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☆ Oil prices bounce as China demand hopes offset recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Reopening of Chinese economy buoys demand hopesRising interest rates and recession fears weighU.S. to begin purchases for strategic reserveLONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday after tumbling by more than $2 a barrel in the previous session as optimism over the Chinese economy outweighed concern over a global recession. China, the world's top crude oil importer, is experiencing its first of three expected waves of COVID-19 cases after Beijing relaxed mobility restrictions but plans to step up support for the economy in 2023. Despite a surge in COVID cases, optimism over the reopening of the Chinese economy and its accommodative policy improve oil's demand outlook, said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng. The U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raised interest rates last week and promised more. "The prospect of further rate rises will hit economic growth in the New Year and in doing so curb demand for oil," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

☆ As Kuroda bows out, Bank of Japan's rising hawks eye end to unloved yield cap
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +12 min

PUBLIC DISCONTENTAfter a tumultuous year for the world's third-largest economy, Japan's central bank and its leadership face a critical moment. While ruling out the need to ditch the yield cap now, Takata recently said he saw positive developments in wage growth. "The BOJ must start worrying about the possibility of inflation accelerating more than expected," he told Reuters, adding the BOJ may abandon its yield cap as early as next year. Such a reaction was seen in March when the BOJ was forced to pledge unlimited bond buying to defend its yield cap from speculative market attacks. "That's why the BOJ won't provide advance signals and remove the yield cap in a single step."

☆ Regulators find deficiencies in Credit Suisse resolution plan, shortcomings in BNP Paribas plan
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] A Christmas tree is decorated in front of the headquarters of Swiss bank Credit Suisse in Zurich, Switzerland November 23, 2022. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann//File PhotoDec 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp identified two deficiencies in Credit Suisse’s so-called “living will” that details how the firm would be unwound in the event of bankruptcy related to the bank’s U.S. governance and cash flow forecasting. Banking regulators also identified a shortcoming, which is not as severe as a deficiency, in BNP Paribas’ resolution plan connected to the continuity in resolution of its securities repurchase agreement activity for the bank’s U.S. operations. Last month, the Fed and FDIC also said Citigroup Inc must remediate its living will, saying problems with the bank’s data governance could adversely affect its ability to produce timely and accurate data during a period of financial stress. Reporting by Hannah Lang in Washington, Editing by Franklin PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The worst of inflation is likely over, but the worst for the economy probably isn't
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

While the inflation rate is still extraordinarily high, there's widespread agreement that the peak has passed. In fact, the only sector where interest rate increases have seemed to hit so far has been housing. So with lots of policy tightening still in the pipeline, softer inflation's accompanying economic slowdown is yet to come. The Fed's critics worry that the rate increases may have gone too far and could be a severe weight on the economy once inflation wears off. However, following the CPI report traders priced in a lower "terminal rate," or end point for the Fed rate hikes.

☆ Dollar edges up, investors weigh outlooks for rates and economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Next week brings a raft of major central bank decisions, including those from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The key question for traders and investors is whether inflation has reached a peak, giving policymakers more scope to deliver smaller interest-rate rises over the coming months. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen almost continuously since hitting a 15-year high in late October, having shed almost a full percentage point. The 10-year yield was last up 5 bps at 3.45%, having neared is lowest in almost three months overnight. Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil drops, hits lowest since January as U.S. data fans fuel demand fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The build in fuel stocks outweighed a 5.2 million barrel draw in crude stocks. The American Petroleum Institute had reported a crude stocks draw of around 6.4 million barrels, according to market sources. China's crude oil imports in November rose 12% from a year earlier to their highest in 10 months, data showed. "If confidence in uninterrupted Russian oil supply has played any part in the recent weakness, it was probably misplaced. Tankers getting delayed in Turkish waters is a prime example of that," Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM said.

☆ Oil falls close to 2022 lows on economic worries, easing supply fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Warnings from big U.S. banks about a likely recession next year weighed, and supported the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to dampen appetite for risk assets. Fears were easing that the price cap on Russian crude could cause a supply shock. "Clearly, investors are not worried the least about any potential supply shortage that might be the result of the price cap and the EU ban on Russian oil sales." In focus is the latest U.S. supply report from the Energy Information Administration due at 1530 GMT and whether it confirms the large decline in crude stocks.

☆ The bear market isn't over, and drawdown has another 25% to go, Wolfe Research predicts
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors hoping that the 2022 bear market will subside next year are likely to be disappointed, according to Wolfe Research's outlook for 2023. The firm sees the slump in stocks continuing, and even falling further from trading prevailing prices. "The current bear market isn't over – we expect another 25% to 35% drawdown from current levels," analyst Chris Senyek wrote in a note Tuesday. Bear market signals There are multiple reasons that Senyek sees stocks falling further next year instead of rebounding into a new bull market. Wolfe's checklist Of the 10 items on Wolfe's "market bottom" checklist, none have definitively turned positive.

☆ Equity funds suffer biggest weekly outflow in three months - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Equity funds suffered a $14.1 billion outflow in the week to Wednesday in the largest exit in three months, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday. U.S. equity funds saw an $16.2 billion outflow, the biggest since April, the latest flow data from BofA also showed. Bond funds also saw outflows, to the tune of $2.4 billion, while cash funds attracted $31.1 billion inflows and gold funds added $59 million, BofA said citing EPFR data. In its weekly note, BofA noted that outflows from credit funds in 2022 of $316 billion have unwound all the inflows of 2021. It added that while equity funds have seen inflows this year of some $207 billion, this was down from the "euphoric inflows" seen last year.

☆ U.S. consumer spending solid in October; weekly jobless claims fall
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Asif Shahzad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3 after advancing by the same margin in September. In the 12 months through October, the PCE price index increased 6.0% after advancing 6.3% in September. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.2% after gaining 0.5% in September. The so-called core PCE price index climbed 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in October after increasing 5.2% in September. The annual consumer price index increased less than 8% in October for the first time in eight months.

☆ Nexperia and Elmos cases show how the US-China chip war is spilling over to Europe
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Last week, the new owner of Britain’s biggest chipmaker was ordered to unwind its takeover, just days after another chip factory sale was blocked in Germany. “These decisions mark a shift towards tougher stances regarding Chinese investment in critical industries in Europe,” said Xiaomeng Lu, director of geo‑technology at Eurasia Group. A worker in a clean room for silicon semiconductor wafer manufacturing at the Newport Wafer Fab, owned by Nexperia, in Newport, Wales on Aug. 18. A company sign of Elmos Semiconductor, seen on Nov. 9 in the German city of Dortmund. Both Britain and Germany have recently added rules that expand government oversight over such decisions, making outcomes harder to predict.

☆ Bank regulators tell Citigroup to take urgent action to fix resolution plan
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Hannah Lang | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The regulators gave Citi a January 2023 deadline to submit its plan to address the shortcomings, while giving the all clear to seven other large banks that submitted resolution plans. The problems related to earlier concerns the Fed had identified with Citi’s data quality and data management in an October 2020 enforcement action against the bank. Eric Compton, a banking analyst at Morningstar, said regulators often highlight data management issues at banks because they can be interrelated, potentially having wide-ranging impact. “Citi is not the first bank to have its resolution plan dinged," he said. Those problems related to the banks' abilities to produce data in stressed conditions to implement their resolution plans.

☆ Citigroup faulted by U.S. banking regulators for poor data management in 'living will' review
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Citigroup needs to address weaknesses in how it manages financial data, according to a review of the biggest banks' so-called living will plans, U.S. banking regulators said Wednesday. For the latest review, Citigroup was the only bank among the eight institutions that was found to have a shortcoming in its resolution plan, the regulators noted. Fraser has said that one of her main priorities was to address regulators' concerns and regain credibility with investors. In a statement, Citigroup said it was "completely committed" to addressing the shortcoming found in its 2021 resolution plan. "As part of the transformation Citi has embarked upon, we are making significant investments in our data integrity and data management, as the letter notes," the bank said.

☆ Goldman Sachs says U.S., Europe could end reliance on Chinese EV batteries by 2030 -FT
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 22 (Reuters) - The United States and Europe could cut their dependence on China for electric vehicle batteries through more than $160 billion of new capital spending by 2030, the Financial Times reported on Monday, citing a Goldman Sachs forecast. Goldman forecast that the U.S. market share of the Korean battery makers would soar to about 55% in three years, from 11% in 2021, FT said. For now, China dominates battery production, including the mining and refining of raw materials. The analysts said this dominance could be unwound by protectionist policies in Europe and the United States, coupled with alternative battery chemistries that require fewer critical minerals from China, FT reported. Reporting by Jahnavi Nidumolu in Bengaluru; Editing by Tom Hogue and Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Best Buy's jump on ho-hum earnings shows how unloved some retail stocks have become
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The tape remains firm, levitating toward the upper end of a tight range in place for a week and a half. Best Buy 's pop on a still-soft sales outlook shows how cheap and unloved some of the group's leading stocks have become, though understandably given how sellers of goods over-earned the prior couple of years. It also shows upside risk, as managers might be forced to chase, though other gauges suggest more a hopeful stance by retail (decent stock inflows recently). There's a way to tell the story of 2022 as a year of concentrated, productive payback and reset.

☆ 3 senators call for DOJ to potentially unwind the Ticketmaster and Live Nation merger: 'High prices and labyrinth-like ticketing process for Taylor Swift's Eras tour are clear examples of the harms co
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"The high prices and labyrinth-like ticketing process for Taylor Swift's Eras tour are clear examples of the harms consumers face in an anti-competitive ticketing market," the senators write. Live Nation Entertainment has said that it "does not engage in behaviors that could justify antitrust litigation, let alone orders that would require it to alter fundamental business practices." The DOJ and Live Nation Entertainment did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment on the letter. UMAW is also pushing for the merger between Live Nation and Ticketmaster to be unwound. Put simply, artists, venues, and consumers should no longer be at the mercy of a single seller."

☆ Oil falls on easing geopolitical tensions, China demand outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Thankfully, those fears have abated and the situation de-escalated, which has seen oil gains unwound," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. Brent crude fell $2.13 to $90.73 a barrel, a 2.3% loss, by 10:58 a.m. China reported rising daily COVID-19 infections and Chinese refiners have asked to reduce Saudi crude volume in December, Reuters has reported, while also slowing Russian crude purchases. "Struggling Chinese consumption is embodied in sinking domestic need for both Russian and Saudi crude oil," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. Oil gained some support from official figures that U.S. crude stocks fell by a bigger than expected 5 million barrels in the most recent week.

The surge in stocks and bonds, and steep dollar slide last week sparked one of the biggest loosening of financial conditions in decades. "We see this as another example of the inherent challenges that come from trying to slow the pace of hikes without easing financial conditions." chartchartEvery time investors and traders begin to price a Fed 'pivot', market conditions loosen, and inflationary pressures rise. Policy decisions affect financial conditions immediately, but the full effects of changing financial conditions on inflation are felt much later, Powell told reporters. Related columns:- Fed 'pivot' draws closer, but the word has had its day (Nov. 11)- China reopening may add inflation headache (Nov. 9)- Hedge funds capitulate on Fed pivot (Nov. 6)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ British government to usher in new era of austerity in effort to restore market confidence
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

We're going to see spending cuts," Hunt told the BBC on Sunday, while also promising the government would deliver a new and more focused plan to help with household energy bills beyond April. First, an increase in council tax with local authorities allowed to raise the level of council tax above 3% without a referendum," Raja said. "And second, an increase in both the duration and scale of the windfall tax on oil and gas 'excess profits'." Spending cuts, again executed via "stealth," could take the form of "nominal cash freezes to departmental budgets," Raja said, with spending budgets topped up minimally going forward. "If he wants to reassure the markets, he will have to announce early action in the form of a big fiscal tightening.

☆ New FTX CEO Unwound Enron and Other Major Corporate Failures
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Jonathan Randles | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The executive tapped to lead FTX through the biggest cryptocurrency bankruptcy in history has helped recover billions of dollars for creditors of Enron Corp., Nortel Networks and other major companies that have collapsed over the last two decades. John J. Ray III was appointed chief executive of FTX just before the crypto exchange plunged into chapter 11 bankruptcy and founder Sam Bankman-Fried resigned. Mr. Ray is now tasked with investigating FTX’s sudden collapse and unwinding an enterprise with more than 130 corporate...

What this portends for stocks going into year end is unclear, but given how low volatility is just now it is reasonable to assume investor demand for protection and hedging will rise. Afraid of missing out on a year-end rally, investors are now paying a premium for equity 'call' options over 'puts'. Benchmark volatility gauges like the VIX index of implied vol on the S&P 500 or the V2TX index of implied vol on euro stocks rise when demand for put options spikes. The VIX has fallen recently to near a two-month low even as the S&P 500 has surged into the green and lurched back into the red. By mid-October the S&P 500 was down 25% and ripe for a bounce.

☆ BoE's Bailey confirms decrease in bond purchase cap
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Hannah McKayLONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that the maximum size of the BoE's Asset Purchase Facility holdings can now be lowered to 886 billion pounds from 966 billion pounds, after the conclusion of emergency purchases last month. The BoE bought 19 billion pounds of long-dated and index-linked government bonds last month to halt a fire sale of assets by pension funds following former prime minister Liz Truss's mini-budget. Britain's finance ministry - which indemnifies the BoE against losses on its bond portfolio - approved a 100 billion pounds increase in the maximum size of the APF to 966 billion pounds, in case greater purchases were needed. Bailey, in a letter to finance minister Jeremy Hunt on Friday, said this could now be lowered to 80 billion pounds and would fall further as the BoE unwound its quantitative easing purchases. The BoE also aimed to sell the 19 billion pounds of long-dated and index-linked gilts in a "timely but orderly" way, Bailey wrote.

☆ Outgoing Charter CEO Tom Rutledge says in an exclusive CNBC interview that there's 'pain to come' as linear TV gives way to streaming
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Alex Sherman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +33 min

The biggest cable company in the industry at that time had about a million customers. And the second question is, very much related to that, for years now, the bull investor thesis has been broadband growth. So does that mean that broadband growth is no longer the big growth story it once was? No, I think there's plenty of broadband growth to get for us and there's continued broadband adoption to get for the whole industry. And I think there's some value in scale which can translate into consumer value as well.

☆ Credit Suisse says this is a bear market rally that's about to fail right here
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The stock market's rally looks like it is running out of gas, according to Credit Suisse. "The S & P 500 has extended its recovery back above its 200-week average and we look for strength to our corrective target zone 3900/4000. The S & P 500 closed at 3,856.10 on Tuesday. Wall Street is coming off a strong October, in which the S & P 500 gained 7.99%. Credit Suisse has a three-month forecast for the S & P 500 of 3,500, and a 12-month forecast of 3,650.

And Italy's UniCredit (CRDI.MI) raised its 2022 profit goal, helped by higher interest rates and lower loan loss provisions that also drove quarterly earnings above forecasts. For years, banks bemoaned ultra loose monetary policy, but now higher interest rates means banks can start to benefit from the increased gap between what they charge borrowers and what they pay savers. Standard Chartered's third-quarter profit surged 40% as higher interest rates boosted the emerging markets-focused bank's income, giving it ammunition to upgrade its revenue outlook despite a weakening global economy. For Santander, higher loan loss provisions in key markets like Brazil and the United States overshadowed better than expected third-quarter earnings. While benefiting from higher interest rates, banks also face the unwinding of a scheme that buoyed their profits for years.

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