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☆ Stocks are highly likely to crash in the next 2 months as investors are still too distracted by fads to price in credit risk, market guru says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Equity markets are likely to decline sharply within 60 days, said market guru Larry McDonald. That's because, as credit risk is rising, investors continue to focus on markets fads like AI. The Nasdaq, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average this year, is ignoring this credit risk, McDonald added. A similar pattern has played out before, with stock investors failing to assess risks as early as other investors do, he said. In recent days, others have also warned of a stock market crash.

☆ Jeremy Grantham warns the 'everything bubble' is bursting, the S&P 500 could nosedive 50%, and a recession looks certain. Here are the elite investor's 12 best quotes from a new interview.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Jeremy Grantham warned the S&P 500 could tank by up to 50% as the "everything bubble" bursts. Grantham advised against holding US stocks for now, and slammed the Fed for inflating asset bubbles. Grantham blasted the Federal Reserve for inflating asset bubbles time and again, and warned investors against holding US stocks in the short run. And yet, the Nasdaq went down 82%, Amazon went down 92%, and the S&P went down 50%. (Grantham was discussing how the the biggest asset bubbles form.)

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns that the stock sell-off is 'not over by a long shot' — and that the S&P 500 could sink by more than 50%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hussman called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Sure, the S&P 500 is down 17% from its peak on the first day of trading in 2022, 15 months ago. But the numbers don't lie, says Hussman, who called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Wilson sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300, making him one of the more bearish strategists on the Street. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did.

☆ Recessions, bank failures, and stagnant stock returns - experts see a new, difficult era dawning for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street experts see a new era ahead for markets, marked by a more difficult investing environment. Central bankers have already raised interest rates over 1,700% over the last year to quell high prices. Despite the volatility in bank stocks, Fed officials raised interest rates another 25 basis-points this week, bringing the effective Fed funds rate to 4.75-5%. That's the highest interest rates have been since 2007, and the impact of SVB's collapse is likely equivalent to another 50-75 basis points in rate hikes, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi estimated, meaning real interest rates are even more restrictive. Some experts have argued that SVB's collapse was due to the bank's uniquely high exposure to bonds, which have been weighed down heavily by rising interest rates.

☆ Stocks may crash 30% and the US economy could suffer a 2008-style collapse as the 'everything bubble' bursts, expert says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stephanie Pomboy expects US stocks to plunge 30% and a broad economic downturn to take hold. Consumers, businesses, and real estate developers are being hit by soaring interest rates, she said. The stock market could plunge 30%, and the current pressure on banks could spread to commercial real estate, corporate credit, municipal bonds, and other markets, Pomboy said. The upshot is that consumers are struggling to afford their car loans and credit cards, and many companies and real estate developers are feeling the squeeze, she continued. Here's what he said about the outlook for stocks and house prices, and the threat of a recession.

☆ Top economist David Rosenberg said the Fed should put bigger rate hikes back on the table after bouts of 'speculative lunacy'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve should weigh up another big interest-rate increase because of recent "speculative lunacy", according to David Rosenberg. "I am starting to wonder if 50 basis points shouldn't be back on the table," the top economist said. "After this recent round of speculative lunacy, I am starting to wonder if 50 basis points tomorrow shouldn't be back on the table," the Rosenberg Research president said on Twitter Tuesday. None of the investors surveyed by CME Group expected the 50-basis-point hike that Rosenberg said the Fed should be considering. The economist didn't elaborate on what he meant by "speculative lunacy" – but he was likely referring to an early-year rally for growth stocks, cryptocurrencies, and meme stocks.

☆ Nouriel Roubini and Jeremy Grantham sound the alarm for stocks in a new documentary. Here are the bearish market pros' best quotes.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Jeremy Grantham and Nouriel Roubini are well known for their bearish views on the market and economy. In a new PBS documentary about the Fed's decade of cheap money, Grantham and Roubini ring the alarm for stocks. Both Grantham and Roubini offered their views on what the Fed did to markets in the documentary, and what could happen next. Roubini on central banks driving bubbles"We have had literally a few decades of ever-increasing bubbles that have been fed and supported by central banks. The housing market, the stock market and the bond market, all overpriced at the same time.

☆ Two big Silicon Valley banks failed when the easy money ran out - and that could be just the start.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Hallam Bullock | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Before we jump into the newsletter, the Silicon Valley Bank saga is continuing to unfold, so let's quickly break down the latest. "No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer," policymakers added. The fall of SVB and Signature bank means the Fed's aggressive interest-rate hiking regime has now taken sizable casualties. A $15 billion venture capital firm had warned its startups of Silicon Valley Bank's red flags months ago. Greenoaks Capital Partners told clients in an email back in November that SVB, as well as other firms, could see problems in a high-interest-rate environment, Bloomberg reported.

☆ Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says the stock bubble is still deflating and the market will bottom in 2024 amid the Fed's 'horror show'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock bubble is still in the process of deflating and the market won't bottom until 2024, Jeremy Grantham said. The legendary investor blasted the Fed's monetary policy as a 36-year-long "horror show." He foresaw mild pain in the year ahead for investors, warning of a falloff in equities around April. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. That's similar to the rallies seen prior to the burst of the dot-com bubble, when the Nasdaq Composite plunged 40% in 2001.

☆ Stocks may crash 30% in 60 days as Americans run short of cash and investors jump ship, a markets guru says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks could plummet as much as 30% over the next two months, Larry McDonald said. "The Bear Trap Report" founder sees higher interest rates choking demand and hammering the economy. McDonald also predicts investors will swap stocks for bonds to earn higher yields. McDonald estimated that every 1% increase in rates translates into a $50 billion rise in costs for middle-class Americans. He noted that interest rates on US auto loans are approaching 14%, and nearly 20% of those loans cost over $1,000 each month.

☆ VIEW Canada's economy unexpectedly stalled in Q4; January rebound likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TORONTO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy recorded no growth in the final three months of 2022, massively underperforming expectations, though economic activity likely rebounded with a 0.3% increase in January, Statistics Canada data showed on Tuesday. "Even with the January rebound, however, Q4 and Q1 combined seem likely to average slightly below the Bank of Canada's prior forecasts which supports the current pause in terms of interest rates." It'll be a short and sweet statement saying that they're still on a conditional hold and evaluating the lagging effects. They'll want to see a whole lot more data before they're convinced that they're either done and/or that they're going to act again." ROBERT BOTH, MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES"It is a pretty large miss on Q4.

☆ Economists urge China to think 'beyond GDP' to head off climate risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( David Stanway | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 23 (Reuters) - A team of influential economists has urged China to adopt a new development model based on "wellbeing" rather than GDP growth in order to fulfil its 2060 net-zero emissions goals and head off the mounting threats of climate change. The old development model drove rapid growth in China over the last four decades, but is putting the world at "grave risk", the report said. China began experimenting with "green GDP" in 2005 as concerns mounted about the environmental damage done by rapid industrialisation. A 2006 government report concluded that environmental losses amounted to 3% of total GDP, but critics believed the actual figure was much higher. China is home to 16 of the 20 global regions most vulnerable to climate change, data showed on Monday.

☆ VC firm Counteract just reached first close on its $42 million carbon removal fund. We got an exclusive look at the 11-slide LP deck it used to secure cash from The Grantham Foundation.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Tasmin Lockwood | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

VC firm Counteract has reached first close on its inaugural £35 million fund. It plans to back 40 global companies across all elements of carbon removal. London-based firm Counteract, founded in 2021, has just reached first close on its inaugural £35 million, about $41.9 million, fund. Direct air capture is one of the best-known carbon removal technologies thanks to Swiss company Climeworks. Isaacs stressed the importance of exploring all potential technologies as carbon removal evolves alongside policy, making it inherently risky.

The jobless rate held steady at 5%, which is just a decimal point higher than the record low, Statistics Canada (Statscan) said. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 15,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.1% in January. "However, that won't stop markets reacting to today's strong data by pricing in a greater probability of further hikes, and pricing out rate cuts," he said. Before the jobs numbers, markets had been betting that the Bank of Canada's next move would be to cut rates. When he announced a pause on rates, Governor Tiff Macklem said it was "conditional" and did not rule out further increases.

☆ Why top Wall Street investors say there's never been a better time to invest your money overseas — and where they say the 7 best opportunities are
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But when US stocks deliver low annualized returns over a 10-year period, international stocks almost always deliver better performance. They included: global value vs. growth; emerging value equities; Japanese small value; and European small value. Among those, Inker and GMO are plugging the most money into global value and emerging market value stocks. Perfect timing would have seen investors hold their fire in emerging markets in 2001-02 to hit the very bottom. "Emerging-markets value, international value represent bargains.

☆ An economics researcher is warning that the next few decades could bring a massive stock market collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US stock market could face collapse by 2050, according to new research by a Finnish economist. Grosby's paper re-examined past studies of stock market crashes to determine if another cataclysm was headed for the US market. Using a model that detects faster-than-exponential growth to identify stock market bubbles, the researchers concluded that the US equity market was headed for a collapse in 2052. He also re-calibrated the model, as other analyses show it could be overestimating the time it takes for a stock market crash to occur. His findings echo warnings from prominent Wall Street commentators, who say disaster looms over the stock market.

☆ Stocks are getting a boost from a key indicator that's been a reliable sign of more gains to come
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In case you missed it, the European Central Bank Thursday made a half-point interest rate hike, marking its fifth consecutive move as part of its inflation-fighting efforts. Speaking of rates, today we're going over a key economic indicator that suggests more upside ahead for stocks. Ever since the Fed started tightening policy last March, the stock market has been highly susceptible to interest-rate volatility. Specifically, the MOVE Index — which measures volatility of US Treasury yields — has dipped to lows that haven't been seen since the Fed's first rate hike of this cycle. This means potentially smaller swings in the stock market as highly rate-sensitive equities get some relief after big rate moves battered indexes in 2022.

☆ There's a buzz about green hydrogen. But pink, produced using nuclear, may have a huge role to play too
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Anmar Frangoul | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In this article EDF-FRNG.-GBTSLA Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTBoth pink and blue have been used to differentiate between different methods of hydrogen production. Indeed, according to a Sept. 2022 tracking report from the International Energy Agency, low-emission hydrogen production in 2021 accounted for less than 1% of global hydrogen production. These include green hydrogen, which refers to hydrogen produced using renewables and electrolysis, with an electric current splitting water into oxygen and hydrogen. "But splitting water takes energy, so what pink hydrogen is about is splitting water using energy that has come from nuclear." This needed "supportive policies which encourage investment in early hydrogen production projects and encourage users to switch from fossil fuels to low carbon hydrogen."

☆ Jeremy Grantham's right-hand man Ben Inker shares 5 trades to start making now for the best returns and smallest downside risk in the cheapest parts of the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

They include:Global Value vs. GrowthEmerging Value EquitiesJapanese Small ValueEuropean Small ValueResource StocksGlobal value and emerging market value stocks carry the most weight in the strategy among these five factors at 20% and 16%, respectively. In fact, he and his firm think some broader equity indices like the S&P 500 may still have big downside. the S&P 500) will deliver negative returns over the next seven-year period. "When markets did decisively turn in 2003 and the S&P 500 gained a gratifying 28.7%, Emerging rose a stunning 55.8%. Perfect timing would have seen investors hold their fire in emerging markets in 2001-02 to hit the very bottom.

☆ The 'problematic' stock rally will fade as the Fed wrangles sticky inflation and recession hits in the 2nd half of the year, Credit Suisse strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rally in stocks that's kicked off 2023 is "problematic," according to Credit Suisse strategist Patrick Palfrey. Palfrey warned that gains will be fleeting as the Fed continues to battle sticky inflation. That could spark a recession and a sell-off in the market in the second half of the year, he predicted. Though prices cooled to 6.5% in December, inflation is likely to remain sticky in the second half of the year, Palfrey said. I think those are going to be a headwind for the market as we start to approach the latter half of the year," Palfrey warned.

☆ 'Big Short' legend Michael Burry issues a grave warning to investors with a one-word tweet: 'Sell.'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Burry recently compared the S&P 500's rebound to its short-lived rally during the dot-com crash. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained 6.2% in January, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11%, marking its best January performance since 2001. Burry has been pouring cold water on the stock rally this year. The implication was that the S&P 500's 17% rally since last October's low could also prove short-lived. GMO's Jeremy Grantham recently declared the S&P 500 could plummet 50% in a worst-case scenario, while Universa Investments's Mark Spitznagel diagnosed the "greatest tinderbox-timebomb in financial history."

☆ Some Wall Street analysts are predicting a market decline. Here's when that might happen
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In Europe, the STOXX 600 has increased by more than 15% over the same period. - Jan. 24 UBS: STOXX 600 down 8% to 410 by Dec. - Jan. 11 JP Morgan: STOXX 600 up 3% to 465 by Dec. We believe that the current market rally will start fading as we move through Q1. - Jan. 23 Barclays: STOXX 600 up 6% to 475 by Dec.

☆ Wall Street is still obsessed with Tesla. Here's what experts are saying as the EV-maker's key earnings report looms.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

I'm senior reporter Phil Rosen, here to ring in a pivotal Tesla earnings report with you this morning. But his wealth — and the wealth of his shareholders — could whipsaw today, depending on what comes across in a particularly important earnings report. But amid the bearishness (not to mention distractions from Twitter), Elon Musk's car maker is still a favorite on Wall Street. FactSet data shows that 64% of analysts give Tesla stock a "buy" or "overweight" rating. US stock futures fall early Wednesday, after Microsoft earnings delivered a bleak outlook that added to investors' worries about earnings growth.

☆ Jeremy Grantham says the first leg of bursting bubble is complete, but still more losses to go
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Jeremy Grantham, famed investor with a history of calling bear markets including the one last year, said investors should brace for even more losses in 2023 as the bursting of the growth stock bubble was just the beginning. "Given the complexities of an ever-changing world, investors should have far less certainty about the timing and extent of the next leg down from here." Grantham, the co-founder of Grantham Mayo van Otterloo in 1977, is a widely-followed investor and market historian with a track record of identifying market bubbles. He foresaw the 2008 bear market and the dot-com bubble-bursting of 2000. Despite the great uncertainties ahead, there are still a number of reasonable investment opportunities in the markets, including emerging markets, which are reasonably priced, Grantham said.

☆ Canada posts hefty job gains, raising chances of another rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The economy gained a net 104,000 jobs in December, far exceeding analysts' forecasts, while the jobless rate decreased to 5% from 5.1% in November, Statistics Canada data showed. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 8,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.2%. Money markets now see a 75% chance of a 25-bp rate increase in January, up from roughly 60% before the data. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose by a net 22,200, mainly in construction. Employees in the private sector rose by 112,000 in December, the largest increase since February, while public sector and self-employed workers were both little changed, Statscan said.

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