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While the Fed settled for a quarter-percentage-point rise, it also said "ongoing increases" would push the policy rate as high as needed. Recent data also showed inflation continuing to slow, though by less than expected. Today's 4.5%-4.75% policy rate is its highest since the eve of the housing crisis in 2007. "I don't see that indicating to me that we're slowing the economy," Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said of recent data, including strong retail sales and job growth. Richmond Fed's Barkin, by contrast, said he took little "signal" from recent data, anticipating inflation would continue falling.

☆ Buy these 16 dividend stocks to collect consistent cash payments while inflation stays high, according to a fund manager who outperformed 95% of his peers last year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

"Just simply by focusing on quality companies with strong free cash flows is going to get you through any economic cycle. When looking for dividend stocks, the fund manager said it's crucial to consider a company's cash flow to ensure that it will be able to provide consistently high cash payments each quarter. "We do think it's prudent for investors to focus on — whether it's sectors as a whole or companies — strong, resilient cash flows," Morey said. "Because in an environment that we're in right now, cash is king, and cash flows are the life of companies. And without cash flows, you're tapping into other sources for capital, which is now at a much higher rate."

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief says he thinks the S&P 500 will fall another 17% as investors ignore a growing mountain of tell-tale recession signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Doll says the S&P 500 will drop to 3,400 if a mild recession unfolds. If a more normal recession (more severe than a mild downturn) comes, Doll said the index could fall to 3,000. The Fed's recession probability tracker based on the yield curve also now puts the odds of a recession at 57%. Subramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall as low as 3,000, a view shared by Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. If trouble hits, like Doll and much of Wall Street expects, stocks could extend their fall to new lows.

☆ Buy these 12 stocks to profit from higher-than-expected price growth, according to an inflation fund manager who beat 96% of his competitors last year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Top fund manager Simon Lack shared 12 top stocks to buy while inflation remains hot. The news confirmed what Simon Lack, a 37-year market veteran who runs a leading inflation fund, has long suspected: that price growth will remain an issue for investors throughout 2023 — and possibly beyond. If high inflation is the new normal, the Fed will struggle to achieve its goal of stabilizing prices, Lack said — at least not without causing a recession. His Rational Inflation Growth Fund (IGOAX) finished in the top 4% of its category in 2022 after beating its index by 14 percentage points, according to Morningstar. By contrast, his fund goes on offense by owning stocks in sectors that benefit from high prices.

☆ Markets are kicking off a make-or-break stretch with inflation, jobs, and more Fed policy looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned — once again — last week that rates may eventually end up higher than markets anticipate as the fight against inflation remains far from over. Now, ahead of the CPI report, let's check in with the outlook for stocks. To Bernstein strategist Matthew Palazzolo, today's inflation reading will kick off a momentous five-week stretch for equities. The jobs report on March 3, the next inflation report on March 14, and the Fed meeting on March 22 will shape the rest of the year for stocks, he explained to my colleague George Glover. Your best bet for where the stock market's going this year can be found in the two-year Treasury yield, according to Mohamed El-Erian.

☆ Inflation has a 75% chance of rebounding or staying high, and the Fed could crush the economy in its attempt to fight it, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation has a 75% chance of rebounding, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. El-Erian warned inflation could remain sticky at 4%, and the Fed could spark a recession. But that optimism is premature, El-Erian warned, as inflation has a significant chance of rebounding or remaining elevated. He estimated that there was only a 25% chance of inflation steadily declining from here, and a 25% chance that prices would bounce back sharply, causing a "U inflation" scare. Bank of America also warned of rebounding inflation, which could flip the stock market upside down, analysts said.

Last week, Bailey signalled the tide was turning on inflation, even if it was too soon to declare victory. We have got the largest upside skew in our forecasts that we have ever had on inflation," Bailey said. Haskel aligned himself with Catherine Mann who also sees big upside risks to the BoE's price forecasts. By contrast, Tenreyro said the full force of the BoE's rate hikes over the last year had yet to be felt, with economic momentum already fading. "It's crucial to see it through, that we do enough to address potential upside risks to inflation," he said.

☆ Biden says the economy is doing better than last year—but 50% of Americans say they're actually worse off
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Kamaron Mcnair | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Half of Americans say their finances are worse off now than a year ago, according to a recent Gallup poll . Just 35% say their finances are in better shape now. Among middle-earners — those earning between $40,000 and $100,000 — 49% say their finances are worse now than a year ago. But 61% of those who earn $40,000 or less annually say their finances are worse now than a year ago. "When we have people worried about the national economy, they tend not to think things are bad until they actually are really bad," Jones tells CNBC Make It.

☆ Cramer’s week ahead: Fed decision on Wednesday could let the bulls ‘party on’
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Monday: WhirlpoolQ4 2022 earnings release at 4:05 p.m. Tuesday: Caterpillar, Pfizer, Advanced Micro DevicesCaterpillarQ4 2022 earnings release at 6:30 a.m. PfizerQ4 2022 earnings release at 6:45 a.m. Thursday: Ford Motor, Apple, Amazon, AlphabetFordQ4 2022 earnings release at 4:05 p.m. Friday: Regeneron PharmaceuticalsQ4 2022 earnings release at 6:30 a.m.

☆ Fed Governor Waller backs quarter-point interest rate hike at next meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday he favors a quarter percentage point interest rate increase at the next meeting, as he waits for more evidence that inflation is heading in the right direction. Other officials, such as Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, have pointed to a 0.25 percentage point increase at the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting, but Waller is the highest-ranking member to be that explicit. While the market and the Fed appear to be on the same page with where rates go in the short term, there is divergence further out. Waller said the divergence is largely about perception for where inflation is going to go. "The market has a a very optimistic view that inflation is just going to melt away.

☆ Wall Street 2023 Predictions Already Wrong: Recession, Inflation, China
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Across Wall Street, finance workers of all stripes are returning to work after skiing, gallivanting around the Caribbean, or just visiting Mom for the holiday season. Of course, there's some uncertainty in all this, and Wall Street could still be proved right. Already some Wall Street economists are revising their predictions given the strong economy, even if they're not backing off their priors quite yet. It may take years to get the Chinese consumer, on which Wall Street has placed so many hopes, back to the strength of yesteryear. Don't hatchet your chickens before they countTo be fair, not every Wall Street analyst is looking sheepish right now.

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.4% and the yen, which surged 2.7% against the dollar overnight, kept going and rose about 0.2% further to 128.65 per dollar. "No change in policy this month would be a setback for the yen," said Rabobank FX strategist Jane Foley. "However, we would look to buy the yen against the dollar on dips on anticipation of another (policy) move ... in the spring." INFLATION IN RETREATBeyond Japan, market sentiment was dominated by overnight U.S. December inflation data that landed more or less on consensus expectations. The U.S. dollar dropped 0.9% to a nine-month low of $1.0868 per euro and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose to a roughly five-month high at $0.6984.

☆ Inflation may be retreating more than December's consumer price data actually shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street rose Thursday after December's tamer consumer price index matched expectations and fueled hopes for a less aggressive Federal Reserve in 2023. What made the move in stocks even more encouraging was that it came despite a strong run-up into the inflation data that saw the market enter overbought territory, as indicated by the S & P Oscillator. On the December release, we can see that the shelter index was up 0.8% month over month and up 7.5% year over year. Just as important, investors aren't taking action based so much on current inflation as they are on expectations of future inflation. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Evercore ISI's top picks for 2023 include a tech comeback story and a car racing play
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Finding opportunities amid the market volatility is "mission critical," and there are several to be had this year, according to Evercore ISI. The Wall Street firm is predicting an economic and earnings recession, catalyzing a "cathartic" volatility spike in 2023. "Alpha opportunities are surfacing in 2022's wreckage from inflation's breakout resulting in record tightening, catalyzing a stock/bond correlated decline. With that in mind, Evercore came up with its top stock picks for 2023. The streaming company should enjoy a comeback this year, after losing 51% in 2022, according to analyst Mark Mahaney.

☆ Jim Cramer explains why the December CPI number is a ‘big deal’
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Wednesday broke down the significance of the December consumer price index report for investors. "What makes tomorrow's consumer price index number a big deal? The December consumer price index report is set to release Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the December CPI report to show that prices dipped 0.1% from the month before. Cramer said that despite Wall Street's newfound optimism, it's possible the December CPI number could bring bad news for the economy — and for corporations set to report their quarterly results in the coming weeks.

☆ Asia shares up on Fed rate wagers, China reopening lifts yuan
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 2.0% to a five-month top, with South Korean shares (.KS11) gaining 2.2%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was closed for a holiday but futures were trading at 26,215, compared with a cash close on Friday of 25,973. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major U.S. banks, with the Street fearing no year-on-year growth at all in overall earnings. "China reopening is one upside risk to 2023 EPS, but margin pressures, taxes, and recession present greater downside risks." Fed fund futures now imply around a 25% chance of a half-point hike in February, down from around 50% a month ago.

☆ Asia shares rise on U.S. rate bets, China reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.5% to a five-month top, with South Korean shares (.KS11) gaining 2.1%. S&P 500 futures added 0.2% and Nasdaq futures 0.3%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.5%, while FTSE futures firmed 0.4%. "China reopening is one upside risk to 2023 EPS, but margin pressures, taxes, and recession present greater downside risks." The market scaled back bets on rate hikes for the Federal Reserve.

☆ A major beer maker says shoppers are finally balking at rising prices — and it could signal inflation's near its peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Emma Cosgrove | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Supply chain costs have driven up beer prices. The maker of Corona says customers have started to buy less beer where prices are highest. And for that reason, beer sales are a solid indicator of the state of the economy when inflation is in play. Other players in the beer supply chain, including the stores that sell Modelo and Corona, up their own prices to varying degrees on top of the wholesale price, Newlands explained Thursday. Some supply chain costs are coming down as imports and overall freight demand cool, but those will take time to hit the balance sheet, and then perhaps eventually the shelf.

Nearly 165 million people were either in jobs or looking for them last month, a record high that showed a long-hoped-for improvement in labor supply. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jobs report is "the embodiment of the soft landing narrative - this idea that can you have a strong labor market with slowing wage growth," said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. Ideally, she said, that should allow the Fed to slow and soon pause its interest rate hikes. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsTraders took the report as evidence the Fed's work is near to being done. Still, she said, "inflation remains far too high, despite some encouraging signs lately, and is therefore of great concern."

☆ Morning Bid: Not so fast
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 14, 2022. Or so you might think looking at what consumers reckon will happen to price pressures over the coming year. The Federal Reserve keeps declaring its intention to fight inflation with both barrels, which inevitably means more rate hikes. Sure, it's down from the 4.7% in Q2 and it's the third and final reading of what happened months ago now. A look at the data shows consumers have typically been a lot more pessimistic about inflation than they've needed to be.

☆ Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, expects more rises to come
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England raised its key interest rate to 3.5% from 3% on Thursday, its ninth rate rise in a row as it tries to speed inflation's return to target after price growth hit a 41-year high in October. The BoE statement did not repeat unusual language from November when it said rates were unlikely to need to rise as far as markets expected. The European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates for the fourth time in a row on Thursday, although by less than at its last two meetings. Official figures on Wednesday showed consumer price inflation fell to 10.7% in November from 11.1% in October. That 0.4 percentage point fall in the annual rate was the largest since July 2021.

☆ Stocks are set to fall further in 2023, and investors haven't priced in a growth slowdown with inflation set to hammer corporate profits, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The growth slowdown is not yet priced," Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson told CNBC on Thursday about the potentially rough ride lower for the S&P 500 next year. Wilson has been warning of a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 3,000 in the first half of 2023. And the real question is, 'What does that mean about growth?,'" Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, said on CNBC. And that's what's going to determine the winners — it's a stock-picking game." Wilson has projected a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 3,000 in the first half of 2023.

☆ The worst of inflation is likely over, but the worst for the economy probably isn't
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

While the inflation rate is still extraordinarily high, there's widespread agreement that the peak has passed. In fact, the only sector where interest rate increases have seemed to hit so far has been housing. So with lots of policy tightening still in the pipeline, softer inflation's accompanying economic slowdown is yet to come. The Fed's critics worry that the rate increases may have gone too far and could be a severe weight on the economy once inflation wears off. However, following the CPI report traders priced in a lower "terminal rate," or end point for the Fed rate hikes.

☆ Heat pumps are an energy upgrade for homeowners that's becoming a climate and financial winner
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Cheryl Winokur Munk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Heat pumps are becoming more popular for residential housing with energy prices increasing and the need to reduce use of fossil fuel heating systems. Thinking about a home heat pump? The use of heat pumps will become more common as governments legislate their adoption. Here are four important things to know about upgrading your home to a heat pump system. "While there's an upfront cost, millions of homeowners would save money with a heat pump over the life of the device," he said.

☆ Who to tip over the holidays and how much to give, according to etiquette experts
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

During the season of giving, good etiquette dictates that you offer a tip to the people who make life a little easier throughout the year. Before you panic about adding 20 people to your budget, the first thing to know about holiday tipping is to give what you can afford. "Good tipping feels good for everyone involved," says Daniel Post Senning, co-author of "Emily Post Etiquette, The Centennial Edition." That means if any of the recommended tip amounts feel steep, it's not out of line to adjust downward to fit your budget. Remember, these aren't requirements, but suggestions meant to give you an idea of whom you might want to thank this holiday season.

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