job
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Annie Nova | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In this article UALAALTSLANFLXSHOP-CALYFT Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTWanan Yossingkum | Istock | Getty ImagesThe labor market is still strong, but layoffs are picking up. File to collect unemployment benefits ASAPYou should file for unemployment benefits as soon as possible after a layoff, said Andrew Stettner, the director of workforce policy and senior fellow at The Century Foundation. Even if you received unemployment benefits earlier in the pandemic and are facing joblessness again, you may qualify for more aid. (However, if you have less than $5,000 in the account, the money may be sent to an individual retirement account for you, she added.) However, you won't be able to continue contributing to a plan at a company you're no longer working for.

☆ Many young Iranians lose their fear in struggle for "freedom"
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Parisa Hafezi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Her sentiment was echoed by a dozen young Iranians from across the country interviewed by Reuters by phone. As a young woman, her death sparked anger among Iranians who do not want their daughters arrested because of how they dress. Many young Iranians have long called for the lifting of social restrictions, such as internet censorship and strict dress codes. With student numbers swelling in Iran's young population, such signs of growing dissent cannot be easily ignored by the authorities, a former moderate official said. By defying state warnings to end protests, students have paid a heavy price.

☆ Global economy approaching a recession, central banks unchained: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The global economy is approaching a recession as economists polled by Reuters once again cut growth forecasts for key economies while central banks keep raising interest rates to bring down persistently-high inflation. After being late to call the inflation problem, global central banks have spent most of this year frontloading rate hikes to catch up. Most economists and central banks are of the view there will be little work left to do next year. Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank, said "risk of a global recession" is what everyone's talking about and has become mainstream in forecasts. Reuters Poll - Terminal rate outlookOf the 22 central banks polled this time, only six were expected to hit their inflation targets by the end of next year.

☆ India's Modi promises 1 mln government jobs as elections loom
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Modi's office said the 75,000 new recruits would join 38 ministries or departments of the federal government at various levels of seniority. It was not immediately clear if it meant there were 1 million vacancies in government departments, or if some jobs would be created. The aim is to fill up the posts by September next year, Modi said in June on Twitter. India's unemployment peaked at 23.5% in 2020 in the first full year of COVID-19, then fell back as restrictions eased. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterWriting by Krishna N. Das; Editing by Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed officials saw cost of doing too little to fight inflation outweighed doing too much
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The minutes of the Sept. 20-21 meeting showed many Fed officials "emphasized the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action." At the meeting, many officials said they had raised their assessments of the path of interest rate increases that would likely be needed to achieve the committee's goals. U.S. central bank policymakers have been united in their comments since that they see an urgent need to address inflation, which they fear risks becoming embedded, even if their aggressive policy tightening comes at a cost of higher unemployment. Fed officials have openly pushed back on that expectation, saying they expect to leave rates elevated for some time after they have finished lifting them. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed officials worried about ending inflation battle prematurely, minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The minutes of the Sept. 20-21 meeting showed many U.S. central bank officials "emphasized the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action." At the meeting, many officials said they had raised their assessments of the path of interest rate increases that would likely be needed to achieve the policy-setting committee's goals. At last month's meeting, Fed officials raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for the third straight time in an effort to drive inflation down from 40-year highs, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell vowed afterward that they would "keep at it until we're confident the job is done." A few of those, the minutes said, noted that risk was heightened by the potential headwinds from tighter monetary policy and weaker growth globally. Fed officials have openly pushed back on that expectation, saying they expect to leave rates elevated for some time after they have finished lifting them.

☆ Fed's Evans says fighting inflation is the top priority even if that means job losses
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said the central bank is holding fast in its commitment to bring down inflation even if it means people losing their jobs. "Price stability sets the stage for stronger growth in the future." "But price stability makes the future better." Evans said he sees some signs that inflation is letting up as supply chain pressures ease. Evans is a non-voter on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and has said he is leaving his position early in 2023.

☆ The Fed's fight against inflation could cost the US 1.2 million jobs
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Alicia Wallace | Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Assuming no change in the labor force, that would mean around 1.2 million more people will be unemployed. "And it's really, at this point, like telling the tide not to come in -- to expect the labor market to soften." As the unemployment rate rises, workers lose bargaining power for higher wages and households pull back on spending. Powell has said that prolonged and entrenched high inflation would be even worse than moderate increases in the unemployment rate. "If we want to set ourselves up, light the way to another period of a very strong labor market, we have got to get inflation behind us.

☆ Cramer says 3 recent trends in tech show the Fed's push against inflation is working
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Thursday said that based on his conversations with CEOs, tech companies are feeling the Federal Reserve's push against inflation. Cramer said that the tech executives he spoke to said they haven't had trouble finding talent. Cramer said that this bodes well for the Fed's quest to stamp out inflation, including wage inflation. The best tech companies have to reinvent themselves on the fly. He also reiterated that all the issues tech companies currently face are part of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's plan to cool down inflation.

☆ Breakingviews: Fed makes inflation fight Joe Biden’s problem
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

For now, the Fed thinks it can manage this without a hard landing. Even so, Powell is correct to say that inflation is worse than even a reversal in growth. Around half of small businesses now say inflation is their biggest challenge, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and the public agrees, a Pew survey showed in May. The Fed said in a statement that inflation remained elevated, echoing its previous statement in July, with “modest growth” in spending and production. In its updated set of economic projections, the Fed forecast 4.4% unemployment in 2024, compared with its previous forecast of 4.1%.

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