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CNBC Daily Open: In the eye of the storm
  + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Indeed, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell by 2%. We might just be in the eye of a storm. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open: A deceptive calmness
  + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Indeed, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell by 2%. April's consumer price index report, expected Wednesday, and the producer price index on Thursday will either reinforce or dispel some of those fears. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
WASHINGTON — Failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling would cause an "economic catastrophe," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday. Yellen's comments came as a political stalemate over raising the debt limit was forcing the Treasury Department dangerously close to a worst-case scenario: a potential U.S. debt default. This would occur if Treasury were to exhaust the extraordinary measures it implemented earlier this year to meet its obligations after the U.S. reached its statutory debt limit of $31.4 trillion. In order to avoid a default on the nation's debt, Congress must vote to either raise or suspend the debt limit before Treasury runs out of emergency funding. "There's a very big gap between where the president is and where the Republicans are" on raising the debt ceiling, Yellen said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPresident Biden set to meet with congressional leaders for emergency debt ceiling discussionCNBCs Eamon Javers joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the emergency debt ceiling meeting tomorrow, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's warnings of a debt ceiling default, and concerns over tax revenues coming in lighter than expected.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInaction from congress on debt ceiling 'will be throwing flames on a fire', says Matt MaleyMatt Maley, Miller Tabak + Co. chief strategist, and Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald head of equity derivatives, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' with reaction to Secretary Yellen's comments on the debt ceiling, U.S. dollar, a possible recession and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors can bet on continued strength of macroeconomy, says Unlimited's Bob ElliottBob Elliott, Unlimited Co-Founder and CIO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' with reaction to Secretary Janet Yellen's comments on the banking sector.
The union in the complaint said it will seek an order temporarily blocking the debt limit law while the case proceeds. The union said in the lawsuit that Congress cannot impose a debt limit "without at least setting the order and priority of payments once that limit is reached, instead of leaving it to the president to do so." The union is seeking to strike down the law setting a debt limit and to block the Biden administration from limiting borrowing in the event of a default so it can continue funding government agencies. The U.S. reached its debt limit in January, and Yellen at the time told Congress that she would suspend investments in federal government workers' retirement and health benefit funds to avoid an immediate default. But Biden and other Democrats have insisted that raising the debt limit should not be linked to budget talks.
Watch CNBC's full interview with Unlimited's Bob Elliott
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Unlimited's Bob ElliottBob Elliott, Unlimited Co-Founder and CIO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' with reaction to Secretary Janet Yellen's comments on the banking sector.
For the immediate economic and earnings and growth outlook, it almost seems irrelevant whether regional bank stocks rally, steady or sell off more next week. Regional banks were top of mind for investors this past week, as First Republic failed , the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF tumbled more than 10% — twice the five-day loss in the S & P 500 Energy Index, the hardest hit S & P sector — and lenders such as PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp lost billions in market value. And, for all that, the S & P 500 only fell about 0.75% this week. Now the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that regardless of how the regional bank stocks trade, it's a given that bank lending officers are going to pull in their horns and risk management desks will grow more risk averse. But stocks still face a host of issues, none of which are going away next week.
The United States could run out of money to pay its bills as soon as June 1 if Congress does not raise its self-imposed $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Democrats say they might try to pass a "clean" debt ceiling hike, but that would be unlikely to win enough Republican votes for passage. The centerpiece of the House Republican plan would scale back a wide swath of annual government spending to last year's levels, a cut of about 8%, and cap its growth by 1% each year after that. The Republican plan does not specify how individual programs would fare. Democrats have argued that domestic spending would take the biggest hit, as Republicans would try to protect military and veterans programs.
The US could run out of money as soon as June 1, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. That leaves Congress with as few as 12 working days to act and avert economic crisis. If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by then, the country will enter default, which would be unprecedented and economically catastrophic. The White House Council of Economic Advisers estimates that a short default would lead to the GDP shrinking by 0.6% and the country shedding half a million jobs. Even with the White House raising the alarm on the consequences of a default, some GOP lawmakers aren't too worried about Yellen's June 1 deadline.
The market swoon from what would be an unprecedented U.S. default would bludgeon away billions more in wealth. The cost to insure U.S. government debt against default has shot to the highest since the 2007-2009 financial crisis. All of that takes air out the economy's tires and could start to push up the unemployment rate, now at a historically low 3.5%. Some top economic policymakers like those at the Fed had predicted as early as last December that the unemployment rate would be roughly 1 percentage point higher by the end of 2023. A debt crisis and a default, even if only on some of the interest payments due each day, would move it forward, Bostjancic said.
Democrats have prepared to use an obscure legal strategy to force a vote to raise the debt ceiling. Attempting the rarely-successful move, called a discharge petition, requires months of legal prep. All 213 Democratic members, plus five Republicans, need to sign the petition to bypass leadership. 218 petition signatures — meaning every single Democratic member of the House, as well as five Republicans willing to split with party leadership to force a vote on the stalled bill. He added: "Given Treasury Secretary Yellen's announcement yesterday that Congress may only have until June 1st to raise the debt limit to avoid a catastrophic default and Republicans' refusal to support a clean debt limit increase, Democrats are keeping all of our options open."
Biden called Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Jerusalem, where he is on a diplomatic trip, to invite him to a May 9 White House meeting. Biden also extended invitations to House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican leader Mitch McConnell. Biden has steadfastly said he will not negotiate over the debt ceiling increase, but will discuss budget cuts after a new limit is passed. A White House official said Biden, who had previously said he wouldn't meet McCarthy at all to discuss the debt limit, would "stress that Congress must take action to avoid default without conditions" on May 9. The bill has no chance of passing the Democrat-controlled Senate and the White House has said Biden would veto the legislation if it did.
WASHINGTON, May 2 (Reuters) - President Joe Biden will not negotiate over the debt ceiling during his meeting with four top congressional leaders on May 9, but he will discuss starting "a separate budget process" to talk about spending priorities, the White House said on Tuesday. "He is not going to negotiate on the debt ceiling," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. The White House and Biden have previously asked Republicans for a clean debt ceiling hike and offered to discuss spending once the risk of default is off the table. The White House knew Yellen's letter would be released on Monday, Jean-Pierre said. Biden called Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Jerusalem, where he is on a diplomatic trip, to invite him to the May 9 White House meeting.
Jim Cramer's strategy for navigating the 4 hurdles facing the stock marketJim Cramer said Tuesday that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's debt-ceiling comments necessitated a change in his near-term approach to the stock market. He also analyzed the latest news hitting energy stocks and looked head to AMD's earnings report. A transcript will be added shortly.
House Republicans passed a bill to raise the debt limit last week that includes steep spending cuts which the Democratic-controlled Senate and Biden say they will not approve. Biden has steadfastly said he will not negotiate over the debt ceiling increase, but will discuss budget cuts after a new limit is passed. In 2011, a similar debt ceiling fight took the country to the brink of default and prompted a downgrade of the country's top-notch credit rating. The Republican bill would implement $4.5 trillion in spending cuts - or about 22% - in exchange for a $1.5 trillion increase in the U.S. debt limit. It has no chance of passing the Democrat-controlled Senate and the White House has said Biden would veto the legislation.
May 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The White House said First Republic was "severely mismanaged," the takeover protects depositors and the current banking turmoil bears no resemblance to 2008. Anyone who went long mega tech and short regional U.S. banks on Dec. 31 will be sitting pretty today. Expectations for further tightening this year are far from certain, and are gradually being pushed into the third quarter. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday warned that the United States may run out of measures to pay its debt obligations by June 1, earlier than the government and Wall Street had been expecting. The combination of Yellen's letter and the new CBO estimate added a fresh sense of urgency to stalled negotiations between President Joe Biden and McCarthy's Republican majority in the House. "Republicans' failure to agree to cleanly raise the debt ceiling has brought the United States to the brink of economic catastrophe," said Democratic Senate Budget Committee chairman Sheldon Whitehouse, R.I., in response to Yellen's letter. The Goldman Sachs estimate noted that so far there have been few ripples in the markets from rising debt-related risk. But this could change, analysts wrote, "once the Treasury announces a specific deadline for Congress to raise the debt limit."
ORLANDO, Florida, April 28 (Reuters) - With the U.S. debt ceiling crisis set to reach boiling point between June and August, it already promises to be a long hot summer for financial markets. - and inflation is high, while history shows the U.S. Congress certainly has the ability to push debt ceiling negotiations to the brink. "Markets are fundamentally intolerant of tightening liquidity conditions, and you could see this confluence of tightening liquidity where the debt ceiling and YCC come together," said Alex Lennard, investment director at Ruffer LLP. Default fears could suck more money out of bills and into safer parts of the money market universe like the Fed's RRP, exacerbating broader market liquidity conditions. Related columns:- 'Peak Fed' aggravates U.S. debt ceiling strains- Inequality and 'deposit glut' sowed bank instabilityBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Gold rises as traders hunker down for economic cues
  + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spot gold was up 0.35% to $1,996.12 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled 0.34% higher at $2,006.60. The rival safe-haven dollar rose 0.5%, making bullion more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell by their largest amount since March. A weak U.S. consumer confidence report and lackluster manufacturing data fanned fears of economic slowdown, lowering the bets for a rate hike next week. While gold is considered a safe haven during economic uncertainties, higher interest rates dull appeal for zero-yield bullion. Traders also took stock of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's warning that failure by Congress to raise the government's debt ceiling would trigger an "economic catastrophe" that would send interest rates higher for years to come.
Yellen said the United States expected China to make good its pledge to work constructively on issues such as debt relief and climate change, noting that delays in restructuring raised costs for both borrowers and creditors. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday that the new Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable had made "tangible progress" on debt restructuring issues. "China's participation is essential to meaningful debt relief, but for too long it has not moved in a comprehensive and timely manner. The United States and China - as the world's largest economies - had a responsibility to work together to help emerging markets and developing countries facing debt distress, she said. Yellen said Washington was working with other stakeholders to improve the Group of 20's Common Framework process for low-income countries and the overall debt treatment process, adding, "Solving these issues is a true test of multilateralism."
Yellen, who said last week she still hopes to visit Beijing to meet with her new Chinese economic counterparts, will deliver remarks at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, the Treasury said in a statement. Yellen's speech will detail the Biden administration's economic priorities on China, including securing U.S. national security interests, fostering "healthy" competition and cooperating, where possible, on global issues such as climate change, debt relief and macroeconomic stability. Yellen also is expected to highlight U.S. economic strength. A Treasury official said the speech comes at an opportune time just after Yellen also spoke last week with counterparts from G7 democracies, Australia and New Zealand. Another audience for the remarks is China's new economic leadership team led by Liu's replacement, Vice Premier He Lifeng.
WASHINGTON, April 17 (Reuters) - Just a month after the biggest banking crisis in more than a decade, the world's top economic and financial policymakers gathered in Washington and said surprisingly little about financial system stability - at least publicly. Some officials conveyed a sense that banking system safety was further down the priority list of global economic problems. "But it's still something where we need to stay vigilant and address potential risks which may emerge in our financial system," Dombrovskis told reporters. He added that the European Union's banking system was stable, well capitalized with ample liquidity. But during the IMFC's closed meeting, the possible spillovers from financial stability risks were a main topic, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko told Reuters.
"They expect the Board of Executive Directors and World Bank Group management to finalize a work plan with detailed actions to be taken," the committee's chair said in a statement. Members underscored their commitment to "ensuring that the World Bank Group has adequate financial capacity to respond to development challenges and support its expanded mission." Yellen said upcoming events could be leveraged to keep momentum strong for the evolution of the World Bank. Malpass told the committee he felt the bank had responded with "vigor and speed" to Yellen's call for reforms. Development Committee members thanked Malpass for his leadership of the WBG during a historically challenging period, including an unprecedented surge in financing in response to multiple crises.
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