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☆ Russia’s Victory Day Expected to Be Muted This Year
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Ann M. Simmons | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Video posted on social media appeared to show a drone crashing into the Kremlin complex. Photo: Ostorozhno Novosti via ReutersRussia’s Victory Day, the country’s most important civic holiday, is this year shaping up to be a sober reminder of Moscow’s battlefield struggles in Ukraine as the threat of drone attacks and sabotage at home limits the scope of official commemorations and parades. It is a stark difference from last May when Russian President Vladimir Putin used the celebrations marking the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany to rally public support for his decision for Russia to invade its smaller neighbor, declaring Russia “a great invincible power.”

☆ Ukraine general: Russia hopes to capture Bakhmut by Tuesday, steps up fighting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 8 (Reuters) - Russia has intensified shelling of Bakhmut hoping to take it by Tuesday, Ukraine's top general in charge of the defence of the besieged city said late on Sunday, vowing to do everything to prevent it. Victory Day in Russia is May 9, one of the country's most commemorated public holidays marking the anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany. Moscow sees Bakhmut as a stepping stone to attacking other Ukrainian cities. Kyiv has said before that keeping the defence of Bakhmut, allows for the military to prepare its expected counteroffensive. Reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Security worries overshadow Russia's Victory Day preparations
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Gareth Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But several Russian regions have already scaled back events, citing concerns that they could be targeted by pro-Ukrainian saboteurs. The Soviet Union lost 27 million people in World War Two, more than any other country. Putin's office linked what it called the "terrorist" drone attack on the Kremlin in the early hours of May 3 to the Victory Day parade, which takes place below the walls of the ancient citadel. Kyiv has said it expects increased efforts by Russian forces to take the devastated eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut ahead of Moscow's Victory Day celebrations. In Soviet times, Victory Day commemorations were more low-key, with the emphasis on honouring veterans and their huge sacrifices, which are seared into older Russians' folk memory.

☆ Ukraine conflict: Kyiv says it stopped a missile Russia said was unstoppable
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Tim Lister | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

An air-launched ballistic missile, the Kh-47 has a range of some 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), so can be fired far from the battlefield. It travels at about 10 times the speed of sound and is derived from the shorter-range Iskander ballistic missile, which is ground launched. Ukrainian intelligence believes Russia has only a few dozen Kinzhal missiles in its arsenal – a claim which couldn’t be independently verified. In April, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said Patriot systems had arrived from the US, Germany and the Netherlands. The Patriots provide a modern dimension to Ukraine’s air defense layers, as does the German IRIS-T system.

☆ Russia's war on Ukraine latest: Wagner Group threatens to exit Bakhmut
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WAGNER* Standing in a field of corpses, Russian Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin published an expletive-ridden video personally blaming top defence chiefs for losses suffered by his fighters. * However, Ukraine said Russia was bringing Wagner fighters from other parts of the front line to fight in Bakhmut. * Former Russian deputy defence minister Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev has joined the Wagner Group as a deputy commander, Russian pro-war social media channels reported. * Technical personnel from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations will meet on Friday to discuss the renewal of the deal, the Turkish Defence Minister said. QUOTES* "Because of the lack of ammunition, our losses are increasing exponentially every day," Wagner Group mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said.

☆ Russian Mercenary Leader Threatens to Pull Forces From Bakhmut Next Week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Neil Macfarquhar | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

“These are Wagner guys who died today; the blood is still fresh,” Mr. Prigozhin said, in a speech marked by frequent bleeped-out expletives. The Wagner chief has long criticized Russian military leadership openly, with some analysts attributing the tensions to rivalries for President Vladimir V. Putin’s favor. Mr. Prigozhin has never pointed a finger directly at Mr. Putin over Russia’s setbacks in the war. In February, Mr. Prigozhin accused Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov of treason, claiming they were starving Wagner of ammunition. The problem for Wagner was not a lack of ammunition, Mr. Cherevaty said, but a shortage of people to fight and die.

☆ Wagner Leader Threatens to Pull Out of Bakhmut: Russia-Ukraine War Live News
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Matt Surman | Ivan Nechepurenko | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Putin faces a deluge of bad news as Wagner says it will withdraw from frontline and Kremlin comes under attack
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Nick Paton Walsh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

And it will happen just after the May 9 Victory Day pomp and celebration, as, he insists, Wagner are patriots. But he has never said he will likely cripple one of Russia’s most symbolic frontlines by just walking away. Wagner forces would have to walk out of a battlefield which is – on the surface – for the most part controlled by Putin’s Ministry of Defense. Putin is absorbing a lot of bad vibes at the moment to seem that much in control. It is unlikely that any fissures at the heart of the Kremlin would be made public before they were acted upon.

"If, because of your petty jealousy, you do not want to give the Russian people the victory of taking Bakhmut, that's your problem," Prigozhin added in the video. A senior Ukrainian official said Russia was bringing Wagner mercenary fighters from along the front line to Bakhmut to capture it by Victory Day. In another sign of disarray on the Russian side, former Russian deputy defence minister Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev joined Wagner as a deputy commander, Russian pro-war social media channels reported. Earlier, Prigozhin was pictured surrounded by corpses he said were his men, shouting abuse at Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Moscow accused Ukraine of firing drones at the Kremlin in the early hours of Wednesday in an attempt to kill Putin.

☆ Russia is using the supposed Kremlin drone strike as an excuse to scale back its Victory Day celebrations and hide its military losses, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is reducing its large-scale Victory Day parades, which are used to show its military strength. Experts said it is using an alleged Kremlin drone strike as an excuse to scale them back. But Russia likely wants to conceal its military losses in Ukraine, the ISW said. The ISW said the Kremlin "likely hopes to limit typical May 9 events to conceal the degradation of the Russian military." Russian T-90M and T-14 Armata tanks parade through Red Square during the rehearsal of the Victory Day military parade on May 7, 2022.

It also highlights Russian frustration at failing to complete the capture of Bakhmut after more than nine months of costly, intense battle. ANGRY TIRADEWhat looked real, however, was Prigozhin's fury at Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. "If Putin wants him to be in combat, he'll force him in one way or another to do so." Marten said its involvement in the battle for Bakhmut, including fighters recruited from Russian prisons, had allowed Putin to avoid declaring a full-scale mobilization. Whatever its immediate intentions around Bakhmut, Wagner is likely to remain a significant player in the war, given Prigozhin's personal ambitions and determination to stay in the limelight.

☆ Ukraine says Moscow deploying Wagner fighters to Bakhmut from elsewhere
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Pavel Polityuk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

KYIV, May 5 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Friday Russia was bringing Wagner mercenary fighters from other parts of the front line to fight in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, and that Moscow wanted to capture the city in time for Victory Day celebrations next week. Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said his mercenary forces would pull out of Bakhmut on May 10 because of heavy losses and inadequate ammunition supplies. "We are now seeing them pulling (fighters) from the entire offensive line where the Wagner fighters were, they are pulling (them) to the Bakhmut direction," Maliar said in televised comments. Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries have spearheaded Russia's months-long assault on Bakhmut in the industrial Donbas region. He has regularly accused Russia's military top brass of incompetence.

May 4 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble climbed to a more-than-one-month high on Thursday, gaining for a fifth straight session, as oil prices staged a partial recovery, countering the impact of reduced foreign currency supply. By 0923 GMT, the rouble was 1% stronger against the dollar at 78.44 , its strongest mark since April 3. The rouble has also benefited with a lag from high oil prices throughout April, which translates to higher export revenues for Russian exporters. Russian stocks are unlikely to see any serious buying interest before Russia's long weekend, said Sinara Investment Bank analysts. Geopolitics are partly to blame for Russian stocks' recent decline, while investors globally fear recession, hence the sustained drop in Brent, Sinara said.

☆ Opinion: Whatever happened in the skies over Putin’s fortress, one thing is certain
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Opinion Frida Ghitis | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. (The following day, the Kremlin also accused the US of involvement in the alleged attack, which the US denies). What exactly happened over the presumably heavily fortified Kremlin – a word that means fortress in Russian – the seat of government and home to the president? Russia’s credibility, particularly concerning its war against Ukraine, has been crushed by its persistent lies. In the Immortal Regiment parade, hundreds of thousands of Russians take to the streets, many holding up photographs of their relatives who served the nation in World War II, the Great Patriotic War, as it is known there.

☆ Little would make sense about a drone attack on the Kremlin. Except this
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Jill Dougherty | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The Kremlin was slow to react, eventually releasing a statement calling it a “planned terrorist attack,” a deliberate attempt by Ukraine to assassinate Putin, but presenting no evidence. Even more embarrassingly for the Kremlin, how did the drones get so close to the Kremlin? Ukraine officials said the attacks might be exploited by Russia to launch even more vicious attacks on Ukraine, including “terrorist” attacks. What about the possibility that Russians opposed to Putin launched a drone attack from within Russia? This year, with drones apparently attacking the Kremlin, it may be harder than usual to feel victorious.

☆ There's big problems with the way the Kremlin drone incident went down, and war experts say Russia 'likely staged' it
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Mia Jankowicz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

However, a US think tank has said it was "likely" a Russian false flag operation. As military experts told Insider, many details of the incident — and ultimate responsibility for it — remain unconfirmed as of Thursday. The think tank pointed to geolocated images of Russia installing advanced Pantsir surface-to-air missile defense systems around Moscow earlier this year. The Russian defense ministry is also working to further bolster these capabilities by year-end. The Russian Defense and Foreign Ministries did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.

But until the Kremlin chose to publicize the incident around 12 hours later, social media footage of the incident had gained little attention. Moscow said the alleged attack took place in the early hours of Wednesday. Two “unmanned aerial vehicles” were intercepted and destroyed before they caused any damage or injury, the Kremlin said. Ostorozhno Novosti/ReutersShortly after the first media reports, another video appearing to show the moment a drone exploded above the Kremlin began circulating widely on social media. In the video, the apparent drone seems to fly towards the building’s domed roof, followed by what looks like a small explosion.

☆ Analysis: Kremlin drone incident gives Putin cover to deepen Ukraine war
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Andrew Osborn | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/3] The Russian flag flies on the dome of the Kremlin Senate building, while the roof shows what appears to be marks from the recent drone incident, in central Moscow, Russia, May 4, 2023. Inside Russia, it helped reinforce the Kremlin-backed narrative that its war in Ukraine is an existential one for the Russian state and people. "It's an attempt to gather all the sacred things in one statement," Alexander Baunov, a former Russian diplomat and Kremlin watcher, said of the Kremlin's response. Former president Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Solovyov, one of the most prominent pro-Kremlin TV commentators, both argued for precisely such action in the aftermath of the drone incident. An investigation into the drone incident is certain to uncover shortcomings in Russia's own air defences.

☆ Kremlin Blasts Were Real. The Rest Is Hazy, Maybe Intentionally.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Michael Schwirtz | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But whose outrage was real and whose was feigned? In this war, the battle over the narrative is as important as the battle in the field. While the Kremlin frequently lies and uses its powerful government-controlled media to craft alternative realities, Ukraine, too, has proved adept at bending the truth to serve its wartime agenda. Cutting through the competing narratives to get to the truth can prove to be a tricky thing, and that perhaps is the point. Was it a staged Russian provocation meant to justify still harsher attacks on the Ukrainian population, or perhaps against Ukraine’s leadership?

A day after blaming Ukraine for what it called a terrorist attack, the Kremlin administration shifted the focus onto the United States, but without providing evidence to support its accusation. He said the United States was "undoubtedly" behind the alleged attack and added - again without stating evidence - that Washington often selected both the targets for Ukraine to attack, and the means to attack them. Russia has said with increasing frequency that it sees the United States as a direct participant in the Ukraine war, intent on inflicting a "strategic defeat" on Moscow. CALLS TO KILL ZELENSKIYHowever, Peskov's allegation that the United States was behind a plot to kill Putin went further than previous Kremlin accusations against Washington. He said Russia had an array of options and the response, when it came, would be carefully considered and balanced.

☆ False flag? Analysts says Russia 'likely staged' Kremlin drone attack it blamed on Ukraine and the West
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Ukraine denied any involvement in the incident, with officials saying it more likely signaled that Russia was planning a large-scale terrorist attack against Ukraine in the coming days. The Kremlin went further in its accusations on Thursday, claiming that Washington had helped Ukraine to plot and orchestrate the drone attack. CNBC contacted the Kremlin for a response to claims that it was likely behind the drone attack itself. A view of the roof of Senate Palace of the Kremlin from Red Square on May 3, 2023 in Moscow, Russia. The Kremlin said the drone attack had taken place "on the eve of Victory Day, the May 9th Parade, at which the presence of foreign guests is also planned."

☆ Factbox: Kremlin drone incident: What do we know?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] A still image taken from video shows a flying object approaching the dome of the Kremlin Senate building during the alleged Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow, Russia, in this image taken from video obtained by Reuters May 3, 2023. Ostorozhno Novosti/Handout via REUTERSMay 3 (Reuters) - Here's a look at what we know about the alleged overnight drone attack on the Kremlin, and the questions it raises. Russia called the incident a terrorist attack and an attempt to assassinate President Vladimir Putin, for which it said it reserved the right to retaliate. "We don't attack Putin, or Moscow, we fight on our territory," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told a press conference in Helsinki. The incident comes at a moment of high tension and a potential turning point in the war, as Ukraine prepares to mount a long-anticipated counter-offensive.

☆ Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin by drone, Kremlin says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Shortly after the Kremlin announcement, Ukraine reported alerts for air strikes over the capital Kyiv and other cities. "The Russian side reserves the right to take retaliatory measures where and when it sees fit," the Kremlin added. "When the enemy can achieve nothing on the battlefield, it strikes at peaceful cities," Ukrainian military spokesperson Serhii Cherevatyi said. Elsewhere, oil depots were ablaze in southern Russia and Ukraine alike as both sides escalated a drone war ahead of Kyiv's promised spring counteroffensive against Russian forces. Blinken said later the U.S. government had authorised another $300 million worth of arms and equipment for Ukraine.

☆ Video appears to show smoke over Kremlin after alleged drone strike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MOSCOW, May 3 (Reuters) - A video circulating on Russian social media on Wednesday appeared to show a plume of smoke over Moscow's Kremlin, after what the presidential administration said was a Ukrainian drone attack aimed at President Vladimir Putin, who has a residence in the walled complex. The video was posted in the early hours of Wednesday on a group for residents of a neighbourhood that faces the Kremlin across the Mosvka River and picked up by Russian media, including the Telegram channel of the military news outlet Zvezda. Separately, the Kremlin said that the May 9 Victory Day parade would go ahead in Moscow despite the incident, the state-run TASS news agency reported. Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Kevin LiffeyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The Kremlin said Russia reserved the right to retaliate, and hardliners demanded swift retribution against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in comments sent to Reuters: "Ukraine has nothing to do with drone attacks on the Kremlin. Another video circulating on Russian social media appeared to show a plume of smoke over the Kremlin after the purported attack. Russia marks the occasion with a huge military parade on Red Square, for which seating has already been erected. Ukraine typically declines to claim responsibility for attacks on Russia or Russian-annexed Crimea, though Kyiv officials have frequently celebrated such attacks with cryptic or mocking remarks.

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