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The dollar index was down slightly at 103.29 in early trade, extending losses after Powell's comments on Tuesday, making oil cheaper for those holding other currencies. "If we have stronger than expected growth out of the developing world, (oil) prices will be firmer and OPEC will have to step up output. Supporting the market, weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed crude stocks fell by about 2.2 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 3, according to market sources. That defied expectations from nine analysts polled by Reuters, who had estimated crude stocks grew by 2.5 million barrels. The market will be looking to see if data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, due at 1530 GMT, confirms the decline in crude stocks.
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday showed net employment fell 14,600 in December from November, when it surged by a revised 58,200, and missed forecasts for an increase of 22,500. "The strong employment growth through 2022, along with high participation and low unemployment, continues to reflect a tight labour market," said Lauren Ford, head of labour statistics at the ABS. ABS data out this week showed net temporary arrivals jumped by 180,000 between July and November, the largest five-month increase on record. This includes those on skilled visas, temporary work visas and students. "It represents important progress in the alleviation of labour supply constraints which featured prominently in 2022," said Ryan Wells, an economist at Westpac.
The bank, however, maintained ultra-low interest rates, including its 0.5% cap for the 10-year bond yield. The dollar also gained 2.5% against the Japanese yen to 131.4 yen, in its biggest percentage daily rise since March 2020. In a Reuters poll, 97% of economists expected the BOJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy at the meeting. A survey of global fund managers by BofA Securities out on Tuesday showed that expectations of further appreciation in the Japanese yen in January were the highest in 16 years. The dollar index , which measures the safe-haven dollar against six peers, rose 0.4% at 102.84.
Australia consumer mood brightens for second month in a row
  + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SYDNEY, Jan 17 (Reuters) - A measure of Australian consumer sentiment rose in January for the second straight month, as a break in a painful cycle of interest rate rises likely provided temporary relief for borrowers. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment released on Tuesday rose 5.0% in January, the largest monthly gain since April 2021 and building on a gain of 3.0% in December. "If so, we should be cautious about reading the January sentiment rise as part of a continuing trend." The index of the economic outlook for the next 12 months jumped 10.2%, and the outlook for the next five years climbed 2.9%. A separate survey from ANZ also showed a small rise just last week, although the bank cautioned that spending data has turned weak in the first week of 2023.
Asia markets to trade mixed ahead of Chinese economic data
  + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
People take photographs against a backdrop of the Shenzhen skyline at Lianhuashan Park in Shenzhen, China, on Friday, Nov. 20, 2020. Photographer: Yan Cong/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets were set for a mixed session Tuesday as investors await a slew of Chinese economic data. Economists are expecting a quarterly contraction of 0.8% in the nation's gross domestic product and 1.8% annualized growth, according to a poll by Reuters. China's industrial output is expected to expand 0.2% on an annualized basis, while retail sales are estimated to contract by 8.6%, according to economists polled by Reuters. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% in its first hour of trade as the nation's Westpac consumer confidence rose 5% in December from 3% in November, Refinitiv data showed.
Yen rises in cautious calm after BOJ policy tweak
  + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The greenback, which rose 0.6% against the yen in the previous session, had failed to meaningfully recoup its 3.8% slump following Tuesday's news. "The BOJ opened the door, obviously, for further unwinding of its super-loose policies," said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac. Against the euro , the yen steadied at 140.27, while trading at 159.73 per pound . Sterling rose 0.14% against the dollar to $1.2102, after having slid 0.85% overnight. "In a world where risk sentiment is still very fragile, currencies whose countries have a twin deficit are at risk compared to others."
WELLINGTON, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Confidence in New Zealand has slumped in recent weeks, raising concerns the country might be headed toward a deeper recession than most have forecast. The December ANZ Consumer Confidence survey released earlier on Wednesday dropped to its lowest since it began in 2004 and followed on from the Westpac quarterly confidence survey on Monday which also recorded its lowest level since it began in 1988. The ANZ Business Confidence survey also reached a record low. "There can be no doubting the sombre economic mood across the nation at present," Bank of New Zealand Senior Economist Doug Steel said in a note. He said this slowdown was needed to cool inflation pressures but the business confidence survey did not show signs of cost pressures easing.
The cost of paying your mortgage is literally going up for everyone by thousands of dollars," said the 31-year-old Lemon. Australia's big four banks - Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), Westpac (WBC.AX), National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) and ANZ (ANZ.AX) - account for 75% of the country's mortgage market. read moreThe RBA fears 15% of the borrowers on variable rates could see their cash flows turn negative, assuming that interest rates rise to 3.6% in line with market expectations. Buyers' agent Lloyd Edge says some cautious mortgage holders have been selling up before their fixed-rate loans expire. Hundreds of thousands of Australians took advantage of the ultra low rates during the COVID pandemic to enter one of the world's least affordable housing markets.
The dollar tumbled as much as 2.78% to 133.11 yen , a level last seen on Aug. 16, before last trading 2.62% weaker at 133.345. It had been slightly stronger at about 137.40 yen ahead of the policy announcement. Eyes will now be trained on BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's media briefing later in the day for additional hints about a pivot away from ultra-easy policy. Most BOJ watchers had expected no changes until his 10-year term finishes at the end of March. "Unease over China's haphazard COVID policy changes also seems to be keeping a lid on AUD/USD," Callow added.
Yen on defensive before BOJ; NZ dollar sinks
  + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. New Zealand's dollar dropped after a big decline in a survey of local business confidence. The Aussie, though, was little changed after shrugging off minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's last policy meeting. Ten-year Treasury yields held at a one-week high of 3.601% in Tokyo trading. Those minutes reinforced the "uncertain outlook" for policy, providing an additional weight on the Australian dollar, said Sean Callow, a strategist at Westpac.
Here are some statistics about Australia's indebted households, the strength of which would be critical to the Reserve Bank of Australia's central scenario that the economy is headed for a soft landing next year. They now face a jump in interest rates to 5-6% when their fixed-rate loans expire next year, up from 2-3% currently. More than 40% of the borrowers took out fixed-rate loans at the peak of the market last year, compared with 15% before COVID. A third of fixed-rate loans will expire in 2024 and beyond. REPAYMENTS JUMPIn its financial stability review published in October, the RBA expects almost 60% of borrowers with fixed-rate loans would face an increase in their minimum repayments of at least 40%.
Tyro rejects $593 million bid from Potentia Capital
  + stars: | 2022-12-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Dec 12 (Reuters) - Australian payment terminals firm Tyro Payments (TYR.AX) on Monday rejected the revised proposal from private equity firm Potentia Capital of A$1.60 per share which values the company at A$875 million ($593.43 million). Tyro said the higher offer continues to undervalue the company. "The revised indicative proposal comes at a time of significant share market volatility and cyclical weakness in global technology and payment company valuations," the company said in a statement. Additionally, Westpac (WBC.AX) also ended its discussions with Tyro, saying that it was not in the best interests of its shareholders. The bank was among the three biggest banks in October that were considering a bid for the payment terminals firm, underscoring the importance of new revenue streams as rising interest rates batter the mortgage market.
Dec 6 (Reuters) - All of Australia's "big four" banks said on Tuesday they will raise their home loan rates by a quarter-point, passing on the central bank's eighth rate hike in as many months to their customers in full. Earlier on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points to a 10-year high of 3.1%, and reiterated that further policy tightening would be needed to contain inflation. The top four lenders, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group's (ANZ.AX) will hike their rates from the end of next week, while Westpac Banking Corp's (WBC.AX) hike will be effective December 20, the banks said in separate statements. However, heightened borrowing costs could impact credit demand, housing market, employment and economic growth, posing as challenges to the lenders. Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee and Echha Jain in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay Dwivedi and Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Nov 30 (Reuters) - Potential economic downturns caused by climate change could pose risks to the loan books of Australia's top five banks without resulting in any severe stress to the system and the economy, a risk study conducted by the country's banking regulator showed. With global focus sharply pivoting towards climate change, banks have come under increased scrutiny for their ties with fossil fuel projects, prompting them to set goals to cut emissions and raise investments in clean energy projects. These banks have "predicted they would adjust their risk appetite and lending practices, such as cutting back on high loan-to-valuation lending and reducing exposure to higher risk regions and industries", the regulator said. APRA will now consider how the assessment could be applied to other regulated industries and climate-related challenges, it said. ($1 = 1.4948 Australian dollars)Reporting by Sameer Manekar and Tejaswi Marthi in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh.V and Subhranshu SahuOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Australia's fourth-largest bank also said it would reduce exposure to its largest carbon-emitting customers that do not improve their emission transition plans by 2025. ANZ also disclosed that it would lower its scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2025 and 90% by 2030. "Our exposure to thermal coal will continue to decline in line with our existing commitments, which includes no longer onboarding any new business customers with material thermal coal exposures, or directly financing new thermal coal mines or power plants," ANZ said. In July, Westpac (WBC.AX) unveiled plans to reduce its lending to coal, oil and gas companies by nearly a quarter by 2030 to slash emissions. read more($1 = A$1.4786)Reporting by Tejaswi Marthi and Jaskiran Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Uttaresh.VOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
WELLINGTON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank is expected to deliver its biggest ever rate point hike this week as it continues efforts to temper inflation ahead of a three-month break. A Reuters poll found 15 of 23 economists expect the central bank to lift the cash rate by a record 75 basis points. HOME AND AWAYNew Zealand-based economists are more hawkish than their international counterparts, unanimously expecting the central bank to hike by 75 basis points. The central bank will also release new economic forecasts and potentially an updated cash rate track. "It all comes down to the language around the OCR (official cash rate) track and its shape," said Kiwibank in a note.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the official cash rate (OCR) by 75 basis points to 4.25%, its highest since January 2009. The RBNZ also increased the projected peak for the cash rate to 5.5% in September 2023 where it expects it to remain into 2024. The RBNZ has remained more hawkish than its Australia counterpart, which has slowed its rate increases in recent months. Wednesday's ninth straight hike means the cash rate has now risen 400 basis points since October 2021 and is the most aggressive tightening by the central bank since 1999 when the cash rate was introduced. Worrying the bank is non-tradeable inflation--or prices for goods that are not exposed to global markets--which is running at a record.
Reuters Poll: RBNZ monetary policy outlookThe largest banks in the country - ANZ, ASB, Kiwi Bank, Bank of New Zealand and Westpac - expect a 75 bp hike on Wednesday, matching the recent pace of the U.S. Federal Reserve. "We are forecasting the OCR to peak at 5.0%, via another 75 bp hike in February on a 'let's just get it done' basis. If data cools more rapidly than expected the RBNZ could well slow the pace at that point." Rates were expected to peak at 4.75% and remain unchanged until the end of next year, according to the median view in the poll. According to the latest RBNZ survey, inflation is expected to ease only modestly over the coming year and will be higher than previously predicted.
The dollar index , which measures the currency against six counterparts including the yen, euro and sterling, edged 0.03% higher to 107.00 early in the Asian day. The index held onto gains made on Monday when it rebounded from a three-month low of 106.27 hit on Friday. The dollar gained 0.34% to 140.40 yen , adding to its 0.84% overnight rebound from a 2 1/2-month low of 138.46. The euro was little changed at $1.03215 following its retreat from a three-month high of $1.0364. The offshore Chinese yuan was little changed at 7.0461 per dollar, after hitting a more than five-week high of 7.0200 in the previous session.
Nov 14 (Reuters) - Three of Australia's 'big four' banks settled separate class action lawsuits for A$126 million ($84.51 million) with Slater & Gordon (SGH.AX), who took the banks to court two years ago over sale of credit insurance products, the companies said on Monday. Law firm Slater & Gordon in 2020 filed class action lawsuits against Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX), and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ.AX) on behalf of around one million customers. ANZ, along with QBE Insurance, and OnePath Life and OnePath General Insurance, indirect units of Swiss firm Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.S), will pay a total of A$47 million to their customers under the settlement, with ANZ contributing A$42 million, Slater & Gordon said. Westpac would pay A$29 million, subject to court's approval. ($1 = 1.4910 Australian dollars)Reporting by Sameer Manekar in Bengaluru; editing by Diane Craft and Rashmi AichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The banks are now less conservative in counting expected rental income when assessing loan applications, said the four sources. In September, about a third of new bank mortgage lending was for investment. On Nov. 12, NAB will also halve its discount on rental income to 10%, including for Airbnb-like short-term rentals, the sources said. NAB, Westpac and ANZ trail market leader Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), which has a quarter of the mortgage market. Commonwealth continues to apply a rental income discount of 20% on mortgage applications, a sixth source said.
Oil steadies after 3% drop on demand fears
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Sonali Paul | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
MELBOURNE, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices were mostly unchanged in early trade on Wednesday, after sliding 3% in the previous session on worries about demand stalling on potential new lockdowns in top oil importer China as COVID-19 cases rebound. Brent crude futures rose 2 cents to $95.38 a barrel by 0126 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 4 cents to $88.87 a barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by about 5.6 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 4, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. By comparison, seven analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 1.4 million barrels. In another bearish sign, API data showed gasoline inventories rose by about 2.6 million barrels, against analysts' forecasts for a 1.1 million drawdown.
[1/2] A National Australia Bank (NAB) logo is pictured on an automated teller machine (ATM) in central Sydney September 12, 2014. The country's second-largest lender also warned that economic uncertainty created by rising interest rates owing to soaring inflation could challenge some customers, however, said it expects strong employment conditions and substantial home and business savings helping it weather the impact. NAB forecasts a steep decline in business and housing lending volumes in fiscal 2023 in Australia, with business credit growth seen decelerating to 3.6% from 14.7% in fiscal 2022. NAB, the country's biggest business lender, recorded strong growth in its business and home lending during the year ended September, with windfall benefit from rising interest rates boosting its cash earnings to A$7.10 billion ($4.62 billion). That compares with A$6.56 billion reported a year earlier and analysts' estimate of A$7.08 billion, according to Refinitiv Eikon.
SYDNEY, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Australia's Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX) has mandated banks to work on two- and five-year U.S. dollar bond issuances, according to a term sheet reviewed by Reuters. Westpac raised A$2.8 billion ($1.82 billion) in an Australian-dollar-denominated bond on Monday, domestic media said. The bank plans to issue in U.S. dollars a two-year fixed rate bond, a two-year floating rate note, and a five-year fixed rate transaction, the term sheet showed. The final pricing is due to be set later in the New York trading session on Wednesday, subject to market conditions, according to the term sheet. Westpac planned to use the U.S. dollar proceeds from the bonds for general corporate purposes, the term sheet showed.
3 lender Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX) on Monday reported a drop in annual earnings, hit by a charge on the sale of its life insurance unit, and raised cost guidance as it flagged lower home prices and higher unemployment into 2023. Westpac revised its target for costs incurred to A$8.6 billion ($5.52 billion) by fiscal 2024 from a prior target of A$8 billion, citing wage increases from a tight labour market and continued regulatory costs. Westpac's cost target excludes its specialist business and some other items. Analysts at Citi said this implies a total cost base of A$9.2 billion for fiscal year 2024, which consensus estimates have already priced in. Shares of the lender fell over 3% to A$23.38, while the broader market (.AXJO) was up 0.5%.
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