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REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsChocolate makers are banking on the traditional resilience of their product to price increases. The data showed Hershey's sales volumes increasingly declined during the period as the company hiked prices. "We are seeing consumers starting to react more than before, I'd be very cautious with price increases," said Dan Sadler, a candy expert at U.S.-based market researcher IRI. Barry Callebaut (BARN.S), the world's biggest chocolate maker supplying most major brands including Nestle (NESN.S), doesn't expect any growth in sales volumes this year. Pennsylvania-based Hershey, is hoping that as it eases off the rate of price hikes, its sales volumes will reverse their current downtrend.
Persons: Nielsen, Dirk Van de, Luca Zaramella, Patrick Folan, Mike Blake, Mondelez, Hershey, Zaramella, Bernstein, I'd, Dan Sadler, Barry Callebaut, Hershey's, Michele Buck, Matt Scuffham, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: Nielsen, Hershey, Reuters, Consumers, Cadbury, Barclays, REUTERS, IRI, Nestle, Rabobank, El, Kailyn, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, North America, Encinitas , California, U.S, Pennsylvania, El Nino, West Africa, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Kailyn Rhone, New York
Take Five: Farewell to a bruising August
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 14, 2023. Other data such as consumer confidence, the state of manufacturing, and inflation, with the latest personal consumption expenditures index is also due. Line chart with data from Refinitiv Datstreamn shows U.S. unemployment rate and federal funds target rate from January 2021 to July 2023. Yet Thursday's flash euro area August inflation number, which follows releases from some member states, could be the decider. The world's most populous country is already concerned about the threat to production of several basic commodities, including rice and sugar.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Nigel Hunt, Dhara, payrolls, Bundesbank, buybacks, Xi Jinping, Karin Strohecker, Sharon Singleton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, ECB, Reuters, Nino, Climate, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, Amsterdam, London, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Indonesia, Thailand
Thursday's sell-off is a buying opportunity as key support levels remain in place, according to Fundstrat. Stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday after the market failed to maintain the momentum from much stronger-than-expected earnings out of Nvidia. The S & P 500 initially popped before ending the day down 1.35% — it's biggest one-day loss since Aug. 2. "Bottom line, Thursday's reversal wasn't severe enough to call for a pullback to new monthly lows," Newton said. "Moreover, I'm still expecting that U.S. Equity markets can move higher after Thursday's reversal, which might allow for a brief move above SPX-4500 before any additional weakness gets underway."
Persons: Thursday's, Mark Newton, Newton, I'm Organizations: Nvidia, . Equity
And hedge fund manager David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners told CNBC's " Street Signs Asia " that the "best asset class" is oil stocks. Typically, in a recession, oil prices could dive to $50 a barrel, he said. Stocks to buy Neuhauser said Livermore owns small-cap energy stocks Kolibri Global and Vista Energy — because of limited supply and strong returns on capital, as well as low valuations. Still, energy stocks are an option for investors seeking inflation protection, Dietze said. He said energy stocks are "a far superior alternative" to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.
Persons: BofA, David Neuhauser, CNBC's, Neuhauser, Livermore, David Dietze, Dietze, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, subsector, That's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Livermore Partners, Vista Energy, Wealth Management, Exxon, Mizuho, Securities, Dominion Energy Locations: Chevron, U.S, Wednesday's, Saudi
U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 30, 2023. China's yuan briefly popped to a one-week high as the central bank again tried to bolster the currency by setting a much stronger-than-anticipated daily mid-point, but those gains fizzled out quickly. Money markets currently lay a bit less than 50/50 odds for another 25 basis point Fed hike by November, before the central bank shifts to rate cuts next year. Traders are wary of intervention after levels around 146 spurred the first yen buying by Japanese officials in a generation last September. On Thursday, the dollar reached 146.565 yen for the first time since Nov. 10.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda, Richard Franulovich, Powell, Kristina Clifton, Kevin Buckland, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, Bank of Japan, U.S ., Westpac, Treasury, Traders, Sterling, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Bank, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, China's, Beijing, China
Dollar hovers near highs as U.S. yields surge; PBOC bolsters yuan
  + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
In this photo illustration, 100 U.S. dollar notes and 100 yuan notes are displayed. Money markets currently lay a bit less than 50/50 odds for another 25 basis point Fed hike by November, before the central bank shifts to rate cuts next year. The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2872, after firming about 0.1% after the fixing. The Australian dollar , which often trades as a proxy to China, was also little changed at $0.6413 after initially strengthening slightly following the fixing. The Aussie has grinded higher in recent sessions after dropping to a 9 1/2-month low of $0.6365 on Thursday.
Persons: Richard Franulovich, Jerome Powell's, Franulovich, Powell, Kristina Clifton Organizations: U.S, U.S ., Westpac, Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, China's, Beijing, China
Dollar gains intact as China disappoints, traders eye Jackson Hole
  + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yuan slid to the weak side of 7.3 per dollar despite a firm fixing of its trading range by the central bank. The Antipodean currencies often function as a liquid proxy for the yuan owing to the region's exports to China. Like the yuan, the yen is also on intervention-watch, having fallen to levels around which authorities stepped in last year. The Swiss franc was just above a six-week low made last week at 0.8817 per dollar. "Two things that may come across are: decades of ultra-low rates backed by ultra-low inflation may be over," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.
Persons: Jackson, Sterling, Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Federal, Treasury, New Zealand, Australian, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Swiss, Mizuho Bank Locations: China, London, New York, Wyoming, Singapore
The August sell-off has stocks testing some key technical levels, spurring investors to watch where equities will go next. Now, investors are watching to see where the S & P 500 goes next. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 1-year The strategist said this threshold is a key support as it's a convergence of several trends in the market. The S & P 500 fell to roughly 3,800 in March before resuming its march upward. A combination of technical factors imply that the S & P may test the 4,200 level but might not break significantly below that."
Persons: Sam Stovall, Stovall, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, Michael Bloom Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Locations: China
As we enter its final two weeks, August is living up to its reputation as a lousy month. With a decline of 4.8%, this is the worst month so far for the S & P 500 since December 2022. As we entered August, the S & P 500 was approaching a valuation of 20 times forward earnings. We've spent a lot of time talking about the high multiple (P/E ratio) for the S & P 500. The ERP is usually calculated using a short-hand method: S & P 500 earnings yield (the inverse of the P/E ratio) minus the 10-year Treasury yield.
Persons: Friday's, We've, Lowry, we're, Jerome Powell Organizations: Technology, Treasury
"The increase in sugar and cocoa specifically is material," Mondelez CFO Luca Zaramella said in July. The data showed Hershey's sales volumes increasingly declined during the period as the company hiked prices. Barry Callebaut (BARN.S), the world's biggest chocolate maker supplying most major brands including Nestle (NESN.S), doesn't expect any growth in sales volumes this year. In the U.S., private label sales volumes grew nearly 9% in the year to mid-June despite near double-digit price rises, IRI data shows. Pennsylvania-based Hershey, is hoping that as it eases off the rate of price hikes, its sales volumes will reverse their current downtrend.
Persons: Mike Blake, Dirk Van de, Luca Zaramella, Patrick Folan, Mondelez, Hershey, Zaramella, Bernstein, I'd, Dan Sadler, Barry Callebaut, Hershey's, Michele Buck, Matt Scuffham, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: REUTERS, Hershey, Reuters, Consumers, Nielsen, Cadbury, Barclays, IRI, Nestle, Rabobank, El, Kailyn, Thomson Locations: Encinitas , California, Europe, North America, U.S, Pennsylvania, El Nino, West Africa, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Kailyn Rhone, New York
Companies Eurostat FollowFRANKFURT, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation slower further and even underlying price pressures appear to have peaked, Eurostat data showed on Friday, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising rates after its fastest rate-hike cycle on record. Consumer prices increased by 5.3% in July versus 5.5% in June, extending a downtrend that started last autumn. Meanwhile price growth excluding food and energy, the underlying measure closely watched by the ECB, was flat at 5.5%, Eurostat said, confirming preliminary figures. Underlying price pressures are still strong and the labour market is unusually tight, suggesting that wage pressures will persist as workers enjoy superb bargaining power. But economic growth is stagnating, investment is falling and overall consumption is flat, at best, suggesting that price pressures should ease as the economy suffers.
Persons: Balazs Koranyi, Sharon Singleton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Eurostat, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, disinflation
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's investment committee respond to this week's market downtrendKari Firestone, Steve Weiss, Josh Brown, and Brian Belski join 'Halftime Report' to discuss seasonal market trends, what to buy amid the current dip, and market headwinds from student loan repayment starting and China's financial woes.
Persons: downtrend Kari Firestone, Steve Weiss, Josh Brown, Brian Belski Organizations: Watch
Bitcoin tumbled to finish the week after many weeks of stillness in the market, and chart analysts say it's possible this could be just the beginning. Bitcoin also broke its 200-day moving average of $27,300, which could signal an impending downtrend. A range emerges between $25,000 and $30,000 Bitcoin has been here before. The $25,000 level was a key resistance threshold from last summer through March of this year after bitcoin briefly touched $30,000 in its banking crisis-fueled rally. Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton puts the next downside target a little higher at $25,200, with a secondary target level of $20,600.
Persons: Bitcoin, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, bitcoin, Julius de Kempenaer, de Kempenaer, Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, Katie Stockton, Stockton Organizations: Elon, SpaceX, CNBC, BlackRock, BTC
Watch CNBC's investment committee discuss Apple's downtrend
  + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's investment committee discuss Apple's downtrendJosh Brown, Jenny Harrington, and Capital Wealth Planning CIO Kevin Simpson, join 'Halftime Report' to discuss the market impact of Apple's downward trend, searching for stability in equities outside of the magnificent 7, and the importance of hedging with portfolio diversification.
Persons: Josh Brown, Jenny Harrington, Kevin Simpson Organizations: Watch, Capital Wealth
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan. Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe Japanese yen breached the 145 mark against the dollar on Monday, the first time since November 2022. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconIn a forex snap note on Monday, HSBC said it expects the Japanese Ministry of Finance to "start pushing back in the 145-148 range." The Japanese government and the BOJ stepped in to buy the yen at 145 to the dollar in September 2022. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconThe U.S. dollar has also been on an uptrend since end July, with the dollar index climbing from a low of 99.77 on July 13 to its current level of 102.99.
Persons: Ohsumi Organizations: U.S, The U.S, Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of Japan, HSBC, Ministry of Finance, U.S ., Treasury Locations: Tokyo, Japan, The
A gentle downtrend in foreign direct investment gave way to a steep drop last quarter and inflows to China slammed to their lowest since records began 25 years ago, raising the prospect that the long-term trend is turning. Sources have told Reuters the Biden administration is likely to adopt new outbound investment restrictions on China in the coming weeks. Japan, the U.S. and Europe have already restricted the sale of high-tech chipmaking tools to Chinese companies while China has hit back by throttling exports of raw materials. To be sure, investment flows often fluctuate and many firms aren't leaving China completely or aren't leaving at all. "A lot of our clients are worried about their exposure to China as a sole country of supply."
Persons: Carlos Barria, Deng Xiaoping, Logan Wright, Biden, John Ramig, Buchalter, Daniel Seeff, Cardigan, Chi Lo, Lee Smith, Baker Donelson, Samuel Shen, Tom Westbrook, Winni Zhou, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Corporate, China Markets, China's, Administration of Foreign Exchange, Investors, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Ministry of Commerce, Management, Thomson Locations: Pudong, Shanghai, SHANGHAI, SYDNEY, China, Japan, U.S, Europe, Haining, Peru, Hong Kong, Baker, Singapore
Euro zone inflation falls further in comforting sign for ECB
  + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
FRANKFURT, July 31 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation fell further in July and most measures of underlying price growth also eased, in a largely comforting sign for the European Central Bank (ECB) as it considers ending its severe run of interest rate hikes. Consumer prices grew by 5.3% this month versus 5.5% in June, extending a downtrend that started in the autumn. "Services inflation is the area where monetary policy should have the greatest influence because it reflects domestic demand," Dirk Schumacher, an economist at Natixis said. Hawks could also point at hard data about growth, which showed the euro zone returned to growth in the second quarter of 2023 despite negative sentiment and activity polls. The weak survey data has continued to come in in recent days, fuelling talk of a recession in the euro area that the ECB is still hoping to avoid.
Persons: Frederik Ducrozet, Christine Lagarde, Dirk Schumacher, Natixis, Francesco Canepa, Peter Graff Organizations: European Central Bank, Pictet Wealth Management, ECB, Oxford, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT
Copper M&A more than doubled in 2002 to $14.24 billion from the previous year, according to an S&P Intelligence report. "So the large miners are saying it is difficult to build new supply, so let's just buy companies," McDonald said. Copper prices have been gradually losing steam since hitting their strongest levels in over seven months in January when optimism abounded about the reopening of China. The lower copper price presents M&A opportunities for Hudbay, Kukielski said, but it will also get "squeezed" if the price of copper falls below $3.50. With lack of large mines up for grabs, he is expecting that large miners will be looking to expand their production by acquiring smaller mines.
Persons: Lundin, Newmont, Stuart McDonald, Taseko, McDonald, Antaike, Peter Kukielski, Kukielski, Minto Metals, Aaron Colleran, Colleran, David Lennox, Divya Rajagopal, Melanie Burton, Denny Thomas, Marguerita Choy Organizations: TORONTO, Reuters, Nippon Mining, Metals, P Intelligence, Taseko, London Metal Exchange, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Hudbay, Japan's Sumitomo Corp, Minto Metals, Yukon, Royal Bank of Canada, Quantum Minerals, Ivanhoe Mines, Capstone, Barrick Gold, Bloomberg News, Barrick, AIC Mines, AIC, Sydney, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, Toronto, Chile, Vancouver, Arizona, China, Hudbay, Canada, Yukon, Ivanhoe, Australia, Queensland, Melbourne
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slipped 0.5%, heading for a weekly loss of 1.8%. Shares of Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC (2330.TW) slumped 3.3%, after the world's largest contract chipmaker flagged a 10% drop in 2023 sales. The U.S. dollar index was little changed at 100.78, after advancing 0.5% overnight, the biggest one-day gain since mid-May. The Australian dollar gave up almost all of its gains made after a strong local jobs data release to hover below 68 cents. Brent crude futures were up 0.8% at $80.27 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.8% to $76.25.
Persons: BOJ, TSMC, HSI, Wanda, Betty Wang, Stella Qiu, Lincoln Organizations: Netflix, Fed, ECB, Tesla, Treasury, Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Japan's Nikkei, HK, ANZ, U.S, Australian, TD Securities, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Beijing, Europe
Morgan Stanley — Shares of the James Gorman-led bank jumped more than 6% after the firm posted second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped analysts' expectations. Bank of America – Bank of America shares rose nearly 4% after the company reported second-quarter financial results. Bank of New York Mellon — Shares rose more than 4% after Bank of New York Mellon reported second-quarter revenue and profit that beat Wall Street's expectations. PNC Financial — Shares gained 2.6% after PNC Financial reported second-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street's earnings expectations but came in slightly short on revenue. The Swiss pharmaceutical firm reported second-quarter earnings that topped estimates, according to StreetAccount.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley —, James Gorman, Morgan Stanley's, Refinitiv, PacWest, Bernstein, UnitedHealth, Pinterest, intraday, Masimo preannounced, Stifel, Lockheed Martin, Macheel, Sarah Min, Yun Li, Alex Harring, Michelle Fox Organizations: Bank of America – Bank of America, Regional Banking, Western Alliance, FB Financial, Verizon, AT, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC, PNC Financial, Novartis — U.S, Novartis, Sandoz, Masimo, Lockheed Locations: San Francisco , California, Swiss, FactSet
On a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded 6.3% in the second quarter, accelerating from 4.5% in the first three months of the year, but the rate was well below the forecast for growth of 7.3%. "The data suggests that China's post-COVID boom is clearly over," said Carol Kong, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. The latest data raises the risk of China missing its modest 5% growth target for 2023, some economists say. Authorities are likely to roll out more stimulus steps including fiscal spending to fund big-ticket infrastructure projects, more support for consumers and private firms, and some property policy easing, policy insiders and economists said. So I think this does raise greater urgency for more policy support soon."
Persons: Carol Kong, Alvin Tan, Harry Murphy Cruise, Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Analysts, Authorities, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, stoke, Moody’s, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, Sydney, China, Asia, Singapore
Property sales by floor area declined 28.1% year-on-year, extending a 19.7% fall in May, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). For June, property investment totaled to 1.2849 trillion yuan, falling 20.6% from a year earlier after a 21.5% drop in May, according to Reuters calculations. For January-June, property sales by floor area were down 5.3% year-on-year compared with a 0.9% fall in the first five months. Property investment fell 7.9% in the first six months, after slumping 7.2% in January-May from the same period a year earlier. New construction starts measured by floor area fell 24.3% year-on-year, after a 22.6% drop in the first five months.
Persons: Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Kim Coghill, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Authorities, Thomson Locations: BEIJING
Goldman Sachs said the odds of a recession in the next 12 months have fallen to 20% from 25% earlier. In a note on Monday, the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 20%, down from an earlier estimate of 25%. Meanwhile, Goldman is also putting less emphasis on the inverted yield curve, a traditionally reliable indicator of an approaching recession. But in today's cycle, it may be misguided, due in part to the possibility that the Fed may cut rates to respond to slowing inflation, not a recession, Hatzius said. For the US, the bank forecast only one remaining interest rate hike, in line with what a majority of investors expect.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, Brazil, Poland, Chile,
Investment in the critical minerals pipeline grew by 20% in 2021 and by 30% in 2022, led by lithium, copper and nickel. Although prices of some critical minerals such as copper have eased over the last year due to recession in the "old economy", prices for most critical minerals remain well above historical averages as supply struggles to catch up with demand. Production trends for nickel and cobaltLIMITED DIVERSIFICATIONThere has been only limited success in diversifying the geographical sourcing of critical minerals in recent years, the IEA said. China, which already dominates lithium processing, accounts for half of the world's planned new lithium chemical plants. Moreover, China's move to control exports of gallium and germanium underlines the concentration of supply in a host of smaller, esoteric metals that feed into the critical minerals landscape.
Persons: China's, IRENA, David Evans, Mark Potter Organizations: International Energy Agency, Investment, IEA, International Renewable Energy Agency, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Canada, Australia, China, Indonesia, United States, Europe, South America
At JPMorgan, the nation's largest bank, average deposits fell 6% in the second quarter to $2.4 trillion from a year earlier. The central bank reported total bank deposits fell 1.2% to $17.26 trillion through the week ended June 28 versus $17.47 trillion at the end of March. For large banks, deposits fell 1.3% to $10.80 trillion from $10.95 trillion during same period, the Fed data showed. And for small banks, deposits fell 0.9% to $5.18 trillion from $5.23 trillion. The declines were notably smaller than the first-quarter drops of 2.4% for large banks and 3.3% for small banks.
Persons: Morgan Chase, Mike Segar, Wells, Mike Santomassimo, Jeremy Barnum, Jamie Dimon, Kenneth Leon, Saeed Azhar, Dan Burns, Nupur Anand, Tatiana Bautzer, Lananh Nguyen, Mark Potter Organizations: Co, New York City, REUTERS, JPMorgan, First Republic Bank, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York, Wells Fargo
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